| Comment | 46.630 | Norman Levine | Doesn't have exploration potential so is very tied in to commodity prices. Great one to own in the long-term. Could see some near-term weakness with the price of oil. | 2008-09-05 | |
| Comment | 51.460 | Ross Healey | Huge upside potential. 9.74% yield. The downside is that it sells at over 6X its book value. Most of the rest of the index is selling at about 2.5. As long as oil holds in here it will work out okay. Interesting but speculative. | 2008-08-29 | |
| Comment | 51.680 | Joseph Schachter | This is a warrant on the price of oil. When you believe the price of oil is going to rise, you want to be long. | 2008-08-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 50.740 | Kevin O'Leary | (Market Call Minute.) Likes the CEO but does not like these prices. His entry point would be $38. | 2008-08-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 49.800 | Ben Cheng | (A Top Pick July 23/07. Up 55% total return.) They will generate a ton of cash and most of it will come back to investors in terms of a healthy dividend. | 2008-08-07 | |
| BUY | 48.660 | Peter Brieger | This is one on his radar screen. Good price. 10.25% yield. Have done all their capital spending for now so whatever cash flow they have can be flowed through their units. | 2008-08-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 51.440 | Derek Webb, CFA | (3 Top Picks are all yield stocks. Market is so beaten up stocks are very cheap.) Recent earnings where good. Increased dividend from $1 to $1.25. Yield of about 10%. (Good pairs trade with Babcock & Brown (FLY-N)). | 2008-07-31 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 48.010 | Norman Levine | If you’re an oil “value” player there is not a lot of value in the oil patch right now. A lot of the valuation is based on prices of oil and natural gas, which have had big runs. If you are a short-term investor, you might look at taking some money out of the oil sands. | 2008-07-21 | |
| Comment | 46.400 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Good long-term hold if you want oil exposure. May suffer in the short term as prices come off a little. | 2008-07-18 | |
| HOLD | 49.850 | Ross Healey | One of the great winners in the recent rise in oil has not been the oil stocks themselves but has been the energy trusts. As long as oil keeps going up he expects they will raise their payouts. | 2008-07-15 | |
| BUY | 49.780 | Gavin Graham | Dividend on this has increased 1000% in the last 3.5 years. The purest play on the oil sands and has cash coming out of its ears. | 2008-07-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 54.700 | David Baskin | Thinks the political uproar about oil sands is probably overdone. This stock is pretty highly valued given its extraction costs. Prefers to play the oil sands indirectly through companies that have interests in it but other oil interests as well. | 2008-07-03 | |
| HOLD | 49.750 | Robert Floyd | With higher oil prices, these companies are facing higher distributions so there could be an increase. | 2008-06-24 | |
| BUY | 53.800 | David Burrows | A great total return stock. Rising production and rising distributions. | 2008-06-16 | |
| BUY | 49.020 | Peter Brieger | (Market Call Minute.) A great way to play the oil sands. There will be a lot more takeover activity. Distributions are safe. | 2008-06-04 | |
| BUY | 49.600 | Stephen Carlin | One of the most levered companies in Canada to oil prices. Expensive because of its long life reserves. Very little execution risks. | 2008-06-03 | |
| HOLD | 53.500 | Gavin Graham | There could be a pull back in the next couple of months if seasonality has anything to do with it. This one has been the major winner. Long life reserves in a politically stable area. Environmental concerns could be a negative but everything else is going full blast. Good yield. | 2008-05-20 | |
| BUY | 49.840 | Michael Simpson, CFA | (Market Call Minute.) Has about 37% interest in the Syncrude project. | 2008-05-14 | |
| BUY | 48.250 | Paul Thornton | Oil/gas sector is really hot and this is a long-term proven winner. | 2008-05-07 | |
| HOLD | 44.500 | Sandy McIntyre | Doesn't have any near-term growth because its partners have not decided if they will expand production. As soon as there is an opportunity for growth, which involves capital, he will be increasing his holdings. 8% yield. Well managed. | 2008-05-05 | |
| BUY | 43.800 | Dennis Dasilva | A core position for most portfolios. A very well run trust. Has one of the more strategic assets that you could own, the oil sands. | 2008-05-01 | |
| BUY | 45.230 | Michael Sprung | Recently announced an increase in their distribution. At today's price, the yield is getting to the point where you have a pretty good trade off given the equity risk in the longer term. This is a play that will develop over the long-term. Production will continually ramp up. | 2008-04-30 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 46.320 | Robert Lauzon | (A Top Pick Nov 24/06. Up 70%.) If you own, it wouldn't hurt if you took a bit off the table. Company will be making boatloads of cash flow but, right now, oil is worth about $80 a barrel and it could pull back if the US$ gains strength against the euro. | 2008-04-28 | |
