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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Recent Opinions

Date Signal Company Expert Opinion Price
2014-04-22 COMMENT Bank of America
BAC-N
Colin Stewart

Preferred Citigroup (C-N) which was a little bit cheaper, trading at about 8.9X on a forward basis compared to this one at about 10X. Citigroup also has a more interesting upside on the dividend side when the Federal Reserve will give them the ability to increase their dividend. However, he likes the whole sector. As the economy and housing gets better, all the US banks should do well.


Price: $16.290
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 DON'T BUY Badger Daylighting
BAD-T
Jon Vialoux

This tends to do well from March through until May. Chart shows a nice upward trend in 2011 and has gone parabolic since late 2012. You tend to want to avoid cyclical stocks during the summer.


Price: $39.730
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 DON'T BUY Bombardier Inc (B)
BBD.B-T
Colin Stewart

There is a lot of optimism about the C series. This is a name he has stayed away from over the years. Has been disappointing constantly and has a lot of leverage on its balance sheet. This is not an easy business.


Price: $4.030
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 WAIT Biogen IDEC Inc.
BIIB-Q
Jon Vialoux

The period of seasonal strength comes predominately during the summertime, from August through until October. The average gain from July through to October is about 30% on an annual basis. The strongest month is July, so if you can take a position before July, it will give you added value. Currently this is trying to find a bottom. It is bouncing off of oversold levels. Doesn’t expect you would find the bottom at this point. Wait until the summer.


Price: $306.200
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 SELL Progressive Waste Solutions Inc
BIN-T
Jon Vialoux

Waste management companies can do very well in the springtime with contracts coming up for the summer. They tend to do very well from March through May. Expects this one would be no different, however the chart shows a huge double top and it doesn’t look like it is going to exceed that given the few weeks left in the seasonal period. Industrials do particularly poorly in the summertime.


Price: $27.190
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 TOP PICK Brookfield Residential Property
BRP-T
Colin Stewart

A play on US housing, a trend he likes which he expects will continue to improve over the next number of years. One of the leading land development companies and homebuilders. The difference between them and other homebuilders is that they have about half their business in Western Canada, which has been very strong with the other half in the US. Almost more of a land development business where they make their profits by developing and selling lots than they do from building homes. Rising home prices in the US would lead to strong appreciation in land prices. Have about a 20-25 year inventory of lots in land, where the traditional homebuilder has only a 4-6 year inventory.


Price: $22.830
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Yes
2014-04-22 TOP PICK Canfor Pulp Products
CFX-T
Colin Stewart

A large producer of softwood pulp in North America which goes into producing things like tissue paper, etc. Benefiting from current strong pulp prices and a weak Cdn$. Thinks it is going to generate a very significant amount of free cash flow over the next couple of years, in excess of $1 a share. Yield of 1.86% and there is a very strong possibility that this will be increased significantly over the next 12-18 months.


Price: $11.170
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Yes
2014-04-22 DON'T BUY CI Financial Corp
CIX-T
Jon Vialoux

Canadian financials in particular have a period of seasonal strength from January all the way through to their earnings. This one reports May 7. The big 6 report closer to the end of May so you still have a bit of time. Chart shows consolidation for the past few months so it hasn’t really played out according to seasonal tendencies. There are better alternatives out there. Revisit financials in August.


Price: $35.280
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 SELL Canadian National R.R.
CNR-T
Jon Vialoux

Transportation industry is doing incredibly well right now. This one had a huge push over the last few days and is starting to outperform the market. The period of seasonal strength for transportation stocks predominantly come to an end when industrial stocks come to an end, which is the beginning of May. A good trade during the summertime is to actually Short some of these things. July through to October is the weakest time for these transportation stocks. He would be looking to take profits here.


