stockchase picture

Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Recent Opinions

Print
Date Signal Company Expert Opinion Price
2016-02-12 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Jason Mann

Markets. Looking at Price to Book Values on the TSX, it looks like a market bottom. There are lots of value signs, but stocks can stay cheap for a long time. Valuation is not a great catalyst for things to change. A 3rd of our market now trades below Price to Book. That has only happened 3 other times, 1982, 2000 and 2008. All 3 near cyclical lows for value stocks, 2000 being the exception where the market continued lower, but it was the high growth Internet stocks that rolled over, and more traditional cyclical value stocks did very well for the next couple of years. We are also 21 months into the bear market in Canada, which is well beyond the average of 11 months. From a US investor perspective, which does matter, Canada is down 45% from its highs. That should ultimately attract them. A US buyer not only gets the currency play, but also access to stocks that are well below Book Value in many cases. $7 trillion of government bonds globally are now trading at a negative yield, so the world is now pricing in this deflation scenario, this risk of global negative interest rates. It took a Fed rate hike to get treasuries to rally and yields to fall off. There is irony that the Fed is trying to raise rates, and the only thing that has happened is that rates have gone down. This is because Japan, Europe and other countries are using negative interest rates as a policy tool, which is what is crushing their banks. Overall the market is discounting this scenario of a US recession, which probably isn’t in the cards. He sees weakness currently in manufacturing in the US. Not particularly surprising given that energy is a large part of CapX. Energy is dragging down that part of the market, but we are seeing strong employment growth and wage pressure increase, which ultimately translates lower profit margins for companies, but more discretionary spending by consumers, and we are seeing a really strong service sector. The overall economy, when you combine it, is still strong. Doesn’t think we are on the precipice of a new recession, and thinks stocks are starting to discount that.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2016-02-12 COMMENT A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Jason Mann

Energy. In general, stocks are cheap and a lot of them are trading below BV. For a 10 year hold, from a sector perspective you want to be rotating into them. However, on a case-by-case basis, some may not make it. A lot have far too much debt and will have to do some restructuring, whether it is issuing equity which will dilute you, reducing or eliminating the dividend, or the worst-case scenario, the bondholders becoming the new equity holders. You are probably better off getting into something like iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF (XEG-T), and at least you’re balancing your exposure between the good and the bad. Or look for the strongest balance sheets that can at least generate cash flow somewhere in the 30s or 40s. Be very selective.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 COMMENT A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Don Vialoux

Gold. This rally looks very sustainable. Gold and precious metals in general do very well right through until the prospectors’ convention Mar. 6th to 9th this year. That is a typical period of seasonal strength and it looks like we will have continuing follow-through. Just be aware that you will have only 5-6 weeks to go.


Price: $0.020
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Don Vialoux

Markets. They’ve been brutal since the beginning of January. Earnings on the S&P 500 companies have been down 4% on a year-to-year basis. That’s the bad news. The good news is that we have just completed a volatility spike. Historically, when you get a spike in VIX-N, once it is over it sets the stage for markets to move significantly higher. The TSX Composite since Jan 21 is already up 7%, so we are already starting to move to the upside. Seasonality is positive right through until the beginning of May for both Canada and the US. In the last 2 weeks, markets have been choppy, but have been forming a nice little base. Today we had a very, very strong bounce from some very critical levels technically. So the stage is set for US and Canadian equity markets to significantly go higher until May.


Price: $0.020
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2016-02-12 COMMENT A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Don Vialoux

Canadian $. This has a period of seasonal strength from the beginning of March through until the end of April. This coincides with the strength in oil and an improving industrial production. The bad news is that technically we are in a long downward trend. There are some early signs of bottoming which is fairly encouraging. You want to see more confirmation that it has actually reached its low.


Price: $0.020
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 COMMENT A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Don Vialoux

Energy. The energy sector is set up for a major move during the next few months. The period of seasonal strength is from the 3rd week in January right through until May of each year. We are already seeing technical signs that the Canadian energy sector is in gear already. Forming a nice little base pattern and about to take another move on the upside.


Price: $0.020
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 HOLD Bird Construction Income Fund
BDT-T
Jason Mann

Has held in remarkably well given the manufacturing slowdown in Canada. One of his largest holdings in one of his funds. One of the 2 cheapest stocks in the universe that he covers. A really strong ROE at 23%. Trading at 4.5X Price to Free Cash Flow, so is really cheap. Dividend yield of 6.5%. Pristine balance sheet.