| Comment | 45.410 | Jennifer Stevenson | Longest standing oil sands productive region in Alberta. Fairly valued at this point based on $90 oil. Upside is the increasing value as oil prices stay above $100. Also a potential of another distribution increase because of the oil price. | 2008-04-25 | |
| BUY | 44.290 | David Cockfield | Good long-term holding. Continues to increase payouts and production. Good assets and good management. | 2008-04-24 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 44.650 | Ben Cheng | (A Top Pick July 23/07. Up 34% including distributions.) Continuing to bring on production. Still a Buy. | 2008-04-16 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 40.930 | John Stephenson | A great way to play oil. Not a bad time to dip your toe in, $36-37 would be a little more attractive as an entry point. They have a dominant position. Oil prices should creep up. | 2008-03-25 | |
| TOP PICK | 43.300 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | Has broken out to new highs. Suggested stoploss would be around $35. | 2008-03-11 | |
| BUY | 41.950 | Norman Levine | Very good performer lately. To him, this is a long-term annuity. Just announced that they have more reserves than previously thought. Payout will continue to grow. 7.1% yield. | 2008-03-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 41.680 | Brian Acker, CA | Bought quite a chunk when it was very, very cheap during the dip in Jan/Feb. Getting a little expensive here. His model price is $40.84 a negative of 2% or 3%. He will probably sell this shortly. Try to buy oil on the dips. | 2008-02-27 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 41.800 | Sandy McIntyre | (A Top Pick Apr 13/07. Up 46% including distributions.) Chose this because of its growth in both cash flow and production. No longer a growth expansion. To get some growth in the oil sands, he took a little money off the table and put it in UTS Energy (UTS-T). Not a Buy at this time. | 2008-02-26 | |
| BUY | 40.260 | Dennis Dasilva | Great dividend and will probably see an increase later this year once they go through the turnaround on the coker and upgrader. Good stable income. Buy and put away for the long-term. | 2008-02-25 | |
| BUY | 37.930 | David Baskin | (Market Call Minute.) The big problem in the oil sands is the enormous inflation in their capital costs. However, oil prices will continue to be firm. | 2008-02-19 | |
| BUY | 36.900 | David Burrows | Energy space is interesting. Likes that there will be increased production as it goes along. He expects oil prices to stay pretty firm. | 2008-02-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 36.050 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | The overall market went up, but this one got stuck. There is no momentum here. Would sell this one, but not particularly today. There may be an overall market rally. | 2008-02-12 | |
| BUY | 37.400 | Norman Levine | Payout ratio is going to be about 86/87% based on estimates. A long term-annuity. The biggest owner of Syncrude. As the debt gets paid down, the payout will continue to go up. Likes of very much. | 2008-02-11 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 36.310 | Dean Orrico | (A Top Pick Nov 10/06. Up 24.8% including distributions.) Excellent company. Basically a cash-generating machine. Should be a core holding in any energy portfolio. Still a Buy. | 2008-01-29 | |
| BUY | 36.310 | Norman Levine | Every investor should have oil sands exposure. The purer the play, the better. Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN-T) or Suncor (SU-T) are great ways to play this. When you move away from them, you are moving to players that have yet to produce which gives uncertainty. | 2008-01-29 | |
| BUY | 35.340 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Has an approximate 40-year reserve life. With increased cash flow, they can increase distributions or be bought out. Either way you benefit. | 2008-01-22 | |
| BUY | 38.440 | John Stephenson | You want to be in the oil sands regardless of the government’s royalty review. If you want to play oil, this is one of the great ways to play it. | 2008-01-08 | |
| Comment | 39.190 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | Hit a peak in 06, nice little pullback, and is now going up. Where it's at now is just a little higher than what it was before, so it's at resistance. It may be time for a yellow caution flag and you may be able to get it at $32. If it goes to a new high, that's when he would like to buy it. | 2008-01-04 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 35.850 | Joseph Schachter | He likes oil and thinks prices will firm up and start moving over $100 this winter. Thinks you will see an all-time high on the stock next year. Buy in the low $30's. | 2007-12-19 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 36.700 | Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA | Guidance is a little bit on the low end. Costs are going to go up. There are a lot of headwinds in the way. Would try to buy under $33. If you own, put it away for a long period of time. | 2007-12-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 34.970 | Robert Lauzon | (Past Top Pick Nov 24/06. Up 20%.) Increased distributions this year. Starting to trim shares when it gets into the high $30's. Feels the fundamental price of oil is closer to $75. Still a long-term Hold. | 2007-11-29 | |
