STOCKCHASE

Financial problem with this company. Had a big convertible debenture issue overhanging them. Solved this with a note to pay off a bunch of it and as soon as they did that, the stock ran further. Have a pretty big decline rate and an over leveraged balance sheet. Has run as most as it is going to do and will go sideways. Could be a candidate for going down more than the average energy stock.

2012-02-06

BUY

15.250

Bill Carrigan

Had a down trend until Oct/11. Had a first advance in October followed by a Wave Elliot. These 3rd waves can go on for quite a while. Could go to about $18 followed by another correction.

2012-01-27

WEAK BUY

15.740

Has been less than happy with in the past. It really got a way from its basic business. It was over levered. They also came out with predictions on declines in the wells they were drilling that the analysts didn’t buy. They are coming out with pretty good numbers now. Thinks it will make some progress on the upside. He is not super positive and would like to see more of the results. Likes CPG better.

2012-01-20

BUY

13.830

Douglas Kee

Light oil, which is attractive. They have a stretched balance sheet, so he owns CPG. Descent yield that they can maintain.

2012-01-12

BUY on WEAKNESS

13.020

Has been a real dog over the last year. Worries about a cut in the dividend may have been the principal reason. Also had some production related issues. Instituted a DRIP program so he feels they have kind of papered over the problem. Wouldn't buy it here, but if you could get it at $10 it could look attractive. Keep in mind that they have an enormous amount of convertible bonds that roll over in 2013.

2011-12-23

HOLD

10.570

Has high dividends, which he likes. Tremendous cash flows. The parent, Petrobank (PBG-T) wants them to continue with their dividends. Production is up 23% year-over-year and expected to be up 15% next year.

2011-12-13

HOLD

10.310

Numbers have been improving and it now looks quite cheap. Multiples look quite reasonable. Trading right on its NAV.

2011-12-09

DON'T BUY

9.960

Christine Poole

Has badly underperformed all of the other energy names and she does not know why. Have a convertible bond coming due next year also.

2011-12-01

DON'T BUY

9.680

Not bullish on this company or its parent Petrobank (PBG-T). Both companies are challenged. There is some real concern. Has overpromised and under delivered. If you own a, you can continue to hold for a better exit point.

2011-11-15

Comment

8.010

Christine Poole

Has looked at it in the past. Have not been able to deliver on production targets. She wants to talk to management before making a decision to buy.

2011-10-12

WAIT

8.190

Will probably not survive in its current form. Will at last have to sell some assets. Eventually the dividend could get cut. He doesn’t see how it goes forward in its current form.

2011-09-28

BUY on WEAKNESS

10.480

Robert Lauzon

Saw compelling value about a month ago. Market is worried about debt levels. Looks like they are on tack for this year. Pays a nice yield. Below $15 is represent good value.

2011-09-12

DON'T BUY

11.940

Douglas Kee

Not sure how sustainable the dividends are.

2011-08-29

DON'T BUY

10.800

Not one of his favourites. Company is just a little too promotional for his liking. Started off as one of the developers in the Bakken fields in North Dakota but have gone off in other areas. Got into the flood system to extract more oil but this seems to have faded into the background.

2011-08-19

DON'T BUY

11.130

The dividend should be in total jeopardy. The company is using debt to pay it. Totally unsustainable. Yielding 8.6%.

2011-08-16

Comment

14.310

Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

High quality company. Everything on a fundamental basis looks excellent. When the cycle turns back, you are going to want to own it.

2011-07-19

HOLD

12.400

Has disappointed repeatedly in terms of production. Wed weather earlier this year was a problem. He doesn’t see any catalyst for this name. It’s an execution problem – a “show me”

2011-07-18

HOLD

12.590

Jim Huang

Spent a lot of money getting land and into the Cardium oil play. Results so far have not been good. Stock has dropped so much it is no longer expensive and at some point could become a takeover target. Wouldn't short. Would like to see some operational momentum before abandoning.

2011-07-13

SELL

12.770

Has a lot of production in south east Saskatchewan, which had a VERY wet quarter. They have the newest wells so has the highest decline rate and are affected the most in the quarter. He switched to LEG-T. Market is not paying PBN for the high yield (7.5% today) so he thinks they should cut it and use the cash. There is a disappointing quarter coming. He sold. It is a short term sell.

