| PAST TOP PICK | 15.980 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | (A Top Pick May 9/07. Up 75%.) Although there is good future for the company, he would be a seller at this point. North Sea producer and has a number of rigs locked up. Buy on weakness, anything below $15 or $14. | 2008-07-18 | |
| BUY | 16.270 | Peter Brieger | A pure play on the North Sea. Easily a buying opportunity. | 2008-07-16 | |
| BUY | 17.570 | David Burrows | Fits into the camp of the companies that are able to raise their production level and resources. Have a lot of service equipment tied up. A good company to own. | 2008-07-11 | |
| BUY | 16.300 | Michael Smedley | They are in a tremendous position in the North Sea. Rig ownership and control. Great assets and a couple of great discoveries. | 2008-07-08 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 17.370 | Gavin Graham | Have a great portfolio of property in the North Sea. Looks like it will continue to be a big winner. Should continue to grow in its earnings over the next few years. | 2008-07-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 18.600 | Andrew Cook | As a growth manager looking for strongly growing companies, this one falls into this category. Have a number of various different projects that are starting to come on line and produce. Production is likely to triple over the next few years. Quite cheap at about 60% of its peer group. | 2008-07-02 | |
| BUY | 18.770 | Peter Gibson | 28.6% ROE and rising at a rate that is so unusual statistically that you would see this kind of growth less than 5% of the time historically. A little pricey on a P/E basis at 23.8X’s. Might be the company with the fastest margin and turnover growths in all of the TSX. | 2008-06-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 17.120 | Michael Sprung | Have been able to build reserves quite effectively. On a price per value basis it is a little expensive. | 2008-06-26 | |
| BUY | 17.650 | David Cockfield | A North Sea play. Have some real talent in terms of lining up their drilling. Production went flat and the stock has sort of gone flat itself. Thinks it is probably ready to take another run. | 2008-06-20 | |
| BUY | 18.020 | Ron Meisels | Broke out through a very important level of around $16.70 and took out its recent high. Has a rising 200-day moving average. | 2008-06-19 | |
| BUY | 18.250 | John Stephenson | Reserve bookings have basically doubled. Production is coming on very strong and looking to double the Shelby field. Good diversity of projects. Very high netbacks. | 2008-06-16 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 17.560 | Brian Acker, CA | Model price is $26.05, a 51% positive differential. Main complaint is that he doesn't see any massive earnings revisions as he sees in Nexen (NXY-T) or Talisman (TLM-T). He'll wait for a dip before buying. | 2008-06-11 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 17.700 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Operates in the North Sea. Has a great slate of drilling prospects. Somewhat volatile so buy opportunistically. Can grow its production significantly over the next several years. | 2008-06-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 16.550 | Joseph Schachter | (A Top Pick July 20/07. Up 18%.) Looking for over 40,000 BOEs a day by the end of 2008, 65,000 in 09 and 100,000 by 2010. Well financed and have rigs. | 2008-06-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 16.000 | Stephen Carlin | UK North Sea oil explorer and developer. Have 3 or 4 projects they are bringing on stream. Have oilrigs secured, which has allowed them to wiggle their way into some projects. Will be doubling production between 2008 and 2009. Cash flow growth is very significant. | 2008-06-03 | |
| BUY | 15.710 | Robert Floyd | Oil is going to very volatile, lots of ancillary demand out of India and China, which some are not taking into consideration. $1.10 to 1.50 range for oil as a commodity. Like this stock, interesting exploration plays. It can go a lot higher. Lot of opportunities for trading. | 2008-05-30 | |
| BUY | 15.380 | Andrew Cook | Oil producer in the North Sea. Quite a cheap stock, but it is entering a period where production is ramping up significantly. Significantly undervalued. | 2008-05-29 | |
