Viewing Expert Ryan Modesto | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Ryan Modesto , Managing Partner

5i Research


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-04-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Market. It is hard to find a valuation metric that looks low. Pretty much anywhere you look, all the markets are looking overvalued. Saying the market is overvalued/undervalued is an oversimplification of a complex question. The real question is, by how much are markets overvalued/undervalued. If they are overvalued by 10%, and you have a 5-10 year timeframe, that is not so bad. Maybe you are getting a 2%-3% dividend yield on that during a downturn and you are probably going to be alright. If you are 25%-35% overvalued, you may have a problem. The US P/E ratios, 1973-1975 to the present day, gives you an average PE ratio of 16X. However, that doesn’t take into consideration that the world has fundamentally changed with things like the Internet. In 1991, the Internet was essentially opened up to the public. When looking at valuations from 1991 on, you actually see a step up in valuations. If we take the average valuation from 1991 to today, you get about a 19X average P/E ratio. He is in the camp that thinks that 19X is a fair valuation, especially when you consider things like record low interest rates and pretty good growth coming out of the US markets.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold. He likes this as insurance in a portfolio. Probably 5%, but no more than 10%. The best hedge an investor can do is being diversified across industries, across markets, and getting some emerging markets, US and Canadian exposure.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart ADW.A-T Andrew Peller

(A Top Pick March 3/16. Up 35%.) A slower growth name. He likes that it is a pure play wine company. The wine industry has grown a bit faster than beers. They are also starting to get into mixed drinks as well as launching the Gretzky distillery brands, which could have some potential. Now trading at about 19X or 20X, so advised his members to sell their holdings. If you own, it is still worth while holding, but don’t expect another 30% return.


Price:
$11.060
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart AIF-T Altus Group

A real estate advisory consultant firm, and also trying to build end to end software service solutions for real estate data and real estate analytics. This is what the markets are really starting to get interested in now. A higher margin business and recurring revenues. There is a good short term catalyst here, where they actually own 14% of a private company called Real Matters, which sooner or later is going to IPO with a possible $1 billion valuation. Dividend yield of 2%. (Analysts’ price target is $36.50.)


Price:
$30.260
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart AW.UN-T A&W Revenue Royalties Income Fund

This has a nice dividend. He likes the royalty structure, where they are just taking the income from the A&W operating business and flowing it out to investors in the form of dividends. A&W has some of the best same-store sales growth right now in the restaurant industry in Canada. Over 3 years, the average same-store sales growth has been about 5.5%. Dividend yield of 4%.


Price:
$39.720
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 PARTIAL BUY Must be logged in to use chart BUS-X Grande West Transportation Group

This does smaller buses, and he likes the idea of New Flyer (NFI-T) acquiring them. It is not the same business because of the smaller buses, but it may make sense as a complementary kind of tuck in for New Flyer. However, he wouldn’t invest on that speculation. Feels their real test now is that they have to deliver on the buses. They have a good backlog and have to show that they can actually build the buses and deliver them on time and not get into any cash constraints. Doesn’t see any indications of this being a problem going forward. Because of the strength of the stock has seen, it is probably better to average in, versus jumping in today.


Price:
$3.080
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart CCL.B-T CCL Industries (B)

One of his favourite names. A consumer staples name where they are doing containers, packaging for consumer discretionary products. Made some interesting acquisitions. Good capital allocator. Expensive, but it is always going to be expensive. This is worth owning.


Price:
$293.530
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CLS-T Celestica Inc

Essentially an outsource company. Other tech companies will go to them to either do some research on technology that they want developed, or build the technology for them. This is a company that can do well in a later stage economy, as demand is increasing for certain companies and they don’t want to build a new plant. Also, priced below its peers. The company is shareholder friendly where they have been buying back a lot of shares. They’ve done some restructuring and look like they are back on the growth path now. He likes this.


Price:
$19.250
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 PARTIAL BUY Must be logged in to use chart CRH-T CRH Medical Corp.

He likes this. A bit of a rollup. They are buying portions of medical practices in the US, and then are installing anaesthesiologists to do anaesthetic services. The valuation is running up a bit, but if you are looking at Enterprise Value to a bit of multiple, it is about 16X. Still a bit pricey, but nothing too crazy. He likes that they are offering liquidity to doctors, who are starting to age and want to get some cash out of the business. Good insider ownership. Worth owning, but you might want to average into it.


Price:
$12.030
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart CXR-T Concordia Healthcare

(A Top Pick March 3/16. Down 95%.) About 9 months ago, he advised his members that it was time to move on from this name.


Price:
$1.860
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart DBO-T D-Box Technologies

He is a fan of this. They have a lot of contracts with companies like Cineplex (CGX-T). They are slowly adding their motion seats to theatres. Momentum was looking good, but recently deal volumes was falling off a little. He wouldn’t be adding until he could see more seats being installed in theatres.


Price:
$0.390
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart GC-T Great Canadian Gaming Corp

Does this pay a dividend? It does not pay a dividend because they have some debt covenants on some fixed income that they issued. As a casino operator, it is kind of a stable business. Growing organically through some expansions in Vancouver. Also, have some new casinos in Ontario. OLG is opening up packages that companies can bid on as well. There is some good growth potential here. Not that expensive.


Price:
$24.490
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart GPS-T BSM Technologies

GPS hardware to assets on wheels, such as trains. It allows companies to track movements to generate efficiencies. They’ve gone through 2 acquisitions, and have pretty much doubled their customer base. He likes the growth. There is a bit of overhang potential where they have about 10,000 customers that are on the 2G network right now, which are expiring. There is a risk they don’t renew those customers, but the company has well telegraphed that. Longer-term, he likes the company. A lot of growth potential behind it. There is an insider investor behind it that is astute at selling companies like this, so they may be getting set up for some bigger special opportunity type of trades. This is worth owning.


Price:
$1.620
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart GUD-T Knight Therapeutics

A pharmaceutical company run by Johnson Goodman, who was also the cofounder of Paladin Labs, probably one of the best management teams you can find, and probably one of the best healthcare companies in Canada. Half their market cap is in cash, and they are either investing in the equity of companies, financing companies with debt at attractive interest rates, and/or investing in healthcare funds. These investments get their foot in the door, and then they can license out their products. Half their market cap is in cash, so half their value is doing nothing right now. You have to be patient. It may not do what you want in a year, but over a longer-term period, they are going to create great returns for investors. (Analysts’ price target is $11.00.)


Price:
$10.180
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ITC-T Intrinsyc Software Inc

An interesting way to get in on the Internet of Things boom. They build micro-processors that get embedded into other devices. The niche they are filling right now are devices that are involved in the Internet of Things. A small company that is volatile and high risk, but they are signing new deals and getting new contracts. Every contract is kind of a big deal for the company. If they can continue to ride the wave of the Internet of Things and not really have to do a whole lot, that will help support the business in and of itself. He likes this.


Price:
$2.660
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
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