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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Table View - Opinions in Detail

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Implied Signal Stock Symbol Company Comment Source Program Airdate Airdate Price Opinions $ Goal Expert Program Topic Expert's Bias Own or Relationship Actions
  
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-09-10 $0.020

Markets: There is some risk that the EU bond buying doesn't happen. On the 13th you get the result of the meeting when they decide. His view is that castles are being built in sand. He thinks they need significant austerity in the US because they can't afford to carry the debt there. Structural reforms needed and will be difficult in the US. Thinks there is some risk to the Euro currency.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-09-10 $0.020

GOLD: The easiest choice for Governments is to print more money. He doesn't see that changing. Gold is not going to be a straight ride up; there could be a 20% correction at some point. It depends on your ability to handle the volatility. Long term the trends are up. If you can handle it, look to handle dips and market reversals. As long as you think the trend is up you are going to have less downside volatility. Seasonal trends are positive until the end of October for Gold. QE3 never went away. They may launch it in 2013.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-09-10 $0.020

China and India Trip: Tried to talk to local people. China is in for a bit of a harder landing than people think. It has been quite developed quite a bit but he thinks there is over capacity. Condos with 30-40% occupancy. There has been a lot of over capacity. There is room for more roads and so on. But government counts for 50% of GDP. Over next 5 years. Horrified by sewers and there is lots of room for infrastructure spending. India has room for massive growth compared to China. Universal thoughts were that Government is too corrupt. India and China are 40% of world population. Other Asian countries have more room for growth.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-09-17 $0.020

Markets:

 

Junk Bond ETFs. There has been massive growth in this area. Hedge funds use high yield bonds. E.g. JNK-N. The yield is historically low right now. It will add some volatility. There is a lot of money going into this sector because of the need for yield.

 

The French have been downgraded like the US. They are being counted on along with Germany to save the basket of European countries. Germany cannot save the whole Euro region on their own, so he is really watching France.

 

Hong Kong has massively unsustainable real estate pricing. There are real estate bubbles in a lot of places.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-09-17 $0.020

Markets and the Fiscal Cliff: Governments are choosing to monetize debt. They are trying to smooth out the 'bad'. QE is like a sugar high. Now the fed is looking out 3 years, not 6 months like before. This is good for gold. It will not go up in a straight line. We will go through periods where the economic numbers do improve. You have to be a trader. It's not as easy as buying and holding here.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-09-24 $0.020

Markets: Australian dollar is being bought. Money is flowing into those currencies that will most benefit from the stimulus. FXA-N is an ETF that tracks the Australian dollar. Australia is a big exporter to China. He thinks we are looking at a hard landing in China. Shanghai index moved up substantially in a year and a half in 2007/08 and then bottomed early and peaked again in third quarter of 2009 and then has been going down every since. You need to pay attention to this index. Thinks China and India will struggle for the next couple of years. In Europe you have banks reforming for some time and they are not aligning on how to do it. They have to get rid of the debt problems and there are no solutions except to cut, cut, cut and those are austerity measures. Governments have to make tough choices and they are not doing it.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-09-24 $0.020

Educational Segment: Canadian Retail Investor Sentiment: The cycle of market emotions. https://educatedtrader.com/: You can participate in the sentiment survey and education videos. There are no really good surveys for the Canadian investor. Only those that participate can see the results. He wants you to become a member of the site. Has a few hundred so far and wants a few thousand across Canada.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN Yes View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-01 $0.020

Numbers out of China are starting to weaken.  Seeing weakness in Japan manufacturing for last number of years.  Europe is showing contracting numbers.  US manufacturing is showing some decay.  S&P: It's what you are willing to pay for the earnings. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-01 $0.020

Nat. Gas: Forward prices are in the 4-4.5% range for next year but he thinks this is on the high side. Trading in the next couple of weeks is positive on. (HNU-T)

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-01 $0.020

US Hedging in ETFs: You can't hedge your own portfolio unless you have millions and millions. ETFs can lock in a currency contract for each month.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-01 $0.020

