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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Recent Opinions

Date Signal Company Expert Opinion Price
2014-04-24 TOP PICK AutoCanada Inc.
ACQ-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Are buying dealership after dealership. Biggest problem is if auto sales slow down. With the currency, it would be hard for a private owner to compete with them when it comes time to buy a dealership.


Price: $62.020
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 PAST TOP PICK Yushiro Chemical
5013-JP
Lorne Steinberg

(A Top Pick April 30/13. Up 10.36%.) At the current share price, it is basically selling for its net cash and half of its net cash plus Accounts Receivable so you are getting this electronics company basically for free. This company has huge upside and has just barely started to move.


Price: $0.000
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 TOP PICK Topre Corporation
5975 Tokyo
Lorne Steinberg

Tokyo exchange so we don't track.


Price: $0.000
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 DON'T BUY Panasonic Corp
6752-TO
Lorne Steinberg

They are suffering from the same things that Sony is, that is they are totally out of touch with consumer tastes. This remains a huge issue for some of these companies. Earnings are going to improve simply because of the depreciation of the yen, but the reality is that there are serious problems with their model and their products and they require a massive overhaul.


Price: $7.240
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-23 COMMENT Hosiden Corp
6804-JP
Lorne Steinberg

A net cash story. How can you not like a company where you are getting, for a fraction, an underlying company? This one offers huge upside. Earnings are poised to take off again.


Price: $0.000
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Lorne Steinberg

Markets. Stock markets have had a great run in the last couple of years. This is not just due to corporate earnings, but is also due to price/earnings inflation. Valuations are simply more expensive. With the prospect of interest rates rising at some point and if the Fed tapering continues, that will put pressure on some equity prices. Also, corporate earnings have been somewhat disappointing for some of the large mega international multinational companies. His equity fund is about 30% cash because he is having trouble finding good things to buy. He still finds value in Japan, but a lot of the companies have moved up quite substantially. Also, seeing value in European financials.


Price: $0.020
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-23 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Lorne Steinberg

Interest Rates. The 10 year bond yield rose after Ben Bernanke’s famous comment last June. Since then, the reserve board has done everything it can to ensure and talk investors into believing rates will remain low. 10 year bond yields have actually declined in the US to about 2.5% so investors have become quite comfortable for the next 2-3 years. They believe interest rates will stay low so ETFs like SPDR Barclays High-Yield (JNK-N) and iShares Hi Yield Corp Bond (HYG-N) ETFs have come back up again as people begin to feel they are not going to suffer any capital losses. This is the same with preferred shares.


Price: $0.020
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-23 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Lorne Steinberg

Convertible bonds. What is your best suggestion in the five-year maturity range with reasonable yield and liquidity? After the massive run-up in equity markets, he can’t find any value in convertible bonds. Anything decent is trading at a huge premium because share prices have risen up, therefore yields are extremely low. He does not find this area attractive at all at the present time.


Price: $0.020
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-23 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Bruce Campbell (2)

Markets.  It is rare that we see buying in favour of selling 2:1.  It means there is a good move ahead for the markets.  We did a sprint, the market is consolidating and then it should move higher over the next few months.  He has a diversified portfolio.  Looks for earnings growth on an accelerating basis.  Mid caps are most attractive to him because of his analysis method.  Early stage equities are giving up some strength to the later stage equities. 


Price: $0.020
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-23 PAST TOP PICK Alcoa
AA-N
Lorne Steinberg

(A Top Pick April 30/13. Up 60.91%.) Feels that this is just on the cusp. After aluminum companies have shut in a lot of high cost aluminum, supply is declining somewhat and demand is poised to take off in the next couple of years because of US auto demand is rising. To him, their peak earnings will be $2.50-$3 a share. In the past, when earnings have been at this level, this has been a $30 stock.


Price: $13.630
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 PAST TOP PICK Air Canada (B)
AC.B-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

(Top Pick Oct 16/13, Up 54.31%) He doesn’t like airlines for the long term, but their earnings were ramping up late last year and this year.


