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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Recent Opinions

Date Signal Company Expert Opinion Price
2014-10-24 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
James Telfser

Markets. Built up a fair amount of cash leading to the correction and has now put some of this to work. Had taken some of his cues from the market on the US treasury side. Also, just following the technicals in the market, he saw a couple of big rallies into the close in the US, and it looked like the market wanted to go a little bit. Also, there was a positive in the number of people being fired in the US. It was more of a tactical decision where he thought the market had overshot on the down side. Has been trimming some of those positions in the last couple of days. Doesn't think we are going to get back to new highs. We have come a long way off from the bottom, so it is prudent to take some money off the table, especially the way the oil price has been struggling.


Price: $0.020
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-10-24 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Jason Donville

Markets. Since the 2nd world war, most of the economies and stock markets have followed a very similar pattern. We come out of a slow period, the economy picks up, we start getting inflationary pressures, the Central Bank starts raising interest rates to dampen it and everything slows down. That is the cycle. However, in the last 5-6 years, we really haven't seen really high levels of growth coming out of the last trough of 2008-2009. The likelihood of a Central Bank going to raise interest rates to slow down growth, is very, very low. Doesn't think we are going to get a big correction in the stock market. The price of oil and the price of copper tell you there is not a lot of growth out there. Thinks we are going to be in a muddle along economy. In this correction we are going through, we are pretty much there. Feels we are going to be in a stable and soon to be rising market. Lower oil prices is like a huge tax windfall and very positive for the economy. Feels the next 3-6 months for the stock market are going to be good. We tend to get our corrections in September and October, and then we get pretty good markets from the end of October through until probably May.


Price: $0.020
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-10-24 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Jason Donville

Energy. We have been in this channel of somewhere between $80 and $110 range in the last 5 to 7 years. With fracing technology will we actually start setting a new lower level to that range? Most of the feedback he has heard from oil/gas analysts is that the costs of getting oil out of the ground has not changed that much. As a consequence, we are probably going to steady somewhere around $80 as a lower limit. If we shoot through $80 and into the $70's for a few months, supply is going to pulled back quite quickly. Thinks oil does become quite interesting here in the low $80's. Don't be a seller of oil stocks. Look to pick up bargains as we bounce along that $80 mark. Expect that in 18 months we will be back over $95.


Price: $0.020
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-10-24 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Jason Donville

Lifecos or Canadian Banks? He still likes the banks better. They seem to have a lot more latitude in terms of growth. Likes their quality of management, although Manulife (MFC-T) would be on a par. If he had to choose one bank, it would be Toronto Dominion (TD-T), but all the Canadian banks are good right now.


Price: $0.020
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-10-24 HOLD Air Canada (B)
AC.B-T
James Telfser

Generally likes the airlines. Cdn$ has been causing a bit of headwind, and is not quite being offset by fuel prices. If you step back from all the short-term moves, such as jet fuel and currency, they have been doing some great things. They are really revamping their business. For the last 3 months their numbers have been out of the park. Expects this quarter is going to be a good one.


Price: $8.590
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 COMMENT AutoCanada Inc.
ACQ-T
James Telfser

Valuation is better than it was at $90. The story is that they need to make acquisitions to grow into the multiple that they are at. He would argue that a rollup is great, but there comes a point when rollups aren’t great any more. It is hard to find acquisitions and hard to integrate them into the business successfully. Doesn't feel this is in the top 20 names in Canada that you should hold. Looks a lot more attractive for a trade rather than something that he would want to hold for the next 12 months.


Price: $58.970
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 COMMENT Avigilon Corp
AVO-T
James Telfser

High definition cameras. Loves to follow this name. Had been Short this not too long ago. Feels it might be in for trouble in the near-term. Any time you have a company that has a product or service that is not too difficult to replicate, you know their competitors are going to try to copy. High levels of revenue growth are built into the stock, and he tries to stick to the value side of things which gives you a margin of error.


Price: $15.320
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 HOLD Avigilon Corp
AVO-T
Jason Donville

Its strengths and weaknesses are roughly in balance, so this would be a Hold, and we need to see a resolution on something. There seems to be something going on underneath the surface of the company, which he feels has to do with the personalities of the people at the top. At this price it looks cheap, but he wouldn't be a seller or adding until there was some conclusion.