2011-07-12

DON'T BUY

14.020

Laura Lau

Bought Cardium land at a very expensive price. Difficult for them to grow because their 40%-50% decline rates are so high. Production of 40,000-41,000 in Q1 and could be 37,000. Weather has been very difficult in southeast Saskatchewan. Really should cut their distributions.

2011-07-05

DON'T BUY

13.070

Prakash Hariharan

He would prefer Crescent Point (CPG-T). They both operate in the Bakken fields, but Crescent point is the more aggressive of the two. They have been quagmired in their balance sheet and he would worry that they might suspend their dividends.

2011-06-29

HOLD

15.220

A sad story. Sill paying a good dividend, about 5%, which not common in the oil patch. The group has had some challenges and some good history. Its performance simply has not been good. Feels they will favour keeping the dividend in place. All you can do is wait.

2011-06-14

SELL

15.260

Been a disaster. Overpaid for Cardium assets. Paying dividend not supported by cash flow. Avoid this stock.

2011-06-08

DON'T BUY

15.790

Peter Brieger

Would stay away until he saw some good solid progress with cash flow, etc.

2011-06-02

SELL

16.370

Not a fan. Got over promoted. Got into some water flood approach that didn’t seem to work that well. Looking at a tightening financial situation and have to make some tough choices. Will be an underperformer and is a tax loss candidate.

2011-05-27

DON'T BUY

16.260

Don Vialoux

Just had a breakdown a few days ago. Distinct downward trend so stay away for now. Seasonally you want to buy oil stocks around the beginning of November. The real sweet spot is beginning of January until the end of April.

2011-05-13

PAST TOP PICK

15.710

(A Top Pick April 12/10. Down 37.59%.) Sold last summer. Have very high decline rates.

2011-05-11

WAIT

16.290

Met with management about 3 weeks ago. Believes there is hope. This is just about the quarter – this or next quarter. Anyone that is in southeast Saskatchewan has had problems drilling because things are so wet. It is delaying production. They have a lot of drilling and a higher than average decline rate. Thinks third and forth quarters will be good for them and stock now yields over 6%.

2011-05-10

BUY on WEAKNESS

17.140

Laura Lau

New in the Pembina/Cardium area and with newer productions you have higher declines. Theirs is about 40%. They have to spend a lot more money to maintain production. Weather created problems for them last year. Would like it at $16.

2011-05-09

BUY

17.140

Robert Lauzon

Just started buying in the $17-$18 range. Comfortable that things are turning. Will probably have a sloppy Q2 because of weather conditions. Expect they will exit the year at production rates that meet expectations. Looking for $21-$22 by year end. 5.5% yield.

2011-05-09

WEAK BUY

17.240

Has been chipping away at this one below $20. His view was that if he were going to own a Bakken play with significant scale, it was going to be Crescent Point (CPG-T). Saw Petrobakken as having fringier, lower quality assets with higher declines. Paid too much to get into the Cardium play in Alberta. More attractive in the high teens.

2011-05-04

DON'T BUY

17.960

Jaime Carrasco

Shed his position awhile ago because he thinks production growth has topped out.

2011-04-29

DON'T BUY

17.750

Peter Brieger

Compared it to CPG 2 years ago and something wasn’t right so he has left it alone. He is going to take another look.

2011-03-14

WAIT

22.230

Bottom line is improving with high commodity prices. Are in the penalty box because of disappointments. Thy keep setting the bar too high and can’t get over it. They are getting it together but it is too early to be an aggressive buyer.

2011-03-04

HOLD

22.150

Involved in the Bakken and the Cardium in Alberta. He prefers Crescent Point (CPG-T) in the Bakken. Numbers have not been that great. Probably a good long play in the Cardium.

2011-02-25

WATCH

22.150

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Started as a Bakken oil player in Saskatchewan and have now diversified into Alberta. Stock was in a downtrend for quite some time but now stabilizing. Valuation is not too bad on a cash flow basis. Fighting some declines in some of their Bakken production and she is monitoring to see if she will invest in it.

2011-02-25

PAST TOP PICK

21.800

(A Top Pick Match 15/10. Down 14.72%.) Was incredibly wet in both quarters in SE Saskatchewan last year and all drilling got delayed. Started drilling again in the fall and were 11 for 11 by December. Still a Hold.