Price: $63.570
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 COMMENT Canadian Oil Sands
COS-T
Jon Vialoux

Has had a great move in its present period of seasonal strength and is up substantially since the year began. Substantially overbought at present levels. We are nearing the end of the seasonal strength and this follows the same seasonality. May 9 is the average exit date for the energy sector. Look to take profits on strength between now and May 9. Sit it out and then come back during the next period of seasonal strength of July through until October.


Price: $24.180
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 TOP PICK Corby Spirit and Wine (A)
CSW.A-T
Colin Stewart

Trading at a discount of 11X EBITDA versus 18X EBITDA of other companies. 3.5% dividend yield, so you get paid to wait. Undergoing a fairly major expansion in the US with their J P Wiser brand, one of the leading brands of rye whiskey in Canada. This is a really hot trend today in the spirits market. If successful with the expansion in the US, there could be a significant earnings upside. The wildcard is Pernod Ricard, the 4th or 5th largest liquor company in the world that owns 50% of this company. They might make a bid for the rest of Corbys. Yield of 3.44%.


Price: $21.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Yes
2014-04-22 BUY Caldwell Partners Int'l (A)
CWL-T
Colin Stewart

A business that generally is going to benefit from a recovery in the economy. Have done a great job of expanding outside of Canada into the executive search business in the US in the last few years. As the US economy improves, the business and the number of searches they do will improve. Has a very large cash balance of about $0.45-$0.50 as share. Pays a nice dividend of 6.8%.


Price: $1.030
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Yes
2014-04-22 PAST TOP PICK Dundee International REIT
DI.UN-T
Colin Stewart

(A Top Pick April 16/13. Down 2.25%.) Sold his holdings about 6 months ago when he had a concern about interest rates moving higher. Still feels it is a well-run REIT. Has a lot of properties in Europe which is more of a play on what is going on over there.


Price: $9.550
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 HOLD Walt Disney
DIS-N
Colin Stewart

A stock that has performed very, very well over the last 5 years. Recently had a bit of a setback but the market has also come back so wouldn’t read too much into this. A very high quality company. There is more and more value being put on content and this is one of the leaders in content. A good blue-chip stock to own.


Price: $79.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 HOLD Encana Corp
ECA-T
Colin Stewart

If you believe in natural gas, this is one of the really blue chip companies in Canada that participates. Recently spun off some of their more mature assets into a royalty type structure, which is part of the reason why the stock has been strong in addition to the weather we have had.


Price: $25.500
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 SELL ON STRENGTH Ford Motor
F-N
Jon Vialoux

Consumer discretionary stocks, particularly this one, tend to do well in the spring. There is a huge spike up from March through to May, but then we get into a period of seasonal weakness. Consumer discretionary stocks tend to do very poorly during the summer. Relative performance is still trending higher on this, so it looks like there are still investors coming into it. We are getting to the end of seasonal strength in a couple of weeks.


Price: $16.100
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 COMMENT Facebook
FB-Q
Colin Stewart

Doesn’t follow this closely. It’s a great business but the 1st number of quarters after their initial offering didn’t perform that well. Expectations today are probably a little bit higher because the last few quarters have seen better results. It is tough to go against a company that has built as much value as they have over the last 10 years.


Price: $63.030
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 COMMENT Guardian Capital Group
GCG-T
Colin Stewart

Has 2 main assets, the core asset management business which has been improving and making acquisitions in the business and has been getting better. Also, have a very large portfolio of corporate investments on their balance sheet, the largest of which by far is a stake in the Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) and every time this moves up, this company becomes more valuable. As their asset management business improves, they can hopefully grow and make acquisitions in their core business and maybe sell down some of their BMO stake. He thinks the outlook is positive. Thinly traded, so you could look at CI Financial (CIX-T) or Gluskin Sheff (GS-T) instead.


Price: $18.500
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Yes
2014-04-22 WAIT Gilead Sciences Inc.
GILD-Q
Jon Vialoux

Biotech has 2 periods of seasonal strength. One is predominately during the summer from August through until October, but there is also a very minor push during the months of April and May which we are seeing now. Had a huge selloff during its seasonal weakness of February to April and had become deeply oversold. We are now into a minor period of seasonal strength, but he would look into buying this in August.


