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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

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Date Signal Company Expert Opinion Price
2014-12-19 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John Zechner

Markets. Thinks the markets have been lifted by the belief that Central Banks are going to be the ultimate Put and the great saviour. Look at what is happening in the US, the promises that Draghi is making in the ECB, China cutting their rates. At some point he would just like to see better economic growth. US is doing all right, but thinks they are going to run into some headwinds next year. Trading partners are doing so poorly which will impact their numbers at some point. The market is a little elevated right now, and it needs a healthy correction of 10% or even 20%. Not seeing a lot of things that he would want to be buying. It is pretty hard to find decent value out there. He is getting a lot more defensive in his holdings.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-19 DON'T BUY A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John Zechner

Pipelines? He is not a fan of them here. People have been hiding in them for the past couple of years. They are defensive, but he just can’t buy the valuations.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John Zechner

Conventional drilling versus fracing? Fracing injects steam and chemicals into the ground, which breaks up rock in order to get oil to flow out of it. There are environmental impacts that are still being debated. Feels there is still a bit of an issue with fracing, more than there is with conventional deep drilling. He would rather own the deep drillers than the fracing companies, until some of this sorts itself out.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-19 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Keith Richards

TSX. He has been talking about a double bottom. It is early to say, but if you look at what has happened, there was a low in October, and just over the past few days, there was a little bit of a lift. We could possibly be putting in a double bottom over the next little while, as long as the October lows hold and we could see a nice bounce. A double bottom, by definition, would be if we break the neck line at just under 15,000. If we break that, it could be quite bullish. The problem is that the main components of the TSX are energy, banks and base metals. The banks aren’t too bad, but the other 2 are not looking so great.

S&P 500 From a technical perspective, this has been and continues to be a much better place to be. You are looking at higher highs and higher lows. There is absolutely no take-out of the lows. Technical analysts also look at breadth, the number of sectors that are participating in a given rally. There has been fairly wide anticipation through this whole bull market.

Oil. Technically there was some support at $54-$55. There was a bit of a formation after we hit a bottom in 2009, where it bounced from around $37 to the $54 area. Some consolidation $54-$55 on WTI, and that is exactly where it hit recently. We need to stay above that level. The bigger trend for oil is Down, and in a bear market, there is usually a reflective bounce. He thinks that is what we are getting right now. We may get another couple of weeks of upside on oil, but his instinct is that this is in a genuine bear market. He has only one energy position in his portfolio, and will use this upside as an opportunity to get rid of it in the next 2-3 weeks.


Price: $0.020
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-19 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Keith Richards

WTI Oil. Most of the commodities peaked at around 2011. From 2011 to now, the charts had formed a very large symmetrical triangle. This summer, it broke down out of that triangle. It is holding support now at around $54-$55, but after a short-term bounce, he thinks it is going to hit in the $40’s.


Price: $0.020
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-19 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Keith Richards

How do Moving Averages work? These are simply trend followers. The only thing you should use a Moving Average for is to determine if the trend is in a particular direction at this particular moment. It is not a great trading vehicle per se, so if you are trying to time your entry or exit off of a moving average, he is not so sure he would do it. He would prefer just the basic formations and use things like oscillators.


Price: $0.020
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-19 BUY Apple
AAPL-Q
John Zechner

He likes it here. If someone asked what sector he would stick with, it would be US technology. There is tremendous growth here. Likes their product lines, which he thinks have not been monetized fully yet. Valuation is less then the market multiple, and they are sitting on a huge amount of cash. Relatively cheap.


Price: $111.780
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 COMMENT Apple
AAPL-Q
Keith Richards

It does have pullbacks once in a while, but the overall look is pretty good. Nice looking chart. The three-year chart shows a cup formation followed by a breakout this year and currently in an uptrend. Currently pulling back to the trend line, but basically this stock is looking pretty bullish.


Price: $111.780
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT Barrick Gold
ABX-T
John Zechner

It is incredible how this keeps going down. You keep thinking there is a bottom on this and it just keeps going down and down. Has been disappointing this last few years. He doesn’t think you want to be without gold in your portfolio, given where the US$ is and given the amount of monetary stimulation on a global basis. This is probably not a bad anchor name. He prefers others.


Price: $12.590
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT Bank of America
BAC-N
John Zechner

This bank would love to be able to have a dividend right now, but are still paying the debts back from the financial crisis and paying what they have to pay to the regulators. Thinks they will eventually be allowed to. There is some good earnings leverage here. This has had a pretty decent run. He has taken a little bit of money off the table.


Price: $17.620
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 COMMENT Baytex Energy Corp
BTE-T
John Zechner

Google (GOOGL-Q) or Baytex Energy (BTE-T)? Completely different animals, but to him Google is one of the great growth stories out there. This one is an oversold play in the energy sector and depends on where energy settles out.


Price: $20.890
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT Comcast Corp
CMCSA-Q
Keith Richards

Anything in the technology area is generally okay. Chart is showing a nice long upwards trend line. He likes the look of it.


Price: $57.170
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 DON'T BUY Canadian Natural Rsrcs
CNQ-T
Keith Richards

There is a certain amount of leverage that you have to pay attention to that comes from oil prices. The three-year chart shows a cup formation followed by a breakout this year. It reached a peak and then broke down through the last low. From a pure technical analysis point of view, this stock is now in a bear trend. Until it reverses, the potential target is around $28. He would not want to own this until it stops falling, bases, and then moves up.


Price: $36.630
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT Canadian Oil Sands
COS-T
John Zechner

There has been a massive short covering in the last several days. Has been selling into this recent bounce, as he doesn’t feel it is necessarily sustainable. It could still be retesting these bottoms.


Price: $11.370
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 DON'T BUY Crescent Point Energy Corp
CPG-T
John Zechner

They haven’t cut the dividend yet, but thinks they are probably going to have to at some point. They were paying out almost 100%, even though they have some hedges on. He is not buying in this sector even though it has come down a lot.