2011-02-16

PAST TOP PICK

21.190

(A Top Pick Dec 16/09. Down 29.17%.) Sold his holdings.

2011-02-10

HOLD

21.290

Laura Lau

Have not performed well lately. Paid a lot of money for companies without a lot of resources. There are questions if current management is the team to take it to the next level. A “show me” story. Decline rate in production is about 40%-50%, which is very high. 4.5% yield. Starting to look interesting.

2011-02-09

BUY

21.860

Michael Decter

Made some acquisitions and he feels they paid a fair price. Decent dividend. Good Buy at this price. Great growth potential as well as some takeover prospects.

2011-02-03

WEAK BUY

21.200

Cheap and looks like an attractive entry point but has been operationally disappointing. Not as good a landmass in the Bakken as Crescent Point (CPG-T). You could Buy and possibly have 15%-20% upside over the course of the next year but he is skeptical.

2011-01-17

Comment

20.630

Originally started off in the Bakken area and then bought into the Cardium play in Alberta. Initial numbers were disappointing. Recently looks like they have got the right technique. (Prefers Crescent Point (CPG-T), which is also into the Cardium.)

2010-12-17

DON'T BUY

19.170

Peter Brieger

An under performer. Had considered buying but didn’t and is glad he didn’t. He will wait until he sees them turning the corner.

2010-12-15

Comment

19.550

John Zechner

Likes the growth and the growth in the light oil Bakken area. Prefers to own through Petrobank (PBG-T). (See Top Picks.)

2010-12-03

Comment

19.100

Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Had a tough year. A tax-loss selling candidate and he’ll be looking at this fairly seriously going into the tax loss-selling season. (To Buy? Ed.) Likes it. Have few accounts that own a little bit.

2010-12-01

DON'T BUY

18.680

Christine Poole

Doesn’t know management. Have had problems delivering on their production guidance. Prefers Crescent Point (CPG-T).

2010-11-29

BUY

18.740

Have had a few production set backs, most recent weather related. On valuation, it’s extremely enticing right now. Management over promised and under delivered so it’s in the penalty box.

2010-11-26

HOLD

18.950

Brendan Caldwell

Hasn’t done as well as other Bakken plays and he doesn’t know why. Great dividend of about 5%. Great properties. Has a good shot at doing better.

2010-11-25

BUY

18.960

5.1% yield, which is a surprise for him. Doesn’t know if this will be maintained. Has done quite a bit of Buying in the Bakken and perhaps in the Cardium. Good company and if you are patient this could be a good buying point.

2010-11-22

BUY

19.510

Bill MacLachlan

Significant position in the Bakken play in Saskatchewan. Reasonable value. Have some concerns for longer term on the price of oil. As a small portion of a portfolio, it is a reasonable entry.

2010-11-17

DON'T BUY

20.170

A “show me” situation. Would prefer Crescent Point (CPG-T). Have been missing production targets on a fairly regular basis and took a run at some Cardium properties in Alberta that investors weren’t too happy with.

2010-11-12

STRONG BUY

20.170

Just reported and numbers were weak but a lot of their drilling locations are in southeast Saskatchewan. Record rainfall and all kinds of difficulty getting to the drilling. Cardium play looks quite intriguing and next couple of quarters should be quite good..

2010-11-12

SELL

20.600

Longer term it looks interesting but he needs a better understanding of the decline rates. Decline rates now are closing in on 40%, making it difficult for them to grow. Spending a lot on exploration in the Cardium with some results being just OK. Needs to see some improvement out of the Cardium.

2010-11-10

DON'T BUY

22.840

The assets are not of the quality of Crescent point. It will be a challenge for them. It looks interesting at the $19 range.

2010-10-22

Comment

23.050

Don Short

Great job of assembling oil assets. Main focus was Bakken. Did a terrific job of growing organically with an aggressive drilling program but aggressive drilling programs give you a very high decline rate. Some renewed interest in the company now. Moved into the Cardium via a number of relatively expensive acquisitions that are starting to show some good success.

2010-09-22

Comment

22.600

Cheap. Petrobank (PBG-T) would be a better way to play it as they hold an interest in this plus Petrominerales (PMG-T). The problem with this stock was that they had over promised and under delivered.