Education Segment: QE infinity: 2.8 Trillion in Fed now and if they buy these bonds it will hit 4 Trillion. He is wildly bullish about gold, not as much gold stocks but gold for sure. Different types of inflation: (1) Demand Pull: not enough supply; (2) Cost Push:Wages dramatically stronger than the cost of hiring extra workers; (3) Pricing Power: eg. Apple can charge $899 for phones; (4) Sectoral: When Fed does QE and money gets into system and rise in oil prices leaks into other industries. US dollar will remain the reserve currency for years and years to come because there is no alternative.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-15 $0.020

Markets. Investors are going to keep expecting central banks to 'stir the pot'. The economy is not strong. The unemployment rate is coming down because people are leaving the labour force. They need to keep mortgage rates as low as possible so the housing market can recover. Lumber stocks are a speculative trade. They will rally in expectation of things being fixed in housing. S&P earnings went down if you exclude the banks. You are starting to see that earnings momentum is slowing down. IMF said it will be slower for the next 4 to 5 years. We are in for a bit of a harder landing globally and it is because of global debt. More and more S&P earnings are from global earnings so it is a benchmark for the world. If the fiscal cliff comes in we have a GDP recession next year in the US.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-15 $0.020

Educational Segment. S&P closed last week at a very key trend-line. Last year coming off the lows in October, market came up and held the trend-line for a couple of weeks, broke inter-week and closed above. Trend-lines are interesting because you get an opportunity to put in a trade with a fairly tight stop. Thinks the market grinds higher into the end of the year even though expectations for earnings are lower. If we close back below 1420 then we start to get nervous.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-22 $0.020

Markets.  The race is tightening up according to the US election polls. Big political decisions could change the outlook for the markets. Republicans are perceived to be better for the stock market. Thinks US will be downgraded next year by S&P. Sales are dropping for the first time since the recession. IMF saying GDP will be just over 3%. If the fiscal cliff in the US is implemented, that will be a 1 or 1-1/2% recession in the US. Looking at IBM, you have the potential for a major top. Maybe there is one more leg up in the US market.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-22 $0.020

Bonds. If you are not worried about a 10% pullback in the stock market and need the dividends, then stay with it, otherwise a bond may be correct.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-22 $0.020

Educational Segment. Inflation. They have changed the way they calculated it. Once in the 80s and again in the 90s. Tires today last longer than they did decades ago so the fact that they went up in price does not indicate an actual inflation rate. Inflation is 5.5% using the pre-1990 method but is 2% using today's method. US GDP would have gone way down using the old way of calculating inflation but using today's method it has gone up.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-29 $0.020

Markets. The US budget office has come out and said if the government implements everything it will cause a 1 to 1-1/2% recession next year. If the US does not make some tough decisions soon, there is a big hurricane going to hit the US bond market as the US gets downgraded again. The US will still remain the reserve currency, though.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-29 $0.020

Election. If Romney wins and were to fire Bernanke, it would be quite a shock to the world. Only in that case is there a risk to gold.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-10-29 $0.020

Education Segment. Support Levels. e.g. Look at previous highs and lows, trend-lines, moving averages. Retracements. You can look at a lot of things, but it has to be relevant to the time frame you are trading in. No one's system is a sure thing.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-05 $0.020

Markets: Nothing is a given in this environment as to what the market will do after the election. If things weaken off here, what are they going to do? People are saying you have to fix the fiscal cliff. They have to balance the budget. But this is not the time. Romney would be better for the economy and the markets. It looks like Obama is ahead in the polls at this point. The G20 are going to send a message to the US regarding the fiscal cliff. They will say this is not the time and kick the can down the road but middle of next year the US debt will be downgraded and that will not be good for the markets.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-05 $0.020

Emerging Markets ETFs: Second tier: EWM-N, IDX-N, THD-N, TUR-N are well suited, good demographics. But these would fall if the US fumble the fiscal cliff.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-05 $0.020

Educational Segment: Covered Call Strategy. He is very bullish on covered calls. You have to focus on time decay, volatility (Vix Indicators), do the timing. His guest talked about her approach. Sweet spot is from 3 to zero months because you loose 60% of the premium in that time (25-45days). Do it several times per year. REIT focus Canadian and US. e.g. IYR-N

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-12 $0.020

Markets. It is all about the fiscal cliff.  Usually after the election you get a celebration, but a little pop into the end of the year and he thinks that is coming but markets are having to digest what is happening with the fiscal cliff and taxes.  They are going to kick the can down the road.  Thinks they will hammer out a compromise.  

