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Not sure how much of a factor US midterms will be. Movement towards the Democrats might handcuff the Republicans on some parts of their agenda. It won't really change anything over the next 2 years, broadly speaking.

It really comes back to inflation and the price of oil. The last time we saw long bonds act the way they are, we did eventually see some stress in the US banking sector. There's a very supportive movement to lower capital and reserve levels across the financial system in the Western world, so the stress might not appear. But as a rule of thumb, rates can go only so high before something in the financial system starts to bend, if not break.

So we might see some more volatility. Until we don't. ;)

It's one of the most speculative stocks on Earth, up 66% in 3 months.

It's not helpful for the price of money to go up abruptly the way it has. It slows down lending, might increase cost of deposits if people are tempted to move money into GICs. That all hurts margins.

When the S&P starts doing poorly, people will probably flock to those 6% bonds. That will cause interest rates to go down, which would actually help housing and lumber stocks.

A 25-point hike won't impact the big guys, but it certainly will impact the small/medium ones.