Partner at Cerity Partners
Member since: Oct '21 · 238 Opinions
They report later today, but he's not interest in that, but rather the conference call about how tight the market is for deep-drilling rigs. He thinks it's a matter of when, not if, their rigs will be reactivated.
They report today. It won't be a slam dunk, but there's potential for bad news due to soft demand for EVs which require a lot of chips. So, does NXP have enough strength in supplying gas-powered cars (sales are healthy) to offset weakness in EVs? There could be upside surprise.
China remains their Achilles' heel, though the Tesla news today about China offers a halo effect. China doesn't want its citizens to buy Apple's phones.
Why are financials labouring today? True, the reports of JPM, Citi and Blackrock were fabulous, but we will have an inverted yield curve (and higher interest rates for longer) which will weigh on net interest income. Not fatal, but he wouldn't step into financials.
It was important that this week Apple held support (October's low) of $168. But given the overall market this week, he won't invest in this or other stocks. He expects the market to fall 4-5% in the short term.
It's a show-me story. He thinks Splunk can reignite earnings. Ex-Splunk, Cisco has been dull with tech spending going into AI. It depends on Splunk.
They have a long-term big problem. He won't touch it. He sold it right after the Alaska Airline fiasco. The CEO isn't the solution or problem. Production is declining and cash flow and profits will be crimped.
At some point, this will correct, but nothing worse. Bears point to the 35x forward PE, but this is growing into its earnings 50% year over year. No sign of inventory gluts. He expects dip buyers to swoop. At some point, you need to trim this, and tomorrow's CPI figure could be the trigger.
He'd buy mor at $160, but the technicals are ugly, that its 200-day moving average is about to roll over as the market has been rallying. The 50-day wants to cross the 200-day--and you don't want that.
They had a bad quarter due to the impact of data centres they're building to fuel future growth. He wants an update about this and its effect on their margins. These centres are key to their long-term growth. A good hold now.
A new holding and doesn't expect any surprises either way in this week's report.
Price target was raised to $91 by an analyst. Shares are now in a downtrend, but don't wait too long to enter it. It's had a great run, up 10% YTD.