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-12 $0.020

Education Segment.  Fiscal Cliff.  Base line scenario is US will have a $612 billion deficit and there will be deficits through 2022.  Alternate forecast - if they do nothing it will be $1 Trillion Deficit next year.  Debt will get downgraded.  2013 does not look good, not globally either.  There will have to be a deal.  If they raise the dividend tax, that could hurt the stock market, but he thinks instead they will increase the tax on the rich.  See http://www.cbo.gov/

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY No View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-19 $0.020

Markets. There has been a real spike up in bearish sentiment recently.  The percentage of bears got to the highest level this year (45%)  Maybe they do a deal on the fiscal year and maybe they don’t, but the problems in Spain have not been fixed.  If you get Spanish bonds above 6% then they start to get into trouble.  Unemployment is over 50% for youth under 25. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NOT APPLICABLE BEARISH _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-19 $0.020

Stocks one by one are starting to roll over which is indicative of the top of a bull market.  We are 42 months into the bull market cycle. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NOT APPLICABLE BEARISH _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-19 $0.020

Oil.  Double leverage ones are not good for long-term holding.  He says that almost every week on the show.  XEG couple bounce back to 16 -1/4 area.  Oil shouldn’t go a lot higher unless something terrible happens in the middle east.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NOT APPLICABLE BEARISH _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-19 $0.020

Educational Segment.  What is your favorite indicator.  He has no one favourite indicator that makes it easy for everyone.  There are lots of them.  Some work 50% of the time and others work the other 50% of the time.  You have trend, momentum, seasonal and cycles, breath, sentiment, chart patterns and volume indicators.  He likes to take one from each area; MC Oscillator is one he likes.  It looks at breadth of market – those going up vs those going down and looks at momentum.  It always lines up with market bottoms and turning points.  It says the market is so oversold that the potential for a turn is indicated.  It does not say how far or how long the market will go up.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NOT APPLICABLE BEARISH _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-19 $0.020

Santa Claus Rally.  They are going to do a deal and raise taxes on the rich a little.  They need major structural and tax reform.  He doesn’t see those reforms being made.  We get sideways at best 2013.  Thinks there is an earnings shock coming.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NOT APPLICABLE BEARISH _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-26 $0.020

Markets. Mark Carney is in fact going to be the head of the Bank of England.  He wants to curb speculation in real estate in Canada.  Consumers are too indebted and he is suggesting he might have to hike interest rates.  With oil where it is, the Canadian dollar should be about 5% lower and he thinks it will slide over the next while.  The 13% increase in Thanksgiving spending tells you shoppers were eagerly looking for deals. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on CANADIAN$ _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-26 $0.020

Gold.  CGL-T is a gold bullion ETF.  GLD-N if you want US$.  A number of funds also hold gold.  For trading they are more than adequate.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on CANADIAN$ Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-11-26 $0.020

Educational Segment. PRICE of GOLD.  If you take the 4 biggest country balance sheets and compare to their GDP, it is about 36%.  Historically that has been about 15%.  Central banks need a certain amount on their books to control the money supply.  They are creating money and taking the bonds from the system to expand their balance sheet.  With the commitments they have made, the percentage of GDP will rise to about 50%.  They will do this for years and years until we get out of this economic malaise.  Recently, we broke out of a triangle pattern in the price of gold.  Take the height of the consolidation and add it to the break-out point.  He thinks $2050 would be the target for gold by end of 2013 if central banks do what they say.  There will be 30% annualized volatility in Gold over the next few years.  But Gold will generally keep going higher and higher in general.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on CANADIAN$ Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-03 $0.020