Price: $11.760
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 BUY Bank of Nova Scotia
BNS-T
Jason Mann

A good Buy at these levels. This has been hurt with the resource selloff, as they have a fair amount of Latin America exposure. All the banks are discounting or have already discounted the oil price decline in Canada. There has been US Shorting on our bank names because of assumed real estate exposure. However, he thinks valuation is attractive on pretty much all the banks. Yield of about 5%.


Price: $54.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 BUY Brookfield Property Partners
BPY.UN-T
Jason Mann

A well-run company with a good yield of 5.7%. Scores in the top 20% for price momentum. Despite its recent pullback, it is still relatively stable. A relatively low volatility stock. They’ve also been acquiring other Brookfield assets, and will probably continue to do so, giving them some built-in growth. Valuation is the problem. Trading at 30X EBITDA, and carries a fair bit of debt. However, a solid operator. Would have no problem owning this for its stability and yield.


Price: $26.070
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2016-02-12 WAIT CitiGroup
C-N
Don Vialoux

Historically US banks start to show positive performance around this time of year, and move higher right through until approximately the beginning of May. Seasonality is clicking in, but technically the stock is in a downward trend and has yet to show signs of even trying to form a bottom. Has been underperforming the market and is trading below its 20 day moving average. Short-term momentum indicators are negative. Not a good one to buy. Wait until there are signs of it bottoming.


Price: $37.540
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 DON'T BUY Cameco Corporation
CCO-T
Don Vialoux

The period of seasonal strength is normally from October right through until the end of February. It is clearly not happening this year. Technicals are not good. Stock has been in a long downward trend. Broke through its 20 day moving average.


Price: $15.850
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 PAST TOP PICK Chorus Aviation Inc
CHR.B-T
Jason Mann

(A Top Pick Sept 8/15. Down 4.49%.) More or less flat, but pays a nice dividend yield of just over 9%. A feeder for Air Canada (AC-T). This remains a cheap stock. Solid ROE’s at 20%. 5X EBITDA.


Price: $5.170
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 TOP PICK Canadian National R.R.
CNR-T
Jason Mann

(Canada is cheap from a cyclical basis, so his 3 Top Picks are ones that fit that theme and are cheap with good price momentum.) Transports led the market down, however at this point they are starting to lead. He is seeing a divergence between transports and the broad market. This is best in class. Great set of assets. Valuation has always been strong. Scores in the top 20% for low volatility. This is one to hold for the long-term, and will benefit from a cyclical recovery. Dividend yield of 1.96%.


Price: $76.540
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 COMMENT Crescent Point Energy Corp
CPG-T
Jason Mann

Definitely a “go to” name for the Canadian retail space, but would not be his 1st pick for energy. You can get companies cheaper that have better price momentum. Pays a good yield, but that alone is not a good reason to own energy stocks. Reasonably valued, kind of the middle of the pack, but high volatility, negative ROE’s and they don’t make money yet at these oil prices. Would prefer something like Raging River (RRX-T) or Granite Oil (GXO-T). Has a small Short on this. (See Top Picks.)


Price: $14.430
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 PAST TOP PICK PowerShare's DB Commodity E.T.F.
DBC-N
Don Vialoux

(A Top Pick Nov 30/15. Down 11.91%.) An example of the right idea but the wrong investment product. The idea was that the US$ was peaking at 100, and was going to start going lower, which was going to help commodity prices in general. It turns out this particular product is heavily weighted in energy.


Price: $12.500
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2016-02-12 WATCH Denison Mines Corp
DML-T
Don Vialoux

Not sure of the seasonality, but technicals are very interesting. Has been forming a nice little base pattern, unlike Cameco (CCO-T). Has been outperforming the TSX in the last few weeks, has positive momentum and has been forming a trading range. If it breaks above the resistance level, then you are going to see the stock take a move, probably back up close to the $1 level. Watch for encouragement from the company, particularly on the exploration front.


Price: $0.610
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 BUY Dollarama Inc.
DOL-T
Jason Mann

One of his largest holdings in 2 of his funds. This has always been a stock with good valuation, and they continually beat on earnings. Pristine balance sheet. Fantastic ROE at 55%. Quite a defensive, stable stock.


