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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

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Eric Nuttall , Portfolio Manager

Sprott Assett Management


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2014-07-25 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil. There has been a pullback and he sees this as an opportunity. Had felt the energy sector had gotten a little too frothy in April-May, so had taken the cash in his fund up to 34% and was adding some large caps, not the market he usually focuses on. Now deploying cash and is down to 10%, and has been selling his large caps. Oil price is high and the differential between Canadian oil and light oil has been shrinking. Also, the loonie has been falling. Canada is adding “take away capacity” via rail to the US. All of the major issues that investors had challenges with, and the reason they were not investing in energy stocks, have now disappeared. As a consequence there were a bunch of stocks trading at really cheap values. Fundamentals today are the best they have been in 4-5 years. Stocks have had too good of a run. We’ve had a pullback and now is the time to be adding. He is a long-term believer in a high oil price, $100-$110. Many of his Top names that he would hold can grow production by about 20% a year spending 1X cash flow or grow at 10% and pay a 5%-10% dividend yield.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
_N/A
2014-07-25 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Natural gas. Not as bullish on natural gas as there is a ton of low-cost supply. We have gone from a very bullish to a very bearish scenario in a month. At $4 there is enough plentiful supply in Canada and the US. Areas like the Marcellus shale have grown anywhere from 4 BCF a day to as high as 15-16 PCF, that is the equivalent of being the cheapest in 4 years. That 15 PCF is heading to 30 in the next 4-5 years. When he looks at natural gas names, they have to be very low-cost and preferably have liquids associated with the gas stream because that is where the majority of the economics are derived from.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
_N/A
2014-07-25 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart AAV-T Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd

Has recently been buying this at around $5.50 because had felt it had gone too negative. Won’t be holding it for very long. For a longer-term investor, this is doing just fine. Their production comes on in lumps, so you can wait a quarter or 2 before there is really much to talk about. They should have some exploration down to the southeast of where their properties are now. Have been increasing the productivity of their wells along with all the other Montney producers.


Price:
$5.910
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-25 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart ATH-T Athabaska Oil Sands Corp

(A Top Pick July 30/13. Down 1.79%.) Had been on the verge of getting $1.3 billion from a Chinese company, and this is still dragging on. The $1.3 billion is now going to be $1.23 billion. There have also been recent headlines that some Chinese executives that were involved have been arrested. He would rather invest in others. If you own, you could get a gap up if they eventually get the proceeds, which he thinks they will. Continue to Hold.


Price:
$6.880
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-07-25 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart BNP-T Bonavista Energy Corp

(Market Call Minute.) Would hold off on this. They have limited exposure to any upside in natural gas. Have been doing a good job of turning things around, but there are other names he likes better.


Price:
$14.480
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-07-25 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart BTE-T Baytex Energy Corp

Thinks they raised money at $39.50 to buy Aurora in Texas. In retrospect it was a pretty good transaction. It took a little while for the street to appreciate how much free cash flow that asset will contribute over time. They have to spend a certain amount to maintain production and grow it a little, and all of the excess cash flow from Baytex can either be used to repay debt, which they don’t have a lot of, or they can use it to increase their dividend, or buy other acreage. Sold his holdings because it had regained the multiple it had. There is a new team, so there is a little bit of proving they have to do to the street. Trading at a multiple where people are already baking in extremely good operational success. On a relative valuation basis, he would prefer other names. If you own, it is a steady Eddie name, and you are looking at roughly 10%-12% total return.


Price:
$48.590
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-07-25 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart BXE-T Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.

Had been mildly critical of this when the stock was mid-$9’s and they came to market to try and raise about $250 million. Due to the share price dropping off, they clarified that they had wanted to buy out one of their partners on some other acreage. There has been a knock on people’s perception of the company, and it takes a very long time to regain the multiple. While it is cheap, he thinks it is going to stay cheap for a period of time. If you are a long-term investor and don’t want to realize capital gains, you can stick around.


Price:
$8.620
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-07-25 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CJ-T Cardinal Energy Ltd

This is more of a yield play. They IPO’d in Dec/13 at $10.50. Sold his holdings in the mid-$15-$16, feeling that the easy money had been made. They are now essentially a pure play on the Glock where they have drilled 2 wells. Three wells will be released the next time they come out with results in about 3 week’s time. The real upside is that they are under leveraged, and given the real low decline rate of their assets, they are generating a lot of excess free cash flow, which they don’t necessarily want to deploy into their existing play. They are looking at other plays. They have been targeting a 2000 barrels a day acquisition for many, many months. It seems they may be getting closer to achieving that. Given that they are trading at around 7.5-7.8 times enterprise value to cash flow, they’ll likely be able to make an accretive acquisition and have the stock go up. There are other names he would prefer right now.