Markets. Not sure if it is a cliff or a little avalanche.  It is a broad increase in income taxes.  If they do nothing then next year there will be a recession.  They have to pass this.  Whether they like it or not it has to happen.  You will have sluggish economic numbers for a couple of years.  The S7P would be at a new high if it were not for the financials.  If they were participating in this rally, then we would be way up.  Corporate financials are way up.  Next year depends on the choices they make.  Volatility for sure.  They are trying to kick the can down the road. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A CAUTIOUS _N/A View
COMMENT A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-03 $0.020

Rails in the US.  They are beaten down and he just bought some in the last few weeks.  NSC-N as an example.  Kind of ok here.  We will be into a choppy trading range for the next year.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs CAUTIOUS Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-03 $0.020

Educational Segment.  Brokers and Advisors having Fiduciary Relationship.  Vast majority of advisors and brokers are not a portfolio manager and so do not. Portfolio managers have discretion over portfolios.  Advisors have an obligation to their employer.  If they sell something they don’t get paid.  However, there is value in an advisor getting clients to put money into a mutual find instead of spending it.  Debt levels are growing and growing in Canada because kids coming out of school are not taught even how to balance a cheque book. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs CAUTIOUS No View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-10 $0.020

Markets. Italy is the most indebted in Europe in US dollar terms.  Thinks people in Europe will vote for less austerity and that would be tremendously disruptive.  If bond returns go more than 6% there, it will be stress on the markets.  If the EU lets Italy go, then Spain would be next.  If they can’t grow they can’t fix this thing.  The next few weeks could be pretty plain sailing for investors and the US should kick the can down the road.  When Q4 earnings come out maybe the markets go for a new dip next year.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A CAUTIOUS _N/A View
COMMENT A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-10 $0.020

The fed has an unlimited ability to create money.  Central banks around the world provide as much liquidity as possible to get us through this. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A CAUTIOUS Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-10 $0.020

Educational Segment.  Employment Situation.  In Canada we got a monster Canadian job number last month.  He thinks there is something wrong with the data series because it doesn’t swing that much, so he doesn’t trust current employment numbers.  In the US we know there is a big problem.  1in 6.5 people are on food stamps.  How is that economy booming?  Corporate margins are the best they have ever been because they are laying people off.  From 1940 there is growth in the labour force but in the last decade it has leveled off.  Forget them kicking the can down the road on the fiscal cliff.  They have to make a lot of reforms and they are not making the hard choices for the next decade.  Markets will go up and down.  P/Es on dividend stocks are going way up and that is not sustainable.  You have to be an active trader. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A CAUTIOUS _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-17 $0.020

Markets. Japan is pressing ahead with a program of QE.  They have been doing this forever.  He thinks they have to do these things.  The markets are not responding.  He has never seen bigger dichotomy about the future than now for 2013.  A wide, wide range.  Does EU fix itself? The US? He doesn’t think so, but liquidity can keep the markets going for a while.  TSX has no net gains for 5 years. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A CAUTIOUS _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-17 $0.020

Educational Comment. Outlook for TSX in 2013.  The TSX is a concentrated index.  You have to look at energy.  It is 25% of TSX.  What is crude oil going to do?  Every forecast seems to be downgrading economic global growth.  There has been no growth in the TSX for 5 years.  The best to expect from energy is sideways.  Financials are at the top end of their range.  Maybe 5% upside next year.  Materials – potential upside for gold but dragged down by others in the sector.  It will be range bound also.  That is 85% of the TSX in the top three sectors.  Another year of nothing.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A CAUTIOUS _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-24 $0.020

Markets. We are seeing a Santa Clause Rally and he expects it to continue until January 16th.  The bad news is what happens the year after a president is elected.  The seasonality says the markets go down significantly until mid February, then later in the year go up.  And we have the fiscal cliff and it will have impact during the first quarter.  Seasonally, the TSE has gone up for the last 10 years at this time (3% average).  You have [the end of] tax loss selling, end of year window dressing and small investors have a chance to invest when institutions are away for the holidays.  There are year-end bonuses to invest.  Once we get over the fiscal cliff, the uncertainties will disappear and markets could move up significantly.  They will do all the things that have to be done by Jan 1 and then do the really big things later on.