| BUY | 16.370 | David Burrows | (Market Call Minute.) A good company at getting new assets. | 2008-05-22 | |
| BUY | 15.990 | Gavin Graham | Has not done as well as other Canadian oil companies, partially because of the currency as sterling has weakened substantially. Production in the North Sea has not grown as rapidly as people had hoped. Feels it will continue to be a good growth story. | 2008-05-20 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 16.000 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | (A Top Pick May 9/07. Up 72%.) Great number of drilling prospects in front of them. Could back off which would be the time to buy. | 2008-05-16 | |
| Comment | 16.800 | Jennifer Stevenson | Comparing this with Pan Orient Energy (POE-X) (see comments under POE-X) she prefers this as there is better valuation. It is not as expensive and has the same kind of upside. Also there is less political risk in the North Sea. | 2008-05-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.560 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $24.87, which is a 50% positive differential. It would be great to see some upside earnings revisions but he is expecting a negative revision. | 2008-05-08 | |
| WATCH | 16.520 | Paul Thornton | Potentially has a huge upside and could be $50-$60 a share. Production is expected to be 4X the current level. Has already made a big move and has been consolidating since last fall. He would like to see it move higher with significant volume, which would be your entry point. Stepping in now, there is a risk it is still consolidating and could drop back to $13-$14. | 2008-05-07 | |
| BUY | 16.520 | Greg A. Taylor, CFA, BBA | One of the best stocks to own for the last few years. In the North Sea and they have gone after some high profile targets. Probably on a lot of M&A lists right now as a target. | 2008-05-07 | |
| BUY | 15.500 | Peter Brieger | Has been a Top Pick 2 or 3 times this year. Focuses on the North Sea on properties that were cast off by the majors. Looking at cash flows at $6+ and production of around 65,000 barrels a day. | 2008-05-01 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 15.050 | Jennifer Stevenson | Expect production release in the next few months will disappoint the market and you may have a lower entry point. Have 2 rigs running now and will perhaps add a 3rd and that will give you continuous production growth over the long term. | 2008-04-25 | |
| BUY | 15.130 | David Burrows | (Market Call Minute.) Likes oil/gas. | 2008-04-18 | |
| TOP PICK | 14.910 | Peter Brieger | Cautious on the market so his 3 top picks are deep value. Great exposure to light oil. Have taken properties in the North Sea that majors abandoned. Reworked some of the fields. Looking at $3.50/$4 this year in cash flow and about 30 to 33 thousand barrels of production going to about $7.50/$8 next year on 60,000 barrels a day. If they can get another offshore rig, they can probably get production up to 100,000 barrels getting cash flow of $11/$12. | 2008-04-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 14.480 | Michael Sprung | Reserves in the North Sea have come in quite strong. Has performed extremely well. Feels it might be priced too much for perfection. If there were any mistakes, it would be hit quite hard. Cells at over 5X BV, which in the oil patch is quite expensive. Any disappointment and you could see a real strong pull back. Risk/reward is not worth it. | 2008-04-15 | |
| BUY | 13.990 | Joanne A. Hruska, CFA | (Market Call Minute.) Just acquired a small company in the UK. It will go higher. | 2008-04-14 | |
| BUY | 14.200 | Gavin Graham | This will be a beneficiary of higher oil prices. Has lots of exposure in exciting parts of the world, which could give more volatility. The higher growth, higher Beta way to play oil. | 2008-04-09 | |
