| Expert | Implied Signal | Company | Symbol | Price | Opinion | Date Entered |
|---|
| Derek Webb | TOP PICK | Agrium | AGU-T | 89.560 | A whole bunch of urea plants were knocked out of service because of the earthquake in China. Food is very, very tight in the world. He expects urea prices to accelerate. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | HOLD | Arc Energy Trust Units | AET.UN-T | 30.700 | (Market Call Minute.) Hold at this point in time. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY | Baytex Energy Trust | BTE.UN-T | 29.040 | Thinks it will benefit a lot from the very small differentials in heavy oil. Relatively low debt. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY | Calfrac Well Services Ltd | CFW-T | 26.820 | Numbers for the first quarter were not good but would hope the numbers over the remaining year would be good. | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | DON'T BUY | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 41.590 | Uranium prices have been coming down for the last year in spite of the stronger oil prices. At some time this will be a great buy but he doesn’t know when this is going to happen. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 101.860 | Had a tough time in not picking this as one of his Top Picks. Have the Horizon oil sands project coming on in the 3rd quarter of this year and should be 110,000 barrels a day growing to 250,000 and up to 500,000. Very profitable at current oil prices. One of the best management teams. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY on WEAKNESS | Connacher Oil and Gas | CLL-T | 4.700 | Heavy oil. Refining side is a relatively small part of their business. Most of its drive is from the oil sands side on their Seal area. Investors are expecting very quick production growth giving good cash flow. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | Comment | Crescent Point Energy Trust | CPG.UN-T | 36.650 | Recently announced results and were on the mark. Has been a very steady increasing performer. About 80% plus oil. 80% of their lands are in Saskatchewan, which is promised not to change the royalty regime. Should continue to do very well. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY on WEAKNESS | Duvernay Oil Corp | DDV-T | 56.800 | One of the stars of the oil patch. Has had a great run. Expensive. Well managed. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | PAST TOP PICK | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 94.200 | (A Top Pick May 9/07. Up 50%.) Splitting of the company will give investors a clearer picture of what they are buying. Sum of the parts will be worth more than the whole. Pretty expensive now and would Buy on weakness. Would prefer the Gasco versus the Oilco. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | Comment | Enerplus Resources Fund | ERF.UN-T | 48.500 | Just acquired Focus Energy Trust, a gas driven trust. Has exposure to the oil sands, which is good. Also has exposure to the Bakken area in Saskatchewan. Feels distributional is safe at the moment. There are others he prefers better. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY on WEAKNESS | Iteration Energy | ITX-T | 7.520 | A lot of the high profile intermediates have gone up a great deal. Would hold off on buying them now. A great performer with about 65% natural gas. Recently merged with Cyries Energy, which was a very good deal for them. Excellent management team. Represents good value. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY on WEAKNESS | Opti Canada Inc. | OPC-T | 22.860 | In situ oil sands producer. Operates SAG-D and also has a upgrading capacity that it is building with it. Expected to be on production very shortly. Has some unique technology. Rather than purchasing gas to make steam, it will use waste products out of their upgrading facility. Very crude oil price driven. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | Comment | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 51.940 | Would probably put money in Encana (ECA-T), Talisman (TLM-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) first. Have a lot of stuff going for them. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | DON'T BUY | Imperial Oil | IMO-T | 56.680 | Into a very controversial environmental issue. Had 2 setbacks this week. Delay in the Mackenzie Valley pipeline and this will be a lot longer to ever get done. Also denied a permit from the fisheries Department for water, which will delay their Kearl project. Not a favourite. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | HOLD | Interoil | IOL-T | 28.870 | Had a gas discovery and is going through refinancing. Some outstanding credit issues are looking much better now. Needs a bunch of money to develop an LNG project in Papua New Guinea. Long-term project. | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | TOP SHORT | Loblaws | L-T | 33.340 | A lot of the consumer names have recently rallied. He still sees the numbers going down in almost all the financials and all the consumer stocks. The numbers just keep getting worse for this company. Also, when input prices start going up, they are going to skyrocket and that will squeeze the margins. (The average investor should not use shorts.) | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | DON'T BUY | Norbord Inc. | NBD-T | 6.330 | Not very bullish on the whole forest products industry. There is way too much supply in the world. Demand has been flat to declining. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 94.000 | (Market Call Minute.) Great gas production coming on in India and Bangladesh. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | PAST TOP PICK | Oilexco Inc | OIL-T | 16.000 | (A Top Pick May 9/07. Up 72%.) Great number of drilling prospects in front of them. Could back off which would be the time to buy. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | HOLD | Paramount Resources | POU-T | 16.620 | 100% gas producer. Gas prices have moved from $8 to the $11 range, which is not a lot. This is why it has not been a favourite with the analysts. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY | Pason Systems Inc. | PSI-T | 16.750 | Directional driller. With higher gas prices, there will be an increase in drilling. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | Comment | Penn West Energy Trust | PWT.UN-T | 33.690 | Undervalued relative to its peers. Hasn’t been cited as one of the top performing trusts by many of the analysts. Has a lot of gas, which will do well down the road. Consolidating with a number of mergers. Produces almost 192,000 barrels a day. Should do well on taking advantage of the current gas prices. | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | BUY | Petrobank Energy and Resources | PBG-T | 55.460 | One of the few who stocks that hasn’t taken out its old high. Numbers are accelerating in this name like everything else. Loves the name. | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | BUY | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 207.290 | Very bullish the whole agricultural complex because of rising demand from India, China and other parts of the world. Actual supply of grains stored all over the world is at the lowest it’s ever been. Has had a nice correction. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | TOP PICK | Fairborne Energy Ltd. | FEL-T | 10.530 | Roughly 77% gas. Produces about 13.5 thousand barrels a day. Good management. Has started to sell its sulphur, which has brought in more revenue for them. Has one well that is 15% of its revenue but management is managing that. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY on WEAKNESS | ProEx Energy Ltd. | PXE-T | 22.250 | Good management team. British Columbia driven so doesn’t have the Alberta tax problem as much. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY | Phoenix Technology Income Fund | PHX.UN-T | 15.300 | Because of higher gas prices, he is expecting an increase in the number of wells drilled, which will increase profitability. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | PAST TOP PICK | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 67.530 | (A Top Pick May 9/07. Up 41%.) Wonderful exposure to the oil sands. Buy on weakness. Consider taking some profits. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | TOP PICK | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 23.940 | Hasn’t gone up as much as some of the other large producers. Represents good value. Will be doing some things to try and enhance its value. A lot of diversified areas geographically. | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | HOLD | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 23.940 | Has never understood why this name always falls between the cracks. Maybe it’s because globally people just don’t know the name. Very cheap. Longer term you’re going to do fine. He is very bullish on oil. May be ahead of itself right now. He is waiting for a pullback of maybe 5%-10%. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | DON'T BUY | Tesoro Petroleum Corp | TSO-N | 24.990 | The refining business has had a real tough time recently, mainly because of higher costs. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 38.560 | (Market Call Minute.) A nice dividend and a nice steady performer. If you like something conservative, this is a good place to put your money. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY | Trican Well Service Ltd. | TCW-T | 22.050 | Numbers for the first quarter were not good but would hope the numbers over the remaining year would be good. | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | BUY | Grande Cache Coal Corp. | GCE-T | 6.910 | Coal tends to rise with energy prices. Metallurgical coal is going up because steel prices have been skyrocketing. | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Gold: - Although gold has been going down, he expects it to be going a lot higher. The macro commodity trade is still on, seasonally this is a time when gold does poorly. Almost all stocks are down. This is a great time to be buying. Sitting almost right on its 200-day moving average and getting ready to go higher. When they move, they will move very quickly. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | SELL | Oilsands Quest Inc. | BQI-A | 4.750 | (Market Call Minute.) In the oil sands and doesn’t have as good leases as some of the others. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | DON'T BUY | Pengrowth Energy Trust | PGF.UN-T | 20.750 | This was the trust that had a good start early on and was able to acquire some very good assets. More recently they have had some difficulty in maintaining their production. Had a policy of paying out more than they earned, which required more borrowing or underwriting. Prefers others. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY on WEAKNESS | Bronco Energy | BCF-T | 19.350 | (Market Call Minute.) Heavy oil and should be producing very shortly. Production should grow very rapidly. | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | Comment | Timminco Ltd. | TIM-T | 28.500 | For all practical purposes, he feels their process is real and their earnings are accelerating. He just sold his stock because it has reached its old high. When it goes down again, it can be repurchased. | 2008-05-16 |
| Derek Webb | TOP PICK | HBP Global Gold Bull E.T.F. | HGU-T | 24.740 | Gold stocks tend to trade more on the commodity and less on earnings. Right now the commodity is at the bottom end of its channel. You might as well buy an index; you don’t need to buy a name. On this one you get 2 times what the large-cap gold stocks do. If they go up 10%, you make 20%. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | TOP PICK | Profound Energy Inc. | PFX-T | 4.250 | Produces roughly 3400 barrels a day, about 70% gas. Good management. | 2008-05-16 |
| Glenn MacNeill | BUY on WEAKNESS | Breaker Energy Ltd. | WAV.A-T | 11.280 | One of his favourites. Has done very well recently. Has created a lot of value. Will continue to do quite well. | 2008-05-16 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 36.710 | Great dividend yield. Pretty compelling value on a 2-year view. They avoided the whole subprime mass until they bought Countrywide Financial.7% yield. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | Comment | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 39.050 | The challenge with a big gold producers is how do they go out and replace their production. His preference would be Jaguar Mining (JAG-T). | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Duvernay Oil Corp | DDV-T | 56.400 | World-class producer and world-class assets. Good operations. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | PAST TOP PICK | General Electric | GE-N | 32.370 | Has been going through a massive transformation for many years. Great infrastructure play. Great financial services business. Have increased earnings very smartly. Good dividend yield. Trading at about 12X earnings, which is less than the market multiple. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | Comment | Home Depot | HD-N | 29.530 | (Market Call Minute.) Prefers Rona (RON-T). | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | TOP PICK | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 49.620 | 3.5% dividend. Believes long-term in the energy story. Good fundamentals. Just did a deal with BP giving them access to refineries. Also, BP agreed to fund a lot of the cash flow expansion of their Tucker and Sunrise projects. Very strong balance sheet. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | TOP PICK | Major Drilling Group International Inc | MDI-T | 56.130 | If you are skittish about commodity prices or the risks to mining, this is a way of participating in the resource boom. 2nd biggest contract driller in the mining business in the world. Over 500 rigs in 20 countries. Specializes in harder more challenging drilling where the margins are better. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | TOP PICK | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 39.220 | Disappointed in their earnings and the stock has been under pressure. Added about $500 million new life insurance business. Growth profile in Asia grew about 22% last quarter. Trades at about 11X earnings. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Nexen Inc | NXY-T | 38.790 | A very interesting play. Have massive resources. Very well positioned for growth. Could be a takeover target. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | Comment | Birchcliff Energy Ltd. | BIR-T | 12.660 | Has had a lot of interest attached to it because of Mr. Shulick just acquired nearly 20% and his last major win was taken over by Shell Canada. Production is growing very rapidly. Trading at a very substantial premium. Has a lot of land but they have to drill very fast to justify the premium. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Nova Chemicals Corp. | NCX-T | 28.700 | (Market Call Minute.) Likes the story very much. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | TOP PICK | Nuvista Energy Ltd | NVA-T | 18.920 | Gas oriented. Less well known. Management has had a fantastic track record over the past 5 years. Acquired Ryder Resources, a brilliantly timed acquisition at very attractive purchase metrics. Well balanced between deep gas and shallow gas and heavy oil prospects. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | Comment | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 55.950 | Seems to be the perennial value story in the oil patch. Good suite of assets but in many respects not that exciting in doing anything earth shattering. Cheap and probably has room to grow but not his favourite. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | HOLD | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 20.080 | 6.5% dividend yield. Cash flows are very strong. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | Comment | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 204.500 | Potash prices are very strong and firm and will likely stay that way for a couple of years. There are very few major producers that can supply potash to the needed markets. He would limit this stock to 3% or 4% of your portfolio. In the longer term, there could be more competition. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Power Corp | POW-T | 34.060 | Expects money will flow into this one. Good dividend yield and great exposure to Asia and China. Very strong balance sheet. Trading at age 17% discount to its NAV. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | Comment | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 140.990 | Volatile stock. Keep your weight at about 4% or 5% of your portfolio. Has a lot of wind at its back right now with new models coming out. Try to buy it 10% cheaper but that gives you a risk of not getting it. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | BUY | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 140.990 | As a short-term trade, it is probably fairly rich here. On a longer-term view of a year and a half and beyond you could Buy it here. One of the most profitable and highest growth stocks in their space. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | PAST TOP PICK | Rona Inc | RON-T | 13.090 | (A Top Pick July 31/07. Down 42%.) Still likes. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | PAST TOP PICK | Royal Bank | RY-T | 50.630 | (A Top Pick July 31/07. Down 5%.) Still buying. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | BUY | Royal Bank | RY-T | 50.630 | The strength in this bank is the tremendous domestic franchise. Their capital markets position is pre-eminent. Didn’t get into major trouble on this last cycle. Well managed. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | TOP PICK | Stantec Inc | STN-T | 29.780 | Has achieved something like 20% annualized growth since its IPO in 1994. Management is talking very conservatively and one of their major practices is in residential and non-residential construction and this has hit the stock. The environmental and infrastructure sides of the business are booming. Cheap. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY on WEAKNESS | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 64.880 | (Market Call Minute.) Loves the story. Has had a big run so be careful about the price you pay. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | Comment | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 48.200 | (Market Call Minute.) Prefers Manufactures Life (MFC-T) | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 50.210 | There are a lot of questions out there with regards to supply of different materials in China because of the earthquake. This company gives you good exposure to the commodity play. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | HOLD | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 50.210 | Have tremendous high-quality asset base. He has trimmed his holdings a little bit. Pretty richly valued. Wouldn’t be surprised if earnings estimates were revised up, but a lot of this is built in. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 68.510 | Has performed better than most banks. Just acquired another US bank. Good dividend. Good holding for the longer-term view. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | TOP PICK | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 38.460 | (A Top Pick July 31/07. Up 2%.) Yields 3.75%. Likes its exposure to Ontario’s energy market and is expanding into the US. Trading at a substantial discount. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | UTS Energy | UTS-T | 5.790 | (Market Call Minute.) Amazing asset. Very attractive takeover target for the Sovereign Wealth Fund or something. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | Comment | Westjet Airlines | WJA-T | 16.010 | Have a very efficient fleet. They may slow the scale of their purchases down. Expect they will get connections with international carriers, which will help them. Management executes brilliantly. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Yellow Pages Income Fund | YLO.UN-T | 10.680 | Represents a pretty compelling valuation. Hedge funds were very aggressively shorting this name because of directory experiences in the US. Different story. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Canadian Financials: - Market has slowly taken confidence from all the rig fencing of the credit crisis. Royal Bank’s of of write-downs was less than expected. Market is starting to climb the wall of worry. Perhaps the money and resources will start rolling back into this sector. The road to recovery will be bumpy, but wouldn’t be afraid to Buy with a longer-term perspective. | 2008-05-15 |
| Steve MacInnes | BUY | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A) | CTC.A-T | 60.990 | A little bit in the doghouse. Had a lacklustre quarter recently. A great brand and he likes the business model. Has bottomed here and is very good value. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Bronco Energy | BCF-T | 19.100 | In production. Will be producing 4000-6000 barrels of oil a day by the end of June. Right next door to Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) most profitable, low-cost producing field. This company will have a lot of cash flow in the very near future. | 2008-05-15 |
| John O'Connell | BUY | Jaguar Mining Inc. | JAG-T | 10.450 | This would be his preference in the gold sector. Very rapid growing production profile. Plan to be an 800,000 producer in a couple of years. Currently producing 200,000. | 2008-05-15 |
| Gordon Reid | BUY | Apple | AAPL-Q | 186.260 | Very volatile stock. Growing revenues at 30% to 35% year-over-year. Probably the best branding company in the world. At current price they are trading at 28X fiscal 09 earnings. If you buy today, you can expect that the stock price over time will mirror the organic growth of the earnings. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY on WEAKNESS | Arc Energy Trust Units | AET.UN-T | 29.120 | 50/50 oil and natural gas. Had a dramatic run-up and at these levels would be a Hold but a Buy on a pullback. Some excellent natural gas plays in the Montne play in northeast B.C. Also have an opportunity for a CO2 flood in their Alberta fields. Great management and very strong Q1 results. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 36.800 | Banking industry has been in an amazing turmoil. There is a pending purchase of Countrywide (CFC-N) and there is talk that it might be revalued. Think they will do well longer-term. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY on WEAKNESS | Baytex Energy Trust | BTE.UN-T | 28.160 | More exposed to heavy oil. Recent results were very strong. About a 48% payout ratio. Sees a dramatic narrowing of the spreads between heavy and light oil. Hedged some of this with a refinery in the US but a well manage company. Have a lot of land for drilling. At these levels it's a Hold. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | Comment | Liquor Stores Income Fund | LIQ.UN-T | 17.720 | A lot of investors went into this one for defensive reasons earlier this year, which pushed the value up. Bought their competition Liquor Barn whose margins were not as high. Would be concerned about them making any acquisitions in the US. Good management. Might consider buying if there is improvement in numbers. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | TOP PICK | Boeing | BA-N | 85.690 | Dreamliner is behind schedule but it is coming. There is going to be a fantastic new revenue cycle for the company, probably out to 2012, 2013. Biggest backlog for any aircraft in history. Margins are up which means they are going to have a great revenue cycle. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY | Bonavista Energy Trust | BNP.UN-T | 33.290 | 67% focused on natural gas. Have recently been buying land in Saskatchewan that is more oil focused. Very solid management and they spend money very wisely. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY | Canadian Oil Sands Trust | COS.UN-T | 49.840 | (Market Call Minute.) Has about 37% interest in the Syncrude project. | 2008-05-14 |
| Jonathan Baird | WEAK BUY | CGX Energy Inc. | OYL-X | 2.850 | Prospecting for offshore oil in Guiana. There was a border dispute between Guiana and Suriname that affected their holdings. Settled favourably and stock shot up but has since pulled back. Holdings are deemed to be highly prospective with a potential for billions of barrels of oil eventually. Still early days. Doesn't expect much production before 2012. Very attractive risk/reward holding. | 2008-05-14 |
| Jonathan Baird | BUY | Connacher Oil and Gas | CLL-T | 4.560 | Heavy oil out west. Just moving into production with their first project. Well run. Heavy oil projects are coming in on time and on budget. Reasonably priced at a bit of a discount to its NAV. If oil prices continue high, NAV’s for heavy oil producers will move up fairly dramatically in the next few years. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | SELL | Connors Bros. Income Fund | CBF.UN-T | 7.540 | (Market Call Minute.) Have had difficulty with making acquisitions in the US outside of their sardine business. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY | Crescent Point Energy Trust | CPG.UN-T | 34.750 | (Market Call Minute.) Great oil/gas trust with great exposure to oil in Saskatchewan. | 2008-05-14 |
| Jonathan Baird | BUY | Eastmain Resources Inc | ER-T | 1.500 | Gold exploration in the James Bay area of Quebec. Will have a very active drill program in 2008. Price will be driven on news. Had some interesting early drill results. Real future will be determined on its drill results this year, which are going to be substantial. Deserves a small space in the portfolio for its speculative appeal. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY | Enerplus Resources Fund | ERF.UN-T | 47.280 | (Market Call Minute.) Good exposure to natural gas and with their purchase of Focus its a Buy. | 2008-05-14 |
| Jonathan Baird | BUY | Iteration Energy | ITX-T | 7.550 | An attractive company. More gas oriented. Well run. Over a 2 - 3 year time horizon it will do quite well. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | DON'T BUY | Hewlett-Packard Co | HPQ-N | 45.640 | Acquiring Electronic Data Systems (EDS-N) but not sure it's a great deal for them. Services business is a lower margin business than the PC business. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | Comment | IBM | IBM-N | 127.520 | Has been very successful by sticking to its knitting and concentrating on the services business. Very profitable. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY | Inter Pipeline Fund | IPL.UN-T | 9.980 | Recently had a very good Q1 earnings and cash flow. Excellent exposure to the oil sands and their volumes through this are going to grow over time. Great infrastructure play in Canada. Yield of about 8.5%. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | HOLD | Livingston Int'l Income Fund | LIV.UN-T | 15.130 | Have about 30% market share of custom brokerage and logistics in Canada. Recent quarter was better than expected. Doing quite well on car importation in Canada. During an economic downturn, their volumes and cash flow will suffer. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | DON'T BUY | Brick Group Income Fund | BRK.UN-T | 9.070 | Furniture retailer across Canada. Good results from western Canada where the economy is quite strong. A lot of their revenues come from extended warranties. A little concerned about the consumer being weak in most of Canada. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | DON'T BUY | Microsoft | MSFT-Q | 29.930 | Lots of good choices in the US technology space. Company is obviously a huge successful one, a cash cow bringing in a tremendous amount of cash each year, but it is coming off a product that is becoming older and older technology. Desperately trying to move into the Internet age. Better opportunities such as Google (GOOG-Q), Cisco (CSCO-Q), Oracle (ORCL-Q) or Apple (AAPL-Q). | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | Comment | NAL Oil & Gas Trust | NAE.UN-T | 15.450 | A pretty good oil/gas trust. In these high commodity prices, it should do well. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | DON'T BUY | Northstar Healthcare | NHC-T | 7.750 | High dividend paying corporation, not a trust. Owns ambulatory surgical centres in Texas. Recently had some disappointing results, which was reflected in the market. Thinks management has guided the market incorrectly and is now paying the price. If they improve the results, he would consider re-buying. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | DON'T BUY | Noranda Income Fund | NIF.UN-T | 8.210 | Zinc processing facility in Quebec. Not favourable on the price of zinc going forward. Distributions will depend on the cash flow they can generate. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY | Parkland Income Fund | PKI.UN-T | 11.700 | Service stations in rural western Canada. Expanded into propane, some fertilizer and industrial lubricants. Q1/08 was less than Q1/07, but the latter was a record year with very good refining margins, which they have a share of. Well run company. Low debt. Recently made an acquisition in Ontario Noko that provides fuel in rural areas outside of the GTA. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | Comment | Pembina Pipeline Income Trust | PIF.UN-T | 17.950 | A great pipeline and infrastructure play. Expect it will convert to a corporation around 2011. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | Comment | Penn West Energy Trust | PWT.UN-T | 32.480 | One of the larger oil/gas trusts. Currently producing 200,000 BOEs a day. Expect they will have to spend $1.1 billion to replace their existing production based on their current decline rate. Q1 results were pretty decent. Looking at acquisitions overseas. Would like to see the payout ratio and debt levels come down a bit. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | DON'T BUY | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 20.060 | Recently sold his holdings. A lot of their pipeline is going into generic distribution, which will take a lot of revenue off the top line. Feels the 6% dividend is probably safe. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | TOP PICK | priceline.com Inc. | PCLN-Q | 138.290 | An Internet-based travel site growing dramatically. Since 2005, revenues have more than doubled. Earnings have gone up sevenfold. Multiple is pretty much static. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | DON'T BUY | Superior Plus Income Fund | SPF.UN-T | 12.270 | Results where a bit soft in Q1. Making progress in paying down debt and lowering their payout ratio. Before buying they would have to make further progress on reducing their debt level. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | DON'T BUY | Tesoro Petroleum Corp | TSO-N | 25.000 | Refiners are probably the worst place to be in the energy space. Their cost is oil, which is expensive. Margins are being squeezed. There is so much opportunity in the energy space that it doesn't make a lot of sense to fight through the problems that the refiners have. Likes offshore drillers such as Transocean (RIG-N) or Halliburton (HAL-N) | 2008-05-14 |
| Jonathan Baird | BUY | Tusk Energy | TSK-T | 2.470 | Has done very well over the last few months. Primarily gas. All activity is in Western Canada, so no geopolitical risk. Trades at a good discount to its NAV and only about 3X next year's cash flow. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | TOP PICK | Vermilion Energy Trust | VET.UN-T | 42.120 | Canadian-based but have operations in the Netherlands, France and Australia. Q1 basic payout ratio was about 36% so there is significant room to either increase distributions or to make a large acquisition. Undervalued at about 5X cash flow. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | PAST TOP PICK | Medical Facilities Corp. | DR.UN-T | 9.650 | (A Top Pick July 4/07. Down 7%.) Some concerns in the US with a new president possibly changing policy regarding Medicare and Medicaid. Have a new hospital coming on in South Dakota. Expanded into California. Latest results were quite good. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Taxation on Trust Income in RRSP and RIFs: - There will be double taxation on trust income going into RRSPs and RIFs and no benefit of dividend tax credits. He has been trying to lobby the government and would ask anybody in this situation to contact his or her Member of Parliament to try and get this changed. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | DON'T BUY | Second Cup Royalty Income Fund | SCU.UN-T | 8.400 | Coffee and tea chain and light snacks. This space is incredibly competitive. 13% yield. Come 2011 the restaurant royalty trust will have even less tax shields than businesses with a lot of capital assets. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY on WEAKNESS | Total Energy Services Trust | TOT.UN-T | 8.700 | Energy services company. Have talking, rental equipment, and compressors. With the recovery in gas prices and their exposure to northeast B.C., he likes it a lot. Very conservative management team and they own about 25% of the company. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | PAST TOP PICK | Taylor NGL LP Fund | TAY.UN-T | 11.090 | (A Top Pick July 4/07. Up 26%.) Acquired by Altagas (ALA.UN-T). | 2008-05-14 |
| Jonathan Baird | HOLD | Equinox MineralsLtd. | EQN-T | 4.620 | Substantial company with a market cap of $2.8 billion. Active in Zambia and will actually be producing copper in the next couple of months. One of the most prolific and larger copper resources globally. Also a prospective uranium mine, which won't go into production for some years. Hit recently with government’s more restrictive tax regime. Bit of a takeover premium in the stock. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | DON'T BUY | Hardwoods Distribution Income Fund | HWD.UN-T | 4.810 | Distributor of basic hardwood products used for doors, cabinets etc. Recent results where weak. Have about $26 million in debt. Recently cut their distribution. Based on a slower US economy, he is not enthusiastic about the short-term results. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | PARTIAL SELL | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 27.940 | One of the largest oil/gas drilling and service companies in Canada. Recently had plans to expand into the US. Q1 results were OK but some people were expecting higher data rates for some of their rigs. There is usually a seasonal weakness that we are approaching and you might consider taking some profit. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | TOP PICK | K-Bro Linen Income Fund | KBL.UN-T | 12.370 | Linen services for hospitals and hotels. Toronto, Alberta and Vancouver and recently expanded into Quebec. New volume is expanding in Calgary due to new hospitals. Long-term contracts. Excellent management. | 2008-05-14 |
| Jonathan Baird | TOP PICK | Cinch Energy Corp | CNH-T | 1.660 | Gas producer in central Alberta. Very inexpensive in terms of price to cash flow at just over 3X next year's. Trading at about 65% of the NAV. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY | CI Financial Income Fund | CIX.UN-T | 22.430 | One of the largest and best run mutual fund company in Canada. Just increased their distribution by $0.01. Expect they will convert to a corporation in 2011 and continue to pay their free cash flow as a dividend. Likes the demographics of this long-term. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | SELL | Pengrowth Energy Trust | PGF.UN-T | 20.050 | (Market Call Minute.) Has struggled even in a high commodity price environment. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | BUY | InStorage REIT | IS.UN-T | 5.480 | Public storage space. Currently there is only one large player, a subsidiary of a US company. Will be spending about $5 million to re-brand their name to give them a stronger presence. Good exposure to Western Canada. Very attractive value. | 2008-05-14 |
| Jonathan Baird | TOP PICK | Alberta Clipper Energy | ACN-T | 2.850 | Alberta/B.C. based company. Hurt last year when the Alberta government imposed royalty changes on the light oil producers. Well run. Trades at a discount to NAV and about 3.5X next year's cash flow. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | PAST TOP PICK | Artis Real Estate Investment Trust | AX.UN-T | 16.850 | (A Top Pick July 4/07. Up 2%.) Great exposure to Western Canada. Made several acquisitions in the last year. Good management. Some low rents are due for renewal. Still a Buy. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | DON'T BUY | Visa Inc. | V-N | 82.230 | A processing company that gets paid on the volume of transactions. There are no credit risks. A little bit too expensive and a little bit too hot off the IPO. | 2008-05-14 |
| Michael Simpson | TOP PICK | Lassonde Industries Inc. | LAS.A-T | 43.250 | Manufacture fruit juices. Recently increased their dividend from $.50 to $.84. Recently expanded into Western Canada. Adding extra vitamins to the fruit juices. Trades at about 11X earnings and under 7X cash flow. | 2008-05-14 |
| Gordon Reid | TOP PICK | Kendle International Inc. | KNDL-Q | 37.110 | Clinical research organization that does drug trials phase 1 through 4. They manage the regulatory side of the trial. Has been a very successful company. Stumbled a little bit on one-time costs and is trading below its peer group and its own historical multiples. | 2008-05-14 |