Price: $71.600
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 PAST TOP PICK FT AlphaDEX Cdn. Dividend ETF
FDY-T
Don Vialoux

(A Top Pick Nov 30/15. Down 9.98%.) This was chosen because it was a smart ETF that was supposed to outperform the US equity market. It outperformed the S&P 500, but everything went down, which meant you lost less then if you had actually held the market.


Price: $16.160
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2016-02-12 TOP PICK First Trust AlphaDEX U.S. Industrials Sector Index ETF
FHG-T
Don Vialoux

The seasonality is positive right around the 3rd week of January through until May of each year. On a technical basis, the US industrial sector has already bottomed and is starting to outperform the market. If you think about it, a good part of the industrials consists of transportation companies, and transportation companies are going to benefit significantly from lower fuel costs which will boost their earnings going forward. That whole sector is really starting to come on stream.


Price: $19.660
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2016-02-12 HOLD Alphabet Inc. (A)
GOOGL-Q
Don Vialoux

The company has not been around long enough to give a seasonality assessment. However, the technicals look reasonably good. The chart shows that it is in an upward trend and is outperforming the market. In the last couple of weeks it has had a bit of a difficult time, but the scenario is quite positive on a technical basis. Watch the technicals very, very closely. If they show signs of rolling over, that will be an opportunity to take some profits.


Price: $706.890
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 SELL Hudson Bay Co.
HBC-T
Jason Mann

Still a Sell for him. Has a Short on it in all 3 of his funds. It has never been there from a valuation perspective. The retail operation continues to struggle. Occasionally gets a pop because of their real estate asset that is supposed to be spinning into a REIT, but never seems to materialize. Too much debt. 11X EBITDA. Trading at 30X earnings. Very low ROE at about 5%.


Price: $14.980
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 COMMENT Interfor Corp
IFP-T
Don Vialoux

Normally forest product stocks do very well from the middle of October right through until April of each year. Recently came back to its low of October. Technically it has come back to support which is a good sign. A bounce from these levels implies that you are going to get a test of the previous high, and if you got a breakout above that level, that would be very, very bullish. There is still some time for the seasonal trade. Probably a good Hold at these levels if not a good Buy for a trade into April.


Price: $10.170
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 DON'T BUY Inter Pipeline
IPL-T
Jason Mann

Had been Short this. An expensive company and has got pretty lousy price momentum, and given its status as a pseudo-utility, it is pretty poor. High yield of about 7.5%, but has a high payout ratio, which should be questioned. Could be at risk of having a dividend cut. Reasonably low ROE and trading at 26X Free Cash Flow. Not something he would want to hold here.


Price: $20.750
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2016-02-12 PAST TOP PICK iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM-N
Don Vialoux

(A Top Pick Nov 30/15. Down 18.55%.) This was a disaster. What normally happens from the beginning of December through to the 1st week of March, is that the small caps outperform the big caps. It didn’t happen this year.


Price: $96.590
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2016-02-12 COMMENT iShares Dow Jones Transport ETF
IYT-N
Don Vialoux

This includes all the US railroads as well as the airlines. This has just entered into a period of seasonal strength which continues right through until May of each year. Of greater importance, the transportation sector has started to show signs of outperformance in the last couple of weeks. Has started to outperform the market which is really important at this time of the year. It could get back to the $151 level during this period of seasonal strength.


Price: $126.380
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 COMMENT Kinross Gold
K-T
Don Vialoux

This has had a huge move in the last little while. Had a break above a base building pattern. Technically you have to like this stock. On a seasonal basis, this does very well right through until around the end of February, or approximately when the annual prospectors’ convention is held in Toronto, March 6-March 9. During their convention, that is a great time to take some very good profits.


Price: $4.170
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 HOLD Manitoba Telecom Services
MBT-T
Don Vialoux

Because he considers this to be a utility stock, utility stocks normally do very well in the summertime. Technically it looks very good. Recently broke to a new high. It’s in an upward trend and is outperforming the Canadian market and is above its 20 day moving average. RSIs are positive. A very attractive situation.


Price: $32.050
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 WATCH Magna Int'l. (A)
MG-T
Don Vialoux

Seasonality for this and the auto industry in general is from around the end of February right through until May of each year. The key is to watch for the possibility of the seasonality characteristics coming into the stock sometime around the end of this month. Technically, it is not so good right now. It’s in a downward trend and is underperforming the market. Short-term momentum indicators are still on the downside. Around the end of this month, if the technicals start to show signs of bottoming, that will be the opportunity to Buy.