Price: $28.610
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-12-19 COMMENT Constellation Software Inc.
CSU-T
Keith Richards

Chart shows a strong uptrend from 2011. Anything technology driven tends to do quite well over the earlier part of the winter. He is very long on the tech stocks right now. It may be a tiny bit ahead of itself, but generally speaking up is good and down is bad.


Price: $327.030
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 WATCH CSX Corp
CSX-N
Keith Richards

This is in an uptrend. When a stock is in an uptrend, it often tests the trend line. If this gets down to around the low $30, that may be time to buy it. Wait for a test of the trend line and for the stock to bounce off it. Until that happens, he wouldn’t buy it.


Price: $35.760
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 TOP PICK Walt Disney
DIS-N
John Zechner

When you look at what they own and what they have, this is what everybody wants to be. They want content, they want integrated content. Their acquisitions have been phenomenal. Yield of 1.24%. A multiple of 20 times, in this environment, is not expensive.


Price: $92.890
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 SPECULATIVE BUY Denison Mines Corp
DML-T
John Zechner

He is sort of bullish that uranium prices go higher over the next couple of years, north of $50. If you want a little more leverage and take a little more risk, this is a kind that you can get a double or triple on, when uranium prices start to move.


Price: $1.160
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 DON'T BUY Dollarama Inc.
DOL-T
John Zechner

He has a hard time telling you to “buy it” in here. It is going to be a beneficiary of a lower oil prices where people take their excess money and spend it in places like this. Money has moved from the resource sector and into the growth sector moving evaluations to all-time highs.


Price: $59.360
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT Dr. Pepper Snapple Group
DPS-N
Keith Richards

Had a pretty strong move this year. It looks like it is trying to test the trend line. If you were to draw a 200 day moving average, you will usually find that it will keep a certain distance off the trend. If it gets too high, 10% or more over that average, you will typically see it return to the trend line. He thinks that is all that is happening on the stock and it is not in danger, but you could see it pull back a bit more.


Price: $71.660
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 PAST TOP PICK Element Financial
EFN-T
John Zechner

(A Top Pick Feb 10/14. Up 11.33%.) Has done all right this year. Thinks they are on the verge of hitting an acceleration in earnings growth over the next 2 years. Has taken his position down a little, as he is a little worried about the railcar business where there could be a bit of a slowdown. A lot of that is related to energy and the movement of oil and coal. This could slow down a little bit. Still a good story.


Price: $14.260
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 WATCH First Quantum Minerals
FM-T
Keith Richards

Probably one of the better quality metal plays. If you look at a chart on metals in general, it has been pretty soft for the last few years. This is a pretty good quality company. He would prefer to see a bounce off its support level, and then would consider owning it.


Price: $15.850
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: No
2014-12-19 COMMENT Google
GOOGL-Q
John Zechner

Google (GOOGL-Q) or Baytex Energy (BTE-T)? Completely different animals, but to him Google is one of the great growth stories out there. They haven’t really monetized their Android system. They own “search” on a global basis and have so much power they haven’t monetized. You are getting all of this at basically a market multiple with a great balance sheet. This would be the one that would allow him to sleep at nights over the next couple of years.


Price: $520.040
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 SELL Google
GOOGL-Q
Keith Richards

This has been an under performer. The trouble is that institutions are going to go where the money goes. Because of this, there is going to be a certain amount of pressure on the stock. Chart indicates that this has broken down through a trend line. Also, the last low at around $530 has been broken through and is now at $520. That is not a good thing. There might be better alternatives.


Price: $520.040
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT iShares Nasdaq BioTech ETF
IBB-Q
John Zechner

When you look at the largest companies in this, it is Amgen, Gilead Sciences, etc. He recently shorted this in his hedge fund as he thought it was a little stretched on valuations. If you want to play big biotech and growth biotech this is a good one.


Price: $317.200
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT Keyera Corp
KEY-T
Keith Richards

Fundamentally, this is one of the better pipeline stocks. For a short-term trader, there is probably a bounce due. Thinks you are okay as either a short-term trader or a long term trader, on the stock.


Price: $75.750
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 WAIT Las Vegas Sands Corp.
LVS-N
Keith Richards

Like all casino stocks, this is pretty volatile, but they can be great trading vehicles. The trick is to watch for the bottom formations. Whenever you are looking at a stock like this, you wait for a pullback, and then a base, and a break out. This has not started to do that yet. He would not buy this until it starts to move up.


Price: $56.440
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: No
2014-12-19 WATCH Mosaic Capital
M-X
Keith Richards

The big picture is reasonable, but it may be possibly breaking down. He doesn’t like that the chart shows a series of troughs that it has successfully tested, and it kind of appears to be breaking down right now. Looking for higher highs and lower lows, this may be on the verge of taking out that last low. It’s a little early to tell, but be a little cautious. Volume has been quite light in the last several days, which would indicate a lack of conviction.


Price: $11.450
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT Manulife Financial
MFC-T
John Zechner

This is his top holding in financials right now. Their restructuring is working out well. Core earnings are closing in and are on target for 2016 to be better than $2 a share. Has a great international diversification. The hedging programs they have had in place have protected investors a little bit more from market moves. There is a benefit for all the lifecos, and that is if US interest rates are to go higher.


Price: $22.200
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 TOP PICK Martinrea
MRE-T
John Zechner

He is looking for things that are more deep value oriented. This has some growth over the next couple of years, and is trading at a fairly discounted multiple. There has been some disappointment over the management shuffle and infightings over the past years, but in terms of the programs they have put in place and the spending, he can see an earnings growth over the next couple of years of 35%-40%. Also, they have great exposure to aluminum, and using this in cars is a trend going forward. Yield of 1.21%. Can see it 40%-50%-60% higher in a couple of years.