| WEAK BUY | 13.780 | Ron Meisels | It was a real great stock and had done very well but has slowed down a little bit. The moving average currently intersects at about $13 in the stock managed to come below it a little bit. It should have support around $12-$13. There are others he prefers more but it's fine as long as you don't see it below $12. | 2008-04-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 13.720 | Joseph Schachter | (A Top Pick Apr 24/07. Up 57%.) Doing about 23,000 BOE's a day and expects it to be 45,000 with $4/$5cash flow by year-end including their Shelley play. Huntington is showing very thick pay zones that could net 50,000 BOE’s a day by 2011. Cash flow could be $14/$15 a day by that time. Still doing new exploration work. | 2008-04-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.140 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $24.38 giving it an 86% upside. The only issue that he has with this one is a plethora of good news but never sees the earnings estimates going up. Any pullback in oil prices and get could get back to $11 quite easily. Any positive news in oil or the company and your upside is $17.44. Risk/reward is not good enough for him. | 2008-04-03 | |
| TOP PICK | 13.100 | Peter Brieger | This company has adopted the income trust model for the North Sea but is a corporate structure. It has taken the fields that have been discarded by the majors and are producing very nicely at their low cost structure. 30,000 barrels this year giving them $3/$4 cash flow and hopefully 63,000 next year giving close to $7.70. Have 2 offshore rigs and are hoping to buy a 3rd to get them to 100,000 for $11 a share. | 2008-04-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.600 | Michael Sprung | Exploring in the north sea and have been successful. Recent results weren’t up to analyst’s expectations. Trading at a pretty high multiple, would have to be cheaper before purchased. | 2008-03-27 | |
| WEAK BUY | 13.680 | Ross Healey | The fair market value based on forecast earnings is $50. The stock is trading on technical support. Not a bad bet. A little more expensive then most of the oils in the index. | 2008-03-26 | |
| WEAK BUY | 12.600 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Really like it. They are having delays. Stock is very cheap. It’s a question of time. | 2008-03-24 | |
| HOLD | 12.900 | Robert Floyd | Likes it. When some of these companies are reporting, that even though the numbers are quite good, a lot of traders are jumping on the bandwangon and driving prices down.
Long term stick with it. | 2008-03-20 | |
| TOP PICK | 13.710 | Peter Brieger | Think of it as an energy income trust. They have low costs, with cash flow of $4 going to $6 next year. Speculation of getting to 100 000 barrels a day, cash flow of $11-12 a share. | 2008-03-19 | |
| BUY | 14.290 | Peter Hodson | Continues to execute. Finding more and more assets under the north sea. Almost have guaranteed growth. Great management team, one of the cheapest names in the oil space right now. The company doesn’t need to sell. Bought some today. | 2008-03-17 | |
| BUY | 12.900 | Peter Hodson | Continues to execute and delineate their fields. Are finding more and more assets under the North seas. They've got the facilities and rigs, they know what they are doing, but the stock goes up and down like a yo-yo.
One of the cheapest assets right now. Just bought some. | 2008-03-17 | |
| BUY | 14.820 | Michael Smedley | Recent turn down on the stock is really because of the market. Has an amazing success record in the North Sea. They are in a position of strength because of the ownership of rigs. | 2008-03-13 | |
| BUY | 14.850 | Derek Webb, CFA | Stock market is pricing oil companies as if oil is $60. So they are all cheap. Likes this company's prospects going forward. | 2008-03-11 | |
| TOP PICK | 14.820 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | International oil. In the North Sea. Has a number of very interesting areas it is working in. Owns drilling rigs, which is important in the North Sea. Two main operating areas are North Firth and the Southern Gas area. Mainly acquired their positions through farm-ins. Continue to dramatically grow their production at reasonable costs. (Would treat the Top Picks as a Watch rather than a Buy.) | 2008-03-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 14.820 | Joseph Schachter | Producing about 22,000/23,000 BOEs a day in the North Sea and will be ramping this up. Holding at its current level because the market wants to see the ramp up as they bring gas separation equipment on. Have also has some good success with the drill bit. See them producing 100,000 BOE's a day by 2010, and generating cash flow in excess of today’s stock price. Could see this as a $40/$50 stock over the next 3 to 4 years. | 2008-03-07 | |
