Director & Portfolio Manager at Private Wealth Management, ScotiaMcleod
Member since: Jun '09 · 3018 Opinions
At the end of Q1, we're nearing 5 straight months of gains with earnings expectations in the US will exceed 10% and 13% for 2025. Good news is market breadth: 80% of the S&P is above its 200-day moving average and 75% of the world MSCI too. Not just tech is rallying. But the RSI is high, so we're overbought. A near-term pause is possible before the next leg up, and healthy. This US presidential cycle could see some volatility this year, but since 1950 every presidential year with a first-time president has never seen a negative return, but 12.2%. The futures market expects three interest rate cuts this year.
Shares are up a few dollars this morning and this issue has been around for a while and so so is baked into the stock. The cards are trading at a premium, but they hold a monopoly. Also, more payments are going from cash to plastic. He likes Visa. Short-term, the economy is recovering and people are travelling, which will benefit the cards. The chart looks great. Still strong.
Since mid-2022, the chart shows higher highs and higher lows. 56% of revenues come from Tim Horton's. The 200-day moving average keeps rising. Offers 9% EPS growth, but at a high 23x forward PE, which is pricey for him. Also, they face competition from the larger McDonald's and Yum Brands.
The dividend is safe and will grow 3-4% annually in coming years. Yields 8.65%. Shares are amazingly back to Covid levels. If you own this, keep holding to collect the dividend. Of course, interest rates have effected high-dividend stocks like the telcos. If shares break below the current, Telus could be entering a new bandwidth, but if it bounces, it could be time to buy.
A CDR lets you bypass any U.S. estate probate tax issues. He owned Pfizer during Covid. Shares have slid since then, below its 200-day moving average. Could be some value at 12x forward PE, but won't touch it.
Like much of the market, it's overbought. Better to buy it at $143, its 50-day moving average. He just trimmed this yesterday. Growth rate is great at 12-15% and 20x PE. Obviously, are the search engine king and YouTube is doing well. AI is burgeoning. Likes it.
Has pushed above its 200-day moving average, unlike other dividend payers like Telus. Pays a 7.5% dividend and they historical increase it. Commodity prices are improving or not worsening. Dip your toe into this.
Covered calls supplement income, but sometimes the underlying security performs better over time. Not in this case, which is rare (ZWU vs ZUT). ZWU pays an 8.5% dividend, including the covered call overlay. Share price has risen since October. Utilities are not a growth area, but bought for cash flow and income. Do you want the yield or growth?
The chart is trending sideways since last June so it's not a good time to enter this. Apple is not in trouble, though. The 200-day moving average is trending slightly sideways. Is concerned with Apple's dependence on iPhone sales (52% of overall revenues). Yes, they are moving into other devices and services. If one major country says it will stem the flow of iPhones, Apple will be in trouble. He expects them to announce AI sometime this year.
Still likes it. Has a global presence. Is not vulnerable to deposit flight. US financials rank #3 or 4 among the 11 sectors this year at 10% total return. Is trending upwards since last October. Pays a 2.6% dividend and trades at 1x price-to-book. The economy is firm, not in recession.
The moving averages are trending higher and up a new leg higher. Has great exposure to a fast-growing Asian market. Pays a 4.9% dividend and cheap at 1.5x price-to-book.
Slowly Gucci sales have hurt and guidance is weak. He exited. Not sure what the future holds. Gucci has sales trouble.
Pays 1.2x price to book. Good. Pays a good dividend of 5.9% and is secure. Can also buy GWO, which is the lion's share of POW.
It's fallen to its 50-day moving average. Whereas Nvidia is overbought, AMD is neutral and slightly better technicals. Long term growth is 34%.
Not a good quarter recently, and shares have fallen below the 200-day moving average. A sign of caution. A fewer store visits, reflecting what customers will spend. In fashion, trends come and go. It's always been a pricey stock in terms of PE, though growth is not bad at 20%. Prefers other names.