Price: $9.770
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 DON'T BUY Methanex Corp
MX-T
John Zechner

Has had a tremendous run. He sold his holdings. This is not a well controlled supply. He doesn’t know what is going to happen with this move in oil and the input costs. There seems to be a lot of new potential sources of supply at these prices.


Price: $54.810
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-12-19 COMMENT Prometic Life Sciences Inc.
PLI-T
Keith Richards

Whenever you look at charts, you start from the big picture and work your way down. This is a reasonably long chart. On the very big picture you’ve got an uptrend in place. This is defined by higher highs and higher lows. When a stock gets too high above its trend line, it often corrects. It doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world, but it does mean that if you don’t already own it, sometimes you’ll wait a little while for it to correct.


Price: $1.950
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT Potash Corp of Saskatchewan
POT-T
Keith Richards

Agriculture has been rather choppy over the past couple of years. This one bottomed out in 2013 and started to recover, but is currently in a bit of a flat line. Peaked at around $41, so there is going to be some selling pressure. If it can break up through the $41, it could be good, however, you then have another set of sellers coming in at the mid-$40.


Price: $41.490
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 WATCH Power Corp
POW-T
Keith Richards

Chart is showing a consolidation. Don’t buy it until it breaks out on volume. Around $36 is the resistance, and if it moves through that several days on volume, it would be a great Buy signal.


Price: $30.950
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 PAST TOP PICK Quebecor Inc (B)
QBR.B-T
John Zechner

(A Top Pick Feb 10/14. Up 33.07%.) Feels this could be a legitimate 4th player in Canadian telecoms. They are strong in the Québec market, and they could expand into the rest of Canada. They are now starting to generate positive free cash flow. A good story.


Price: $31.710
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 SELL Restaurent Brands International
QSR-T
John Zechner

Feels there is a lot more risk in this than there was before. Burger King bought this at a pretty high valuation and they have to be able to justify this at generating earnings off of it. There is always risk in any merger. Thinks the Burger King model did not have as much growth built in as Tim Hortons’ did.


Price: $47.030
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 DON'T BUY Sherritt International Corp.
S-T
Keith Richards

This company, like most of the industrial type companies, is trending down. As a technical analyst, he wouldn’t even look at the stock at this time. Until he sees the trend line broken and some sort of a base, there is no reason to own the stock when there are so many great looking charts out there which are actually doing what he wants them to do.


Price: $3.230
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 PAST TOP PICK Thompson Creek Metals
TCM-T
John Zechner

Has always been a molybdenum player, but doesn’t see any great upside. There is an excess supply. This comes out as a by-product. They did an acquisition, which was mostly copper, and has struggled with that a little. He would prefer some of the larger names that have more diversified exposure.


Price: $2.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 COMMENT Trinidad Drilling Ltd
TDG-T
John Zechner

Likes the management, the story and the joint venture there running with Halliburton. The problem is, all the oil companies are cutting back on their CapX for the next couple of years, and the most impacted by that are the drilling companies.


Price: $5.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 TOP PICK Talisman Energy
TLM-T
John Zechner

When he sees what Repsol is paying for this company, he wonders what they are doing. If you own, take your money and run.


Price: $9.140
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 TOP PICK Transat A.T. Inc (B)
TRZ.B-T
John Zechner

Not really an airline per se, but is really a travel company. They own the hotels and the destinations. That has always been a lumpier business which has impacted the stock. They are sitting on almost as much cash per share as the current share price, so you are getting almost the operating company for free, and it is generating $100 million in operating earnings. Have done a restructuring on their transatlantic routes because they were losing money in France, but have done a lot to drop the costs there. Now they have to fix their winter destinations a little bit. Very cheap.


Price: $8.530
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 PAST TOP PICK Tata Motors Ltd.
TTM-N
Keith Richards

(A Top Pick Nov 7/14. Down 11.07%.) The Bombay market fell quite strongly along with everything else in December. This is one of their larger cap stocks. However, the trend is up. The last low in October was $41, and the stock has been playing with this figure this week. As long as it holds, you can consider buying it at these prices. If it breaks below $41 and stays for more than a week or 2, he would actually Sell it. Fundamentals are pretty strong on this.


Price: $41.390
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 PAST TOP PICK Uranium Participation Corp.
U-T
John Zechner

(A Top Pick Feb 10/14. Down 5.43%.) Price of uranium has moved up a little bit this year. This used to trade right in line with uranium, but is discounting uranium at about $34, where the actual price of uranium is $38. Thinks uranium is definitely going north of $50 in the next couple of years. Feels this ultimately has to go higher.


Price: $5.080
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 COMMENT Visa Inc.
V-N
Keith Richards

Shorting and covering? The bigger trend on the stock is not bad. The chart shows that this is definitely overbought. Technically speaking, he does not like shorting stocks in an uptrend. Possibly a cover might be at $228. Watch momentum oscillators for a round over, and then short them and cover at $228. There is a lot of risk in shorting.


Price: $261.670
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 WATCH Vecima Networks Inc.
VCM-T
Keith Richards

Not a bad looking chart. Went a little parabolic in 2014, so the current correction was probably deserved and needed to keep the stock healthy. Hasn’t broken down through the trend line. If you don’t own the stock, watch for the bounce off the trend line, just to be safe.


Price: $8.620
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-19 TOP PICK WSP Global Inc.
WSP-T
Keith Richards

An engineering and international success story. There has been a long-term consolidation on this, in or around the high $20 area. It broke out in 2013 and broke through the previous high of around $33. It is now coming back to test. He bought on the breakout, which it is testing right now. It is probably a buying opportunity again. This stock should do well over the next few years.


Price: $34.900
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 TOP PICK SPDR Technology ETF
XLK-N
Keith Richards

(A Top Pick Nov 7/14. Up 2.32%.) Managing to hold its head above water. Technology stocks are bullish, usually until around the end of January, but sometimes he will hold them right through to the spring. The trend on the stock has been great for 3-4 years. He is very bullish on technology. The seasonal trade ends at around the end of January, but he’ll hold this right to the spring if the trend keeps going up.