| BUY | 15.480 | Michael Sprung | (Market Call Minute.) Have done tremendously in increasing their reserves in the North Sea. Seem to be surprising everybody on the upside and he wouldn't be surprised to see them continue to do this. | 2008-03-05 | |
| BUY | 15.480 | John Stephenson | Has exposure to the North Sea and has very high netbacks (margins). Have had some recent reserve reports, which have doubled their reserves. Think they will get re-rated by the street and go higher from here. | 2008-03-05 | |
| Comment | 15.740 | Brian Acker, CA | A lot of news, but the analysts are taking a dim view of it. He is waiting for all the good news to actually add to earnings estimates, which would positively affect the stock. His model price is $24.27, a 47% positive differential. Very expensive stock. He thinks it is reaching a heavy resistance level at around $17. It needs really good news in terms of estimates to break above this level. It's in a trading level and could see a low of $11 again if the oil group got bearish again. | 2008-02-27 | |
| BUY | 16.270 | Michael Smedley | One of its great assets is its control over rigs. Other people need them and probably can't get them as they are busy. Recently had a great discovery. Good production. Thinks it is all set to continue on upwards. | 2008-02-21 | |
| BUY | 15.100 | David Burrows | This is going to be a growth stock for some time to come. Have pretty positive news flow and great assets. | 2008-02-15 | |
| BUY | 14.420 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Just announced a new massive discovery. He has been buying lately. Company has been extremely good at exploring and discovering new fields. | 2008-02-12 | |
| BUY | 12.760 | John Stephenson | A good name. They knocked against it has been that it had a short reserve life. In the last year, they have proven up a couple of new fields in the North Sea which gives you $50-$60 netback/margin versus $26 in Alberta. | 2008-02-08 | |
| BUY | 13.280 | Alex Ruus | (Market Call Minute.) Good North Sea production growth. | 2008-02-04 | |
| STRONG BUY | 12.820 | Peter Hodson | Stock is very, very cheap and production growth is phenomenal. In a bad market, people sell their winners first and this is why it is down. Hearing there is a new discovery coming. Some of their fields look like they could be more prolific than people are thinking right now. | 2008-01-31 | |
| TOP PICK | 12.410 | Joseph Schachter | (A Past Top Pick Jan 23/07. Up 57.7%.) Doing about 25,000 BOE's per day out of the Brenda/Nicol play and doing cash flow of about $2. Will be bringing on the Shelley play this year and more stuff around Brenda/Nicol and should be about 50,000 barrels by the end of 08. In 09 looking for them to bring on Huntington as well as other plays with Nexen (NXY-T). Sees cash flow greater than today's stock price by the end of 09 or 10. | 2008-01-24 | |
| BUY | 11.150 | Michael Smedley | Low price give you a grand opportunity to buy into the North Sea play. It has rigs. Good management. Good price. | 2008-01-22 | |
| BUY | 9.920 | Jean-Francois Tardif | He calculates about $4 of cash flow this year and $6 next year. At 2.5X 08 cash flow it is very cheap. This company is extremely successful at making new discoveries. Years ago, they blocked in a number of rigs for their own use. | 2008-01-21 | |
| Comment | 11.590 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $25.18, a 106% positive differential and, if there is a correction in the oils, the next level down is $10.84. | 2008-01-17 | |
| Comment | 11.590 | Bill Harris | Conservatively, it should trade in the $14-$15 trading range, but they have a great base that they will be able to explore into. This has been a very healthy pullback for exactly this kind of a company. Looking closely at this one. | 2008-01-17 | |
| BUY | 13.280 | Peter Brieger | Picking off some very interesting properties in the North Sea. Even though the North Sea is past its prime, it still has several areas that could be quite prolific. Expect you will see a substantial increase in cash flow and production going forward. | 2008-01-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.740 | Bill Carrigan | Long-term chart shows a peak in the latter part of 07. It is now moving down. Let it unwind and do what it is going to do. | 2008-01-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.170 | Michael Sprung | (Market Call Minute.) This is dealing with future production. If everything goes, their earnings are going to ramp up very smartly. Would prefer something with current production. | 2008-01-08 | |