Price: $15.320
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-24 BUY Brookfield Asset Management (A)
BAM.A-T
James Telfser

Sold off from its highs of $55. An interesting play that he likes. You are getting real estate, infrastructure, utilities and into the asset management side of their business. Very defensive type business model.


Price: $52.760
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 HOLD Bombardier Inc (B)
BBD.B-T
James Telfser

A lot of people are Short on this. If they can have a nice earnings beat, he thinks there could be a very nice pop on the stock. If you own, he would not be selling, but holding to see how this quarter goes. The Cdn$ actually benefits a company like this.


Price: $3.830
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 COMMENT Bank of Montreal
BMO-T
James Telfser

Nothing has changed much for the banks, and he has been gun shy for the last year thinking they were going to slip on some of their earnings announcements. They haven't yet. He took a small position in this because of their US exposure. Mortgage rates keep going down, which should be a boost to the banks.


Price: $81.510
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 WATCH Canam Group Inc.
CAM-T
James Telfser

Makes bridges and industrial buildings. This has had a bit of a wild ride. Had 2 quarters where they really disappointed. The 1st quarter this year was weather related, and this last quarter they missed expectations because their back log was too big. Margins got squeezed and they weren’t getting the amount of work done. They have to hire a lot of people to get through that back log. If you hold this name, watch next week when they report to see where this company goes. He thinks it was just 2 short term misses. He has a lot of faith in management.


Price: $11.320
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 PAST TOP PICK CCL Industries (B)
CCL.B-T
James Telfser

(A Top Pick Nov 26/13. Up 36.9%.) Labels. Growth will be about 3%. Considers this as an anchor position in his portfolios. This gives a lot of kickers, in that they can make acquisitions. Generates a lot of cash. Every acquisition they have made has been hugely accretive.


Price: $114.500
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 PAST TOP PICK Com Dev International Ltd.
CDV-T
James Telfser

(A Top Pick Nov 26/13. Down 5.69%.) Sold his holdings but is now back into it at lower levels. A very lumpy business where you are selling big projects. All the budget constraints on satellites in the US affected them. To offset that, there is positive news coming out of their ExactEarth, which tracks ships, etc. all over the globe through satellite.


Price: $3.670
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 BUY Chesswood Group
CHW-T
Jason Donville

Great company. Doesn't quite have the ROE that he looks for, but even so it is a Buy. Thinks the dividend is going to be fine. Got a little bit ahead of itself when it went up to $18-$19. At this price it is quite attractive.


Price: $13.970
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-10-24 BUY on WEAKNESS Clearwater Seafoods Inc.
CLR-T
James Telfser

A very interesting consumer staple name in Canada which has good upside. Pricing has been very firm on shellfish. This company has a very defined growth strategy, looking for new quotas or companies they can buy to get more supply, to be able to sell more. In the meantime, you are getting a company that generates a reasonable amount of cash. They pay a little dividend, and it is not a bad business to be in. Defensive in that they sell globally. Demand for seafood is picking up. He would wait for a bit of a pullback.


Price: $11.240
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-24 DON'T BUY Capital Power
CPX-T
James Telfser

For a long time hold, this is probably one of the better utility names that he likes. A good play. Power prices have been quite low in Alberta where they have a lot of their business. Struggled in this most recent quarter and got hit pretty hard for a utility. A more interesting name, that has more upside in the next 6 to 24 months, would be Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.A-T).


Price: $25.870
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 HOLD Crew Energy Inc.
CR-T
Jason Donville

One of the premier up and coming natural gas names. If you are bullish on natural gas, this is a good name. Stock is still weak here. Don't sell your energy stocks now, wait until the coldest time of the year, such as January.


Price: $7.320
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-24 TOP PICK Constellation Software Inc.
CSU-T
Jason Donville

(A Top Pick Oct 18/13. Up 61.96%.) His target price for the end of 2015 is $400. They are the best allocators. Have a strong balance sheet. If you are only going to own one stock in Canada right now, this would be it. Trading at 16.5X 2015 earnings, and is growing at 30% a year.