2010-09-21

WAIT

21.940

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Large footprint in the Saskatchewan one Bakken play. Large land position through consolidation. Valuation was a little rich and is now starting to be an averagely valued stock. Would like to see continued operation improvements and for the stock price to settle.

2010-09-13

HOLD

20.130

It is cheap. Everyone will look at it and say it is attractive that way. They haven’t put up the quality of numbers over time. Don’t buy any more. If they can show some reasonable production, then it will be different.

2010-08-31

Comment

20.130

Prefers Crescent Point Energy (CPG-T), which has better land position, better depth of inventory and better economics. Has some pretty significant drilling catalysts in the Cardium to come this fall, so wouldn't count them out yet.

2010-08-31

DON'T BUY

20.060

Don Vialoux

Seasonality for oil stocks basically starts 3rd week in November and goes higher right through to the 1st week in May. The real sweet spot is from the end of January to the 1st week in May. Technically, the chart on this one does not look good.

2010-08-27

WAIT

19.840

Performance bad because they spend a lot of money on land and because oil price is down. It was a wet spring and summer and so they could not ramp up their drilling program. Is holding on before buying more – wait for more data to be available.

2010-08-24

HOLD

20.690

Michael Decter

Has been a disappointment so far but he is still holding. If it doesn't do something by Christmas, it may make the top of his tax-loss selling list. Has been a concern that management has been paying too much for land.

2010-08-16

HOLD

22.220

Probably too over enthusiastic at the beginning so original hype has worn off and it is now back to normal. Drilling almost as many wells in the Cardium area as they are in the Bakkens. 4% dividend.

2010-08-06

DON'T BUY

22.710

A Bit disappointing. Has made acquisitions and now you need to see results.

2010-07-29

HOLD

23.260

Has upside from here. Trading at a number of multiple points below Crescent Point (CPG-T) which is also in the Bakken. This is something you can hold onto. Looking for a minimum of 20% upside in the course of a year.

2010-07-23

HOLD

22.980

One of his picks tonight is CPG. Started out very popular and then missed some of their production objectives. Moved to another section (Cardium). Wet Spring. Properties are not quite as good as CPG. Stock is oversold.

2010-07-22

Comment

21.470

Dennis Da Silva

45,000 BOEs a day. Driven towards per unit growth. Around 3% yield. Prefers Crescent Point (CPG-T) but likes their parent Petrobank (PBG-T).

2010-07-13

HOLD

22.030

Market feels they lost focus and made 2 or 3 acquisitions and got outside of the Bakken. Has pulled back to the point where it is cheap. Catalyst will be successful drilling over the next 2 or 3 quarters. Consider adding to it when it was under $22.

2010-06-28

BUY

22.590

Jim Huang

Getting a level where you can get more interested. They are starting to execute on some plays. It could be a good buy.

2010-06-22

BUY

23.250

Very active drillers. Trade at a discount because they are not forthcoming with numbers and guidance. As they become more forthcoming, they should lose the discount.

2010-06-10

BUY

23.320

Results haven’t been that great. Production has failed to reach some objectives. It is reasonably price now. Have been acquiring some new assets. They haven’t been tested thoroughly and there is some questionable about what production they will get you if it. It has broken it’s downtrend.

2010-06-04

SELL ON STRENGTH

24.140

Don Vialoux

This is anomalous. Most energy stocks are not like this. You want to get out within the next two weeks.

2010-05-31

Comment

23.900

Petrobakken (PBN-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T)? Crescent Point has better management and better production but is fully priced. Experimenting with some water flooding which has the potential of doubling reserves. Petrobakken is cheap but have had very disappointing production and haven't had the growth. An alternative would be Petrobank (PBG-T) that has better growth and leverage to heavy oil.

2010-05-28

HOLD

23.360

Jim Huang

In the Bakkens oil play. Have also become aggressive in the new Cardium oil play. His concern is what they are paying for acquisitions. Will pay off in the longer term but in the near term you're paying a lot for (?) and cash flow. Stock has suffered a little in terms of execution and expectations not being met.

2010-05-21

Comment

26.810

David Baskin

Currently suffering because oil has come down. Expect they will be back in the market raising money to cover their enormous potential CapX needs. This could be a damper on the stock. If oil goes back about $80, the stock will take off for sure.

