President & Portfolio Manager at Stone Castle Investment Management Inc.
Member since: Oct '13 · 1863 Opinions
A year ago, the street expected a recession, but now it expects a soft landing. If there is a recession, will it be broad or only in certain sectors? The softening US dollar was a story last year and it continues to influence the market (shares have risen as the dollar weakens). Watch the USD. Also watch the US election this year. The last few years have followed exactly the pattern of a presidential cycle: years 1 & 2 are not strong, year 3 is very strong and year 4 is also strong. But in year 4, January-February are choppy, then March-August are strong, then September-October are choppy, then the rest of the year is strong. Let's see if 2024 follows this pattern.
He's owned this before and is watching it now. This year is pivotal: he wants to see their production ramp up and hit targets, and more contracts with bigger manufacturers.
A pandemic darling, but their valuation became extreme and they had trouble managing their profitability. As they remained profitable, it couldn't keep up with the street's rising expectations, and so it sold off hard. It bottomed last fall. He bought it as it started to rebound, hoping for rising profitability.
Their deposits in Australia has serious upside potential. Production numbers will improve. They had a choppy year in 2023, but rose as gold prices rose. Watch gold's price.
Has been steady over the years and pays a good dividend, though anything sensitive to interest rates was punished last year. He's owned this in the past and is worth owning now. Pays a steady dividend, better than what bonds and HISA pay. Rates appear to be coming down. Hang on, if you own.
Are in helium in Canada and U.S. with 3 successful wells. After drilling, they're now getting that helium to market. A US partner will process the gas. What price will they get? They project $20-30 million which would allow them to drill even more wells. Helium is far more stable than natural gas. he expects a January effect for AVN. Last year, they raised money for production but impatient shareholders sold, and they've seen tax-loss selling last month. It's one of his larger holdings.
Are diversifying away from cannabis into alcohol which diversifies their revenues. They bought Hexo. Interesting company. Also, they hold a lot of cash which will allow them buying more companies.
Are transitioning from growing cannabis into edibles, namely chocolate, including supplying US companies. They have a deal with Canopy. He continues to like it. Down the road, this will be taken out. Great execution.
Production has been growing. As the market rally broadens, watch the smaller/mid-cap companies.
They were penalized for carrying so much debt, and were effected by fluctuating commodity prices. But they've sold assets to Altagas to paid down debt. They ceased the dividend to buyback shares. He sold when they cut their dividend. But will watch it.
Their numbers continues to soar, but shares fell last year over concerns that the hit diet drugs will impact them. But business continues to bs strong as they grow revenues and earnings. Trades at a reasonable PE.
They've had a rough 2 years, but reported their first quarter of positive EBITDA last quarter.. Are focusing on payment services, with 25% penetration among customers. It's a high-margin business and numbers should continue to improve. He likes it.
Their technology extracts diesel (renewable). But they've never reached their production targets. Is watching the recent change in management. If they reach those number, this means they can build plants across the world and become very profitable.
They use AI to detect weapons on attendees at a large event; it's faster than metal detectors. Could be used as stadiums and schools. Is watching them to see if they sign more contracts and raise profits. Could be a hockey stick of a stock if this tech catches on.
An historic compounder that pays a good dividend. They buy businesses, invest in them and grow them organically. Done very well this way. But shares have sold off and haven't recovered as he expected. Maybe their deals with airlines are a factor. Fine managers over 20 years ago.