Educational Segment | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Educational Segment

Date Expert Opinion Subject
2017-03-27 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  It is the 10th year anniversary of the show.  He often gets the comment that he is always bearish.  But he thinks he is optimistic.  He looks at the risk side before the returns side of investing.  Beta is the sensitivity to the market risk.  When he is considering buying anything he thinks about the risk index.  ZEB-T graph compared to the world index looked at the weekly return and then he finds the trend.  The slope of .65 tells him the sensitivity to the world index.  At this level about 50% is related to sector risk.  He decides how much of the decision relates to the world, or to sector or to the specific stock.  XEG-T is the Canadian energy sector, compared to the world it is more sloped, meaning it is more risky.  He needs to weigh the macro factors more in this case.  SU-T has a lower correlation to the energy sector because there is less risk and that is because of their refining business.  Energy is starting to look interesting now.

2017-03-20 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment: Long-Term Investing. This is on geopolitical and global macro, because a lot of global hedge funds macro views and look for themes in markets. This week, Canada has their budget. Global investors look at things like this and look for what is diverging and what is different, and is it good or bad compared to others. The US is cutting taxes, both corporate and personal, while Canada is raising taxes. Global money follows the flow of funds. Canada has net outflows on capital account, net outflows on current account, so we run trade deficits. There is less money coming into Canada so the global investors see that Canada is vulnerable and if they Short Canada as well as the currency, will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Investing in Canada has a lot to do with oil, and as oil goes, so goes the TSX.

If the budget is as bad as he thinks it is going to be, in terms of taxing capital and savings, you use inverse ETF’s. HBP 60 Inverse ETF (HIX-T) is an inverse play on the TSX 60. While Canada is somewhat cheap this year, it is only going to grow at 1.5% a year over the next 5 years, and only because they are borrowing money.

2017-03-13 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment: Market Drawdowns. What he calls “market noise” is a 5% correction or less. He looked at the peaks and the lowest lows in a 4-year business cycle since 1920. Looking at the drawdowns over the years, you can see the great depression, where 86% was the drawdown in US large caps. We’ve had several in the 50% range. However, the average surprisingly was 13.4%, and the average was only 10 months long. You tend to get a 5%-13% correction at least once a year, so it is pretty normal to get volatility in the markets. Drawing down a little further, he has a one-year version, which shows that we get more frequent declines. The interesting thing is, if we are down 13.4% from the previous peak, and we look out one year knowing that the bear decline is about 10 months, this is the time to start investing, to get aggressive once the markets are down. Your forward returns go up exponentially from a low point, compared to putting money to work at a high point. We are probably due for a downturn that is going to be about 24% at some point in the next year or 2, so he is playing defence because of that. Once we are down 13.4%, he’ll be thinking about buying.

2017-03-06 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Long Term Investor Psychology.  Per unit of gain in a portfolio, the psychological value diminishes as you get more.  The more money you start to lose, the more you increase your unhappiness per unit of loss.  When we get complacent after a period of gains, this is our biggest point of risk. 

2017-02-27 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Diverging tax policy in the US and Canada and how to take advantage of it.  Trump is addressing a joint session of congress tomorrow night.  Trump is going to talk about tax, including border tax.  They may not have agreement about tax reform until Q4 this year or even early 2018.  They want the tax reforms to be revenue neutral.  He is far more bullish in his outlook for the US than Canada.  The Canadian dollar could get weaker.  PSU-T is a high interest savings account, but you would also make money on the drop of the CAD$ relative to the US$.  For more aggressive types you could play it with small caps in the US and an inverse position in Canada.  There is volatility ahead with ambitious estimates for earnings growth possibly not happening.

2017-02-13 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Using Stops. The value approach looks for a range of support and how you buy into it.  Anchoring is a behaviour where you want to try to get your money back.  That is the wrong way to think about it.  You should think about where you should put the money in a losing stock.  Get out of a position if it is not working.  You should have a plan on when to get out.