Price: $7.700
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 PAST TOP PICK AutoCanada Inc.
ACQ-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

(Top Pick Oct 16/13, Up 61.98%) 33 dealerships of 3400 in Canada.  This is their potential clientele.  Ford is one dealership that they do not have.  Just made inroads into GM.  Many of the owners are looking for an exit strategy.  You could see someone else start this, but they have to be an auto dealership now.  The other thing is access to capital.  ACQ has that.  Every time they make an acquisition, they are accretive.  The only thing to worry about is if auto sales start to slow down.


Price: $62.020
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 COMMENT Alimentation Couche-Tard (B)
ATD.B-T
Lorne Steinberg

Always had thought it was a lousy business, low margin convenience stores, but this one has done an absolutely outstanding job. The only successful Canadian retailer that has been successful in the US. Earnings keep driving higher. He could never buy it at the valuation it is trading at, but kudos to management.


Price: $30.730
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 PAST TOP PICK Alimentation Couche-Tard (B)
ATD.B-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

(Top Pick Oct 16/13, Up 33.32%) The founder stepped down.  It is a growth by acquisition story and there are always questions as to whether they can pull off the next one.  Management has a great track record.  There is still room to go.


Price: $30.730
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 COMMENT Bank of America
BAC-N
Lorne Steinberg

All of the earnings for the US banks are showing 2 things. On one side, all the big money center banks like this one, are showing some increased earnings, but the reason, in part, is that they are taking out reserves for bad loans. The economy has improved and now they are unwinding those reserves. It is not really core earnings improvement. They are also suffering from the new rules that will apply to their use of capital. He is somewhat neutral on these banks and prefers the European ones, which look a lot cheaper.


Price: $16.370
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 COMMENT BP PLC
BP-N
Lorne Steinberg

This is probably the cheapest of the major oil/gas companies still suffering under the shadow of the Macondo spill. About a quarter of their production is in Russia, which is always a risk. The healthy dividend is rock solid. Focused solely now on driving shareholder value so there will probably be share buybacks and dividend increases. Trading at a very cheap valuation.


Price: $48.810
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 WATCH Canadian Energy Services & Technology
CEU-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Ranks well in his process.  He might take a look at it in the summer.


Price: $31.410
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 HOLD Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
CM-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

You can’t go too wrong with banks over the long term.  This is a solid business, although they don’t have the capital markets that others have.  A good hold with nice dividend yield and some growth.  He holds no banks.


Price: $95.650
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 BUY on WEAKNESS Crescent Point Energy Corp
CPG-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Thought there would be some upside when he was on in October.  The numbers they are producing are better and he thinks they will produce higher and that the stock will also go a little higher.


Price: $44.420
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 TOP PICK Cisco
CSCO-Q
Lorne Steinberg

This is a value manager’s dream because Wall Street hates this company. All analysts have downgraded it. When he looks at it, he sees a company with about 30% of the market cap in net cash. Earnings will have flattened this year at around $1.95-$2 level. This company remains #1 in the world in all of their businesses. Have tremendous scale. Great management team. Earnings are poised to rebound in 2015, partly due to just general tech spending increases especially in their area. Yield of 3.25%.


Price: $23.500
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 DON'T BUY Cooper Tire & Rubber
CTB-N
Lorne Steinberg

In the replacement tire business so are not selling tires to car manufacturers, but to garages, etc. They were involved for a while in a takeover bid that didn’t pan out. Not a great business really. Earnings should be fairly stable for the next couple of years, but there is not enough upside for him.


Price: $25.430
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-23 TOP PICK Concordia Healthcare
CXR-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Continue to be a growth by acquisition story.  Buy drugs that are just coming off patent.  Have a similar structure to Valiant. 


Price: $23.490
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 COMMENT DirectCash Payments Inc
DCI-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

He compares them to DH-T.  This has a strong management team.  Could be an interesting time to enter if you are a value investor.