Price: $295.590
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 DON'T BUY Difference Capital Financial
DCF-T
Jason Donville

This is going to be a tough company for the retail investor to own into. There are obviously some very good personalities behind this company, but there are not a lot of earnings right now. They have a lot of investments that are in non-public companies or almost like venture capitalist type of investments. There are probably better ways to play this area.


Price: $1.360
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-10-24 DON'T BUY DHX Media
DHX.B-T
James Telfser

Valuation on this is too rich for him. They are building in a lot of the positive news that has happened. It has been a good story.


Price: $8.980
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 TOP PICK Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc.
DND-T
Jason Donville

We are in an environment right now where pharmaceutical companies are very hot commodities. You either have to acquire things or you have to be acquired. This company is attractive in both respects. Have a great lead drug for teenage acne which is doing very well. Also, have a lot of cash. This could simultaneously be a very attractive acquisition or they could turn around and use that cash to buy other things in their product offering. They have a lot of options right now. His guess is that we are going to get reconciliation one way or another in the next six months. They are either going to buy a bunch of stuff or going to get a big pop in their rating or get taken out by somebody at a higher price. Trading at 13X earnings with about a 35% ROE.


Price: $11.600
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 HOLD Encana Corp
ECA-T
James Telfser

Has been impressed with this company. All the deals they have been doing recently to transform themselves into what it is today, is going to be good for them in the long run. Balance sheet is a lot cleaner now than it used to be. They are executing on the plan that they set out for themselves. Would look at this one if the market started to turn around.


Price: $20.630
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 HOLD Element Financial
EFN-T
James Telfser

Great story. Doesn't hold, but one of the ones that are at the top of his radar. Looks interesting where it is trading. Made some big deals. He likes companies that make transformational deals where the market is not giving credit. Analysts’ estimates revisions have been very high. A little higher on evaluation side than where he wants to be, so hasn't pulled the trigger yet.


Price: $12.840
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 DON'T BUY Element Financial
EFN-T
Jason Donville

This one makes him a little bit nervous in terms of valuation and the rate at which they acquire businesses and the kind they acquire. At this stage in the cycle, this is not one that he would be an owner of. Generally speaking, as the economic cycle goes longer and longer, investors  should lighten up on financials. Some day, when things go bad, financials will lead us into it.


Price: $12.840
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-10-24 COMMENT Empire Company (A)
EMP.A-T
James Telfser

Empire (EMP.A-T) or High Liner (HLF-T)? He would choose this company. It is defensive in this environment of volatility. The last quarter they reported was quite strong and they beat expectations. Margins had grown. Saw some of the synergies from the Safeway acquisition start to come through, and he thinks this is going to just accelerate. Food inflation has actually been okay.


Price: $76.500
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 BUY Equitable Group
EQB-T
Jason Donville

Good company. Screens very well right now. He has made his bets on Home Capital (HCG-T), which has a higher return on equity. In the context of everything he looks at, both of these would be a Buy.


Price: $65.700
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-10-24 TOP PICK Firstservice Corp
FSV-T
James Telfser

Considers this as an anchor in financial services. Huge amount of recurring revenue from a lot of their brands. They manage residential buildings as well as owning a lot of interesting businesses. The crown jewel for them is their Colliers brand, which is selling businesses, but also managing portfolios of commercial buildings. This business has been growing in the low double-digits, and he expects it to continue. Margins have been growing. Dividend yield of 0.72%. A company that you can hold for many years and be rewarded.


Price: $62.620
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 TOP PICK CGI Group (A)
GIB.A-T
Jason Donville

The long-term on this company is that every year it has 20% ROE. Trades at 9.9X 2015 earnings. Well-managed and throws off a lot of cash flow. They buy back their stock. He is pretty comfortable that it will be 20% higher. It should be $8 higher in year’s time.


Price: $37.470
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 PAST TOP PICK Home Capital Group
HCG-T
Jason Donville

(A Top Pick Oct 18/13. Up 39.04%.) There is a tremendous amount of intellectual capital tied up in the building. You get a steady 20% ROE. Very, very low loan losses, because their loan to value is very, very low.


Price: $52.120
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 COMMENT High Liner Foods
HLF-T
James Telfser

Empire (EMP.A-T) or High Liner (HLF-T)? He would choose Empire.