Price: $41.570
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 PAST TOP PICK China Equity Hedged to Cdn ETF
ZCH-T
Keith Richards

(A Top Pick Nov 7/14. Down 2.2%.) This hasn’t worked as well as the Shanghai index, but he feels safer with this one. This one will be dragged along.


Price: $17.810
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Yes
2014-12-19 TOP PICK BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged to CAD ETF
ZUB-T
Keith Richards

From a seasonal perspective, you tend to get a bit of a pop from December to around April or so. Chart shows an uptrend through 2013 followed by a consolidation in 2014. It is now just starting to break out. He will play this for the next 4-5 months.


Price: $21.320
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias: SELECTIVE
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 BUY A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Burrows

Banks. The banks are set up for the environment that is coming toward us.  You have to pick your spots.  RY-T is probably the most attractive because it has such a large wealth management division.  The other bank he likes is TD-T because of the US footprint where they are executing well.  He would prefer a US bank because of the dividend growth.  WFC-N is one pick.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Burrows

Markets.  We have been going through an18 month market transition.  In 2012 what worked was China and the countries that supplied into the China growth story.  As the growth story in China slowed, the consumer-lead growth story started to lead.  The one commodity that held up in value was oil.  Then the oil producers sold off starting with the weaker ones.  He steadily reduced his producers to zero starting in September.  The broad market then started to step away over the last 6 weeks.  The net is that this is a continuation of what has been happening over the last 18 months.  It sets up a very positive environment for the consumer market.  There is likely to be a really strong economic tail wind.  He is focused in developed markets.  He would use this strength as a continued opportunity to sell.  You have to look at the impact of emerging market debt.  As the US dollar goes up, that debt is going up.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Burrows

Pipelines. Pipelines stocks are a group a lot of people have made money in.  It was a big weight in his income portfolios over the last 5 years.  Pipelines are the least correlated to the price of oil, but what has happened is that people have lost confidence in the pipelines and multiples have contracted.  They have long term contracts.  Low energy costs for 18 months could cause some volume loss, however.  IPL-T is probably one of the more resilient ones.  He would not put on any new positions just yet, however.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Burrows

US$.  He thinks the appreciation will continue on for years to come.  The Canadian dollar is not appreciating against world currencies as quickly as the US. 


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-18 BUY A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Burrows

US Healthcare Sector.  The biggest industry in the US.  He would pick JNJ-N.  PFE-N is good also. 


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John DeGoey

30-day rule. If you sell a stock in a self-directed cash account with a capital gain, and at the same time purchase the same stock in a self-directed TFSA,  does the 30 day rule apply? His understanding is that the answer is Yes.


Price: $0.020
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John DeGoey

Economy. It is generally conceded that next year we will still see global growth pretty sluggish and tepid. This makes it more important for investors to keep their costs low. If Real Return is fairly constant (Real Return is the return above inflation) and inflation is very low, then right away the nominal return is low. If we have tepid growth, then returns might be even lower still. We have muted growth and very little inflation, so the total return for the equity markets might be mid-single digits for the next little while. If that’s the case and you are using a traditional mutual fund where you are paying a 2.5%, that is half your return. Whatever you can do to in reduce your costs is really important. That includes the cost for advice you are getting. People who have a 7 digit portfolio should be paying less than 1% for advice.


Price: $0.020
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John DeGoey

2015 Investing Resolutions.

  1. Keep track of your household net worth (total assets -total liabilities) annually - it should be growing.
  2. Resolve to cut costs in 2015; financial advice for a 7 digit portfolio should cost >1%, IMO.
  3. Trade less. Research has shown repeatedly that trading correlates negatively to performance.
  4. Do all tax loss selling and make all charitable contributions before Christmas.
  5. Maximize all government plans if possible.
  • RRSP room can be found on your Notice of Assessment

Lifetime TFSA room is $31,000 with another $5500 in room coming in January.


Price: $0.020
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John DeGoey

Converting a stock portfolio with a lot of capital gains to an ETF? The deadline is Christmas Eve Dec 24th to have those capital gains pertinent to 2014. If you are prepared to wait for one more week, you can do the Sells and they can be counting against your 2015 tax liability, which allows you to push the tax bill back by 12 months. Make sure you keep the asset allocation consistent. On the other hand, you can do part of it for 2014, an additional part in 2015 and the rest in 2016. That will spread the tax bill out over 3 years.


Price: $0.020
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John DeGoey

Buying US stocks with Cdn$? He generally does not encourage doing this. If you have US$ already, then buy the US stocks with the US$'s.


Price: $0.020
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John DeGoey

Gold bullion ETF? Doesn't think that there is one in bullion. He would not recommend gold in general. Gold has been hovering around $1200 and he does not think it is going to change anytime soon.


Price: $0.020
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John DeGoey

What does it mean for an ETF to be Canadian dollar hedged and why is this advantageous? What you have to think about is whether or not the Canadian dollar is going to go up or down relative to the US dollar. The US dollar has been appreciating relative to the Canadian dollar for the past 4 or so months because of the drop in oil prices. As a result an unhedged position would be advantageous for you. However, if you ever thought the Canadian dollar was going up relative to the US dollar, putting the hedge in place is the way to save yourself from getting money back when you convert the currency back.


Price: $0.020
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-18 PAST TOP PICK CI Financial Corp
CIX-T
David Burrows

(Top Pick Nov. 12/13, Down 0.52%) His position is about a third of what it was a year ago.  It will continue to do well, but there is some black clouds over the Canadian market.


Price: $32.410
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY Canadian Oil Sands
COS-T
David Burrows

It is a technical rally, a bounce off the lows.  A bear market has short, sharp rallies.  They are a drop in the bucket.  COS-T is not the best in the sector, and he would prefer the best, which this isn’t, when one feels it has bottomed.  A bounce into the new year would be more of a trade.


