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Garner was bearish on gold, but now expects a relief rally. Autumn tends to be a good time to own gold, thanks to the Indian festival and wedding season and China's golden week celebration. Seasonally, gold rallies from late September to late October. Higher inflation leads to higher gold, because investors can park their money into this hard asset that retains its power as a currency's purchasing power diminishes. But when oil prices soar, they push up treasury yields and pressure gold. Conversely, when oil prices and yields/rates come down, it pushes up gold. Gold trades in lockstep with the 10-year yield. If gold holds at $4,150, it will rebound to $4,500-4,650.

Value of the CAD
For the better part of the last decade, he's been critical of policy coming out of Ottawa. He thinks there's change afoot, and he likes what he sees.

The CAD right now faces a lot of headwinds. There's talk of Quebec potentially separating and now Alberta. While those events probably won't happen, at least in the next decade, they're still headwinds (which should be put to rest in short order). USMCA and tariffs are also big headwinds. The international community has a general sense that Canada's uninvestable. A lot of these things are seeing light at the end of the tunnel, and eventually we're going to get a trade deal.

The CAD is pretty cheap here. If he were an international investor, he'd tell people to look at Canada. As Canadians, we already own Canadian dollars. But in your investment account, you probably own MSFT or the S&P 500, or some ETFs related to that.

Interest rates and the price of oil are, historically, very correlated with the CAD. Right now, we're barely above 70 cents. He believes the fair value is closer to 80. Thinks we'll get there in the next 2-5 years, with the policy changes happening in Ottawa today. USMCA will be solved, Canada will win, but we'll be past it.

A lot of the headwinds in Canada are now potential tailwinds.

Look at ZSP vs. ZUE. In a registered account, ZSP (unhedged) was a benefit over ZUE (hedged). It's now time to have your foreign exposure in US dollars hedged back to CAD. Your breakeven is about 1.4% a year as the interest rate differential (a variable that changes over time).

Valuations of all banks are extended. Potential credit cycle looming in next 12-18 months, and banks will typically take it on the chin. Not getting the 5-7% yields of yesteryear, so you're not being paid to hold something open to a credit event.