Price: $72.860
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 HOLD Goldman Sachs
GS-N
Colin Stewart

Fits in the category of a very well run business. Trading at a reasonable valuation multiple. A pickup in merger and acquisition activity would benefit this company. He thinks this is going to happen.


Price: $160.460
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 BUY Home Depot
HD-N
Colin Stewart

Has been Buying in the last month or so. Pullback in the US market caused the share price for a lot of large caps like this, to pull back a little. Great company and trading at 18X this year’s earnings and 15X the 2nd year out. Growing its store base at a very high rate of investment capital, and more importantly, also has exposure and leverage to a very strong housing market. Great way to play the housing market.


Price: $79.670
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Yes
2014-04-22 TOP PICK HAP Floating Rate Bond ETF
HFR-T
Jon Vialoux

A good cash alternative way where you can hide out during the summer. This holds a basket of corporate bonds and has a floating rate attached to it, to hedge out the interest-rate risk. If bond rates and interest rates go higher, you will tend to benefit from this. A very conservative play.


Price: $10.220
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-22 PAST TOP PICK Imvescor Restaurant Group
IRG-T
Colin Stewart

(A Top Pick April 16/13. Up 38.36%.) Story has only gotten better. Earnings are going higher. Have a great retail business where they sell some of their products in grocery stores. That retail initiative is a very high margin business. Well-positioned and generating a lot of cash flow. At some point, they could initiate a dividend which would be received positively.


Price: $2.030
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Yes
2014-04-22 PAST TOP PICK iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM-N
Jon Vialoux

(A Top Pick Jan 3/14. Up 0.20%.) This is a great play at the start of the year. You get a big push in Jan-Feb. This year it capped out right according to queue, at the beginning of March. Period of seasonal strength is from mid-December through to the beginning of March and he made about 9% on this trade.


Price: $114.620
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-22 COMMENT iShares Dow Jones Real Estate E.T.F.
IYR-N
Jon Vialoux

This is just coming to an end of its 1st period of seasonal strength. It tends to do well in the springtime, March through to May. The next period of strength is from July through to October.


Price: $69.230
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 PAST TOP PICK iPath DJ AIG Copper TR Sub-Index
JJC-N
Jon Vialoux

(A Top Pick Jan 3/14. Down 9.51%.) Copper futures. This one did not work out.


Price: $37.020
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-22 TOP PICK Kellog
K-N
Jon Vialoux

This is your classic defensive play. A consumer staples company that has a low PE of about 13 as opposed to the market which is about 17. The period of seasonal strength for this can run between now, April through to July. Consumer Staples in general can do well all the way through to October. The average gain from April 27 to October 7 is 9.18%. On the technicals, the chart shows what he would call a bit of a Bull flag. This sharpness has come on during takeover talks, but he is not playing it on this basis, but on a seasonal basis.


Price: $66.280
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-22 COMMENT Logistec Corp
LGT.B-T
Colin Stewart

Involved basically in loading cargo at ports. Have a very good position in North America. If you believe the economy is going to get better and more and more trade is going to be happening from Canada and the US, this would be a big beneficiary of that. Sold his holdings 3 or 4 months ago because it had gone up a lot and he took profits. Tightly controlled by a small number of investors so is not very liquid.


Price: $53.500
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 COMMENT Magna Int'l. (A)
MG-T
Jon Vialoux

Auto-part makers will follow the same seasonal strength as the automobile manufacturers. From March through to May is the period of seasonal strength. We are getting to the end of seasonal strength in a couple of weeks.


