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Eric Nuttall , Portfolio Manager

Sprott Assett Management

Date Signal Symbol Company Opinion Price
2013-04-17 N/A A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Energy. There is only one data point he can put his finger on to explain the weakness in oil and that was the Chinese GDP number that came out and missed. It was supposed to grow by 8% but only growing by 7.7%. Beyond that, for oil to fall 5.5% this week and 11% this month, he can’t find a fundamental reason. This has been a frustrating thing for almost 2 years now. Many of the companies, both in Canada and the US, have been very strong but, because of the leaning towards income investments, fund managers have been in a net redemption mode for about 1 to 1.5 years. Right now, the oil/gas sector is massively, massively out of favour. Market will probably be volatile for the next 3-4 months.

 Price:
$0.020
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2013-04-17 COMMENT ARX-T Arc Resources Ltd

Only challenge he has with this is that it is perceived high-quality, and it is high-quality and you have to pay for that and he can’t stomach the multiple. Great asset base in the Montne both in dry and liquid gases. There are constant rumblings that they could be a takeout target. Already discounting a pretty high gas price. There are better opportunities in the natural gas market.

 Price:
$26.750
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2013-04-17 BUY on WEAKNESS BNP-T Bonavista Energy Corp

Gas and liquids producer. Has been a bit of a laggard relative to other natural gas producers so is trading at a discount.

 Price:
$14.620
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-04-17 HOLD BTE-T Baytex Energy Corp

Only about 30% of their production is affected by the price differential. This is one of the names that international investors like to short. Their CO play is the most economic oil play, be it light or heavy, in Canada. Hedged so he sees no reason why the dividend would be cut.

 Price:
$36.640
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-04-17 BUY BXE-T Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.

Likes this one quite a lot and has just started buying. Had a stellar track record over the last couple of years. Sitting in 2 very economic plays. Should be closing a joint venture agreement soon with a South Korean oil company. Trading around 3.5X 2014 cash flow.

 Price:
$5.930
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-04-17 TOP PICK CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

Uses this as a trading vehicle between $35 to $40ish plus but later in the year his $40 will get bent as there are more results from water flooding. One of the smartest management’s in the patch. Yields about 7.9%. High-quality assets supports both production growth and dividend.

 Price:
$35.010
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-04-17 PAST TOP PICK LEG-T Legacy Oil and Gas Inc.

(A Top Pick March 19/12. Down 52.17%.) One of the few companies to hit their numbers last year. Trading 4X below next year’s cash flow and you are getting over 160 barrels of light oil for free. Can grow by 12%. Still likes.

 Price:
$4.940
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-04-17 HOLD NKO-T Niko Resources

Has been a really, really bad performer. Might be better to hold on for an uptick in the stock price and then sell. Have had a string of dry wells offshore Indonesia.

 Price:
$5.640
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2013-04-17 DON'T BUY NVA-T Nuvista Energy Ltd

Natural gas has done very well because of a very, very cold April. The massive surface of gas storage has been whittled down to a deficit now, quite significantly. We are now in the shoulder season where weather is pretty tempered, so it is not until the summertime when it gets really warm that we burn a lot of gas to meet air conditioning needs. This stock is approaching levels that are pretty rich and wouldn’t be surprised if the company came to market to try to de-lever to ramp up CapX because they are sitting on a profitable liquids rich play. There are more attractive opportunities elsewhere.

 Price:
$6.720
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2013-04-17 HOLD PPY-X Painted Pony Petroleum

Company thinks they can essentially quintuple production over the next 5 years using internally generated cash flow. Management has done a fantastic job of aggregating Montne acreage in exactly the right postal code. West coast LNG is a longer-term theme. Pegging a theme on a takeout is absolutely impossible so they are maintaining a strong enough balance sheet so that a takeout is not a necessary end.

 Price:
$9.180
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-04-17 HOLD PXX-T BlackPearl Resources Inc

Junior oil sands companies has been a tough space. Great management team. Their challenge now in a very weak equity market is that they are faced with a funding shortfall. Have 2 projects that require financing. Thinks the market is waiting for clarification. The value of the asset is substantially higher than what the share price is.

 Price:
$1.970
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2013-04-17 PAST TOP PICK RPL-X Renegade Petroleum Ltd.

(A Top Pick March 19/12. Down 69.15%.) Down 50% since converting to a disco and there are a lot of questions about the sustainability of the dividend. $34 million higher than what was expected by the Street. Thinks there was a significant overreaction by the market. Still likes.

 Price:
$1.220
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-04-17 DON'T BUY SGY-T Surge Energy Inc

Trading at very, very low levels and is trading at its proved value producing reserve value. This means just producing existing production, and given no value for 1) proved reserves that hasn’t been drilled and brought on 2) probable reserves or 3) any un-booked upside (acres they haven’t drilled). The current value of the stock plus debt is implying that all of that additional upside is worth nothing. This company has had a number of stumbles. Stock is very cheap but he sees no reason to buy it. There are better names.

 Price:
$2.880
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2013-04-17 COMMENT TBE-T Twin Butte Energy

Should be regarded as a low growth, stable dividend player. If oil falls significantly more, he would be mildly cautious. Have been hedging on both their oil exposure and the differential exposure. Very confident management.

 Price:
$2.310
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2013-04-17 DON'T BUY TLM-T Talisman Energy

Not on the top of the list of names that he would want to buy. Has been a perennial value trap. Gone through multiple CEO’s. A complicated asset base, which limits the potential for foreign interests.

 Price:
$11.120
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 15 of 517 entries
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2 Comments

petersirie

December 17th 2012 at 6:46pm

Keep up the quality commentary please. I have really appreciated your insight.

boblewellyn@yah

March 16th 2013 at 7:50pm

There is a report that Petrobakken has started a gas injection program that has substantially increased their production and reserves. Stock closed at $9.50 on Friday, March 15, 2013, probably because of this report.

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