2017-02-06 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Measuring Risk and Reward.  Within 20 years the vast majority of money in the world will be run by computers.  The traditional portfolio manager will be gone.  E.g. SU-T, 25% of the sector, a big player.  Going back 10 years it has made nobody any money for 10 years.  It is up less than the dividend.  Buy it when it is cheap relative to the benchmark and the markets.  Figure out how much you need in your portfolio.  The price of oil is the most important factor in the stock price.  Looking at the 5 year chart it is incredibly overvalued.

2017-01-30 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Reducing portfolio risk.  The trend between actively managed mutual funds compared to what capital is going into ETFs show money is moving that way.  You can do asset allocation with ETFs and that is by far the most important consideration.  The bigger companies dominate the NASDAQ.  Three sectors make up half the index.  It is very concentrated and heavily weighted into a few stocks.  All smart factor ETFs beat the index.  They all have different volatilities.  You should use all of the indexing strategies in your portfolio. 

2017-01-23 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Stop Losses.  Using stops in portfolios is a certain kind of style for people who do not understand diversification and are pure momentum players.  It is fine.  But the vast majority of guests on BNN are portfolio managers and have a long term horizon.  Being stopped out can be silly in that case.  He is going to do a series on them in his educational segment in the future. 

2017-01-23 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Research affiliates.  He showed a graphic depicting smart factors that look at momentum, volatility, liquidity, profitability, etc.  If you calculate excess returns, on average over history about 40 years you average about 2.4% in excess return.  The average volatility is mostly less than the index.  A second graphic looked at cross correlation of factor returns.  If you put two together in a portfolio you get diversification. 

2017-01-16 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Smart Beta ETFs.  Sustainable yield.  High dividend stocks can’t usually sustain the high dividends.  Sphere’s strategy aims to offer sustainable dividends.  You have to eliminate stocks from an ETF that can’t sustain high dividends.  They have a screen for these companies.  You lose a little yield, but greatly reduce volatility.  SHC-T is a Canadian sustainable high yield ETF.  They have US, Europe, Asian etc as well.  It is not always about the MERs. 

2017-01-09 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  How to play the market if you are risk adverse in 2017.  Are Trump policies coming in or not?  Over the last 10 years the marginal tax rate for corporations has come down from 50% in 1955 to 35% recently.  Analysts expect 22% earnings growth from the S&P.  The PE of the S&P is 21 times.  It is a 23% world GDP economy.  The banks have been the big leader since the election.  It’s going to take a lot of interest rate hike to get the banks back to where they should be with interest rate spreads.  There is a new president, first term, new party.  The average pattern has half a percent gain.  We have already exceeded that.  The inauguration is pretty much the high point for the year.  Get into options late in the market cycle. 

2016-12-19 Don Vialoux

Educational Segment.  When Stocks are Overbought or Oversold.  Look at the percentage of stocks above and below their 50 day moving average.  Below 20% (30% in Canada) is a buying opportunity and above 80% is a selling opportunity.  These give you signs of the market preparing to sell off or to go up after buying.  He suggests you hold off until inauguration day and then you have a good opportunity to take money off the table.

2016-12-12 Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Educational Segment.  How to Use Stop Losses.  It is part of risk management.  Look at your position sizing.  Do you have too much in one stock because it has done so well.  Knowing when to sell is a hard thing.  Look at the beta of your portfolio.  To exit, you could use a volatility stop (VSTOP – Google it).  ‘VSTOP’ is a calculated stop loss point that incorporates the volatility in the stock.  Look at moving averages.  You might sell if it breaks the 10 day.

2016-12-05 Don Vialoux

Educational Segment.  Why the TSX outperforms in the early part of the year.  The Canadian market outperforms the US from December to the end of February.  It has to do with commodity prices, which move higher.  Crude oil is at the end of its seasonal weakness after which it moves higher.  Silver moves higher from December into March.  Copper moves higher from now until April.  Gasoline goes up from now until the beginning of March. 

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