Price: $111.590
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 COMMENT Mitel Networks
MITL-Q
Colin Stewart

A well-run company in a tough industry (telecom equipment) with a lot of pricing pressure. An interesting thing that happened recently is their large acquisition of Astra Technology. The combination of these 2 companies should generate a lot of synergies. This is where scale matters and cutting some costs and fat from the business will be good for shareholders and lead to significant free cash flow over the next number of years. Has been thinking about adding this to his portfolios, but share price has run up in the last few months and a slightly lower price would be interesting.


Price: $9.470
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 DON'T BUY Prometic Life Sciences Inc.
PLI-T
Jon Vialoux

Biotech tends to do well in the summertime from August through until October. There is another push at the end of the year from about October into February. Seasonality for this in particular is a bit different from the biotech sector. It actually enters a period of seasonal weakness during the summer. Seasonal strength is really from the end of December through to February. Wouldn’t be pursuing this, particularly seeing how stretched it has become.


Price: $1.190
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 WAIT Potash Corp of Saskatchewan
POT-T
Jon Vialoux

Fertilizer stocks tend to do well in the summer, from July through until October. We are currently already seeing strength in the stock. Last year was a horrible year and it didn’t play out according to trend. He would expect that this will get up to those highs that we saw last summer. Sit this one out now and entertain it more in July.


Price: $39.310
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 SELL Russel Metals
RUS-T
Jon Vialoux

The period of seasonal strength for materials stocks is from October through to May. We have seen a huge push this year as well. Seasonal weakness for these materials stocks tends to be in the summertime. He would be looking to take profits.


Price: $31.170
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 COMMENT Royal Bank
RY-T
Colin Stewart

A very high quality financial institution for a long-term investor. Very well run. Pays a nice dividend. If you are going to Buy and Hold it for a long time, you are not going to go too far wrong. Feels the US banks overall are cheaper on a valuation standpoint and have more earning potential than Canadian banks. Canadian banks are trading between 11 and 13 times earnings while US banks generally trade at 10X and have a better earnings growth profile because they are recovering from a lower base and a big improvement in housing.


Price: $72.460
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 TOP PICK Scholastic Corp.
SCHL-Q
Jon Vialoux

The bulk of their operating income comes in the quarter from September through to November, the start of the school season. The period of seasonal strength will obviously run from now, the end of April, all the way to September 30. The average gain for this company is 14.3%. There have only been 2 times where it has been negative in its 22 year history.


Price: $33.350
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-22 DON'T BUY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY-N
Jon Vialoux

Expecting a bit of weakness this summer and we are seeing stretched valuations. Nothing is cheap at the present so you want to avoid the broad markets. This one is trading at about a 17 multiple. Look for things with a lower multiple such as consumer staples or utilities which are hovering around 14.


Price: $187.890
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 HOLD Suncor Energy Inc
SU-T
Colin Stewart

The whole energy patch has done well so far this year. It’s been the hot sector in Canada this year. This stock languished for a long time and feels it is still trading at a reasonable valuation. Pays a dividend. A blue chip way of getting exposure to energy in Canada.


Price: $40.320
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 HOLD Teck Resources Ltd. (B)
TCK.B-T
Colin Stewart

If you own, holding on is not a bad play. A pretty beaten up stock and has been an under performer for a while. Metallurgical coal business has been very tough. Also, have assets in copper which has not been great lately. One strong part of their market has been zinc, whose prices have been picking up a little. When you see an earnings release that is below expectation and the stock doesn’t go down, it may be a sign that we are close to bottom.


Price: $24.580
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 BUY Tricon Capital Group
TCN-T
Colin Stewart

A Canadian company, but primarily exposed to US housing. Have a few different businesses. One is in land and housing development. Own a lot of land in California, Arizona and areas where there has been strong appreciation. Also into single-family rental business where they have accumulated a lot of individual homes and are renting them out. Thinks the outlook is very good. Excellent management team.