2010-05-10

DON'T BUY

26.240

Petrobakken (PBN-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T)? He prefers Crescent Point. Acreage of Petrobakken in the Bakkens tends to be more fringe and lower quality and have embarked on a campaign of aggressive acquisitions in the Pembina/Cardium area. Market is waiting for them to stop acquiring.

2010-05-07

Comment

26.240

Got overpriced when the market got a little over enthused about some of their extraction processes and some of the takeovers they had made. Yield of 3.6%. His preference in this area is Crescent Point with its yield of almost 7%. (See Top Picks).

2010-05-07

Comment

26.810

Sandy McIntyre

Companies in the Bakken region are developing one of the larger oil fields in Canada. There is growth to this name but it becomes more difficult as the play matures. He prefers Crescent Point (CPG-T).

2010-04-23

BUY on WEAKNESS

26.740

Dean Orrico

Dominant position in the Bakken light oil play in Saskatchewan. His preference in this area would be Crescent Point (CPG-T). Both companies are fully valued but growth prospects and track record for Crescent Point is better as well as getting a yield.

2010-04-16

BUY

27.900

Don Lato

Good little company. Primarily oil in the Saskatchewan Bakken area. Sold off some nonessential assets today. Good management.

2010-04-14

BUY

27.150

Bill Harris, CFA

(Market Call Minute) Very high margin company.

2010-04-13

TOP PICK

27.420

Has some core growth in the Bakken area of Saskatchewan. Have also built a land base in the Cardium region. Growth by acquisition so there has to be a bit of a digestion period.

2010-04-12

STRONG BUY

26.250

Stock recently dropped. Made over $1 billion of acquisitions in the Cardium, which takes the market a while to digest. Real investment opportunity. Trades around 7X cash flow using $80 oil. Current price is indicating zero success in the Cardium so you are looking at 15%-20% upside on the Bakken fields. Probably $10 of risk on the Cardium plus they have shale gas.

2010-03-24

TOP PICK

26.890

Primarily Bakken but has diversified into a few Cardium plays. Stock price has retreated and is a great entry point. Good set of possible drill prospects. 4 or 5 years of really good growth prospects.

2010-03-15

HOLD

28.200

Fairly valued for the next year. It has some attraction long term. Valuation is the only negative to the story.

2010-03-05

BUY

29.650

A Bakken play and striking out into the Cardium side with the latest 2 acquisitions. Paid kind of on the expensive side per barrel but there is a lot of drilling coming. Looking at little more like Crescent Point (CPG-T) in that they are building up a great number of multi-years of drilling. Good price.

2010-01-29

HOLD

32.360

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Likes what she is seeing. Not super cheap but also not super expensive. Will trade with oil prices.

2010-01-13

BUY

32.360

PetroBakken (PBN-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T)? Likes the Bakken play and both of these companies but in the short term prefers PetroBakken, which has a better value.

2009-12-30

BUY

32.310

Have interests in the Bakken play in Saskatchewan. Should do quite well. Prefers Crescent Point (CPG-T) because of the dividend. Using new drilling techniques, which are very successful.

2009-12-21

TOP PICK

31.510

Bakken area, very prolific oil zone in Saskatchewan. Looking out to 2010-2011 they have a very solid land position, which will have above average volume growth. Low cost producer. 3.1% yield. Very undervalued from what it will be in 12 months.

2009-12-16

BUY

30.500

Don Lato

Are going to diversify away from some of the oil assets and focusing on the Bakken gas play.

2009-12-09

BUY

30.480

(Market Call Minute.) This is the merger of Tristar and Petrobank’s Bakken play. Undervalued by 10%-15%.

2009-12-07

BUY on WEAKNESS

30.130

Andrew Cook

Spin-off from Petrobank (PBG-T) and then did a merger. Lot of fanfare so wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a pullback. Light oil exposure and great economics from the Bakken play makes it a market darling. Couple of resource gas plays in northeastern BC could be a wildcard down the road.

2009-11-30

BUY

31.600

Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.

Saskatchewan oil. Has a great set of plays in front of it.

2009-11-06

DON'T BUY

30.730

Some controversy over the overall base decline rate of assets and they may be challenged to meet targets next year. Have to sell almost 10,000 barrels a day of production in Alberta next year and there are a lot of assets up for sale. Prefers Crescent Point, which has the better asset base and pays a higher dividend.

2009-11-03

TOP PICK

30.700