Price: $45.830
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 COMMENT Metro Inc (A)
MRU-T
Jason Mann

This scores in the top 10% for him. Valuation is great and is in the top 15%. A low volatility stock. ROE is 20%. It is defensive in nature. Pays a small dividend.


Price: $40.500
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 BUY National Bank of Canada
NA-T
Jason Mann

Just did an equity raise, because of their Maple bank that got shut down in Germany recently, where they took a loss. Thinks the market got a little too fussed about that, as it is not too material for this bank. Just over 7X PE. 5.8% dividend yield. A good stable company that is not going anywhere.


Price: $36.790
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 DON'T BUY NYX Gaming Group Ltd
NYX-X
Jason Mann

Gaming stocks had their run about a year ago, and since then they have all come off. He would not recommend this, strictly on a valuation basis. Price momentum is okay, but is volatile. Value is not there. A lot of these gaming companies don’t really have a lot of cash flow today. You are banking on cash flow materializing in the future, which makes it really hard.


Price: $2.500
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2016-02-12 TOP PICK Open Text
OTC-T
Jason Mann

(Canada is cheap from a cyclical basis, so his 3 Top Picks are ones that fit that theme and are cheap with good price momentum.) Canada’s largest software company and a leader in management software. A growth through acquisition story. Scores in the top 10% on price momentum. Had a big drop a couple of quarters ago when they warned on earnings, and then went ahead and beat on earnings. They do a very good job of managing growth and earnings expectations. 14% ROE and 20X PE. Dividend yield of 1.68%.


Price: $66.410
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 COMMENT Pan American Silver
PAA-T
Don Vialoux

Silver stocks do very well, normally from around the middle of December right through until the end of February. As you get to the end of February, it’s going to be an opportunity to take some really good seasonal profits. 


Price: $12.270
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 BUY Park Lawn Income Trust
PLC-X
Jason Mann

Cemeteries. Price momentum on this is decent. A little too small for him. Good balance sheet and pays a 4% dividend yield. ROE’s are decent at 14%, and it is a nice, stable stock. He would feel comfortable holding this.


Price: $11.500
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2016-02-12 TOP PICK ETFS Physical Platinum Shares
PPLT-N
Don Vialoux

The platinum was a bit of a surprise this year. Seasonal strength is from the middle of December right through until around the end of April. This year we didn’t get the actual move until around the end of January. The reason for the strength is the way platinum is used. It is used in the auto industry for catalytic converters. More autos are being sold this year than last year. We are expecting to have a record crowd at the auto sales tradeshows this week. A very interesting trade technically, fundamentally and seasonally.


Price: $92.150
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2016-02-12 TOP PICK Parex Resources Inc.
PXT-T
Jason Mann

(Canada is cheap from a cyclical basis, so his 3 Top Picks are ones that fit that theme and are cheap with good price momentum.) An oil stock that you can hold and that will survive. Best in class in terms of adding resources. Growing their reserves even in this environment. Trading at 3.3X cash flow and 1.3X BV, and most importantly have no debt. Have cash on their balance sheet and a $200 million line of credit, so have room to grow if oil prices move higher. At around $40 Brent they can actually grow. Trade on a flowing barrel of around 37,000, versus its peers at around 60,000.


Price: $9.010
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 PAST TOP PICK Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc.
RBA-T
Jason Mann

(A Top Pick Sept 8/15. Down 9.87%.) Hasn’t worked out as well, but is still one of his largest holdings in 2 of his funds. Ironically, as markets get harder, auctioneers’ volumes of resales actually pick up. Great balance sheet with no net debt. Score in the top 10% for him on valuation.


Price: $31.400
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 BUY Transalta Renewables
RNW-T
Jason Mann

This has been a beneficiary of the parent Transalta (TA-T) pushing assets down, so they have a built-in growth model. TransAlta probably needs to push more assets into this. Valuation and price momentum are okay, kind of the middle of the pack, but you wouldn’t expect super cheap valuation for a utility. Quite stable and low volatility. Relatively safe and pays a good yield.


