Latest Top Picks

Stock Opinions by Mark Jackson, CFA

HOLD
Still thinks there's potential. Payout ratio is about 170% which cannot be sustained without a cut. Also had a one time charge of $2 million which would have left the payout ratio at 128% which is still too high. Have enough to sustain distributions for one or two quarters and hopefully improve their margins.
wholesale distributors
WEAK BUY
Exxon Mobil
Have $5 US cash and this could be turned back in the form of a dividend or stock buy back. Will probably use some of it for exploration. All the big oil companies have a lot of cash on hand now. Would rather look to something like Encana (ECA-T) which has more leverage to gas.
integrated oils
TOP PICK
Falconbridge Ltd
Likes the company on its own, but it's also being in the midst of a takover. Really likes the Inco (N-T) Falconbridge combination in terms of cost savings. Creates a fairly large Canadian nickel producer which could be a potential take out target. Also thinks there's potential upside in commodity price.
integrated mines
DON'T BUY
Coca-Cola Company
Q: What is the potential for them in India? A: They have been in that market for some time already, so you are not going to see additional marginal growth. There are better ways to get exposure on a China/India play.
food processing
WEAK BUY
Glamis Gold
Not a gold bug. Likes some golds here. From a macro perspective he is looking at inflation being a little bit more of a problem going forward, so this might be a good time to own some gold. This company is OK, but he would prefer Goldcorp (G-T).
precious metals
TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion
There is still opportunities for them to grow. Has strong US expansion opportunities. Has best year over year growth going forward. Looking at 15% (including dividend?) over the next year.
banks
SELL
Intact Financial
Not a fan of the property/casualty business because it's very cyclical and a very competitive market place where margins can get squeezed very quickly. They are probably at their best profitability that they've seen for some time and it's likely to turn down.
insurance
WAIT
Has ahd a very good move in the last couple of months with fairly good announcements and the stock has had a step up in terms of valuation. Wouldn't chase it here, but would wait for a little bit of weakness in the price.
Healthcare
DON'T BUY
IBM Common Stock
Struggling for growth in the technology space in the US. Very difficult for it to maintain the margins that it had, Would prefer Cisco (CSCO-Q)which is trading at a fairly attractive valuation.
electrical / electronic
BUY
Cisco
Trading at a fairly attractive valuation. Well positioned in its market and has a lot more upside.
electrical / electronic
BUY
Niko Resources
The international oils have all been under significant pressure over the last while. It's due to a couple of things. 1) The international risk, although this company has done fairly well there and 2) the leverage to oil price. If you think the oil will move up again, it will be a good one to own.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Alcan Aluminum
The aluminum commodity looks fairly strong here and inventories have been shrinking. Have seen very good price performance from the underlying metal. Had a good quarter, but before buying would like to see another quarter from them.
integrated mines
TOP PICK
Has been a great solid story for him. Delivering great front store sales. Same store sales growth has been 5 to 5.5%. Margins have been improving. It's hard to find good growth names in the Canadian market. You can be fairly sure that management will continue to execute.
specialty stores
BUY
Suncor Energy Inc
Its 3 to 5 year horizon is probably going to be higher just from the fact of continue growth through the oil sands.
integrated oils
BUY
Petro-Canada
Oils have seen some fairly good pull backs across the board. Likes this one for its growth potential and its oil sands. Will continue to be able to grow production. Still good upside here.
integrated oils
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