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The Fed is the most important factor in the market now, and it's going the wrong way. There will be a better time to buy than now.

When the market bottomed in mid-2022 and the rally that followed, the market mostly was above the 200-day moving average, despite a few corrections. When a market gets cheap, about 10-30% of stocks trade are above the 200-day. Presently, 59% of stocks are. During peaks in 2023, over 70% were. Peaks in 2024: 80s or 90s in terms of percentage. But during the 2025 peak: 70% only, just like now. So with each new record high, fewer and fewer stocks are participating. Market tops are impossible to call, but market bottoms are easier because of the panic and fear. Euphoria dies off slowly. 

Two key components. One is valuation, and one is sentiment. Sentiment just doesn't want to give up. Part of the reason shows up when you look at the bond market -- it hasn't been a great place to be over the last 2-4 years, but the stock market has. 

Some may be saying that if inflation keeps rearing its ugly head, and central bankers actually increase rates, that's going to hit my bond portfolio. I'm already only making a 3-4% yield, and now may be taking a capital hit. I might as well go into growth assets -- earnings and operating margins keep going up, unemployment rate is low, governments keep spending. (He hates to say this, but the war is actually good for the economy.)

People are saying this has been the best game in town, so why stop? Especially when they don't see any clouds forming.