| BUY | 13.170 | John Stephenson | Has 2 positives. 1) It's not producing in Alberta where they are going to have the royalty review taxes and 2) there is very strong production growth. Good company and thinks it goes higher from here. | 2008-01-08 | |
| BUY | 13.650 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | Chart shows a lovely uptrend, which was turning more and more positive but ended with a very sharp pullback from $17 to near $12 with a lot of volume. If you believe in the North Sea story, you buy here and put a stop at $11.95. | 2008-01-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 13.480 | Joseph Schachter | The key is that they are producing from the Brenda fields at 20,000 BOE's, which will be ramping up to 30,000 over the next couple of months. Have a number of projects that they are working on. Could be producing 100,000 BOE’s a day by the end of 2009, which would generate cash flow greater than today's stock price. Still have 2 rigs, one dedicated to development drilling and the other to exploration drilling. | 2008-01-02 | |
| Comment | 12.550 | Peter Brieger | Thinks this one will do just fine. Very active in the North Sea and have taken on additional wells and locations. Looking at buying more, but hasn't made a decision yet. | 2007-12-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 13.080 | Joseph Schachter | (A Past Top Pick Jan 23/07. Up 73.6%.) Have production on side right now with the Brenda fields at about 18,000 BOE's. Think this can go up into the mid-20,000. Thinks they can do 100,000 production in the 4th quarter of 09. | 2007-12-19 | |
| BUY | 13.900 | Peter Hodson | Just released information and everything is fine. Maybe not as bullish as some expected but he was happy with it. Budget for next year is huge in the $700 million range so valuation is cheap. Have great upside. Some delays in tying in some of their production but with under seas development this sometimes happens. | 2007-12-14 | |
| BUY | 14.960 | Michael Smedley | Turning into one of the smaller stars in the North Sea. Has rigs availability and has been doing very well. Good entry point. | 2007-12-12 | |
| BUY | 14.800 | Peter Hodson | Has been buying the stock on the way down. Had a couple of bad weeks but he likes the management team and the growth rate. There may be some production delays and may drop the production down by 10%-13%. Growth potential is very large. | 2007-11-26 | |
| BUY | 15.520 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $25.63, a positive 64% differential. Had nice earnings revisions. If nothing changes on this company, the earnings come in and the growth of the balance sheet you are looking at a price of $25.21. | 2007-11-20 | |
| VAGUE | 15.700 | Gavin Graham | Non-Canadian oil. | 2007-11-19 | |
| VAGUE | 15.700 | Gavin Graham | Non-Canadian oil. | 2007-11-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 16.340 | Joseph Schachter | Had good production from the UK Brenda field. If they bring their current discoveries on in the next 2 to 3 years, they could be doing $11 annualized cash flow by early 2010. Very cheap. | 2007-11-15 | |
| HOLD | 14.920 | Michael Decter | Has had a huge run and probably got a little ahead of itself. From everything he knows, it is a very solid play. Look for it to bottom and start back up before buying. | 2007-11-12 | |
| BUY | 17.300 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $22.73. That's a 31% positive differential. Just sold his holdings yesterday with a 40% gain, looking for value elsewhere. He would Buy it here. | 2007-11-01 | |
| BUY | 17.240 | Veronika Hirsch | Likes having a Canadian company with global assets. Have oil assets in the North Sea and have been incredibly successful in finding large pools and bringing them into production on a timely basis. | 2007-10-31 | |
| HOLD | 17.240 | Allan Jacobs | They like this company at Sprott. They have had great exploration in the North Sea and their production is growing. It is inexpensive. Stock will be a pretty good winner a year up. | 2007-10-30 | |
| SELL | 17.240 | Gavin Graham | Recommends selling if you own and taking a profit. Good time to look at Canadian gas stocks as they are cheap. | 2007-10-29 | |