Price: $10.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 PAST TOP PICK Raging River Exploration
RRX-T
Jason Mann

(A Top Pick Sept 8/15. Up 9.72%.) Light oil. Pristine balance sheet. Also, has some of the best netbacks in the business. At $30-$35 oil, they can actually increase production. Still a buy. (See Top Picks.)


Price: $8.740
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2016-02-12 HOLD Saputo Inc.
SAP-T
Don Vialoux

Because it tends to be a consumer staples stock it tends to do well in the summer. The stock is currently doing something that it normally does not do. It is actually very strong in the winter time, which is encouraging. Technically it is testing the high that it made in 2015. It is getting lined up for a possible move in the summer again.


Price: $36.990
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 DON'T BUY SunEdison Inc
SUNE-N
Jason Mann

What he would call a battleground stock. A hedge fund hotel that has really hurt a lot of people. Purely speculative at this point. Has just about as bad a price momentum as you can get. Doesn’t cash flow at all and has a ton of debt. There is bankruptcy risk here.


Price: $1.410
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2016-02-12 BUY Toronto Dominion
TD-T
Jason Mann

A good Buy at these levels. All the banks are discounting or have already discounted the oil price decline in Canada. There has been US Shorting on our bank names because of assumed real estate exposure. However, he thinks valuation is attractive on pretty much all of the banks.


Price: $50.810
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 COMMENT Tesla Motors Inc
TSLA-Q
Jason Mann

You need a high risk tolerance for this stock. Holding one like this for a long period of time is pretty risky, and the stock is extremely expensive. Price momentum has started to fall off and is down about 45% from its recent highs. There are no valuation metrics on this, because they have no cash flows. Purely speculative.


Price: $151.040
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 COMMENT Twitter, Inc
TWTR-N
Don Vialoux

There has been no establishment of a support level yet. Technically it is clearly in a downward trend and trading less then its 20 day moving average as well is underperforming the market. There is no indication that this has stopped going down. There are no signs of support.


Price: $15.880
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 COMMENT Visa Inc.
V-N
Don Vialoux

Typical of most of the US financial service stocks, they tend to do very well from around February right through until May of each year. Technically the chart shows this is in a longer-term upward trend. If it breaks above the 2015 high, which was an all-time high, that would be very, very bullish. The scenario is positive for another good move to the upside.


Price: $70.420
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 DON'T BUY Veresen Inc
VSN-T
Jason Mann

Was short this a couple of years ago based on its high valuation, but has recently covered it. This has poor price momentum. Price momentum matters because it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Valuation is still not supportive even at this low price. Trading at 10X cash flow and 46X EBITDA and 28X PE. Despite how much it’s dropped, it has too much debt, and he would question if the 14% yield is sustainable.


Price: $6.730
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2016-02-12 COMMENT Western Forest Products Inc.
WEF-T
Don Vialoux

The forest products sector has very, very strong seasonality. The strength is from the middle of October through until the beginning of April. The longer-term trend is still on the upside. He is looking for it to continue to move higher. If you break the level from last fall, that is the key because you could have a spurt up to around $1.92.


Price: $1.920
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 COMMENT Wells Fargo
WFC-N
Don Vialoux

Historically US banks bottom right around this time of year. What you want now are the technicals to support that. There are some early signs that this might want to be bottom at around current levels. Has been slightly outperforming the market, which has been going down. Probably slightly higher than its 20 day moving average, and momentum indicators are probably starting to show early signs of bottoming. Probably a good time to be considering this as an interesting seasonal play right through until approximately May.


Price: $47.310
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 HOLD Sirius XM Canada Holdings Inc
XSR-T
Jason Mann

Have been approached on a preliminary basis about a transaction to take them private, but thinks the problem is that the price range is lower than what people were expecting. It scores well on valuations, so the buyer at this price is potentially getting a good deal. Trading around 7X Price to Free Cash Flow. There might not be a lot more upside from here.


Price: $4.260
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 WAIT BMO Equal Weight Bank ETF
ZEB-T
Don Vialoux

Bank stocks in Canada have very distinctive seasonality. They are different than seasonality for US banks. Seasonality runs from September through until the end of November when they report their 4th quarter results. Then they don’t do much until around the end of February, when they again go into a period of seasonal strength. That usually lasts until about May. Chart shows signs of bottoming, but we are not at the end of February yet. When you see them bottoming, that will be a sign to play the next seasonal trade.


