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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

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Greg Newman , Senior Wealth Advisor

ScotiaMcLeod


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2014-10-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets. To really understand what has happened, you have to isolate what brought this market down. There were a lot of contributing factors such as Ebola, terrible events in Ottawa, but the key is understanding where Europe is going. There were encouraging data points out of Europe today and a big market rally, which was not surprising. If you can see more data points like that on its own, he thinks you have the next leg up of this bull market. Unfortunately. today is just one data point. You need more before you can be sure. Also, markets can go higher if investors become confident enough that the ECB has investors back. The ECB is mostly job owning. It might even be beyond the ECB at this point, and requires the involvement of Germany and a fiscal stimulus. This is what has markets so worried. If you can see PMI's rising in Europe like they did today, stocks look really good. Stocks do want to go higher and the Bulls do want to run, but you definitely need Europe. It is typical that there was the retracement we had today, but you wouldn't buy just based on this snap back. You would buy if you are seeing a change. If you see the weak data points that we saw in September in Europe as just a summer slowdown, and will be actually snapping back on their own, it doesn't matter that they are feeble. What investors need to see is that it is trending in the right direction. This is really a “wait and see” to see who does carry the next leg. It really does depend on Europe.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2014-10-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Banks or oil companies for sustainability of dividends? First of all, payout ratios on the banks are between 40% and 50%. He doesn't know if the Canadian bank has ever cut its dividend. You have the highest assurance of quality in banks. Energy names are in the penalty box with an uncertainty and a question mark around oil. Capital wants to go somewhere. If investors are not looking at oil and at telecom stocks, they're going to go to bank stocks.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2014-10-23 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart AQN-T Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp

(A Top Pick Oct 2/13. 45.6%.) This is an interest-rate call. Also, based on the view that markets are not going to be easy over the next 12 months as they were over the last 12. This is a power/utility, a kind of gentle place to be. Yet they've got 30% adjusted earnings growth that he models over the next couple of years. Cheap at 8X versus its peers of around 7.7. He models a 10% dividend growth over the next couple of years. Dividend yield of 4.39%.


Price:
$8.890
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-23 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart ARX-T Arc Resources Ltd

He is modeling this assuming that WTI oil is at $80 and stays there, and natural gas is at $3.50 and stays there. The balance sheet is still very strong. Cash flow is 1.1X versus its peers at around 3X. Cash flow growth would still be very strong at around 16%. Dividend growth rate would still be quite good with the payout ratio of about 117%, still sustainable relative to its peers at that level of about 145%. Valuation would still be good. An excellent operator with great resources. They stand to benefit from a lot of LNG opportunities opening up, seeing that they are 40% exposed to natural gas.


Price:
$27.980
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-23 BUY Must be logged in to use chart BNP-T Bonavista Energy Corp

He still sees cash flow growth of about 11.4%, 2013-2015 with $80 oil and $3.50 gas. However, debt to cash flow does go higher at 2.2, which isn't horrible. Payout ratio goes to 134%, which is better than the group. It was cheap before at 5.1 with $96 oil, and at $80 oil it is 6.1, which is still cheap. If you are risk tolerant, you could buy this. LNG opportunities are starting to unfold.


Price:
$11.080
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-23 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart BTE-T Baytex Energy Corp

This is a good one. At this lower oil price, he still sees cash flow growth at around 18%. Dividend is still okay. Payout ratio would rise to 120%, but still pretty sustainable relative to its peers. Valuation would still be attractive at 6.8 versus the group at around 9. Cash flow would still be pretty good.


Price:
$36.220
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-23 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart CAR.UN-T Canadian Apartment Properties

Interest rates have been falling, so REITs have been going higher. He personally thinks we are in an environment of pretty soft interest rates. Feels you can own this name. They have cost control and an occupancy rate of around 98%. They are starting to shift to building from acquisitions. They want to grow on some of their vacant land in Toronto and Vancouver. Trading in line with its five-year average, so it is not a bargain here. Payout ratio of about 81%.


Price:
$25.010
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

If WTI is at $80 and natural gas is at $3.50, he is modeling a debt to cash flow of 1.1X on 2015 estimates, which is very reasonable compared to the group at that level at 3X. A 2015 estimated payout ratio, so their dividend sustainability would be 114%, which is not bad. The valuation they would trade at would be 7.4X enterprise value to cash flow. You want to be closer to buying at these levels then to selling.


Price:
$38.070
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-23 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart CSH.UN-T Chartwell Seniors Housing

A good story. He is modeling 7% compounded annual growth. Sees a strong 2nd half coming from ramped up sales and marketing. Have had this really nice strategy of recycling capital from non-core properties and putting them into higher quality, which should continue to drive multiple expansion. It is a potential takeover target. Long term tailwinds of seniors’ assisted living. He would try to buy it on a bit of a pullback.


Price:
$11.170
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-23 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart ENB-T Enbridge

The view was that falling oil would mean less Alberta production. To really impact their growth visibility you're going to have to have enormous change in Alberta production. For that you probably need $60 oil. He sees EPS growth of 12% for the next 5 years. Low payout ratio of 43%, so they have plenty of room to revisit their dividend policy, which they might. There is a lot of growth coming from drop-downs. Their earnings are exceptionally high quality. Yield of 2.67%.


Price:
$52.370
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-23 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart ERF-T Enerplus Corp

(A Top Pick Oct 2/13. Up 6.62%.) Pays a good yield. Got to $26 and he did do some selling. He would be much closer to buying this as it has a good sustainable dividend. If you own this one Hold.


Price:
$17.330
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-23 BUY Must be logged in to use chart FTS-T Fortis Inc.

90% regulated, so it is a good place to seek shelter from the storm. Also, has the advantage of having $4.2 billion of rate-based expansion within their existing asset footprints within the next couple of years. He is modeling EPS growth of around 8%. It has a 53% 2015 estimated payout ratio, so you are going to get paid this nice dividend. There will be some dividend growth. Not too expensive.


Price:
$34.600
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HSE-T Husky Energy

A good name. Solid and integrated. Even with WTI oil at $80 and $3.50 natural gas and almost no debt, it is still cheap. 5X enterprise value to discounted adjusted cash flow versus peers at around 7.5-8 times. Dividend is safe-ish at around 100% payout ratio. At these levels, unless you think oil is going to really fall apart, you own it.


Price:
$27.790
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-23 SPECULATIVE BUY Must be logged in to use chart LRE-T Long Run Exploration

Had previously recommended this, but was basing it on $96 oil with a very reasonable debt (?) to cash flow at 1.5, and this was a very cheap stock. Now with present oil prices, you're going to have a payout ratio of about 143%, which is average, but still higher. Debt to cash flow isn't too bad of about 2.4 versus 3 for the group. For somebody who doesn't mind taking on a little bit of risk, it is probably fine here.


Price:
$3.600
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-23 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart MG-T Magna Int'l. (A)

He sees 23% earnings-per-share growth and 11% free cash flow growth over the next couple of years. Has modeled them buying back almost 13% of their float over the next couple of years. Q2 was a beat. Margins are improving. There is a European story, but he is somewhat constructive that Europe will make it work. Cheaper than its peers. Yield of 1.56%.


Price:
$106.310
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
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