Price: $22.030
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-24 HOLD High Liner Foods
HLF-T
Jason Donville

Checked back to about $20, but now seems to be finding its footing. If some people are nervous about where the economy is going, the food companies tend to be very, very defensive. Thinks it will back up into the $25 point in six months, if not sooner, and then you will be into profit territory.


Price: $22.030
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 COMMENT High Arctic Energy Services Inc
HWO-T
James Telfser

A great name. Got knocked around like crazy in the last few weeks, which was completely overdone. They operate in Papua New Guinea, and have recently expanded their operations. Just bought 2 rigs, and they still have to contract the 2nd one. That is the catalyst that will get the shares really moving.


Price: $4.260
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 WAIT Liquor Stores N. A.
LIQ-T
James Telfser

You have to love how this rallies in all the volatility. Has been following this one for the last 2 years and it has been a complete disappointment. Management has done a great job of getting out there and telling the story of what they are going to do. They have a plan in place. He is getting a little more faith that management is going to be able to do what they say. We are only in the first or second inning of this turnaround. Dividend is safe.


Price: $13.330
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 HOLD Manulife Financial
MFC-T
James Telfser

Likes their Asian position. Asia is still growing at a pretty fast clip and is not a concern to him. Prefers Sun Life (SLF-T) which can do a little bit more with their capital.


Price: $20.540
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 BUY Magna Int'l. (A)
MG-T
James Telfser

An attractive time to look at a company like this. Valuation is still reasonable at around 10X earnings. Auto sales numbers in North America and Europe haven't been that bad. They like to give earnings back to shareholders in the form of buy backs or dividends. Prefers Linamar (LNR-T).


Price: $108.380
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 TOP PICK New Flyer Industries Inc.
NFI-T
James Telfser

Bus manufacturing. An interesting business that is quite stable. They sell a ton of buses into the US. The US has been making more and more money as the economy improves, and municipalities/states have been buying more buses. Likes the shift they are making into making acquisitions. Have bought a couple of companies over the last few years, including parts makers, and are getting to be a much more reasonable player in the after parts market business. EBITDA per unit, in this last quarter, blew analysts’ expectations away. Dividend yield of 4.55%.


Price: $13.100
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 HOLD Onex Corp
OCX-T
Jason Donville

Thinks the way to play this over the cycle is to try and anticipate when a lot of its private equity investments are going to crystallize. That is what generates the profitability and the asset value of the company. If you have a sense of when there is a big IPO cycle, then away you go. His sense is that cycle did probably peak 3-4 months ago, so if you own you probably have had your short-term little pop. Longer-term, this is evolving into a broad based company where they are always launching new funds. This is one that you just salt away and just let it go.


Price: $61.350
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-24 PAST TOP PICK Open Text
OTC-T
James Telfser

(A Top Pick Nov 26/13. Up 31.83%.) Still likes this a lot. Part of the thesis on this was that they were coming out with a whole new product refresh that was going to cause an uptick in license revenue growth, or they were going to use some of their cash to make some acquisitions. Both of those things have happened. Have a big Cloud component now. Their Red Oxygen is now selling very well into their customers. Last quarter they had over 20% license growth. Earnings beat quite handily and margins were growing. Has added to his holdings. Thinks they have good long-term prospects.


Price: $59.690
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 SPECULATIVE BUY Patient Home Monitoring
PHM-X
Jason Donville

A great little junior concept stock. Actually based in LA and have operations all over the US. This is an American company listed on the TSE. Management is saying all the right things, but it is still early days right now. Growth looks good. Company is going to be profitable right from the get-go. Management is committed to not raising a lot of money through equities, so you are not going to get diluted. He has a very small position in this, and he is going to watch it quarter by quarter and just grow up with the company. Too early to back up the truck.


Price: $0.440
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 PAST TOP PICK Parkland Fuel Corp
PKI-T
Jason Donville

(A Top Pick Oct 18/13. Up 17.7%.) Sold his holdings at around $19.50, because the ROE was a little bit lower than what he was looking for. Just did an acquisition in Ontario and he may end up going back into the name.


Price: $20.670
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-10-24 HOLD Questor Technology
QST-X
Jason Donville

Anything related to natural gas has been beaten up here. He has a small position in this and is waiting for the quarter. If it comes out good, he will be adding to his position. They are soon going to be looking at waste heat as well. Great little technology company.