Price: $14.500
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 COMMENT Dollarama Inc.
DOL-T
Lorne Steinberg

A great Canadian retailer that has been wildly successful. Management has done a fantastic job in exploiting this niche and building its business. This is reflected in the share price and he can’t buy anything like this that is trading over 20X earnings.


Price: $90.700
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-23 HOLD Enterprise Group
E-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Has held in the past, but not now.  They are growth by acquisition and by being the right service sector.  If LNG and Nat Gas boom continues then numbers will start to get higher.  Petrowest jumps at him a little more – it screens better.


Price: $1.080
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 SELL Element Financial
EFN-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Recently sold it because of the ranking in his model.  Another growth by acquisition story. 


Price: $13.840
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 WATCH Exchange Income
EIF-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Held in the past.  Exited when they had issues around the cell tower company and that issue has been overhanging them for some time.  Dividend is safe.  As soon as numbers improve he would be in.


Price: $19.380
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 COMMENT Callaway Golf
ELY-N
Lorne Steinberg

Have been suffering with a turnaround for years now. Big Bertha was a revolutionary club when it came out. Nike (NKE-N) has made a huge push into golf and they are a brutal competitor. This is a consumer product type situation and rather narrowly focused. Golf is suffering a little bit with the economic malaise in the US. This will come down to whether management can pull off the turnaround. If they can, this will probably do reasonably well.


Price: $9.690
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-23 DON'T BUY Canyon Services Group
FRC-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Has owned it.  Continues to like the sector.  He went more into the producer sector than the services sector.


Price: $14.870
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 COMMENT IBM
IBM-N
Lorne Steinberg

Has really had no revenue growth for the last number of years, but have been generating earnings per share growth because they have very smart management, but also because they have been using their cash to buy back shares. Basically it is a zero growth company, but extremely well run. Has market leadership in the number of various including IP outsourcing. Neither cheap nor expensive and he doesn’t see huge upside. They will be suffering with a strong US$.


Price: $191.730
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 PAST TOP PICK Joy Global Inc.
JOY-N
Lorne Steinberg

(A Top Pick April 30/13. Up 9.98%.) This is a very cyclical company. They are probably the best in the world at what they do. They make equipment for global coal. He sees 40%-50% upside over the next 3 years.


Price: $61.600
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 TOP PICK Manulife Financial
MFC-T
Lorne Steinberg

The worst is over for this company. Earnings rebounded this year and he is looking at double digit earnings growth for 2015. To him, that means we are going to start seeing the dividend increasing again. They are suddenly doing everything right. Have a great global presence. Their whole hedging strategy, which caused them problems, has been well thought out and cleaned up. Dividend yield of 2.5%.


Price: $20.600
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 SELL Maple Leaf Foods
MFI-T
Lorne Steinberg

Has just undergone a major restructuring, pushed by a hedge fund. Sold their best asset, Canada Bread, the only real profitable part of this company. The meat business that is left is certainly a large business, but has struggled to make money for a number of years. Commodity-based businesses are very tough businesses.


Price: $18.430
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-23 STRONG BUY Mitel Networks
MNW-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

One of his Top Picks previously.  Thinks merger with Astra will create a lot of synergies for them.  Thinks their numbers continue to rise up.


Price: $10.220
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 HOLD Martinrea
MRE-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Does not rank well in his process because he is looking for earnings growth.  Looking at the sector you would think it would be doing better.  Thinks it will get back to $13 over time.  Their business has not changed based on allegations against management.  He replaced it with LNR-T.


Price: $11.200
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 COMMENT National Bank of Canada
NA-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Does not tend to rank well in his process.  This one has an interesting capital markets business and there is expansion room out west. 


Price: $45.320
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 DON'T BUY Open Text
OTC-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Ranks in the middle of his pack.  Not super keen on it.  A good earnings announcement could changes things. 


Price: $50.810
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 COMMENT Potash Corp of Saskatchewan
POT-T
Lorne Steinberg

There are rumours of a takeover by BHP which he was surprised to read, after the last time around. He does not like to buy a stock based on the possibility that there might be a takeover bid. If there was a takeover bid, it would go for much higher share price than what it is currently trading at.


