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Rick Stuchberry , Sr. VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager

Richardson GMP


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2015-08-31 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets. Thinks we are still in a long-term bull market. These corrections generally take some time to work out. There is a consolidation phase that has to take place and we are into that phase now. Over the next month or so, we will come out of it and will resume the bull market again. Bear markets are caused by recessions and there is no sign of a recession out there. Showed 3 charts.

Chart #1 showed the Fed balance sheet versus household debt (as a percentage of personal income) with numbers going in opposite directions for quite a while. In 2008 the whole US economy sort of collapsed on the back of too much debt in the consumer. The Fed flooded the market with capital, and they are still pushing capital into the system. However, the consumer took the cash and paid down debt. (This was the right thing to do.)

Chart #2 shows the US$ versus commodities. It showed the US$ going up and the CRB commodity Index going down. The strength of the US$ coincided with the weakness in the commodity market. This can get out of whack. You get a real divergence, not based just on supply/demand, but supply/demand caused by a currency that is extraordinary in its movement.

Chart #3 showed the median line with a 1 Std. deviation on either side and a 2 Std. Deviation lines on the outsides. 1997 to 1999, was a period with the Asian currency crisis and it fell off, but wasn’t a major correction. 2001 showed a full blown bear market, and this happened in 2008. We are now back where it looks more like 2012-2013, which was the start of the Greek European crisis. Thinks we are much closer to that scenario where we are in the area of being in a Buy zone. We have sold off enough that some of the discrepancies (the overvaluations) have not been compensated for by the market. The next cycle should be a Growth cycle rather than an Income cycle.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
_N/A
2015-08-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ARX-T Arc Resources Ltd

More gas than oil. It is strategically located if we could ever get any of the gas lines built to the West Coast. They have lots of reserves. Thinks it will pick back up again, but we need a couple of things to happen. We need the energy complex to get some money in it. The sector is cheap. Dividend yield of 6%.


Price:
$19.780
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-31 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart BABA-N Alibaba Group Holding

The numbers are coming in the way he had hoped. He is buying this as a five-year project. They are strategic in what is going to happen in China, and he thinks China is going to be good, not bad. As you convert into a consumer driven economy, as the Chinese are doing, this company is strategically placed for when the Chinese consumer does well. They are very big and mobile.


Price:
$66.120
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-31 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart BAC-N Bank of America

(A Top Pick Sept 23/14. Down 3.3%.) Had been looking better up until we had the last correction about a month or so ago. It will go after this pullback is over. Fundamentals are looking quite good.


Price:
$16.340
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-31 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart BAM.A-T Brookfield Asset Management (A)

The Brookfields are very well-managed companies and he has a lot of respect for them. If you want to participate in this, just wait for a pullback in the price and add to your position.


Price:
$41.410
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-08-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart BBD.B-T Bombardier Inc (B)

They put so much into the C series that it really has to work. He thinks the Québec government would do a lot to help them. It may not be the same company in a year if they can’t get the C series to go. Wait for them to come out and show you the C series is going to work with 350-400 orders, and then it will be a free-for-all to get in it.


Price:
$1.290
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-08-31 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart BNP-T Bonavista Energy Corp

(A Top Pick Sept 23/14. Down 65.56%.) Got stopped out in January. If you are in it, just wait it out. These things will come back. It is more natural gas than anything else. (Has a small bit in his own account.)


Price:
$4.090
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

There is not much more this company can do on the operating side. It has been a spectacular operator. Has reduced its cost by 25%. This is a commodity problem in this company is getting clobbered because the oil price is down. They are low cost producers compared to a lot of others.


Price:
$16.880
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CSCO-Q Cisco

Has been a bit disappointing. Has a good yield, and he feels very secure with the name. It has buckets of cash, so there is no debt issue at all. He is just waiting for the recovery to come after this correction, and he thinks this will get up and go. Likes the yield.


Price:
$25.880
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart EMA-T Emera Inc

If you are in this for yield, you should be safe. If you are in it for growth, you could lighten your holdings. He wouldn’t be opposed to taking a profit and redeploying the assets. This is a safe, stable company.


Price:
$45.560
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-08-31 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart FRU-T Freehold Royalties

Because this is a royalty company, it is dependent on energy prices. If you think energy is going back to $60-$70 and trade positively, these royalty companies are great because they don’t have any operating costs. You need to be bullish on the underlying commodity. If you are not bullish, and he means $60+, then just bide your time. There is no rush to buy these things until they show you a little bit of strength.


Price:
$10.920
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-31 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart GE-N General Electric

They are getting back to their core business. A big industrial leader. They make hydro turbines, jet engines, etc. Getting out of the money business, which is hugely competitive. Dividend yield of 3.71%.


Price:
$24.820
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart IPL-T Inter Pipeline

Sold his holdings some time ago, with the idea that the income stocks were getting a little bit ahead of themselves. With a pullback now, you could certainly look at this and pick it up, especially if you need a yield name in your portfolio. Dividend yield of 5.2%.


Price:
$28.200
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-08-31 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart MFC-T Manulife Financial

(A Top Pick Sept 23/14. Up 1.11%.) Things are performing well on the operating side. They have the Asian unit which should do well. They are in the UK, in the US, and big in Canada.


Price:
$21.380
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-31 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart POU-T Paramount Resources

So much depends on your view of the commodity sector. Unless you are positive on the energy’s complex going forward, you are better to keep your powder dry until things actually start to turn and show you some strength. This is more of a natural gas play, and he likes gas better than oil. The players that are left in the gas market are more likely to have their balance sheets fixed.


Price:
$14.080
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
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