Price: $10.750
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-12-18 TOP PICK iShares Global Agriculture ETF
COW-T
John DeGoey

Agricultural commodities and agricultural products are his favourite assets. The thesis is that farmland is being eaten up by urbanization. Global population is now over 7 billion. As farmland goes down and population goes up, it is a supply/demand thing. There are very few hard assets that have such a steady, but consistently positive upward sloping growth chart like this one has.


Price: $30.950
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 TOP PICK iShares MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target
CRBN-N
John DeGoey

This is a global product with a low carbon footprint. (A brand new product.) Exposure to high carbon things can be a real drag on your portfolio performance. It doesn’t exclude carbon products; it just significantly underweight’s them, while getting exposure to the rest of the world.


Price: $92.550
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2014-12-18 TOP PICK Walt Disney
DIS-N
David Burrows

One of the first places people spend money when they have more.  They are opening a new theme park in China.  Their media businesses are doing well.  Strong balance sheet and they are likely to win in a better environment.


Price: $92.610
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 TOP PICK Electronics Arts Inc
EA-Q
David Burrows

The consumer has more money in their pockets now.  EA-Q has a broad range of customers from young to old.  They will now spend more money in gaming.  Now more and more sales are being done online so that a retailer is being cut out.  The customers are repeat customers, constantly upgrading their games.  Their business model is changing and their margins are going higher.


Price: $47.240
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 BUY FT AphaDEX US Health Care
FHH-T
John DeGoey

A fairly new US healthcare hedged back to Canadian dollars. This is a good way to get exposure to the sector.


Price: $20.500
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY First Quantum Minerals
FM-T
David Burrows

Metals and minerals may have a really between now and end of year, but the trend is lower and under performance.  The cycle is done for them.  The last marginal dollar of demand is slowing.  Stay away from the sector.


Price: $16.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 BUY Gilead Sciences Inc.
GILD-Q
David Burrows

Health care has been about the best performing sector.  An interesting company because they have lots of products and there are lots of catalysts coming.  This is where money is going during the rally.


Price: $105.540
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY Google
GOOGL-Q
David Burrows

Internet stocks as a group have underperformed recently due to profit taking.  One of the concerns now is how much revenue is out there and available for online advertising.  We are seeing money move toward more economically sensitive names.  There has been tax loss selling recently.  He is still in AAPL, semiconductors, and security software however.


Price: $514.620
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-12-18 PAST TOP PICK Home Depot
HD-N
David Burrows

(Top Pick Nov. 12/13, Up 29.57%) It is the kind of stock he looks for.  It came out of the recession better than it went into it.  They raised their dividend and bought back so many shares it costs them less now to pay the larger dividend than before.  There is pent up demand in home renovation.


Price: $100.670
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY H&R Real Estate Inv Trust
HR.UN-T
David Burrows

REITs.  A lot of people are worried about rising interest rates, but he thinks it is not likely to happen any time soon.  This sector looks interesting.  This has been an underperformer.  Prefers GRT.UN-T.


Price: $21.470
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 BUY LinkedIn Corporation
LNKD-N
David Burrows

It is aimed at a business consumer and users are prepared to pay.  Great revenue and earnings growth.  Held up well during the decline.  It is an expensive stock, but it is one of those companies that is winning a growing share of the wallet.


Price: $231.840
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-12-18 BUY LuLulemon Athletica (US)
LULU-Q
David Burrows

The US market is doing quite well.  The retail sector in the last 3 months was one of the best.  They are going through a little bit of a re-birth and restructuring.  It is performing the way it should.  It has a tail wind.


Price: $53.150
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 PAST TOP PICK LyondellBasell Industries
LYB-N
David Burrows

(Top Pick Nov. 12/13, Up 4.85%) The chemicals pulled back through this fall and he got out.  Thinks natural gas prices will stay low.


Price: $79.260
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-12-18 TOP PICK Morgan Stanley
MS-N
David Burrows

There was a lot of regulation coming out of the recession.  MS-N is moving rapidly towards asset management (55% of revenue).  It is a stable business where they deal with a very high end client.  Thinks their dividend could go up 100-150% over the next year.  Believes investors will be prepared to pay a higher multiple as they recognize that risk levels have come down due to new regulations.


Price: $38.100
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 SELL Methanex Corp
MX-T
David Burrows

If you are in a decent market and have stocks that are not participating, then perhaps you should move on.  They are running into operational troubles so you should move on and look at something else.  The stock looks broken.


Price: $53.430
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 BUY Open Text
OTC-T
David Burrows

The sector is in favour.  Corporations are making lots of money.  Everybody needs productivity and corporations are willing to invest in this.  Thinks it is in the right neighbourhood. 


Price: $66.090
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY RBC 1 5 Year Laddered Corporate Bond ETF
RBO-T
John DeGoey

Doesn’t like any bond ETF, because he doesn’t like bonds in this environment. This one is good, but for the past 4 or 5 months, this has been trending ever so slightly downwards, and that is what you can expect from most bond positions for the next little while. You are going to go poor slowly. He does not anticipate an interest rate hike this year, or even the year after. When that does happen, bond positions will lose even more money.


Price: $20.040
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY Sherritt International Corp.
S-T
David Burrows

They have exposure in Cuba on one side, but then they have the big mine on the other side.  He would not buy just on the change in political situation in Cuba.


Price: $2.960
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 PAST TOP PICK Vanguard FTSE Developed ex-NA ETF
VDU-T
John DeGoey

(A Top Pick Dec 31/13. Up 3.15%.) Most of this is Europe, which has had a difficult year. Most people have too much money in Canada. Going forward, he thinks Europe will do better than Canada, because of Canada’s large exposure to energy.