| David Baskin | SELL | Amazon.com | AMZN-Q | 74.560 | Have a tremendous number of categories of goods. Had a pretty good Christmas season. Stock has always traded at a high multiple. Thinks the opportunities for it to grow at the rate it did 5 years ago aren't there anymore. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | DON'T BUY | American International Group | AIG-N | 39.160 | Not sure the worst is over yet. It's an ongoing problem, not a single event. Too many unknowns. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | Comment | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 38.770 | Doesn't understand why gold drops with the US$ and he has a rule that if you don't understand, don't buy. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | TOP PICK | Baytex Energy Trust | BTE.UN-T | 27.690 | Good at keeping production flat with minimal capital spending. Production 40,000 barrels a day, predominantly oil, will cash flow about $1 billion and only need $150 million to keep production flat. Current distributions of about $225 million. More efficient for a trust to pay out more distribution than to spend on drilling. Potential distribution increase. Could do another acquisition. Also un-recognized value for their Seal property. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | BUY | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 39.100 | He is a believer that the deal will go through and will not be re-priced. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | DON'T BUY | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 73.250 | Last time they had a disaster, they bounced back and people made a lot of money and who's to say they won't do it again. Not the bank that he would choose to own because of their proven track record of making it really bad, big mistakes. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | Comment | Duvernay Oil Corp | DDV-T | 57.530 | Has had spectacular growth in production. Kept costs down. Tremendous exposure to the Montne play. Has always been expensive on a multiple basis compared to the peer group. You have to put this aside as it has maintained that premium. With the acreage they have and their success, the stock should continue to have momentum if gas prices continue to go up. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | BUY on WEAKNESS | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 90.850 | Big pop up on the announcement of splitting into oil and gas companies. Getting close to being fully valued. When it splits, which isn’t for quite some time, the gas company will fly but the oil sands will depend on the markets view at that time. There will be a better entry point in the next month or two. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | BUY | Endev Energy | ENE-T | 1.200 | Compelling valuation. NAV is easily $1.75 or even $2 if you want to plan on a bigger gas price. Have a huge land package. Could be a takeover target down the road. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | STRONG BUY | Iteration Energy | ITX-T | 7.750 | A great story that the market doesn't appreciate yet. Valuation is extremely compelling. Less than 4X cash flow multiple. Producing over 20,000 BOEs a day. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | TOP PICK | Finning Int | FTT-T | 29.600 | A large amount of their revenue comes from service maintenance and parts. In other words, they sell the equipment and then get to maintain it for the next 10 years. They make better margins on this than they do on selling the huge earthmover. Tremendous opportunity because of Winter Olympics, pipelines and mining in South America where they have the franchise. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | BUY | Opti Canada Inc. | OPC-T | 22.410 | Have been putting steam in the ground for quite some time and are starting to turn some of their injectors into producers at Long Lake. Not exposed to natural gas prices as they have technology that allows them to burn their heavy and create a synthetic gas to produce steam. Early stage production. Great long-term hold. If you are bullish on oil, a good stock to own. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | TOP PICK | H&R Real Estate Inv Trust | HR.UN-T | 20.450 | A stock that has been neglected and overlooked. The Calgary project is underway now. There is a bit of an inflation risk in that the 20-year spread between mortgages and leases would look less attractive. Has a nice yield compared to 5-year bonds. 99% occupancy rate. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | Comment | Hewlett-Packard Co | HPQ-N | 44.270 | Planning to buy Electronic Data Systems to better compete against IBM. This will be the same type of story as IBM in that you won't make a lot of money but the dividend will keep going up. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | BUY | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 37.990 | Recently bought timberlands. These companies have long tailed liabilities that stretch out to 10 to 50 years. Timberland is an asset for this type of liability. He is bullish on this company. The market is undervaluing it. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | STRONG BUY | Nuvista Energy Ltd | NVA-T | 18.530 | Producing over 25,000 BOE's a day. 75% natural gas. Had a core low risk West4 development asset base and then they bought Rider Resources (RRZ-T) which gave them a fantastic West5 deeper gas asset portfolio to mix in with the West4. Conservatively managed. 1X debt to cash flow. Trading at about 4.5X cash flow multiple. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | Comment | Oilexco Inc | OIL-T | 16.800 | Comparing this with Pan Orient Energy (POE-X) (see comments under POE-X) she prefers this as there is better valuation. It is not as expensive and has the same kind of upside. Also there is less political risk in the North Sea. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | DON'T BUY | Paramount Resources | POU-T | 16.750 | Gas production dropped from about 20,000 BOEs a day 1 year ago to about 14,000. Diverting money into many different companies that are not producing growth. There are better gas plays. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | PAST TOP PICK | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 55.900 | (A Top Pick Aug 1/07. Up 1%.) Picked because she saw a compelling valuation. Debt has continued to grow. Talking about a turnaround in 2008 at a number of facilities for an impact on production and cash flow. Not buying any more at this time. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | BUY | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 55.900 | Cheap. They have an oil sands component and maybe, like Encana (ECA-T) they will split the company. Thinks good things are going to happen. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | BUY | Petrobank Energy and Resources | PBG-T | 56.830 | Had a few pullbacks. Netbacks from their Saskatchewan production are spectacular. A lot of money from the market is being afforded for their technology that, if it proves out, will be quite revolutionary for extraction of oil from the oil sands. Good long-term hold. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | TOP PICK | Royal Bank | RY-T | 48.620 | This is a bank that has not had a significant problem with the US housing and credit crunch. Will have less revenue from their securities arm as there is less underwriting going on. Fundamentally it is a very strong bank. Strong dividend and growing. Price/earnings multiple is down by 25%. Good yield of over 3% for conservative investors. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | BUY | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 63.770 | A bellwether oil levered stock in Canada. Had a 2 for 1 split and over the next few years it will go back to the p[re-split price. Can’t see any reason this won’t happen again. Good entry point. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | Comment | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 36.250 | Has never been a fan of Thomson. It has now down this merger with Reuters and is getting away from the paper business into the electronic screen business. He would like to see 6 months to a year of operations to see what happens. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | TOP PICK | Tusk Energy | TSK-T | 2.380 | 60% gas. Did a great asset swap to get operatorship again. Trading at less than 3X cash flow. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Carbon Capture (CCS): - Capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel sources (power plants). Regulations around it are reasonably vague but it is such a new industry that the technology is not available. A market that you should be extremely leery of as there could be a lot of hype. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | BUY | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 2.800 | Turnaround story. Management did a spectacular job in getting out of an over leveraged balance sheet, doing some swaps on assets and managing to grow the production base without spending all of their cash flow. 6000 BOE's a day of gas is less than 1.5 debt to forward cash flow. Great growth profile. Good Buy in even the $3 range for a long-term hold. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | BUY | Highpine Oil & Gas | HPX-T | 13.080 | Just came out with their Q1 and shot the lights out. Probably the cheapest 20,000 barrels of oil a day you are going to find. Part of the overhang has been that they went in for quite some time without a president. Also went through period where it was difficult for them to get licenses, as most of the oil they produce is sour. Trading at 2.5X cash flow. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | PAST TOP PICK | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 9.380 | (A Top Pick Aug 1/07. Up 58%.) Production has gone up, costs are down and the upside she sees from their horizontal drilling in Edson is spectacular. Still a Buy. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | PARTIAL SELL | Mastercard Inc. | MA-N | 288.800 | Way overvalued. If you own and haven't taken profits yet, he would take at least half profits at this point. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | PARTIAL SELL | Questerre Energy | QEC-T | 3.430 | In the Utica Shale in Quebec. Good management and technical team. Because they have farmed out, they don't have a lot of capital exposure. A lower risk way to play the Utica Shale. She would be a little concerned about it stalling out for a while until there is more news from Forest Oil (FST-N). If you own, consider taking profits to rebalance your portfolio. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | PAST TOP PICK | Petro Andina Resources | PAR-T | 11.890 | (A Top Pick Aug 1/07. Down 11%.) 600 locations to drill in Argentina. Production up by 40% and will probably double again in 2 years. Export tax hit the stock but valuation is compelling and is still a Buy. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | Comment | Pan Orient Energy | POE-X | 12.300 | Spectacular successes with their Thailand plays. Just made a purchase in Indonesia. Government tax of 50% on any profit over $60. Between Oilexco (OIL-T) and this, she would prefer Oilexco, which represents better valuation in the market. (Not as expensive and has the same kind of upside. Less political risk in the North Sea.) | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | BUY | Profound Energy Inc. | PFX-T | 4.320 | Very conservative management. Valuation is compelling. Have a great suite of West 5 natural gas liquids rich assets. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | TOP PICK | Breaker Energy Ltd. | WAV.A-T | 11.170 | 50/50 oil and gas. Great growth. Great netbacks at $40. Exposure through their Irricana play, horizontal drilling. Have 23 locations on 400 m well spacing, have government approval for 100 m well spacing giving them 80 locations. Trading at 4.25X cash flow. Low debt. | 2008-05-13 |
| Jennifer Stevenson | BUY | Alberta Oil Sands | AOS-X | 0.850 | Like all the micro cap names it had a huge run and got smacked down when the oil sands euphoria left. Oil sands project don't need a lot of land if the right resource is under the land. In order to determine this, you need a lot of land to go hunting. They have a lot of land and have found some striking samples. If you want to own and small-cap oil sands play this is not a bad one to own. | 2008-05-13 |
| David Baskin | DON'T BUY | Visa Inc. | V-N | 82.380 | Stock roared out of the gate and people who were lucky enough to get it on the IPO made a lot of money. Feels it is a little too hot right now. He is concerned about 2 things in the business. 1) The increasing rate of credit card defaults and 2) as interest rates go up, their margins will get squeezed. | 2008-05-13 |
| Norman Levine | Comment | 3M Co. | MMM-N | 77.670 | (Market Call Minute.) This, like General Electric, is the US economy. Probably won't go anywhere for the next while. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | Comment | Altria Group Inc | MO-N | 21.580 | Split into 2 companies, Altria (MO-N) and Philip Morris International (PM-N). This one owns Philip Morris assets in the US, which is a no growth business however, there is no business in the world that is more profitable than the tobacco business. You would own this one for the dividend yield. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | DON'T BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 37.440 | Loathe right now to own a US bank. Have shown themselves to be poor business people. Chased all the wrong kinds of business and got caught with their pants down. Still more to come. Also there are prospects of a recession in the US. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | SELL | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 49.120 | Pretty much the most risky bank in Canada. Have exposure in the US through the Harris Bank and there will be headwinds in the US. Growth is also going to slow down in Canada. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | HOLD | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 38.950 | Gold has come off its high. Longer-term outlook continues to be good but has some near-term weakness ahead of it. Barrick (ABX-T) or Newmont (NMC-T) would be fine choices. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | HOLD | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 38.100 | There is a take out value of $42.75 on this one. It is very unlikely that the Ontario teachers and their banking supporters will pull out of the deal. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | HOLD | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 96.660 | Into natural gas and the oil sands. Expect CEO will get a phone call as to whether they will split similar to Encana’s (ECA-T) announcement. Likes the outlook for natural gas. Stock price has risen pretty quickly so watch for a pullback before Buying. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | WEAK BUY | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd | CTC-T | 74.000 | The premier Canadian general merchandise retailer. Had economic and weather headwinds in eastern Canada. At current valuations, it's an OK buy. No catalyst in the near term to move it higher. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | TOP PICK | Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce | RIO-N | 40.580 | Brazilian iron ore Company that also owns Inco. Global demand for steel continues to rise. There is a shortage of iron ore. Not expensive. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | Comment | Deere & Co. | DE-N | 89.370 | As long as farm income and grain prices stay high, this company will continue to do well. It will continue to be a good way to play the agricultural cycle. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | BUY | Duvernay Oil Corp | DDV-T | 57.620 | This is a very hot number and is capable of upside and a take out. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | BUY | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 92.200 | Stock went up on the announcement that they will be splitting into natural gas and integrated oil sands producer. The sum is worth more than the parts. Also into refining, which has not been good lately but it will be in the future. Before buying, you might wait to see if it pulled back a bit. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | TOP PICK | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 92.200 | He thinks that splitting the natural gas from the oil sands will surface the greater value. However, as 2 separate companies they will be more vulnerable to take out. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | HOLD | Harvest Energy Trust | HTE.UN-T | 23.750 | (Market Call Minute.) In conventional oil/gas and in refining and marketing. Refining and marketing has low margins right now. Too late to sell. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | Comment | IGM Financial Inc. | IGM-T | 44.220 | The biggest mutual fund company in Canada. Tend to have more of a buy and hold client than most mutual fund companies. Not as great investment performance. As a long-term investment, this is a good one. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | HOLD | Johnson & Johnson | JNJ-N | 66.710 | Only partly a big pharmaceutical. Also into medical devices, consumer products, cosmetic products so it is more diversified. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | BUY | Labrador Iron Ore | LIF.UN-T | 58.500 | Favourably disposed to iron ore and longer-term it looks good. Good payout. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | TOP PICK | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 37.750 | Great management, even though the CEO will be retiring. Good geographic diversification. Half their earnings come from the US. Very big internationally, especially in the fast-growing markets of the Far East. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | SELL | Morgan Stanley | MS-N | 47.650 | (Market Call Minute.) Not big on investment banking in the US right now. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | HOLD | Newmont Mining | NMC-T | 45.530 | Gold has come off its high. Longer-term outlook continues to be good but has some near-term weakness ahead of it. Barrick (ABX-T) or Newmont (NMC-T) would be fine choices. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | BUY | Nokia | NOK-N | 28.600 | Have 40% of the cell phone market and are virtually nonexistent in North America. Dominant in GSM and their biggest domination is in the developing world with the cheaper phones. They continue to gain share. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | HOLD | Pembina Pipeline Income Trust | PIF.UN-T | 17.480 | Main business is moving crude from the oil sands. A growth utility type of company. Every time it gets towards the $18 area, it seems to pull back. You could try to buy on a pullback but maybe this time it will move higher. Pretty fully priced. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | PAST TOP PICK | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 19.910 | (A Top Pick May 18/07. Down 23%.) Have not proven to be defensive. Most of the major drug companies have more of their larger drugs coming off patent shortly. At this point, downside risk looks pretty limited. 6% plus yield. A Hold. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | HOLD | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 201.750 | We continue to be in this amazing climb in fertilizers for the agricultural sector. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | Comment | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 142.250 | He is a value investor, so this is a stock he is not likely to ever own. Has strong growth, but the multiple it trades at is too high. If you are a growth investor, this is a good stock to own. You can Buy but don't forget to Sell. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | BUY | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 23.060 | (Market Call Minute.) Finally working out and you are starting to get the catalyst coming in here. Outlook looks great. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | TOP PICK | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 23.060 | Recently broke out after being a bit doggie. There is a new CEO with a new brush. Also has a position in the Utica shale play in terms of land and drilling. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | BUY | Teva Pharmaceutical | TEVA-Q | 44.710 | (Market Call Minute.) Biggest generic drug manufacturer in the world. More and more drugs are coming off patent so the growth outlook is fabulous. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | TOP PICK | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 37.000 | Likes merger of Thomson and Reuters. Good concentration in the financials, which is a long-term opportunity for them. Near-term the market does not like this; so take advantage that the stock is down. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | PAST TOP PICK | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 38.240 | (A Top Pick May 18/07. Down 1%.) Doing fine until they announced an acquisition of a New York electricity plant. Will be short-term dilutive to earnings and will need an equity financing to pay for it. Pretty clear sailing for the stock from here on. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | PAST TOP PICK | Vodafone Group PLC | VOD-N | 31.870 | (A Top Pick May 18/07. Up 15%.) English-based international wireless firm. In some good growth, developing markets. Good yield. Still a Buy. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | DON'T BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Canadian Banks: - Even though they are a large part of the TSX, there is no hurry to buy these. If you want to be in the financial sector the life insurance companies are a better place to be. (See his top picks.) | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | DON'T BUY | Sprint Nextel | S-N | 9.240 | In the high-risk investment category. Has been steadily going down from $23 to around $6. Company is totally messed up. Alienated its customers and lost all kinds of business. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | HOLD | Equinox MineralsLtd. | EQN-T | 4.610 | It's a rarity that you have a significant mid-tier mine going into production. Also has a uranium thing on the side. There is also the safety of country factor. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | BUY | GMP Capital Trust | GMP.UN-T | 17.050 | One of the most excellent brokering firms. Just reported and their expenses had taken over for the first time. Good income of almost 10%. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | BUY | Standard Chartered Bank | STAN-LSE | 0.001 | The best bank in the world to own. An English bank that is based in London and trades on London and Hong Kong exchanges. A very safe way to play banking in the developing world. Your broker can buy this for you. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | Comment | Thompson Creek Metals | TCM-T | 22.850 | Recent bad quarter was due to a mine they bought, which had to be reconfigured. Recovering now. Molybdenum prices have not been going through the roof like iron ore prices, which indicates there is a pretty good supply out there. He would favour iron ore right now. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | Comment | 5N Plus | VNP-T | 10.720 | He has been selling down. This is riding on a solar industry, which is dependent on all the players being able to continue to deliver their technology into a rather strange industry. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | HOLD | Bank of Nova Scotia (Pref.) | BNS.PR.O-T | 25.090 | 5.75% preferred shares probably makes sense. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | Comment | Philip Morris International | PM-N | 52.470 | Split into 2 companies, Altria (MO-N) and Philip Morris International (PM-N). This one has the non-North American assets, which is a strong growth business. If you were going to own one of them, this would be it. | 2008-05-12 |
| Michael Smedley | TOP PICK | Phoscan Chemical Corp. | FOS-X | 1.970 | A very sizable asset in phosphates. A phosphate is the third leg in fertilizer along with potash and nitrogen. The best and one of the few phosphate deposits in North America. Very speculative. | 2008-05-12 |
| Norman Levine | BUY | Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc. | RBA-T | 26.330 | Biggest auction house in equipment. Big business in the resource area out west. As the US falls into a recession, there will be more equipment coming out of other industries and business will be good for them. | 2008-05-12 |
| N/A | Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | A new box on our front page “Help in finding extra information about the comments” will give you valuable insight on how to get the most out of our site. Give it a try and I think you'll be pleased.
Bill | 2008-05-10 |
| Bruce Campbell | DON'T BUY | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 49.000 | His least favourite bank. Doesn't like the direction they are going. Had some problems but had a decent rebound. | 2008-05-09 |
| WAIT | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 39.510 | Have come a long way from having a hedge book and clearing out their hedge book. Came out with some great results the other day. Well diversified. Gold tends to take off in the July timeframe and he thinks there is a pause in gold right now. The technical picture on the company is not that bad. Has come down to the same level as the “left shoulder” on the chart. Wait until July. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | BUY | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 39.510 | To be a Buy you have to be reasonably confident about the gold price. Seasonally, gold usually moves May to September. If gold where to run again and take a shot at $1000, which he thinks it could reasonably do, this would be a good entry point. | 2008-05-09 |
| WAIT | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 12.870 | The company is in a good position. Well recognized internationally. Technically, the chart is showing a symmetrical triangle. Would wait for it to break out of the symmetrical triangle on the up side. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | TOP PICK | CML Healthcare Income Fund | CLC.UN-T | 15.200 | Labs and imaging business. Made an acquisition in the US and reported a 1st-quarter including this. Numbers were good. Did an issue to pay for it afterwards and it has been weak ever since even though the numbers were good. Have the ability to pay the dividend when they are taxable in 2011. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | HOLD | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 86.520 | Great company. He would like to add on weakness and you may get that chance in the summer being that it is gassy. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | Comment | Hudbay Minerals Inc. | HBM-T | 18.140 | As a zinc play you need economic activity. The chart does not look great and that just reflects the North American economy. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | Comment | Iamgold Corp | IMG-T | 6.080 | Latest news release that they will be able to mine in Ecuador was positive. Sold their Peruvian position to Rio Alto, which was also positive. Has a project in Ecuador that is to come on stream in 2010. Current production is fairly high cost. If gold where to go back over $1000 this will probably do quite well. | 2008-05-09 |
| TOP PICK | Kellog | K-N | 50.870 | A safer way to play the market right now. Good consumer products and good brand recognition. Managing their input costs quite well. Very little downside. Decent dividend. Get out of this on October 28. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | DON'T BUY | Loblaws | L-T | 32.650 | One of the reasons you may want to own it is because there is $30 a share in real estate value, but that is not the operating business and that would only come to light if they were in distress. It is actually valued quite expensively compared to other stores. Margins of all the grocers are going to get squeezed. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | BUY | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 37.370 | Trades at 11.5X earnings, which is a slight premium to both the banks and the other insurers. Has the best long-term growth. CEO announced he would be leaving next year. Longer term he is not worried at all. | 2008-05-09 |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 198.500 | Great chart showing a solid trend and the stock is still well above that trend. It could pull back to the $135-$140 level and he would buy at that level. It across that level and showed weakness he would sell. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | HOLD | Power Corp | POW-T | 33.450 | The underlying assets are Great West Life (GWO-T) and IGM Financial (IGM-T). In poorer markets, there is leverage on the mutual fund play. Great West reported the best numbers of the three Canadian life insurance companies but market concentrates on the Putnam group in the US. It will be fine. | 2008-05-09 |
| BUY | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 133.350 | Has broken through its all-time high recently. From a technical basis, it looks good. Solid uptrend. | 2008-05-09 |
| BUY | SPDR Health Care E.T.F. | XLV-A | 31.470 | (A Top Pick Oct 27/07. Down 11%.) This was basically a defensive play to the end of the year and was up at that time. | 2008-05-09 |