Don Vialoux NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs BULL _N/A View
BUY A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-24 $0.020

Uranium Stocks. The price of Uranium has gone down until two weeks ago.  The price bottomed and then the price went up 10%.  Seasonality for these stocks is middle of December to May each year..

Don Vialoux NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs BULL Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-24 $0.020

Educational Segment. Small Caps.  Seasonal period is December 19 until March 7 each year (26 of 33 years).  Tax loss selling is out of the way, institutional investors hold the highest quality securities at the end of year and then at the beginning of the year they tend to take on more risk.  IWM-US is the most actively traded ETF for the Russel 2000.  XCS-T is the non-top-60 companies in Canada.  The fiscal cliff and the post-US-Election does not change this investment thesis.

Don Vialoux NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs BULL _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-31 $0.020

Markets. Presidents tend to do the most difficult things after they are elected.  The first quarter of a post-election year is normally a down quarter.  The good news is what happens through April/May (over 20 elections cycles / TSX) and another movement into the summer time. 

Don Vialoux TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OPTIMISTIC _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2012-12-31 $0.020

Silver. Moves in January and February, average 12% up.  Silver is in the process of bottoming, wait for it to cross the 20 day moving average.

Don Vialoux TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OPTIMISTIC _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-01-07 $0.020

Markets. More Bullish on the NHL than on the economy.  Chain weighted inflation artificially keeps inflation lower – people buy a different brand because it is on sale that week.  Fiscal Cliff: In the US they will fumble the ball.  We will focus on earnings until February and then get back to the Fiscal Cliff (debt Ceiling).  He wants to talk, though, on opportunities for 2013.  Make sure you have enough cash that you can take advantage of opportunities.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-01-07 $0.020

Educational Segment. Investor Advocacy.  In the end it is the client with the money that doesn’t get a fair end of the shake by the industry.  There is not good disclosure about fees charged.  Investors need to understand changes taking place.  Advisors don’t have a fiduciary responsibility to the client to show performance. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A BEARISH on US ECONOMY _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-01-14 $0.020

Markets. There is a lot of scrutiny on the placing of audits these days.  Would not be surprised at more law suits regarding companies missing at audits.  The roll of the audit is increasingly important from the point of the view of the market.  Every time Obama speaks, markets react badly.  He doesn’t expect much today as he will speak on the 29th in a state-of-the-union address.  [Obama’s address is essentially expected to pre-empt all or part of today’s Berman’s Call]  The debt limit has to go up and has to keep going up and up until they balance the budget.  Don’t expect anything different. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-01-21 $0.020

Educational Segment.  There is a push for transparency on fees.  ETFs are great that way.  Nobody works for free.  Front end load says you pay the fee upfront when buying a fund.  A deferred sales charge charges the client when they get out.  ‘F’ class is where the fee is charged outside of the funds.  

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-01-21 $0.020

Markets.  When Obama came in he had to deal with the financial crisis, but this term he has to deal with a divided house and the grid lock.  February will be very interesting.  He thinks the US can fix a lot of these issues but they have to make hard choices.  They are going to kick the can down the road and this could overhang the markets much of 2013.  The markets are acting well and we are making new highs now.  But the market is going to test the highs from 2000 and 2007.  As we start to get stronger we should consider taking some money off the table.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-01-21 $0.020

Double bull and bear ETFs.  If the markets are trending, then holding them works in your favour.  But if they go up and down on the way up, it really hurts the NAV in rebalancing.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-01-28 $0.020

Markets.  In 2011 they got together and could not agree on how to deal with the debt ceiling.  They have done a deal again.  Their credit rating is on ‘outlook negative’.  1553 high in 2000 before collapse of tech bubble.  In 2007 it went higher when rate did an emergency rate cut and then last Friday it went above 1550.  Things are stable and markets can move higher when markets are stable, but he doesn’t think printing money is ok long-term.  It may make sense to take a little bit off the table. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-01-28 $0.020

Educational Segment. How to Manage an ETF Portfolio.  Maryanne Wiley is the Guest.  Look at 2012.  Record inflows into the category.  ETFs worldwide passed the two $trillion mark last week.  There is talk of investors not getting back into the markets but now they are getting back in and choosing to use some ETFs.  Transparency is important as is access.  They provide better ways to do so.  Investors are becoming wiser, living longer and need more money to get through retirement.  They can increase returns or reduce costs and ETFs do a little bit of both.  There are lots of places you can learn more together about the products or how to put together a portfolio. 