Price: $7.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Yes
2014-04-22 SELL Tesla Motors Inc
TSLA-Q
Colin Stewart

Would put this in the category of almost like a concept. Generally speaking, the electric car market is going to become more competitive. This one is clearly the early mover and the leader, but there is a lot of optimism baked into the valuation. Company has a $26 billion market cap and expected to sell 35,000 cars next year which comes out to about a $750,000 valuation per car.


Price: $218.640
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 HOLD Visa Inc.
V-N
Colin Stewart

Wouldn’t want to bet against this company. Has a very premium valuation trading at about 23 or 24 times earnings, so you are paying a steep price to Buy. However, you can’t argue with the success they have had. Payment processors are benefiting from 2 big long-term trends, a move towards a cashless society and the proliferation of e-commerce.


Price: $209.970
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: No
2014-04-22 COMMENT Westjet Airlines
WJA-T
Colin Stewart

Over the long-term, the airline industry has been a very bad sector for investors. This industry, particularly in the US, is going through a great deal of structural change with an immense amount of consolidation and cost-cutting going towards more efficient planes. Less price competition and more rational behaviour. There is some concern about competition and if the good times can keep happening. Prefers Air Canada, but has a positive outlook for both.


Price: $24.590
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias: BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-22 PAST TOP PICK SPDR Energy ETF
XLE-N
Jon Vialoux

(A Top Pick Jan 3/14. Up 7.82%.) Energy tends to do well from early January all the way through to May. Oil prices, gasoline and gas prices tend to go up at that time. The period of seasonal strength is coming to an end now.


Price: $93.270
Subject: SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-21 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Fabrice Taylor

Markets.  Stocks have had a really good run, mostly on multiple expansion, so he believes 2014 will be a little more volatile, although making gains.  Smaller companies can grow more easily.  Even a few companies can make you some good money.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-21 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Markets.  There are all kinds of ETFs all over the world based on the RAFFI index for fundamentals.  People aren’t paying enough attention to the demographics in the world.  They favour emerging markets for growth in the world over the next number of years.  However, the demographics in China have the same problems as we do with an aging workforce.  He prefers Indonesia, Malaysia, and India – the second tier of emerging markets where we will see tremendous growth.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: BULLISH on EMERGING MARKETS
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-21 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  He has a very curious appetite and always wants to know why.  He has always felt that asset allocation and diversification must be the cornerstones of your portfolio.  ETFs make it very easy and eloquent to put together portfolios.  The bond market has underperformed the stock market by about 35% since 2009.  But when the TSX fell between 2011 and 2012, the ratio actually went up about 20%.  The bond market is at the same place it was the last time the TSX had a bottom in 2011.  So maybe it is time to rebalance once again.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: BULLISH on EMERGING MARKETS
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-21 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Oil Stocks? Caller sold all his.  The long term outlook is moderate at best.  You should not sell everything, but raise some cash if you are at the upper end of the range.  The sector is not overvalued because it was undervalued for years.  He does not like the sector right now.  To exit, you should sell a little at a time and see if it keeps going higher instead.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: BULLISH on EMERGING MARKETS
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-21 WATCH A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Latin America.  Thinks we have some challenges in Latin America for the next few years.  There will probably be a time in the future to step in in a big way.  Maybe in the next year or two.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: BULLISH on EMERGING MARKETS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-21 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Sell in May and Go Away.  It is effective 60-65% of the time, however, we don’t know ahead of time if this is a year when it will work and we couldn’t possibly.  If we look at fundamentals and how long since a 10% percent correction, he thinks it might be coming now.  Also, if you look at year 2 of a presidential cycle, it would seem this could be a weak summer.  Maybe now ‘Sell in May…’ is 80% likely to apply.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: BULLISH on EMERGING MARKETS
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-21 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
James Hodgins

Markets. The last few times in the show, he has been neutral, kind of a push and pull, between the big deleveraging credit bubble. Over the last 5 years, when you get acceleration in the feds balance sheet, you get an increase in risk asset values. When that balance sheet starts to decelerate its growth, then you get a decline in asset value. Thinks this correlation is likely to hold true. While valuations in the markets seem reasonable on a short-term basis, when you factor in the earnings numbers base, i.e., near record profit margins the market looks quite expensive. There could be a pretty good drop once the QE ends.