Price: $38.350
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 BUY on WEAKNESS Rock Energy Inc.
RE-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Still holds it.  It is rock solid.  Management keeps guiding and hitting higher numbers.  Have lots of drilling locations in inventory.  It might have a period of consolidation, but management are doing a fantastic job.  There is a strong seasonality to oil and gas.


Price: $6.720
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 HOLD Redknee Solutions
RKN-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

An interesting business.  They saw a number of great contracts being signed.  We haven’t seen the numbers from them yet.  When they came out with them, the costs were higher than expected.  Management thinks you will see the numbers over the next few quarters.  He thinks it will recover.  He sold previously, but may consider again in the future.


Price: $5.050
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 COMMENT Banco Santander SA
SAN-N
Lorne Steinberg

Largest bank in Europe, but their major exposure is Spain as well as Latin America including Brazil and Argentina. High dividend yield which is supporting the share price. Not a cheap stock. Not that well situated compared to other banks that he is looking at. A rock solid bank and the dividend looks solid as well. 8.4% dividend yield.


Price: $9.800
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-23 BUY The Score Inc.
SCR-X
Bruce Campbell (2)

They have an app that tracks sports and is number 1.  They are seeing an uptick in users.  Ad revenue is going up. 


Price: $0.435
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 BUY Surge Energy Inc
SGY-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Likes it and thinks there is a lot of room to go.  No hedges so could really increase in the last little while.  Lots of insider buying recently. 


Price: $7.170
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 COMMENT Shinhan Financial Group
SHG-N
Lorne Steinberg

A domestic bank in Korea. Korea, unlike most emerging-market countries, is a net exporter so they don’t rely on foreign capital. Korea is very well-positioned and is more of a developed market more than any emerging-market. Earnings are poised to increase for all of the Korean banks.


Price: $44.640
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 TOP PICK Sensio Technologies Inc.
SIO-X
Bruce Campbell (2)

Allows TV manufacturers to put 3D into DC sets.  They have 4 of the 5 largest manufacturers in the world.  They have a service to stream 3D movies like NetFlix.


Price: $0.270
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 COMMENT Sunlife Financial
SLF-T
Lorne Steinberg

There is still upside in this stock. Earnings are poised to take a jump in 2015 for a variety of reasons. He is looking at this to increase its dividend again. In 2015 he is looking for 11X earnings which is still relatively cheap for a great company.


Price: $36.980
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-23 BUY Student Transport of America Ltd.
STB-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Ranks well in his process.  Thinks the dividend is fairly safe and there is some growth potential in this business.  More and more school districts are subbing it out to this company.  12% return expectation including dividend.


Price: $6.880
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-23 DON'T BUY Tricon Capital Group
TCN-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Has not owned it.  Ranks in the middle of the pack.  His concern is what are they going to do with all these homes that appreciated in price and what happens when all these hedge funds that acquired them decide to liquidate.


Price: $7.490
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 WEAK BUY TorstarCorp (B)
TS.B-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Dividend is safe.  His concern is the move from print to digital media.  He now thinks the dividend is safe.


Price: $6.630
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-23 HOLD Unilever PLC
UL-N
Lorne Steinberg

One of the global great consumer product companies. Not a cheap stock. Solid dividend and a rising dividend yield. This company has huge exposure to many interesting areas including emerging markets and many good niche areas.


Price: $44.190
Subject: VALUE STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-23 WATCH Western Forest Products Inc.
WEF-T
Bruce Campbell (2)

Just recently sold because of technical reasons.  It the price improved he would look at re-entering, perhaps $2.50-$2.60.  If housing continues to recover then this one will do well.