Price: $28.040
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 COMMENT Vanguard FTSE Cdn High Div Yd.
VDY-T
John DeGoey

Bond ETF’s? He can’t recommend any, because there is not a single one that he likes. This is because we are at an all-time low in interest rates, and he doesn’t like bond ETF’s. You might want to consider using a dividend ETF instead. It will be a little more volatile, but there is not a great deal of downside risk if you are buying now. He would recommend Vanguard FTSE Cdn High Dividend Yield  (VDY-T).


Price: $30.830
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 PAST TOP PICK Vanguard MSCI Emerg. Mkt. ETF
VEE-T
John DeGoey

(A Top Pick Dec 31/13. Up 6.58%.) It has done okay in the past little while. Emerging markets have had a bit of a tough time with a pullback in the past 4-5 months. He continues to insist that emerging markets are the most under owned asset class in Canada. This is a long-term hold.


Price: $27.560
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY Vermilion Energy Inc
VET-T
David Burrows

You are trying to pick a bottom here. but he thinks this sector will be weak for some time.  This one will not bounce back to $100.  They don’t have the same tail wind they used to have.  Take a look at some other sectors that do have a tailwind.


Price: $55.380
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 COMMENT Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate
VNQI-Q
John DeGoey

International stocks have had a bit of a bad run. This one is ex-US real estate. Has been beaten up at bit. He would not use it for more than 3%-4% of your portfolio. It’s fine and will be low cost.


Price: $54.650
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-18 TOP PICK Vanguard US Total Mkt Ind ETF
VUN-T
John DeGoey

(A Top Pick Dec 31/13. Up 22.19%.) He likes the US market probably more than any other market in the world. It gets you out of Canada. It is extremely broad with over 1000 names. There are a lot of small-cap names in it, which generally outperforms large cap stocks.


Price: $33.500
Subject: PERSONAL FINANCE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY Verizon Communications
VZ-N
David Burrows

Telecom has been acting a little better recently.  Interest rates will stay lower longer than people think.    But VZ-N is not going to be one of the winners.  Prefers T-T, which he owns.


Price: $47.050
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2014-12-18 STRONG BUY Wells Fargo
WFC-N
David Burrows

3% dividend, likely to have accelerated dividend growth going forward, strong balance sheet, and very little commercial risk. US financials are likely to have a tailwind going forward. 


Price: $55.210
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-17 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Gordon Reid

Energy. Has limited exposure with about 8% weighting to oil. The oil companies he has exposure to, although senior, have been impacted to a degree, but are going to be the long-term beneficiaries of this episode. This is a classic cycle where things are good, people become overextended, debt to cash flows get extreme, banks turn their backs on exploration companies and the larger, more stable  producers gobble them up at cheaper prices. He expects that this will happen again. Although he has an 8% exposure to oil, he also has some beneficiaries in the retail space that will benefit from this type of situation. This spurs spending at all levels of the economic strata, but it also increases confidence. That not only increases the multiplier effect of dollars being spent, but the velocity of those dollars being spent.


Price: $0.020
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-17 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Gordon Reid

Gordon Reid’s website articles. Everybody is welcome to read these articles on such things as estate taxes, T11 35 requirements if you hold foreign assets, wills and will estate allocations, market timing, simple math on bonds and how they actually work, etc. He also asks for ideas from anybody on an article and what they would like to see. You can email him at .


Price: $0.020
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-17 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Baskin

Markets. The positive showing today was a combination of things. Oil seems to have found a floor, at least for one day. The federal reserve is clearly not in any hurry to raise interest rates. The economic indicators that the Fed is looking at certainly shows there is no inflation. Headline inflation came down sharply today, by 0.3%. Even the core inflation, which strips out energy and food, was very, very reserved, so there is no reason at all to think that the Fed is going to lift interest rates, even in April. In the meantime, the US economy is picking up steam. He has been looking at things to buy, but it has been so volatile lately, he has been sitting on the sidelines and watching. By and large, every stock that he buys, pays a dividend.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-17 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Baskin

Energy. For every winner from oil, there is a loser, in Canada particularly. The redistributive effect of low gasoline prices, particularly for the working poor in the US, is bigger than any policy that the Obama administration has managed to pass in 6 years. In other words, this is putting more spendable cash in the pockets of poor to middle income families in the US, which is going to be used for consumer spending, and is not going to end up in Saudi Arabia or Venezuela or Iran. This is highly positive.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-17 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Baskin

Insurance companies or banks? Insurance companies have traditionally looked for long assets because they have long risks. Right now long bonds are a particularly unrewarding asset class and insurance companies have to find something other to do. This means they are taking more risks. Although he is starting to buy some insurance companies, they are not a substitute for the banks. They don’t have the earnings power or the multiple sources of income that the banks have.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-17 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Baskin

Preferred shares or bonds? 3 good things about preferred shares and 1 bad thing. 1.) They get the dividend tax credit, so you will pay a lower rate of tax than you’d pay on interest from bonds. 2.) The good quality preferred shares by banks or utility companies are currently paying around 3.5%-3.75% for a 5 year maturity, compared to bonds paying about 2.25%. 3.) Since 2009, virtually every preferred share issued in Canada, has been a rate reset preferred share, that will have a change in the dividend rate at the end of the first 5 years, based on an increment of whatever the Canada 5 year bond is paying at that time. The worst thing that can happen is that you have to own it for 5 years, at what might become a lower than market rate in year 3 or year 4. The bad thing about preferred shares is that they are quite illiquid. He prefers the Armageddon Prefs issued by the banks.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-17 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Baskin