Price: $3.420
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 HOLD Rifco Inc.
RFC-X
Jason Donville

Later in an economic cycle and you get your first downturn, consumer finance companies are going to get a little beaten up. If you hold these for 10-15 years, it's fine as they always bounce back higher than before. If you are someone who is occasionally adding or subtracting to your portfolio, then these are the kinds of companies you want to lighten up on. The only offsetting factor is that one of its main competitors got bought out. Given where interest rates are, a lot of big financial institutions want to be in this space. Later in the cycle, he might be turning his holdings but currently he is holding on as he has a feeling that this one is going to get taken out by someone.


Price: $5.840
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 HOLD Sunlife Financial
SLF-T
James Telfser

If looking for some stability in your portfolio and something for the long-term, this is a great stock. He tends to like insurance companies a little bit better than banks here. Valuations are reasonable. Have really improved their capital ratios, and they have a lot of cash so they can start doing something interesting with that.


Price: $39.160
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 TOP PICK Sandvine Corp.
SVC-T
James Telfser

Believes in their revenue growth story. This deep packet inspection, in being able to charge for different areas of your mobility and data plans, will ultimately benefit them down the road. Companies like Netflix or HBO will want to offer some kind of services, where they can pay for your data usage on those plans. World class products. 10% of their sales in the last quarter were from IBM (IBM-N). At these levels, your downside risk is very limited.


Price: $2.780
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-24 COMMENT Sierra Wireless
SW-T
Jason Donville

Good company but evaluation is pretty rich in his numbers. Estimated PE is 65, so as some point in time there is going to be a correction of valuation, or they have to have a massive surge in earnings to justify that valuation.


Price: $29.810
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-10-24 WAIT Trinidad Drilling Ltd
TDG-T
James Telfser

This is one that he is watching. You have to be careful in this environment. Sentiment indicators on oil and gas are crazy low, but that doesn't mean they can't get lower. He is looking for some direction on the oil price, which will definitely play into the thesis on a name like this. A cheap name and a high-quality name.


Price: $7.280
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 WATCH Tourmaline Oil Corp
TOU-T
James Telfser

Had a nice bounce back but is now hitting lows again. A high-quality name. Good growth story. Superb management team. These are the types of names you want to focus on when we do hit bottom in oil/gas.


Price: $41.230
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-10-24 COMMENT Wanted Technologies
WAN-X
Jason Donville

Great company and great technology, but they have a kind of lumpy cycle. The financial year they are coming into right now is going to be a bit muted and the following year should be quite strong. This has to do with the timing of contracts and the timing of investments and launches. It might stall out on you for about 6 months until people start anticipating the following financial year. The catalyst for better earnings is still 6-9 months away. If you are in for a 3-4 year view, you are going to do well, but if your timeframe is shorter than that it may not be as happy an experience.


Price: $1.130
Subject: GROWTH & FINANCIALS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-23 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Bill Harris, CFA

Markets.  We were incredibly oversold and so we are having a rally now.  Interest rates have collapsed this year from 3.0% to 2.2% this year.  It is worse for finding yield in fixed income so you have to go back into the stock market.  We really saw the hit in the mid-cap, retail investor stocks.  Oil came off also so oil stocks should be looked at.


Price: $0.020
Subject: RESOURCE
Bias: BULL on OIL
Owned: _N/A
2014-10-23 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Greg Newman

Markets. To really understand what has happened, you have to isolate what brought this market down. There were a lot of contributing factors such as Ebola, terrible events in Ottawa, but the key is understanding where Europe is going. There were encouraging data points out of Europe today and a big market rally, which was not surprising. If you can see more data points like that on its own, he thinks you have the next leg up of this bull market. Unfortunately. today is just one data point. You need more before you can be sure. Also, markets can go higher if investors become confident enough that the ECB has investors back. The ECB is mostly job owning. It might even be beyond the ECB at this point, and requires the involvement of Germany and a fiscal stimulus. This is what has markets so worried. If you can see PMI's rising in Europe like they did today, stocks look really good. Stocks do want to go higher and the Bulls do want to run, but you definitely need Europe. It is typical that there was the retracement we had today, but you wouldn't buy just based on this snap back. You would buy if you are seeing a change. If you see the weak data points that we saw in September in Europe as just a summer slowdown, and will be actually snapping back on their own, it doesn't matter that they are feeble. What investors need to see is that it is trending in the right direction. This is really a “wait and see” to see who does carry the next leg. It really does depend on Europe.