| VAGUE | 17.460 | Michael Sprung | Has been getting a lot of attention lately. A north sea play. Speculative. More than 10 times cash flow. | 2007-10-26 | |
| TOP PICK | 17.460 | Stephen Carlin | Will probably triple production between now and 2009. 3 significant discoveries in UK north sea. Trades at a very reasonable multiple of cash flow. Really like the growth profile of the company. | 2007-10-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 16.930 | Joseph Schachter | (Up 138% since Jan.2007)Outstanding return thus far and recommends holding it. They still love this story. | 2007-10-22 | |
| HOLD | 17.570 | Bill Carrigan | In an up trend, but at the top of the control channel. he would wait. | 2007-10-17 | |
| BUY | 17.890 | Peter Hodson | He likes the company. They have financing in place. The discovery in the North Sea looks good. It is cheap to buy. | 2007-10-15 | |
| BUY | 17.890 | Laura Wallace | Thinks in the near term there is a lot of momentum. We are increasingly relying on technology to get at the more difficult to retrieve oil. There is oil in Russia and China, but the political climate makes it unstable. | 2007-10-15 | |
| HOLD | 17.100 | Robert Floyd | If you own, stick with it. | 2007-10-12 | |
| BUY | 16.910 | Joseph Schachter | Have the biggest discovery in the UK North Sea for the last 5 years. He is waiting for the technical details to come out and will be raising his target again. | 2007-10-11 | |
| BUY | 17.040 | Brian Acker, CA | Has momentum and upside to the model price. | 2007-10-10 | |
| BUY | 16.460 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Located in the North Sea. Has done extremely well. Early on, they hooked up with a company that had rigs and signed long-term contracts. When there was a shortage of rigs they were able to farm into other properties. They are now in the ramp up production. November is the month when they have a record amount of new targets. | 2007-10-09 | |
| BUY | 15.720 | David Burrows | High-growth. International exposure. One of the best oil stocks on the TSE. | 2007-10-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 14.500 | Chyanne Fickes | In the North Sea and have had great success finding oil. Planning on exiting 08 at 70,000 barrels a day and 100,000 in 09. Costs are going up as they are going into a new development, which will be started in the 2nd half of 08. Cash flow will grow significantly. | 2007-10-01 | |
| BUY | 14.880 | Brendan Kyne | Has big opportunities in the next 2 years in the North Sea. | 2007-09-24 | |
| BUY | 15.030 | Peter Hodson | We own big position. Have to deal with delays. With royalty situation in Canada, investors are putting their money elsewhere, it’s a go-to name. Expect company to be sold. | 2007-09-20 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | 14.370 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Think that oil will do very well even in U.S recession. One of favourite names in oil, feel like management had good vision. Have very nice assets and are starting to produce while still exploring. | 2007-09-17 | |
| HOLD | 14.550 | Robert Floyd | Outlook for oil is positive. Expect they will have stronger cash flows. | 2007-09-14 | |
| TOP PICK | 13.940 | Joseph Schachter | (A Top Pick Sept 29/06. Up 114%.) Doing 30,000 BOE’s a day from the Brenda fields. As they bring on 2 more discoveries, it is expected to grow to 60,000 BOE's. | 2007-09-11 | |
| BUY | 13.750 | Alex Ruus | One of the better plays on production growth in the North Sea basin. Have secured good offshore rig services, which are really tight right now. | 2007-09-04 | |
| BUY | 11.720 | Peter Hodson | Bought some today.
Doing 30,000 barrels a day now. Very well managed. Next step is either a major acquisition, or the sale of their company.
To go back to the highs of around $15, from a risk standpoint, they are producing more, the price of oil is higher, and their assets are better now then when their stock was $15. | 2007-08-17 | |
| TOP PICK | 11.720 | Joseph Schachter | They have 2 semi submersible rigs so they are continuing to drill. They have production on right now from the Brenda field. With the projects they have, there is tremendous cash flow coming and tremendous exploration potential. | 2007-08-17 | |
Experts that have talked about Oilexco Inc