Which U.S. listed bank would you prefer? He is concerned about buying European banks for 2 reasons. First of all is currency risks. The euro could easily fall further against the US dollar. Also, they have a lot of suspect sovereign and bank paper from southern Europe that is underperforming. Big US banks are in a good environment right now. He doesn’t own Citibank (C-N) or Bank of America (BAC-N), but thinks they are going to do pretty well. The 2 big investment banks, Goldman Sachs (GS-N) and J.P. Morgan (JPM-N) are also doing well. For a pure commercial bank, Wells Fargo (WFC-N) is probably the class of the field. If he were going to buy another bank, it would probably be Wells Fargo.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2014-12-17 HOLD Apple
AAPL-Q
Gordon Reid

Continues to think this is a good company. Changed considerably from when he 1st purchased 7-8 years ago. The iPhone 6 is their newest product, but there are other things coming down the pipe, including the Apple watch, which he thinks will get more attention as it is launched. Also, ApplePay, which could redefine this company in the next 3-5 years. Trades at a very reasonable multiple of about 15X earnings. Ex-cash it would be considerably less than that. Still have about $150 billion cash globally. Since Steve Jobs, their capital allocation policy has changed dramatically and now they pay a very fine dividend as well as buying back a lot of stock. They buy back about 6% of the float per year. In China now and have just scratched the surface on their deal with China Mobile.


Price: $109.410
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 TOP PICK Boeing
BA-N
Gordon Reid

Traded down a little on the oil story. This is kind of illogical. The thesis is that with lower oil prices, the drive for new fuel efficient airplanes will be lessened, which doesn’t make a lot of sense to him. It is the competitive landscape that matters. One airline against another as beneficial margins and competitive margins lead to pricing decisions. They have a $375 billion backlog, which is pretty much clear sailing through the end of the decade in terms of their delivery schedule. Thinks you could probably see a mid-teens type long-term growth. Dividend yield of 2.95%.


Price: $125.060
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 BUY Brookfield Asset Management (A)
BAM.A-T
David Baskin

Among the smartest management team out there, particularly in Canada. They have a whole variety of assets in real estate, infrastructure, railroads and energy. They also manage a lot of money in funds, in which they get paid a straight up fee plus an override on profits. As those funds build up and get to the tens of billions of dollars, that amounts to an enormous cash flow, which are not assets at risk, just free money at being very good at what they do. Should be a core holding for most Canadians.


Price: $56.250
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 PAST TOP PICK BCE Inc.
BCE-T
David Baskin

(A Top Pick Jan 9/14. Up 22.14%.) This may be the best performer of the major Canadian telcos in 2014. Benefits from being a content provider, as well as owning the tubes the signals go through. Bell Fibe has done pretty well.


Price: $52.610
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 PAST TOP PICK Progressive Waste Solutions Inc
BIN-T
David Baskin

(A Top Pick Jan 9/14. Up 36.25%.) Have a lot of operations in the US. Benefited from the weak Cdn$. There is a little bit of consolidation going on in the industry. This is the kind of a company that is a huge winner when fuel prices go down. Also, as the economy expands, there is more commercial garbage to get rid of.


Price: $34.890
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 BUY Bank of Nova Scotia
BNS-T
David Baskin

Has always liked the International exposure. Thinks that their holdings in Mexico, Colombia and Chile are very valuable, as well as their banking interests in Thailand. Pundits aren’t crazy about it right now as they feel this bank presents more risks than the other Canadian banks. He thinks it presents more growth opportunity. Inexpensive and presents a good entry point.


Price: $65.030
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 PAST TOP PICK Clean Harbors
CLH-N
Gordon Reid

(A Top Pick Jan 2/14. Down 18.89%.) A solid company, but the valuation has been depressed because of its relationship to oil and gas. This is a services company that owns Safety-Kleen, and they take care of hazardous materials for the oil/gas industry. Feels that longer-term it has an opportunity to recover, when spending recovers in the oil patch. If he feels that it will recover in a short term he will probably stay with it, but if it is going to be mired in the whole energy issue longer term, he might move on.


Price: $49.750
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 COMMENT Canadian Natural Rsrcs
CNQ-T
David Baskin

An oil sands company does not have the exploration risks that conventional explorer producers have. One of the advantages that the big oil sands companies have is that a lot of their CapX has gone into their plant. For the maturer ones, like this and Suncor (SU-T), that money has already been spent, so you don’t have to replace every well after you have completed it. This makes it easier to turn the tap on and off in terms of production, because that is mostly labour. He likes the very deep resource pool and that they are becoming more efficient producers. Thinks their breakeven point is in the $50 barrel range. He feels that oil will probably stabilize in the $60s.


Price: $34.530
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 COMMENT Canadian National R.R.
CNR-T
David Baskin

The most efficient railroad in North America. Its operating margins are terrific. Balance sheet is pretty good. Funds from operations are pretty good. There is lots of room to increase the dividend. Although they have weather exposure in Canada and some exposure to the oil industry, they have a well diversified load in excess of 30,000 km of track. The company is fabulous; however, the stock is really expensive. If you could buy this at $60, it would be a terrific buy. He is not sure if it is ever going to go back to $60. He prefers CSX (CSX-N), a high-quality US carrier and trading at a much lower price earnings multiple, and with a higher dividend it is a better buy.


Price: $78.160
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-12-17 COMMENT Ensco PLC
ESV-N
Gordon Reid

Has fallen quite a bit. Longer-term, this as an opportunity to not only recover, but to move up in terms of price. They are a deepwater driller. They have contracted 63% of their deepwater rigs for the next 18 months. The risk is going to be the day rates going forward. If oil stays down at these levels, there is no question that day rates will suffer. 10.3% dividend is high. They probably have the financial capability to pay it, but in this type of environment, a lot of companies would view it as quite responsible to draw back and to cut the dividend somewhat, in order to husband the cash. Feels this stock is okay.


Price: $28.430
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 COMMENT General Electric
GE-N
Gordon Reid

Dividend is definitely safe. They pride themselves on stability and long-term benefits to shareholders and shareholder value. Have some exposure to Russia, but not extreme and isn’t something that should be factored in. Their oil exposure is something you have to take into account. Have been acquirers of oil properties and oil expertiseover the last several years. In divesting other areas of their business, oil has taken on a larger percentage of their business.