Price:
$18.800
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-07-25 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

(Market Call Minute.) This is a core holding. He typically sells in the high $40’s and buys in the low $40’s. This will be $60 stock in 3-4 years.


Price:
$45.220
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-25 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CQE-T Cequence Energy Ltd.

He has been using $4 natural gas for 2015 for his own modeling, which is proving to be where the futures price is coming down to. This one screens out as a very cheap stock, but unfortunately is somewhat cheap for a reason. Had an asset in the Wilrich, which they sold to Bonavista (BTE-T), and they took the cash and de-levered the balance sheet, which was fine. They were also ramping up CapX very meaningfully. However, when they came out with their pro forma guidance in terms of production, relevant to the increase in CapX, it was overwhelmingly disappointing. Also, there has been a massive turnover in sentiment with respect to natural gas.


Price:
$2.280
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-07-25 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart DEE-T Delphi Energy Corp.

Not the top 1, 2 or 3 in natural gas names, but if you own he thinks you will do fine. They put out an operations update with one really good well. Also, had another that was crappy in terms of liquids yield. He is focusing more on the crummy well because of the variability in geology. Have been deleveraging given the ramp in their cash flows. Part of that was contingent on high natural gas prices, and as gas has sold off, he thinks this thesis is somewhat challenged. Have an offer for their Wapiti asset which would serve to deleverage the balance sheet. There are names he likes better, but sentiment has overshot to the negative.


Price:
$3.850
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-07-25 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ECA-T Encana Corp

Has been buying, thinking that their quarter is going to be good. It is down, where most large caps are up this month. He has never been a big fan of this company, but it is really turning around. Doesn’t think people are appreciating some of the upside in their assets. Shed a lot of their non-core assets. Have been able to double the productivity out of their Montney with a small incremental cost. Upside in their Duvernay is enormous with 10 wells coming on averaging 100 BOE’s per day. If they got rid of their PrairieSky (PSK-T) holdings, it would clean up the corporate structure. Trading at a very cheap level.


Price:
$23.840
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-25 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ERF-T Enerplus Corp

This is a solid name. Management has done an awesome job of deleveraging over the past couple of years and refocusing their drilling efforts. Likes that 50% of their production is US, Bakken and then Marcellus. Marcellus rates have been getting better over time, just as a lot of operators have. Do have some pricing risks, which they have been open about. Thinks that 30%-40% of their gas is exposed to the blowout in the basis differential. He saw the upside in their Bakken acreage. Stock has been trading at it really big discount, but over time that differential has narrowed. Feels the real easy money has been made. As a long-term investor looking for yield, it is a very solid name.


Price:
$25.630
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-07-25 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart LEG-T Legacy Oil and Gas Inc.

Have done a great job of deleveraging. He would be a buyer in the low $8’s. It has regained some of its lost multiple. Thinks that in 2015 they will outspend cash flow to increase their production growth to around 20%, versus their historical 12%-13%.


Price:
$8.780
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-07-25 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart LRE-T Long Run Exploration

(Market Call Minute.) Not a name he would have in his top 10. There are more exciting names, but in terms of a dividend payer it is fine.


Price:
$5.780
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
Showing 1 to 15 of 766 entries
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5 Comments

petersirie

December 17th 2012 at 6:46pm

Keep up the quality commentary please. I have really appreciated your insight.

boblewellyn@yah

March 16th 2013 at 7:50pm

There is a report that Petrobakken has started a gas injection program that has substantially increased their production and reserves. Stock closed at $9.50 on Friday, March 15, 2013, probably because of this report.

car2nz

April 10th 2014 at 3:12pm

When Eric says BUY...You should be SELLING ...When he says Sell...You should be BUYING. He is consistently WRONG! It's amazing!

BeauRegard

April 21st 2014 at 3:36pm

Not the sharpest knife in the drawer!

CH-Investments

April 26th 2014 at 10:04am

Not a fan of all his picks but some of them have great potential to generate a large profit. Have found a number of decent picks here and have done my own analysis which has made me operate at a decent profit.


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