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Middle Eastern production is down 7.5 million barrels per day, we have forfeited nearly 4.5 million barrels cumulative of Mideast production, and exports out of the Strait of Hormuz are 12-20 million barrels daily (if you trust the White House) though 7-8 M are more likely. So, now we can't drawn much more production, and Iran is aware of this. Also, Ukraine is blasting Russia, which lowers oil refining, and the Houthis are attacking Saudi refineries. Diesel prices are up 60% the past year and gas is up 40%. China saved the oil market by dropping their imports by 5.5 million barrels per day, which is massive. We may see weakness in the refined product, but the strength will transfer to the oil price. Everything is on the table: oil prices could soar past $100, 120, 130, 140, 150. This war was supposed to last 2 weeks, and now it's month 7. We are in a critically dangerous area for oil. A key risk is bad US policy from now till the US Midterms. The US 10-year is at 4.8%. 5% is the red-light level. Energy is the biggest inflationary factor. The oil price is high, Trump has only a 33% approval rating heading into Midterms, and the is very unpopular with both sides of the House. Bad policy would be a crude or diesel export ban, or a TACO that will result in a massive loss.