Price: $0.020
Subject: CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-10-23 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Greg Newman

Banks or oil companies for sustainability of dividends? First of all, payout ratios on the banks are between 40% and 50%. He doesn't know if the Canadian bank has ever cut its dividend. You have the highest assurance of quality in banks. Energy names are in the penalty box with an uncertainty and a question mark around oil. Capital wants to go somewhere. If investors are not looking at oil and at telecom stocks, they're going to go to bank stocks.


Price: $0.020
Subject: CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-10-23 DON'T BUY Altagas Ltd
ALA-T
Bill Harris, CFA

He always tries to own some infrastructure.  These are great long term investments.  The problem is that the valuation is extreme.  A great company that is on his list, but he finds others elsewhere that are cheaper.


Price: $46.860
Subject: RESOURCE
Bias: BULL on OIL
Owned: No
2014-10-23 WATCH AltiusMinerals Corp
ALS-T
Bill Harris, CFA

They have the nickel royalty for Voisey Bay.  The nickel market is so messed up with Indonesia banning exports.  You might be able to get the stock relatively inexpensively soon.


Price: $11.440
Subject: RESOURCE
Bias: BULL on OIL
Owned: No
2014-10-23 TOP PICK Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
AQN-T
Greg Newman

(A Top Pick Oct 2/13. 45.6%.) This is an interest-rate call. Also, based on the view that markets are not going to be easy over the next 12 months as they were over the last 12. This is a power/utility, a kind of gentle place to be. Yet they've got 30% adjusted earnings growth that he models over the next couple of years. Cheap at 8X versus its peers of around 7.7. He models a 10% dividend growth over the next couple of years. Dividend yield of 4.39%.


Price: $8.890
Subject: CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-10-23 HOLD Arc Resources Ltd
ARX-T
Greg Newman

He is modeling this assuming that WTI oil is at $80 and stays there, and natural gas is at $3.50 and stays there. The balance sheet is still very strong. Cash flow is 1.1X versus its peers at around 3X. Cash flow growth would still be very strong at around 16%. Dividend growth rate would still be quite good with the payout ratio of about 117%, still sustainable relative to its peers at that level of about 145%. Valuation would still be good. An excellent operator with great resources. They stand to benefit from a lot of LNG opportunities opening up, seeing that they are 40% exposed to natural gas.


Price: $27.980
Subject: CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-23 DON'T BUY Bonavista Energy Corp
BNP-T
Bill Harris, CFA

The internal numbers are not super sexy so it trades with the market.  The commodity is low.  Prefers others with better operating numbers.


Price: $11.080
Subject: RESOURCE
Bias: BULL on OIL
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-23 BUY Bonavista Energy Corp
BNP-T
Greg Newman

He still sees cash flow growth of about 11.4%, 2013-2015 with $80 oil and $3.50 gas. However, debt to cash flow does go higher at 2.2, which isn't horrible. Payout ratio goes to 134%, which is better than the group. It was cheap before at 5.1 with $96 oil, and at $80 oil it is 6.1, which is still cheap. If you are risk tolerant, you could buy this. LNG opportunities are starting to unfold.


Price: $11.080
Subject: CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-23 BUY Baytex Energy Corp
BTE-T
Bill Harris, CFA

Likes it and thinks the dividend is sustainable.  Likes the management team.  They get a Canadian dollar western Canadian price.  The reduced differential should benefit them.


Price: $36.220
Subject: RESOURCE
Bias: BULL on OIL
Owned: Unknown
2014-10-23 HOLD Baytex Energy Corp
BTE-T
Greg Newman

This is a good one. At this lower oil price, he still sees cash flow growth at around 18%. Dividend is still okay. Payout ratio would rise to 120%, but still pretty sustainable relative to its peers. Valuation would still be attractive at 6.8 versus the group at around 9. Cash flow would still be pretty good.


Price: $36.220
Subject: CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
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