| WATCH | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 125.780 | Might be in a blow off (rapid rise) in oil, which makes it very difficult, especially when there are no fundamentals actually driving it. The big build in oil inventory should have driven the oil price down but oil still went up. Once past the seasonality, that is when the big drops can occur. Technicals look not bad. Chart shows an ascending triangle and it has broken through very nicely. You might wait for a pullback to the resistance point of about $105. | 2008-05-09 |
| WAIT | Yamana Gold Inc. | YRI-T | 14.880 | Technically, it formed a triangle in 2006 and then broke through, broke into a down trend line in 2007 and then went into an uptrend from mid-2007. It could have a bounce from this level if gold does well. If you own, you could be looking at $19 when you might want to unload. Thinks there will be weakness in gold into the summer months. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | DON'T BUY | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 48.100 | Coal has been really hot in this one is about one third coal. You could buy it here if you are desperate to hold it, but the upside is only 8% to 10%. It may pull back as coal quiets down. Would prefer paying $45 or lower. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | BUY | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 37.300 | He bought this in 2 traunches at $33 and $35. It popped since then based on the closing of the merger and a good first quarter. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | BUY | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 67.170 | Skated all the sub prime. Have a little bit of US exposure through Commerce Bank, which is retail exposure. Had a long enough ramp up before the closure so were able to get them to clean up any problems before they actually brought it in. | 2008-05-09 |
| TOP PICK | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 38.340 | A good way to play the oil at this point. Fairly good yield at about 3.8%. In a trading range and is near the bottom at this time and will go back up to the top of its range and possibly beyond that. | 2008-05-09 |
| Comment | TSX Group | X-T | 47.980 | The TSX has had a fantastic rally. Up to all-time highs. Chart shows it is bouncing off the top again, which is a positive sign if it can break that level. However, there is a downward trend on the lows, which concerns him. Technically, you are waiting for the breakthrough. | 2008-05-09 |
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Seasonal Investing: - As a seasonal investor, you would take small investments and rotate through the different sectors of the market. When does oil too well, when does Gold do well, when does technology do well etc.? You end up with a basket of these and you are averaging out over time. If you can get 70%-80% of those trades working, then you will be in the market. | 2008-05-09 |
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Gold: - Has been a fairly reliable trade every fall. About 70% of gold is consumed by jewellery. India has a Diwali festival, which has a huge consumption of gold. Fabricators start to buy the gold in July, which tends to drive gold up until the end of September. He is a Bull on gold and thinks it will go back above $1000. | 2008-05-09 |
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Oil: - Trade between Feb 5th and May 9th has been a very reliable time to trade. 23 of the last 25 years has been positive and beaten the market. What is actually happening is that the oil refineries are producing more and more gasoline for the summer driving season. The next opportunity that occurs is basically in July, which is when they refineries are starting to produce oil for the heating season. | 2008-05-09 |
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Food Companies: - What is happening here is that they are being squeezed and are having difficulty passing on price increases. What you want to see is a good solid name with a lot of Brand in the industry. Food tends to be in the consumer staple industries, which is a good place to be at this time. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | BUY | Avenir Diversified Income Trust | AVF.UN-T | 8.130 | Have announced a deal to sell their managed trust business and got a good price for it. Also selling their real estate. What will be left is a trust with a whole big pile of cash and a small oil/gas business. Expect they will pay a special dividend or collapse the company down. Pays 12%. | 2008-05-09 |
| Comment | Bear Creek Mining | BCM-X | 7.150 | Silver is used in industry so on a seasonality basis, it will probably go with the economy. This would mean it would probably pick up in the October time frame into May when it will then start to slack off. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | TOP PICK | Addax Petroeum Corp. | AXC-T | 50.000 | An oil play. A multibillion-dollar market cap oil stock, but because it is international it was lagging. Just reported and cash flow was annualizing at $12. Still has quite a ways to go. | 2008-05-09 |
| PAST TOP PICK | SPDR Technology E.T.F. | XLK-A | 24.500 | (A Top Pick Oct 27/07. Down 12%.) Technology sector tends to do well in the fall, from October into the beginning of January. The consumer Las Vegas electronics show tends to be a big driver. People tend to buy technology ahead of that. January was the suggested Sell date. Not a big fan of the technology sector at this point. | 2008-05-09 |
| PAST TOP PICK | HOLDRs Retail E.T.F. | RTH-A | 94.440 | (A Top Pick Oct 27/07. Down 4%.) Retail sector tends to do very well every year from the end of October to the end of November. This was a very short-term trade. His results where flat or slightly down. | 2008-05-09 |
| Bruce Campbell | TOP PICK | Anglo Potash Ltd | AGP-X | 6.070 | Junior potash play, adjacent to the big guys in Saskatchewan. Won’t be in production for about 5 years however it is in a joint venture with BHP Billiton (BHP-N). Potash is the one hot mineral that Billiton does not have and the easiest thing for them to do would be to buy the company and do it themselves. Also, if you value this company like you do potash you have an asset value of about $12. | 2008-05-09 |
| TOP PICK | SPDR Consumer Staples E.T.F. | XLP-A | 27.840 | From a currency perspective, he wants to be in something safe in the US. On a seasonal basis, consumer staples tend to do well at this point. From a technical perspective, the chart shows a solid trend line in place. Get out of this on October 28. | 2008-05-09 |
| Comment | U.S. Gasoline Fund E.T.F. | UGA-A | 59.330 | The big thing with seasonality is that you buy before the seasonal impact takes place. Technically, the chart looks very good but on seasonality, he is expecting there will be some weakness. The one thing not factored in, will people be making adjustments on their driving habits this year. Would start getting out of this position now. | 2008-05-09 |
| Cameron Webster | WAIT | Agrium | AGU-T | 87.840 | Has had a huge run. There is a consistent message that it may not be as strong by the end of the year. The market has been pricing it up for perfection. He feels there will be a pullback in some of the commodity prices, which would be a more opportunistic time to step in. Good diversified business. | 2008-05-08 |
| Brian Acker | Comment | Alcoa | AA-N | 39.650 | He has a model price of $41.23, a positive 8% differential. He thinks the high on this one will probably be about $42.20 and if it broke up through there he would use $42.20 as a Stop. | 2008-05-08 |
| Brian Acker | SELL | Bank of America | BAC-N | 37.330 | Model price of $36.89, a -3% differential. Thinks the US banks have a big head wind. Once we get through the credit crisis, (he thinks the federal reserve is letting inflation go) and once we get over this phase he expects a substantial increase in interest rates. | 2008-05-08 |
| Cameron Webster | SELL | Barclays Bank PLC | BCS-N | 36.190 | Being impacted by the credit markets. The UK is a bit of a rough market to be in. They don't have direct lending in terms of sub prime but have had some recessionary clues in terms of that market. Use any type of strength to lighten up and diversify into other sectors or a different geography. | 2008-05-08 |
| Brian Acker | BUY | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 41.000 | His favourite in golds. His model price is $46.70, a 20% positive differential. | 2008-05-08 |
| Cameron Webster | TOP PICK | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 12.350 | A global star if you look down their revenue streams and where they're getting their money. Pretty much outside of North America and Europe. Not super cheap, but the order book last year was really strong. There is a worldwide shortage of pilots and they pretty much do all the simulation. | 2008-05-08 |
| Brian Acker | DON'T BUY | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 40.760 | His model price is $37.21, about an -8% differential. | 2008-05-08 |
| Brian Acker | DON'T BUY | Canadian Pacific Rail | CP-T | 74.480 | (Market Call Minute.) Model price is $66.21 giving it a -8% differential. | 2008-05-08 |
| Brian Acker | DON'T BUY | CanWest Global Comm. | CGS-T | 4.030 | (Market Call Minute.) A model price of $3.76. A -8% differential. | 2008-05-08 |
| Cameron Webster | BUY | China Mobile Hong Kong | CHL-N | 84.870 | A really good proxy for the emerging market consumer. European, UK and US consumers may struggle for the next 12 to 18 months. The Asian consumer is still employed and earning |