Price: $24.660
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 SELL Gilead Sciences Inc.
GILD-Q
Gordon Reid

He has concerns. This company is often recommended, but he feels the stock price has been largely built on Solvaldi, a hepatitis C drug, which has been incredibly successful, but they have built their financial fortune on the fact that they sell it for $1000 a day in the US. There are competing products coming to market. One is through AbbVie (ABBV-N) and one through Merck (MRK-N). He fears the competitive landscape will change and, although Solvaldi will continue to be an effective drug, it will not get anywhere near the $1000 a day, which will be a big financial headache for the company. If you own, he would recommend that you take profits.


Price: $102.400
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-12-17 BUY Google
GOOGL-Q
Gordon Reid

Hasn’t really done very much over the last year. Expectations on the street were fairly high. This company doesn’t give guidance. They are quite independent that way. However, he likes that because he sees a lot of companies giving guidance. If they miss by just a hair, the street reacts very violently; this encourages people to micromanage over short periods. These are long-term assets and have to be viewed that way. Thinks that in 2015 this company is going to do good things. Earnings are probably going to rise in the mid to high 20%s, revenues probably in the 18% range. Trading at less than 20X earnings.


Price: $506.450
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 TOP PICK Google
GOOGL-Q
David Baskin

A very impressive company. Preeminent in search and preeminent software for mobile devices with their android software. They are the “go to” for advertisers who want to get their message out on any kind of computing device, including mobile devices. You also get what he calls lottery tickets, with the driverless car or whatever they might be developing. This company has almost $100 per share in cash and trading at probably 19X or so 2015 earnings. If you take away the cash, it is trading more like 15X or 16X. Doesn’t pay a dividend but are sitting on $62 billion, which will be burning a hole in their pocket. Feels they are either going to start to pay a dividend or are going to start to buy back shares.


Price: $506.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 PAST TOP PICK Goldman Sachs
GS-N
Gordon Reid

(A Top Pick Jan 2/14. Up 6.07%.) Trading right around Book, so it is slowly coming back. Have moved their ROE from mid-single digits into low double digits, so he thinks they have opportunity for expansion of their multiple. It also has its opportunity for organic growth.


Price: $185.030
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 TOP PICK Hexcel Corp
HXL-N
Gordon Reid

A derivative play and they are in the structural materials business. They do the carbon fibre material, and two thirds of their business is with Boeing and Airbus. Between the 2 they have over $1 trillion of airplanes that have been ordered and on the block to be assembled. This company makes about $5 million an airplane, and there are thousands and thousands of them that will be produced over the next decade. Trading at a very reasonable multiple and has a good growth rate of around 15% per year. A fine cash flow company with a cash flow of about 7.5% yield.


Price: $39.910
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 COMMENT IBM
IBM-N
Gordon Reid

Gained a tremendous amount of benefit from a long 4-5 years of cost-cutting, and it was well orchestrated. They clearly articulated how they were going to cut costs to the benefit of the bottom line, and they did that. He has been very cautious on this for a number of years because you can only cut costs so much, before you start to cut to the bone and affect your ability to produce revenue. Revenue has really only grown low single digits for a very long time. The market was paying a multiple much higher than that for growth that had much more sustainability.


Price: $151.930
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2014-12-17 DON'T BUY IGM Financial Inc.
IGM-T
David Baskin

The mutual fund industry is under pressure and is going to remain under pressure. There are new disclosure requirements coming out in July and he doesn’t know how that will impact it. Exchange traded funds are taking a bite. At the same time, this company has benefited from the stock market upsurge and it is a pretty good yielder. This is not an industry that he would like to be in right now.


Price: $44.420
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-12-17 DON'T BUY Johnson & Johnson
JNJ-N
Gordon Reid

Made up of 3 major components, the consumer division, the medical device division and pharmaceutical. Trading at about 18X earnings right now, and 2 of the divisions, consumer side and diagnostics, are not doing that well. The pharmaceutical side is the only one that is really doing well. A little too expensive for him. You have to be very pointed in how you buy these companies. Although health companies are good companies, they have outgrown their earnings in terms of valuations. A lot of that was in search of yield.


Price: $104.070
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-12-17 COMMENT Loblaw Companies Ltd
L-T
David Baskin

Canadian grocery segment is a pretty competitive area. It is a pennies and nickels business. He has always been concerned about the execution risks. They had a famously horrible time reorganizing their distribution warehousing and logistics and had stockouts in stores for years. They may have that under control now. Given that the stock has had a run up, he doesn’t feel compelled to own it.


Price: $60.080
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-12-17 TOP PICK Lear Corp.
LEA-N
Gordon Reid

Primarily automotive seating or interior work. Basically provides to all the major producers around the world. The run rate in North America is around 17 million units. Over 20 million units in Europe and over 21 million in Asia. Trading at a very modest multiple of around 10X earnings and has good growth ahead of it. Dividend yield of 0.87%.


Price: $0.480
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2014-12-17 COMMENT LyondellBasell Industries
LYB-N
Gordon Reid

Stock has fallen precipitously. US producers have lost their competitive advantage to Europeans, because ethylene prices have fallen much faster in Europe than in the US. This has created a disadvantage to American producers. However, that can be built back very quickly. These things are very fluid and it depends on the movement and relationship between WTI and Brent, the crack spreads, etc. There is an opportunity here, but remember that it is all based on what your view is on energy prices.


Price: $75.600
Subject: US EQUITIES
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2014-12-17 DON'T BUY Manitoba Telecom Services
MBT-T
David Baskin

Everybody thought this was going to be a takeover target and there was going to be a huge amount of value released. That turned out not to be the case. He would go with the big ones rather than this one. The breakup value might be $40, but it is not going to be broken up.


Price: $27.160
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
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