Price: $19.930
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-12 TOP PICK BMO S&P/TSX Base Metals ETF
ZMT-T
Don Vialoux

The period of seasonal strength on base metals is from the 3rd week of January right through until around the middle of April. On a technical basis, the sector has finally started showing signs of bottoming during the last 3 weeks. It recently broke above a short-term trading range, and is outperforming the market. Buy on weakness. He would put this trade on through to May.


Price: $4.810
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2016-02-11 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Kash Pashootan

Markets.  Gold.  It is not a great sign when you see people moving into a safe haven.  It is the first time we have seen it since 2008. Investors have exhausted all places to put money:  Bonds are volatile, equities are volatile and you don’t earn much in cash.  Be selective in oil.  He has been negative in oil for 4 years.  Even now, he sees we are close to the bottom in oil prices, but you don’t want to falsely translate oil price stability into share price stability in oil stocks.  He is not a buyer in the oil space.  2016 is another year of pain, with even more.  A hand full of oil companies have hedges coming off.  They have been burning cash hoping oil prices will come back. 


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2016-02-11 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Kash Pashootan

Weighting – banks and financials.  If you assign a 10% weighting, then the subsectors should be included in that.  If you add to subsectors then you add to the space.  You might differ between Canadian and US, but otherwise both banks and insurance companies are financials.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2016-02-11 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Kash Pashootan

Negative interest rates in Canada.  We are quite a ways from banks charging to take your money.  Negative interest rates are more of a term.  He believes Canada is going into a recession.  He expects interest rates to go to zero.  You will not be earning a net positive rate after inflation.  This will continue as Canada’s economy struggles.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2016-02-11 BUY A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Kash Pashootan

Do I go back into the market from cash?  There is always a risk going to cash, but when you get it right it feels good.  Try to build a portfolio you can live with in tough times.  Remind yourself that going to cash is a strategy that is not sustainable according to history.  Buy now if you are all in cash. He is at 25% right now.  Make sure they are dividend paying names.   Don’t make any big bets on sectors or individual names.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2016-02-11 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Paul Harris, CFA

Markets. It is very difficult to figure out exactly when all this stuff stops. There are a lot of things happening that are driving the stock market including a disbelief that the US is probably going to put off rate increases for quite a while. China is slowing down with a lot of talk about further devaluation of their currency. Inflationary expectations have been going down in the last little while, not only in the US, but in Europe as well. There is a real worry in the world that monetary policy cannot do the things it was supposed to do. Thinks the argument is valid that monetary policy has to be mixed with fiscal policy. We are looking for this to be happening in Canada in the next little while, and we need to see it in other parts of the world as well, such as US, Europe, UK, etc.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2016-02-11 WATCH Amazon.com
AMZN-Q
Paul Harris, CFA

You have to believe in the greater concept that Amazon is trying to achieve. They can make money if they want to, but is probably positioned not to give you a lot of earnings or dividends for a long time. A lot of the money goes back into developing and growing the business. The Cloud business is doing incredibly well and the retail business continues to grow taking market share away from the big box players. The company has changed the way people think about retail and will continue to do so. Expects they will continue to grab market share away from a lot of stores. When you see big Down moves in the stock, that is the time to try and buy it.


Price: $490.480
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2016-02-11 TOP PICK Bank of America
BAC-N
Paul Harris, CFA

(A Top Pick Jan 29/15. Down 26.79%.) A cheap stock, and they own 10% of the deposits in the US. Great retail franchise. In the top 3 globally in investment banking. Also, have a great credit card business and wealth management business. Trading below tangible BV. Dividend yield of 1.79%.


Price: $11.980
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2016-02-11 COMMENT Brookfield Asset Management (A)
BAM.A-T
Paul Harris, CFA

Likes that the vast majority of management gets paid in shares. From an NAV point of view, he sees it as around $45, or even a little higher. Very good at buying assets at the right time and selling assets when they think they are mature.


Price: $38.720
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2016-02-11 TOP PICK BCE Inc.
BCE-T
Kash Pashootan

You want names with a low beta, which is .4 in this case.  He likes the fiber expansion.  It will boost earnings.  He likes the HBO acquisition.  They will stream current seasons over mobile devices.


Price: $57.670
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
Showing 1 to 60 of 148,842 entries
<< < 1 2 3 4 5 > >>