 

Diversified Income Portfolio:

Ticker

Weight

Yield

XCB

10%

3.76%

XGB

10%

2.88%

XHB

10%

5.48%

XHY

10%

5.88%

XLB

10%

3.84%

Year

 2012

 2011

Average:

Return

8.87%

 7.20%

 8.08%

Std Dev:

2.81

3.88

3.26

 

Aggressive Portfolio (Approximately the weighting of the world, for someone who has a number of years to retirement):

Ticker

Weight

Yield

XEM

15%

1.40%

XIC

10%

1.98%

XIN

35%

1.58%

XSP

30%

2.01%

XSU

10%

1.84%

Year

2012

2011

Average:

Return

15.73%

 -8.14%

 3.09%

Std Dev:

11.05

15.13

13.35

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-02-04 $0.020

Markets.  On Friday a German Finance minister said the Euro crisis is not over.  The markets are responding a little to that.  Many markets, other than Canada, are a bit overbought.  Maybe the markets are due for a little bit of correction.  The world is probably not going to grumble but there could be some anxiety during the summer months.  If someone is worried about a 5% correction over the next month or two, maybe they should take some money off the table.  The amount varies by investor.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-02-04 $0.020

Educational Segment. Managing your own money better.  Most people are interested in how to manage an income portfolio, e.g.:

ETF

Yield

Std.Dev.

CBO

3.75%

1.10%

VAB

3.98%

3.82%

XHB

5.48%

7.80%

XHY

5.88%

9.25%

XLB

3.84%

11.90%

Avg. Yield: 4.20%, Std.Dev. 7.25%. 

Above would be equally weighted with dividend portfolio, e.g.:

ETF

Yield

Std.Dev.

ZDV

4.19%

8.91%

XIU

2.16%

12.01%

ZUT

5.04%

9.22%

CPD

4.42%

1.97%

XRE

4.86%

9.18%

Avg. Yield: 4.20%, Std.Dev. 7.25%. 

The different bond ETFs have different volatilities.  The reward people can get is defined by the risk they can take. 

You can shift between bonds and equities without making a significant change in the yield.  You have to re-balance your portfolio from time to time.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-02-11 $0.020

Markets.  The fed has a plan to unwind their balance sheet when the time comes.  But what happens to interest rates if they push two trillion back off the balance sheets.  That would really hurt the housing recovery.  They won’t do this until they are sure the economy can handle it.  Earnings are coming back and corporate America is very lean.  That is because interest rates are low and margins are at an all time high. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
COMMENT A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-02-11 $0.020

Global Investing Timing.  The main considerations are the differences in the currencies.  If there is a significant depreciation it hurts your return.  If the markets are going to be weak, then the Canadian dollar will fall against other currencies. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
BUY A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-02-11 $0.020

Gold. It depends on risk tolerance.  Gold stocks are cheap here.  Short term vulnerability, but up to two years it is higher than today. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN Unknown View
Unspecified A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-02-11 $0.020

Juniors.  Are not his favourite space.  You have to know the stories and an insider.  He can’t add a lot of value.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN Unknown View
N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert Berman's Call 2013-02-11 $0.020

Educational Segment.  Trends in ETFs.  The big buzz is the move into active ETFs.  About 4% at present.  Active means it is not based on an index.  Horizons in Canada (alpha series) is the biggest.  An example is one based on seasonality (HAC-T or HAG-T).  You have to look at them carefully.  You have to know the manager with these types of ETFs.  They are expecting more ETFs to shut down than are launched this year because they aren’t successful. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA N/A UNKNOWN _N/A View
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