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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

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Eric Nuttall , Portfolio Manager

Sprott Assett Management


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2014-03-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gas. A little more optimistic on the longer-term outlook for oil than he is for natural gas. Gas has benefited from the weather which has been remarkably cold, and as a result we have burned much more gas this year than we did last year, which has led to very low storage levels. US is going to be about 850-900 billion cubic feet deficit. Alberta storage is at the lowest since 2004, which is creating a lot of short-term price strength for natural gas. His concern in the near-term is at we are now entering a period where the peak demand for natural gas calms because we don’t have to heat our homes as much. At that point, we can now revert to more coal fuelled power generation and right now, because gas has been so strong and the price of coal has been so weak, he feels we could see some very material switching that the market is not appreciating. Looking out to the fall, we’ll probably see another strengthening of natural gas but a little cautious over the next 3-4 months.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
_N/A
2014-03-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil. Price of oil has been high and will remain high. For the first time in quite a while, we are now seeing a repatriation of funds out of the US into Canada. Especially if you consider the impact of a depreciating loonie, the price of oil in Canada now sells for more than it does in the US. Yet over the past 2 years, Canadian oil companies have greatly lagged its US peers. We are starting to see a catch-up occur and this is what excites him the most. Prefers the producers over the services.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
_N/A
2014-03-11 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ATH-T Athabaska Oil Sands Corp

There are a few dynamics in the story that might challenge the stock price from reaching $10.62 a year from now. Shareholder base largely consists of New York hedge funds as opposed to fundamental buyers. That community needs to sell eventually to realize again on a trading catalyst. This is a stock that you need to be really on top of. Risk/reward is not worth the gray hair.


Price:
$8.230
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-03-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CJ-T Cardinal Energy Ltd

Really likes this. Should be having a drilling update by the end of this month, which is their first 2 wells which is kind of proof of concept to the play that they acquired from Penn West (PWT-T). Liked that the stock came out at a very cheap valuation when they IPO’d late last year. The market has since given them a currency to use their stock to go aggregate further assets, which he guesses they have done subsequent to the year end. Pending positive well results, he expects the stock could further increase. By his numbers, it is trading very cheaply at roughly 5X next year’s enterprise value to cash flow. Given the nature of the wells they are drilling, if they come on as robust as management has been guiding, it probably has the most sustainable dividend model of any oil/gas company in Canada. Dividend of almost 5%.


Price:
$13.230
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-11 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart COG-N Cabot Oil & Gas

Sitting on 25 years of drilling inventory in the Marsalis shale play. This is a play that in the past 4 years has grown from a very low production base to a current production of 13,000,000,000 ft.³ a day, which is equivalent to all of Canada. This is a reason longer-term that he is a little bearish on natural gas because of this one area that has up to 25 BCF of productive capability. Stock has lagged by about 25% this year because all of this production growth and the infrastructure isn’t keeping up to the same pace. The value of their gas in the short term is lower than that of other areas in the US. This is above the one year phenomena. Share price fell by about 8% when they disclosed they are going to get about $0.60 less. He feels you are looking at a $45 share price in the next year as they continue to drill unbelievably economic wells.


Price:
$35.260
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-11 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

(A Top Pick April 17/13. Up 19.07%.) Still likes this. It is a frustrating name because it feels like the name is kind of stuck. Very well owned in Canada and they really need to rely on the incremental buyer from the US coming into the name. Have a very sustainable dividend becoming more sustainable in time as their capital efficiencies improve and their decline rates fall with the implementation of water flood. Just listed in New York.


Price:
$38.720
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-11 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart DCK-X Donnycreek Energy Inc

Drilling results were not stellar and the stock fell about 25% on the day they announced the results. This is a natural gas company with 2 core areas. On the one they have been having good development success. Drilling very expensive wells, but rates of return seem to be very good. Have grown production up to about 1700 BTUs a day so on a run rate basis, that produces about $25 million of cash flow, so the stock is trading at around 4X cash flow. Market was disappointed on the initial drilling results from another area which was an untested Montne trend where they were pushing the fringe of the boundaries. If it had worked, it could have been very, very exciting. They couldn’t test the wells because of the sour contents. This means they need to retest after breakup by bringing on better equipment. Even if they get a productive rate, the cost to produce sour gas is much more than sweet gas, about 4 times. Cautious on the name as the risk is too high.


Price:
$2.290
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart DEE-T Delphi Energy Corp.

Delphi Energy (DEE-T) or Painted Pony (PPY-T)? Doesn’t own either. In terms of natural gas names, he is looking at them potentially having weakness so he wants greater liquidity, meaning larger market as opposed to small caps. Both of these are very good companies. This one has been remarkably successful at improving how they been drilling their wells in an area called Big Stone, where just by a few different tweaks they really unlocked the economics for their drilling wells that are coming on, probably at a function of 3 or 4 times greater than they were 1.5 years ago. There is some uncertainty as to how they fund their growth. Debt has been going up recently.