Price: $0.020
Subject: MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING: SMALL/MID-CAP
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-04-21 PAST TOP PICK Aastra Technologies
AAH-T (Dead)
James Hodgins

(A Top Pick May 27/13. Up 156.02%.) Acquired by Mitel (MNW-T) in February. Prior to this acquisition, there was a special dividend paid.


Price: $41.940
Subject: MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING: SMALL/MID-CAP
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-21 HOLD AutoCanada Inc.
ACQ-T
James Hodgins

Not a big fan of this. Had a huge, huge run. Definitely a candidate to be added to the TSX 60 index and he thinks there is something like 800,000 shares of potential demand from indexers. On the index event, that might be a decent time. He will probably be taking a look at Shorting.


Price: $63.110
Subject: MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING: SMALL/MID-CAP
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-04-21 BUY American International Group
AIG-N
Fabrice Taylor

Thinks it will go higher.  Over time, if you are patient, it is an interesting stock.  All insurers will do well.


Price: $50.810
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-21 BUY Alvopetro Energy
ALV-X
James Hodgins

This was a spin out from a deal that Petrorubiales did about 6 months ago. Often these spin outs get dumped because people want to own the larger company. This is trading below cash and some nice prospects. Likelihood of success by the drill bit is pretty high.


Price: $0.990
Subject: MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING: SMALL/MID-CAP
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-21 DON'T BUY Argonaut Gold
AR-T
Fabrice Taylor

Gold is an industry he does not like.  You are always battling two huge forces you can’t predict. 


Price: $3.700
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: No
2014-04-21 COMMENT Amaya Gaming Group Inc.
AYA-T
James Hodgins

Management has done a nice job of putting the company together and is betting on the gambling online market, which is coming back in the US. Has moved more into the land based casino equipment business, which took a big hit in the 1st quarter, largely due to the weather. Thinks their strategy is to continue to make acquisitions where they have done a good job of integrating them and making them profitable.


Price: $7.010
Subject: MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING: SMALL/MID-CAP
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-21 BUY Bank of America
BAC-N
Fabrice Taylor

Probably has more legs.  Lots of financial industry leverage on their balance sheet.  US financials are not a bad place to be.  Small regional banks give you more bang for your buck if they are recovering.


Price: $16.090
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-21 TOP PICK Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.
BXE-T
James Hodgins

Growth on this is baked in the cake. Already have something like 35,000 BOE equivalents behind pipe so they are building some pipeline extensions. Once that is done, he thinks this quarter you are going to see production go from 25,000 to probably 40,000 BOEs a day and thinks the stock will keep pace with the growth.


Price: $10.230
Subject: MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING: SMALL/MID-CAP
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-04-21 BUY iShares 1-5 yr Ladder Corp Bond ETF
CBO-T
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Based on Bank of Canada statements, we are probably not going to see an interest rate hike in the next 12 months, but it is also about how the US handles the next year.  Once the Fed really pulls back on QE, the economy will falter and interest rates won’t go up there either.  This one is a fine holding.  Don’t worry about the underlying volume, as long as it trades with a penny or two spread.


Price: $19.780
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: BULLISH on EMERGING MARKETS
Owned: Unknown
2014-04-21 WATCH Carfinco Financial Group
CFN-T
James Hodgins

On the last conference call mention that they were seeing some increased competition. They lend to a subprime market in terms of auto lending. Have always executed very well. He would wait and see what the next quarter looks like before stepping back in. They do a good job of executing in their market space. It is back on his radar screen.


Price: $9.200
Subject: MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING: SMALL/MID-CAP
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
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