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Classic climb the wall of worry, and then take the elevator down. It'll probably last a little bit longer. We'll see what happens on Friday with SpaceX. There are so many moving parts and there's so much uncertainty out there, people are rebalancing. Doesn't think the drawdown will have legs. 

He has about a 52% hedge across most portfolios, and built up some cash to ~15%. When the rubber hits the road is when they take off that hedge.

Yesterday saw a pretty dramatic fall, as the futures got down to 28,200. It's sitting right now around 28,600. That 28,200 will be really important to find support. If it goes through there, we're probably going down close to another 1,000 points. The market's always right, so you have to respect it and pay attention. It never plays out the way you think.

It's risky to bet on derivatives of growth of other industries. If you think the AI boom will continue, it doesn't mean you need to invest in copper and power, because you may not got a pure play on that theme. Copper is used for many other products which could go bad or if there's a recession. Demand has been pulled forward for years, so the valuation is pricing in all the good news.

The Fed is the most important factor in the market now, and it's going the wrong way. There will be a better time to buy than now.

When the market bottomed in mid-2022 and the rally that followed, the market mostly was above the 200-day moving average, despite a few corrections. When a market gets cheap, about 10-30% of stocks trade are above the 200-day. Presently, 59% of stocks are. During peaks in 2023, over 70% were. Peaks in 2024: 80s or 90s in terms of percentage. But during the 2025 peak: 70% only, just like now. So with each new record high, fewer and fewer stocks are participating. Market tops are impossible to call, but market bottoms are easier because of the panic and fear. Euphoria dies off slowly. 

Two key components. One is valuation, and one is sentiment. Sentiment just doesn't want to give up. Part of the reason shows up when you look at the bond market -- it hasn't been a great place to be over the last 2-4 years, but the stock market has. 

Some may be saying that if inflation keeps rearing its ugly head, and central bankers actually increase rates, that's going to hit my bond portfolio. I'm already only making a 3-4% yield, and now may be taking a capital hit. I might as well go into growth assets -- earnings and operating margins keep going up, unemployment rate is low, governments keep spending. (He hates to say this, but the war is actually good for the economy.)

People are saying this has been the best game in town, so why stop? Especially when they don't see any clouds forming.