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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

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Eric Nuttall , Portfolio Manager

Sprott Assett Management


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2015-12-31 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Energy. Not expecting oil to get much above $60 for the next 2-3 years because there is adequate supply in the major 3 type basins in the US. Any time you approach the $55-$60 level, you will see a very significant ramp up in activity. It’s a long way from $35-$36 to somewhere in the $60s, where he thinks we will be this time next year. Today’s price is at a level where most companies are bankrupt. At $35 oil, companies have almost no margin and the cash flow they are generating is not enough to offset the decline. All companies have decline issues, because wells decline due to natural loss of reservoir pressure. A company’s decline rate is about 30%-32% in Canada. If they stop drilling totally, production will fall by 32%. As the price has fallen, availability of cash flows to spend on drilling has gone down hugely, and yet they are still fighting these decline issues. This is true in Canada, US and globally. That is why the US, the rig count is down about 67% from the highs in late 2014. With drilling down 67%, production is falling. US production down about 400,000 barrels per day. That trend is going to continue until we get an oil price recovery. In order for companies to generate enough cash flow to offset declines and maintain flat, they need at least $50 oil. The market will be undersupplied this time next year unless we get a response in the oil price. Because of Iranian oil coming on and a weak period for refineries, Q1 is probably going to be crummy.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
_N/A
2015-12-31 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Small Caps. Hoping for a better year in 2016. The index is down about 13% year to date and his fund is down about 1%. The challenge is twofold. 1.) There have been a lot of US Shorts, i.e. hedge funds attacking Canadian names by issuing Short reports and stocks falling 40%. This has been happening repeatedly. Consistently those reports are found to have no merit yet the stocks still fall. 2.) A lot of names have acted like oil stocks, even though they are not. Some have limited exposure to oil, but have been annihilated. If he is correct in his oil call for next year, there are many small-cap names that should benefit as a 2nd derivative trade on oil. A rising tide lifts all boats.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
_N/A
2015-12-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ARX-T Arc Resources Ltd

This is one of those “steady Eddie” gold plated names, which he typically does not buy because it typically does not become a price where you can usually make some really good money. Has held up fairly well, down 20%. His position is to buy names that are down 80%, where there is blood in the streets. 7.2% dividend yield.


Price:
$16.700
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-12-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart BNP-T Bonavista Energy Corp

One of the more financially levered names. Valuation is at a point where it is almost cheaper for them to buy their own shares than it is to drill. Have put up several assets for sale, with the big one being their Montney BC acreage, which is hoping to come to fruition sometime in January. Proceeds could be upwards of $150-$200 million applied to their net debt. They have a very good hedge position for next year. A good way to play a leveraged increase in the price of oil.


Price:
$1.820
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-12-31 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart BTE-T Baytex Energy Corp

(A Top Pick Dec 1/14. Down 79.44%.) At $90’s, this is a very inexpensive stock. At $50, he believes the stock could double from today’s prices. It has a balance sheet issue at $35 oil. Have no debt maturities until 2021.


Price:
$4.480
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-12-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart BYD.UN-T Boyd Group Income Fund

A “steady Eddie” small-cap name, which you are not going to get rich from but not going to get hurt. A low organic growth rate story with a rollup potential of auto collision/paint companies. Consensus target is probably less than 10%. Modest dividend yield of 0.7%. Not a name for him.


Price:
$66.100
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-12-31 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart CASH CASH

(A Top Pick Dec 1/14.) Currently has 10% of his cash position sitting on the sidelines, but that can go up or down 3%-5% in a day. His bias is to be fully invested heading into the new year.


Price:
$0.010
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-12-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

His Top holding, and remains a mystery to him because it is materially cheaper than other names with inferior projects, balance sheets and dividend yields. Feels the dividend is safe. People are still hung up on the amount of paper they issued over the past few years. They did so to acquire a lot of properties. Management owns a lot of stock. In terms of quality, this company is in the top 10 in terms of quality in Canada.