Price: $2.190
Subject: AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias: BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned: No
2014-04-22 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Colin Stewart

US Economy. Has been some recent concerns that there has been some slower data in the last few months, with some of it being weather related. The very harsh winter had a negative impact on certain sectors such as transportation and retailers. His view is that the US economy is gradually getting better with unemployment coming down, corporate earnings still growing and the federal reserve still relatively supportive with a very low interest-rate policy, which he thinks will be in place for some time. Earnings really have to kick in here to propel share prices higher. Corporate balance sheets, being very healthy, companies have more cash than they know what to do with. In today’s low interest-rate environment, for companies to be sitting on billions of dollars of cash earning a treasury bill rate, is not really doing shareholders a lot of good so he thinks there is a lot of pressure to put that cash to work. With CEOs more optimistic and feeling better about the economy, we will be seeing more and more deals for mergers and acquisitions.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-22 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Colin Stewart

US Housing. It seems like this has flat lined and taken a paused for a while. He sees another leg up soon. Timing is always elusive and difficult to figure out. Very simplistically many, many studies have shown that over a long period of time, the US needs about 1.3-1.5 million new homes built every year, just to keep up with population growth and immigration. Over the last several years, housing starts have been running at anywhere between 600,000 and 900,000 so not enough homes are being built to satisfy that natural demand. Thinks that over time there will have to be a reversion back to the mean and housing starts to go back to the 1.3-1.5 million range. (See Top Picks and Past Picks.)


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-22 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Jon Vialoux

Markets. We are getting to that time where it is “sell in May and go away”, but there are also the midterm elections throwing a range in the works. The average Sell date for May is the 5th, so we are approaching that time. The average decline in the summertime is a minor one at -0.02%, so it is not a given that the markets will decline in the summer. Actually 61% of the time they are positive during the summer. So the “sell in May and go away” is more or less a myth. It is a broad strategy in that you Sell the broad markets, and move to bonds and more defensive positions. However, there is a condition this year in that this is a midterm election year. These can cause a lot of volatility in the market between April 22 and Sept 30. Average decline for the S&P 500 is almost 5% and we have seen 10 of the past 16 midterm election years have had a correction of 10% or more. There is a very high probability this year that we are going to see the typical volatility in the summer. He is not expecting an end to the uptrend, but just a pull back. It has been 30 months since we have had a correction and we are certainly due for one. He is still fully invested, but has his finger on the trigger. During the summer, he becomes defensive and does not take on excess risk. He moves into things like consumers’ staples, healthcare, utilities, things that have a yield and even bonds tend to do well in the summertime.


Price: $0.020
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-22 HOLD Alcoa
AA-N
Colin Stewart

A very good, large cap aluminum producer levered to the US economy and into the global economy. There is a trend towards light weighting in cars as opposed to having a lot of steel in your cars. Feels it has good long-term prospects.


Price: $13.510
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 HOLD Alaris Royalty
AD-T
Colin Stewart

A company that has been able to acquire cash flow generating businesses. They use their currency to make a lot of acquisitions and pay a nice dividend out over time. That outlook is still intact. Has had a pause, but long-term the outlook is positive.


Price: $27.080
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Yes
2014-04-22 HOLD Altagas Ltd
ALA-T
Jon Vialoux

This tends to do well during the summer and he is not sure of the reason. Energy can do moderately well during the summer, but that is not its peak period of seasonal strength which runs from January through to May. There is a push from July through to October. This one has seemed to find that strength and shows an average gain of 8% during that time. This would be a hold through to the end of September.


Price: $46.670
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 PAST TOP PICK Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd.
ANS-T
Colin Stewart

(A Top Pick April 16/13. Down 4.31%.) Sold his holdings when there was a takeover offer.


Price: $3.800
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 SELL Aecon Group Inc
ARE-T
Colin Stewart

Doesn’t follow this closely, but it has performed well and if you own, he would be inclined to take profits. One of the challenges in the engineering/construction business is that it can be “boom and bust”. When oil/gas sector is doing well, they win a lot of contracts as well, but there are risks that when the going gets tough, they can be locked into contracts that could have costs overruns.


Price: $18.490
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 COMMENT Alimentation Couche-Tard (B)
ATD.B-T
Colin Stewart

Very good business. They have been a consolidator in the convenience store/fuel station business. His concern is that the share price is quite expensive at about 19X earnings.


Price: $89.030
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
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