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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert)

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Stock Opinions by Keith Richards

COMMENT
"Dumb" money coming into the markets vs. "smart" money leaving.

It's classifying retail investors and their money flow. Not that retail investors are dumb, but that they're traditionally less sophisticated than, say, Warren Buffett. 

We can track money flow by following ETF and mutual fund flows, small lot trades. He pitches that against people like Warren Buffet, Teachers' Pension Plans, and commercial hedgers. Those would be the smart money. When the two are at opposite ends of the confidence levels of who's selling and who's buying, he has leading signals that say perhaps we need to be cautious or we need to be aggressive. If dumb money's selling and smart money's buying, maybe he needs to go in, or vice versa.

There's evidence to show that retail investors get it wrong more often than the pros. He's even written a book on it. There are lots of indicators to look at, like the put/call ratio and the VIX. So when retail investors are bullish, that's a bad thing; and when they're bearish, it's good.

Again, these are leading indicators. When big money is selling and getting out, you want to follow the smart guys. There's a point when they're going to start buying again. When retail people are bidding up, it's not a bad thing since it pushes the market up. But at some point, you hit the point of Greenspan's "irrational exuberance". 

Unknown
COMMENT
Smart money's pulling back from US equities?

Yes, their confidence levels are lower. It's a leading indicator. Doesn't mean that tomorrow the market's going to fall. But it does mean that the market's setting up for a correction, whether it's next week or 3 weeks from now. He's put some charts on his blog, valuetrend.ca. 

Unknown
DON'T BUY
Bank of Nova Scotia

Not overly excited about the Canadian banks for some time. Trying to base. Short-term potential, but not long term. Resistance around $65, now close to that. Don't buy. See his Past Picks.

banks
HOLD

Overbought. Look at the chart and draw a trendline. As with a lot of stocks, has arced up and moved way above its 200-day MA. Good company, but may retreat to the trendline. Don't buy now. If you own it, hold.

computer software / processing
TRADE
Franco-Nevada Corp.

Broke support around $160. Highly likely it's oversold, so could get back to the $160 area. Good shot at a rally. But going to be some challenges getting through that support level. In tech analysis, old support = new resistance.

precious metals
HOLD
Cameco Corporation

Has owned for a long time, rare for him. Consolidating right now. Might see more yo-yo action, but picture is good so far. As long as it doesn't truly break down, he'll stay in. Not a bad point to buy, but may tread water a while.

integrated mines
COMMENT
Consolidating explained.

Things get overbought and they either fall, consolidate for a while like a yo-yo up and down, or go up again. Trends have to take pauses to be healthy. So the story might not be very exciting for a while.

Unknown
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Fairfax Financial

Great company. Hard to argue with an uptrend. Again, it's arced up above trendline. Wouldn't be surprised by a pullback. If it gets closer to trendline, he'd be all over it. But if breaks down below the last low, probably means the uptrend is over and he's out.

insurance
DON'T BUY
Pfizer Inc

Hurting. He considers it in a downtrend, lower highs and lower lows, until proven otherwise. Proof that it's over is you start to see consolidation, little zig-zags on the chart. Could start soon, but hasn't yet.

biotechnology / pharmaceutical
BUY

Broke trendline. At resistance. If breaks $64-65, it'll head to the next resistance level around $79. Could see trouble in short term, but downtrend in general has been broken. Not a bad-looking chart, unlike the one for BNS.

banks
TRADE
Tesla Inc

Big downtrend, but some technical indicators indicate oversold. So it may return to trend, which is higher than it is right now. Could see $220-220 in the near term. Still doesn't like it longer term. He's done a video on his blog.

Consumer Products
TRADE
B2Gold Corp.

Most gold stocks looked good till recently. Support broken. Probably oversold, so may have a bounce. Not today, but maybe soon. The old support level has to be broken before you can get bullish on it. A trade, not an investment.

Golds
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 18/23, Down 2%)

Downtrend, yes, but major support coming plus seasonal period from now to May/June. Might get cheaper, but he's legging in because of bigger-term support on this ETF and on the oil sector. Likes oil for a trade into the spring.

E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 18/23, Down 6%)

Testing breakout and trendline. Small position. Will leg in more as it proves itself.

banks
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 18/23, Up 5%)

He's done 2 legs so far. That's how you should approach a stock, not all in all at once. In an uptrend, resistance coming up. Generally, you don't argue with an uptrend.

contractors
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