Price:
$2.580
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-03-11 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart DTX-T DeeThree Exploration

Struggles with this because they have just been knocking the ball out of the park. The reserve report is probably going to be top decile. They grew production and reserves much more than he feels the average consensus was, by about 10%. His only struggle is that they’ve now broached the 10,000 barrel a day mark because they’ve been so successful and drilling production, and because of their high declines, it is becoming more challenging to sustain the same growth rate. They believe they can add 1000 barrels per day of production per quarter, but the execution risk is starting to creep up. If the stock fell back into the mid-$8, he would be buying.


Price:
$9.110
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-03-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart FRC-T Canyon Services Group

There is indication that the fracing industry in Canada is strengthening. There are 3 companies in Canada that fracture stimulate wells, this one, Trican (TCW-T) and Calfrac (CFW-T). Canyon is a pure play on Canada. Put out an absolutely miserable quarter which shows just how competitive the current landscape is. There were signs that things are improving. He is a little cautious in the near-term. Later on this year and into 2015, this segment of the marketplace is tightening and these names will have pricing power once again. EBITDA margins that are currently down around 11%, may go back to their historical 25%-35%. The name has upside, but you are going to have to wait a little longer than what current consensus is. There could be near-term weakness if the price of gas comes off because of fuel substitution to coal.


Price:
$12.290
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart LEG-T Legacy Oil and Gas Inc.

Executed quarter after quarter after quarter, beat expectations, yet nobody cared. His hope is that there are 2 underlying catalysts that could make people care. The reserve report they issued last week was very, very good and highlighted just how profitable that these barrels are that they are producing. It is costing them on average just over $20 to find a barrel, and at the end of the day, when you take off royalties and operating costs, they are net backing about $60. Their historical production growth rate has not been quite high enough to get people excited. He believes they are currently seeking to bring in a joint venture drilling partner on part of their acreage. His guess is that they are exploring the sale of some of their production to raise cash to pay down their debt to bring down their debt to cash flow targeting a 1X multiple. This could create more interest.


Price:
$6.610
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-11 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart MEI-X Manitok Energy

Not a name that he is comfortable with. Lost their key geological person who took them into the disturbed (???) Foothills trend where they had a remarkable amount of success. Their development inventory in that play is shrinking and they’ve since farmed in on Encana (ECA-T) which presents a whole new element of risks. Stock appears to be cheap on current production but cheap stocks usually are more expensive than you thought because production does not quite grow at the same pace.


Price:
$2.320
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-03-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart PPY-T Painted Pony Petroleum

Delphi Energy (DEE-T) or Painted Pony (PPY-T)? Doesn’t own either. In terms of natural gas names, he is looking at them potentially having weakness so he wants greater liquidity, meaning larger market as opposed to small caps. Both of these are very good companies. On this one, the key difference is the liquids content of the wells, the amount of condensate and fluids that come along with production making better economics.


Price:
$8.230
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-03-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart PXT-T Parex Resources Inc.

Essentially a pure play in Colombia where they’ve had pretty good drilling success. 18,000 barrels a day and lots of land to drill. The knock against the company has been the very short reserve life, meaning the reservoirs in Colombia are very different from those in Canada. This leads to high productivity in a very short reserve life. The burden on a company to continually add more and more reserves through the drill bit is much higher than it would be in Canada. Since they been so successful last year, they’ve increased their reserve life to 7 from around 4.5, which is a positive. However, it is now trading at a premium to its booked reserve value so you are starting to attribute some value to its exploration, which is fine, but when you contrast this opportunity to some things in Canada, the overall feel of economics is superior in Canada to Colombia. Prefers others.


Price:
$8.960
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart RPL-X (Dead) Renegade Petroleum Ltd.

Being acquired by Spartan (SPE-X) (formerly Alexander Energy) to create Premier Light Oil. Really loves this deal and is really excited about it. This is absolute the best outcome for the shareholders. (See Top Picks.)


Price:
$1.530
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 15 of 689 entries
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3 Comments

petersirie

December 17th 2012 at 6:46pm

Keep up the quality commentary please. I have really appreciated your insight.

boblewellyn@yah

March 16th 2013 at 7:50pm

There is a report that Petrobakken has started a gas injection program that has substantially increased their production and reserves. Stock closed at $9.50 on Friday, March 15, 2013, probably because of this report.

car2nz

April 10th 2014 at 3:12pm

When Eric says BUY...You should be SELLING ...When he says Sell...You should be BUYING. He is consistently WRONG! It's amazing!


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