Price:
$16.120
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-12-31 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HSE-T Husky Energy

Rather than eliminating or decreasing dividends, they decided to flop it into a form of stock dividend. In a single day a lot of dividend funds were forced sellers giving it a one-day significant fall off. Has recovered somewhat, but not a name the street is ever going to be fully warmed up to. To him this is an Avoid.


Price:
$14.310
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-12-31 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart IT-T Intertain Group

Online bingo that has 40%+ margins, a huge retention rate of clients, so this is a very strong recurring revenue model. Trading at 5X next year’s earnings and 4X 2017 earnings. The stock fell from $12.50 to $6.75 on some bogus Short report. He is looking for 20% growth.


Price:
$9.960
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-12-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart NBZ-T Northern Blizzard Resources INC

On track to have a really good 2016 because of hedging, but the price does not reflect this. A heavy oil producer but people forget that they have an incredible hedge position for 2015 and 2016. This year they were 26% hedged at $91 and in 2016 they are 60% hedged at just under $80. Pure Saskatchewan exposure. Dividend of roughly 12.8% and that is not being cut.


Price:
$3.960
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-12-31 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart NHC-T Nobilis Health Corp

As far as he knows, they still have not released their financials. There was also a Short report that came out. When this got down to $3, he was a Buyer at $2.90 but was a Seller at $4. In Small-cap land, you can buy good companies and wait, and at the same time also buy companies that are being pounded by the market due to extreme circumstances. Management team is now in a rebuilding confidence stage.


Price:
$3.910
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-12-31 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart NYX-X NYX Gaming Group Ltd

Stock has fallen from $3 to $2 and rallied back to $2.50 on 2 concerns, which he feels there is absolutely no merit to. One of their customers is Amaya gaming (AYA-T) which put out a bad Q3 because of poor poker revenues, but NYX has zero exposure to that. What they do have exposure to is the online gaming part, which is a key growth aspect to Amaya, but a huge win for NYX. Cash balance was lower than people expected but management has said they are now cash flow positive, so the balance sheet is not a concern. Just penned a $10 million strategic alliance with a US casino magnet. Going from negative EBITDA this year to $30 million or higher in 2016, and 50 million are higher in 2017. Trading at 6X next year’s EBITDA and 4.3X 2017 EBITDA, and all its peers traded over 10. 30% plus organic growth.


Price:
$2.720
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-12-31 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart PD-T Precision Drilling

Even if oil increases to $55-$60, the increase in cash flow from producers will all be deployed into the fields and there will be an increase in drilling, but there will still be too much capacity in idle rigs for the service companies to have much purchasing power. This name would have to go to $4 for him to be interested. If it rallied much above its current price, he would consider Shorting it.


Price:
$5.470
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-12-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart PGF-T Pengrowth Energy

This had the benefit of some spectacular hedges. In 2016 they have roughly 59% of their oil production hedged at $88.57, which doesn’t come off for a couple of years. If you remove the benefit of the hedges, the valuation of the actual company is not that low. Trading at a premium multiple if you take off the hedges, and at the same time once you remove the hedge book, even at a $55-$60 oil price his debt estimate is materially higher than most people believe, ballooning to 6X in 2017. If looking for a way to play an increase in oil, there are other names he is more comfortable with.


Price:
$1.020
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 15 of 995 entries
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5 Comments

petersirie

December 17th 2012 at 6:46pm

Keep up the quality commentary please. I have really appreciated your insight.

boblewellyn@yah

March 16th 2013 at 7:50pm

There is a report that Petrobakken has started a gas injection program that has substantially increased their production and reserves. Stock closed at $9.50 on Friday, March 15, 2013, probably because of this report.

car2nz

April 10th 2014 at 3:12pm

When Eric says BUY...You should be SELLING ...When he says Sell...You should be BUYING. He is consistently WRONG! It's amazing!

BeauRegard

April 21st 2014 at 3:36pm

Not the sharpest knife in the drawer!

CH-Investments

April 26th 2014 at 10:04am

Not a fan of all his picks but some of them have great potential to generate a large profit. Have found a number of decent picks here and have done my own analysis which has made me operate at a decent profit.


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