| BUY | 34.730 | Michael Decter | Likes the oil sands and this is a good way to participate. You will need to be patient. Prefers Petrobank (PBG-T). Probably a takeover somewhere down the road. | 2007-11-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.200 | Michael Sprung | Yield that’s less than 5%. Not going to see real earnings in the oil sands for some time. This is more of a play on the future of oil sands. There are other places that you could put your money in oil sector to get a better yield. A very long-term play. Don’t expect to see the stock price rise. | 2007-10-26 | |
| WAIT | 33.750 | David Baskin | Thinks depending on the royalties, it will have an impact. Extracting oil from oil sands is the most expensive method to produce oil. If the royalties are too high then the producers may look elsewhere.
Wait for the royalties to be announced before buying. | 2007-10-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.000 | Bill Carrigan | Most of the stocks involved in the oil sands are having overhead problems. Stronger Cdn$ is not helping. There are also an environmental concerns and costs. The sector is toppy and the stock is running into headwinds. | 2007-10-10 | |
| BUY | 32.060 | Norman Levine | Thinks the major expansion at Syncrude is just about over meaning that the cash flow from operations are going to explode, meaning that the dividend payout will go up quite a bit. A long-term annuity for you. | 2007-10-02 | |
| WAIT | 33.150 | Patrick Kim | Worst-case scenario $28-30. You should wait. See if its drops, and buy below $30. buy companies with less exposure to oil sands. | 2007-09-21 | |
| BUY | 31.320 | Ben Cheng | Prospects going forward are very good. Good balance sheet and they have their finances in place. Could possibly increase their distributions. 5.25% yield. | 2007-09-05 | |
| HOLD | 29.110 | Peter Brieger | Unlike many in the oil sands, they have completed their capital spending. Middle eastern interests have recently been buying into the oil sands. | 2007-08-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 31.230 | Sandy McIntyre | (Past Top Pick Dec 29/06. No change.) Was a disappointment. An oil weighted name and he had a bullish view on oil but this one did not respond. Offsetting it was the increase in the Cdn$. Long term Hold. | 2007-08-13 | |
| HOLD | 32.540 | Laura Wallace | One of the issues of the oil sands is the high cost of operation. She prefers straight equities rather than trusts. Well-managed company and if you are not concerned with volatility, continue to hold. | 2007-08-02 | |
| Comment | 34.210 | Leslie Lundquist | Probably the pre-eminent trust in the trust universe. Has done spectacularly well. There is a lot of speculation that they might increase their distribution. | 2007-07-25 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.500 | Ben Cheng | Could be an acquisition target going forward. | 2007-07-23 | |
| WAIT | 35.100 | Joseph Schachter | Very leveraged to the high price of oil. The price of oil may go up a little bit more in the near term, but usually in the fall there is a correction in the price. Wait for a correction. | 2007-07-20 | |
| BUY | 32.750 | Jean-Francois Tardif | This has always been the most expensive oil sands plays, but since all the other ones have started to move it has lagged. | 2007-07-16 | |
| Comment | 31.850 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | The beauty of this is that their expansion and growth is already behind them so they don't face the possibility of increasing costs. | 2007-07-11 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 32.410 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Loan reserve life of 40+ years. Good price. | 2007-07-04 | |
| Comment | 32.100 | Sandy McIntyre | Intending to pay down debt in the order of $1.3-$1.4 billion area. With the current production and current commodity prices, there could be another couple of distribution increases over the next year, but not much beyond that. | 2007-07-03 | |
| BUY | 30.960 | Andrew Guy, CFA | 5.25% yield. Will grow its distributions slowly and steadily. A sustainable business model. 40 years of oil in the ground. No drilling risks. Trading close to its NAV. | 2007-06-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.490 | Brian Acker, CA | The model price is $39.60 giving it a positive differential off 24%. This will disappear in two years because of taxation. (See “Today’s Commentary”.) | 2007-06-21 | |
| BUY | 31.810 | Dean Orrico | Not a takeover target. Have owned it for about 10 years now. If you are in this for the long haul, buy it and put it away. | 2007-06-14 | |
| HOLD | 30.110 | Michele Robitaille | The largest trust in their funds. Expect to see increases in distributions.
