Viewing Expert Josef Schachter | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Josef Schachter , President

Schachter Asset Management


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2016-04-22 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Energy. There is a real risk that oil will go down to the February low. The positives right now are the talk of a freeze, and June is coming which is a positive. Also, this week EIA data showed production in the lower 48 fell by 19,000, so we have been getting 20,000, 30,000 weekly production declines in the shale oils. This week, we got the 1st indication that natural gas liquids are now rolling over, and that the production of natural gas is rolling over, and we have had a decline of 61,000. Between the 2 we have had 80,000 barrels a day decrease in US liquids production in one week. The biggest number we have seen in 6 months. Also, there was the Kuwait strike which had been producing 2.8 million barrels. A chart showing OPEC market share versus the oil price, at the high was about 38%, and is now 32.5%. OPEC is desperate to get back into the 35%-36%, so they want to drive out non-OPEC production. The other problem is that inventories are at record highs in the US, 200 million barrels more than needed, and this week another 2.1 million barrel increase on EIA data. This needs to come down to the middle of the range, which means 200 million less. To be a bull, you need to see OPEC production fall by about another million barrels, and you need to see demand hold up. The wildcards now are the Kuwait problem and the potential of another freeze. On the other hand, Europe demand is falling off, Japan demand is falling off, and the US economy is not so strong. If this is the case, he thinks we go down to the low $30s in May-June.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
_N/A
2016-04-22 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Russian oil and gas stocks? Stocks globally are cheap, so the question is, do want to buy in Canada where you know the stories, the companies, the political risks; or do you want to go to stocks that may be a little bit cheaper, but in Russia where accounting rules are not the same and government control is a lot stiffer?


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-22 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ARX-T Arc Resources Ltd

This is considered one of the best of the operators. Low cost, focused on natural gas with good oil components. Believes the balance sheet is in good shape. If you see this back up by $2-$3, it would be a great buy.


Price:
$21.040
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-22 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart BIR-T Birchcliff Energy Ltd.

Super low cost gas producer. $.31 off costs and $.31 processing costs. $.10 for royalties. $.70-$.80 total costs. At $1.50 gas, they make money. They have a massive reserve life, 24 years of proven reserves, 39 years of 2P reserves. They are going to produce about 40,000 BOE’s a day this year. Net CapX will be less than cash flow, $1.28 versus $1.43. Last year they did a cash flow of $1.06 and thinks they will do under $1 this year. This is a Buy on any weakness.


Price:
$4.770
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2016-04-22 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart BNP-T Bonavista Energy Corp

(Market Call Minute.) A company he is really taking a liking to. They do about 80,000 BOE’s a day. Very low cost, $5.85 operating expenses. BV is $7.23. There is no goodwill on the balance sheet. If it backs off half of the gain that it has had or below, buy it.


Price:
$2.980
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-22 SELL Must be logged in to use chart BTE-T Baytex Energy Corp

This is one of those leveraged opportunities. If the price of oil was $70-$80, their stock could go a long way. BV is $11.46, so they are trading significantly below BV. It has had a very nice bounce from the lows. The big issue is their debt of $1.6 billion. Equity is $2.4 billion. Last year they produced 85,000 BOE’s a day. 2016 is going to be about 15%-17% less. The amount they have in the hedges is minuscule. Debt is a problem and their operating costs are a bit too high. If you own, he would recommend selling.


Price:
$6.560
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2016-04-22 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

Probability of foreign entities taking out a major producer like this? Thinks this is probably a good idea, but these are the kinds of things that are not going to happen very quickly. This company has done a great job on their hedge book, and still have $1 billion of hedges. BV is $22.05. Any time a stock gets close to BV, it’s a cheap story, and any time you see this trading below BV he thinks it is a great buy. This company is very astute.


Price:
$21.900
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-22 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart DEE-T Delphi Energy Corp.

(A Top Pick April 6/15. Down 32.4%.) Natural gas producer in the Montney. Very well-run. Likes the story longer-term. This could be a $3-$4 stock again, but the problem is low natural gas prices. They are managing themselves frugally for these tough times. A name that you want to buy on weakness. If they got back down in the low $1 range, it would be a great buy for small-cap investors.


Price:
$1.210
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2016-04-22 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ERF-T Enerplus Corp

The balance sheet had $1.2 billion of debt versus $900 million of equity in December 2015. Just sold about $278 million of assets, so they will be about $1 billion in debt. BV is still cheap at $4.34. Taking profits is a great idea. They are doing very well in the US, producing 106,000 barrels a day, up from 2011 when they were 75,000. Their balance sheet is now a lot cleaner. Thinks this is a survivor in this group. On the next decline it would be a Buy.


Price:
$6.960
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-22 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart GTE-T Gran Tierra Energy Inc.

Colombia producer. 28,000 barrels a day. They should do $.35-$.40 a day in cash flow this year. Balance sheet is very strong with $90 million of cash. They are going to be an acquirer. Just made 2 acquisitions at the end of last year. Fabulous balance sheet.


Price:
$3.750
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2016-04-22 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart HSE-T Husky Energy

(Market Call Minute.) They removed the dividend as they needed the cash flow to invest in the business. They are adding in more SAGD facilities this year and next. If this backs off $3 or $4, it would be a core name for the long-term.


Price:
$18.010
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-22 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart LRE-T Long Run Exploration

(A Top Pick April 6/15. Down 34.46%.) This is subject to a takeover bid from a Chinese operation.


Price:
$0.480
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2016-04-22 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart PGF-T Pengrowth Energy

Management has done a great job. Have very big strong supportive shareholders. Probably going to do $.70 in cash flow this year. The big problem is the debt, and they are working to sell assets. Will probably do about $300 million in asset sales this year to pay down debt. A very good balance sheet with almost $600 million of hedge gains, which they can use to pay down debt.


Price:
$1.870
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2016-04-22 SELL Must be logged in to use chart PMI-X Petromanas Energy Inc.

He likes the Albanian play. Had a very big discovery with deep light oil, but the problem was that the spend was getting out of hand. They tried to find partners, but didn’t get the bids they needed. Shell came in with an offer and offered them cash. That cash is now going to be distributed in the next 30-60 days to shareholders. The play that he wanted is now gone. If you own, wait for the dividend and then sell.


Price:
$0.080
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2016-04-22 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart POU-T Paramount Resources

They were building a massive facility to bring on a lot of natural gas, from the Montney, etc., and the problem was that they added a lot of debt. They finished 2015 at $1.7 billion of debt against $548 million of equity. Sold to Pembina under a contract basis to use the facilities, and they’ll pick up about $500 million which they can use to pay down some debt. On the positive side, it is trading at a significant discount to BV $5.18. His view is that the debt is still too high.


Price:
$8.760
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
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