| 2007-06-11 | |
| BUY | 30.110 | Bob Stodgell | Long on reserves. It's weak right now, he doesn't know why. He is looking at it, to buy. | 2007-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.410 | Bill Harris, CFA | A very clean pure play. Can do very well, but because it's a consortium it's slightly dysfunctional. Likes suncore better. | 2007-05-31 | |
| BUY | 32.180 | Ben Cheng | Has been benefiting recently from the considerable international interest in acquiring oil sands properties. 5% yield. | 2007-05-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.130 | Brian Acker, CA | Model price is $38.83, a 21% positive differential, however keep in mind the tax legislation that will come in in about 2 years. | 2007-05-24 | |
| BUY | 32.710 | Norman Levine | This has really traded more like the price of oil. The biggest on the oil sands. Think of it as a long-term annuity. They are the biggest holder of Syncrude and may increase their holdings. Paying down debt very quickly and as they do, they will be able to raise their payout. | 2007-05-18 | |
| SELL | 31.350 | Don Vialoux | Has not been a happy stock, recently broken this downward trend. Company is very sensitive to the price of crude oil.
He is not interested in energy stocks, as the period seasonal strength is about to end. | 2007-05-05 | |
| BUY | 30.160 | John Stephenson | They get a great revenue stream from the oil sands. Dividend is likely to double within the next year. | 2007-04-30 | |
| BUY | 28.550 | Robert Floyd | Starting to find a number of the oil/gas trusts interesting. Many of them are takeout targets. Expect there will be a lot of consolidation in the sector. | 2007-04-19 | |
| BUY | 29.400 | Norman Levine | Oil sands area has been tainted in recent months because of worries about increased costs and environmental concerns. This creates a buying opportunity. In the long run, North America has no larger or more secure supply than the oil sands. | 2007-04-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 29.220 | Sandy McIntyre | Has lagged in the commodities and with other oil sands players. Has most of its capital expenditures behind it and is coming into production. | 2007-04-13 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 28.260 | Robert Lauzon | (A Top Pick Nov 24/06. Down 1.4%.) This should be a strategic holding in a portfolio. | 2007-03-30 | |
| HOLD | 28.750 | Robert Floyd | These types of stocks should have moved yesterday, but there may be concern on potential new US tax legislation. If the outlook for oil/gas is to be going up, the stocks should do well. | 2007-03-29 | |
| BUY | 28.840 | John Stephenson | Has one of the lowest payout ratios. Have been in a debt repayment mode. Huge reserve life and zero in finding and development costs. An attractive entry point. | 2007-03-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.300 | Ron Meisels | Has been behaving negatively indicating that people are less interested in getting into this one. | 2007-03-21 | |
| BUY | 27.280 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Great assets with reserve life of about 50 years. Bullish on oil for the longer term. | 2007-03-20 | |
| Comment | 26.300 | David Cockfield | If you like oil on a reserve bases, long-term, this is a buy. However, the yield is not going to be terribly exciting. Currently is not enthused about the oil sands because of the high costs. | 2007-03-15 | |
| BUY | 25.430 | David Baskin | The costs in every project in the oil sands keep escalating in an exponential fashion. Buy it, but think of it is a long-term hold. | 2007-03-14 | |
| BUY | 26.060 | Norman Levine | Under performed the oils in general lately. There may be concerns about potential environmental rules. This is only short-term, and in the long run, the North American economy needs the oil sands. This is the purest play in there. Think of it as a long-term annuity. | 2007-03-13 | |
| BUY | 26.050 | Gavin Graham | Has dropped because of the price of oil. This is the single best, longest-term story on energy. Has already done its expansion, so doesn't have to worry about costs. Could be a takeout eventually. Tripled its dividend in the last 18 months. | 2007-03-06 | |
| BUY | 27.120 | Alex Ruus | Oil sands are world-class assets and at some point, the big producers could be takeovers by large international companies. Great long-term asset. Suncor (SU-T) is probably a better value. | 2007-03-01 | |
| BUY | 27.080 | Norman Levine | To be a participant in the oil sands, there are 2 plays. One is Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN-T) and Suncor Energy (SU-T). These are the 2 highest quality, purest plays. Like long-term annuities. Great investments in the long run. | 2007-02-27 | |
| Comment | 27.350 | Michael Decter | There is an environment issue on oil sands and how it is going to play out. Won't put numbers on it, but it will be higher in a year. | 2007-02-26 | |
| BUY | 27.010 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Has about a 40-year reserve life. Because it is in the safe jurisdiction, you may see foreign investors become more interested. | 2007-02-23 | |
| BUY | 27.300 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Getting close to a buying point, but it is a trust, which could create some risks. Technically, it is in the area where the risk/reward is attractive. | 2007-02-21 | |
| BUY | 27.300 | John Stephenson | Looking for modest upside to $34-$35. Likes the pure play of the oil sands. A good entry point. | 2007-02-21 | |
| HOLD | 27.560 | Peter Brieger | Good long-term assets. | 2007-02-19 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 27.850 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Oil sands producers are the most heavily leveraged to the price of oil. Fine company with great assets. Has gotten a little expensive. Good long-term asset. Buy when the prices are soft. | 2007-02-16 | |
| BUY | 27.860 | Stephen Carlin | Have long-life reserves in the oil sands. This is a real call on the price of oil. He is bullish on the long-term prospects for oil. Will provide a decent yield, and because of their assets, feels the stock will go much higher. | 2007-02-14 | |
| Comment | 27.600 | David Baskin | There has been a very sharp rise in capital costs for all the oil sands. | 2007-02-13 | |
| BUY | 27.440 | Norman Levine | This is a long-term annuity. The best pure play on the oil sands. Nobody buys it for the distributions, but if you look out long enough, you should. It will be a money machine. | 2007-02-12 | |
| HOLD | 29.350 | Michele Robitaille | Long-term outlook for this trust is quite good. Have basically completed phase 3 expansion and are now doing the phase 4 bottlenecking stage that will allow them to further increase production. Getting pretty close to being fully valued. | 2007-02-02 | |
| WAIT | 30.790 | Brendan Kyne | Very long life assets. If the government does not change their mind on income trust, this will have to convert to a corporation. Trust funds will have to liquidate their holdings, which will depress pricing. | 2007-01-29 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 29.980 | Joseph Schachter | Feels that tar sands stocks such as UTS (UTS-T), Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN-T) and Western Oil Sands (WTO-T) will all do well. If we get to a $70 commodity prices, they will go back to all-time highs. | 2007-01-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 29.220 | Robert Lauzon | Not too many places in the world where you can get long life reserves of 70 years plus of high quality, light crude. Will be generating more cash in 07 and wouldn't be surprised to see a higher distribution increase. | 2007-01-22 | |
| Comment | 29.000 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | There is a lot of leverage in the oil sands game to the price. The fact that the price is coming down is a bit of a concern. Technically hasn't done any worse than a lot of the other oil stocks. Look at it as a trading range for the next 6 months or so. | 2007-01-17 | |
Experts that have talked about Canadian Oil Sands Trust
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