List by First Name |
List by Last Name |
| Date | Signal | Symbol | Company | Opinion | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-16 | N/A | A Commentary | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert |
Markets. In the last week or so, Canadian market has been a little bit rocky but generally over the midterm he is positive on equities. More biased towards US than Canadian equities. A lot of good things going on in the US with an improving situation, particularly with the housing market which is driving a lot of change. Has been moving capital out of Canada and into the US, particularly into things like automotive and housing. Near-term there have been big moves in the US market and a little bit of concern about the short-term divergences with emerging markets and commodities not performing well and yet US markets still near their highs. Even in the US we could be in for a short-term underperformance over the next few months. A 5%-10% pullback would be healthy for the market. He has 30% in cash in the funds that he manages. Tweet finance |
Price: $0.020 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: _N/A |
| 2013-04-16 | N/A | A Commentary | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert |
Gold. After a historic drop like gold has had, the biggest in 33 years, he would just stand back and wait to see what is going to happen. Has a very small position in gold in his funds. When you see that dramatic a drop, it is hard to understand what all the unintended consequences might be, whether it is margin calls, liquidation in gold funds, redemptions of managers who owned too many gold stocks, etc. Tweet finance |
Price: $0.020 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: _N/A |
| 2013-04-16 | HOLD | AD-T | Alaris Royalty |
Sort of a private equity company that buys up old traditional cash flow generating businesses. Those acquisitions have been very accretive for them. About 4.5% yield. Tweet finance |
Price: $28.070 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: Yes |
| 2013-04-16 | COMMENT | AGU-T | Agrium |
Thinks this is getting more interesting with the recent pullback. Janna Partners bid, (big US hedge firm who was trying to get them to spin out one of their businesses) was unsuccessful. As this played out, the stock has come off quite significantly and trades at a pretty low multiple, 10X earnings, and pays a 2% dividend yield. On his radar screen. Could be an interesting name to look at. Tweet finance |
Price: $94.600 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |
| 2013-04-16 | TOP PICK | ANS-T | Ainsworth Lumberf Co. Ltd. |
Pure OSB (oriented strand board). Turnaround story. Had a very levered balance sheet. Brookfield came in and helped them refinance their balance sheet and remains a significant shareholder, so they have good institutional support. Pure play on North American housing because they do not have any exposure to Europe. Trades at a valuation multiple discount to its peers and expects that gap will close. With Brookfield owning 50% of it, maybe there could be a catalyst that may be one of the other larger OSB companies could make a run at it. Tweet finance |
Price: $3.940 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: Yes |
| 2013-04-16 | COMMENT | ATD.B-T | Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) |
Well-run company. Has been very successful consolidating convenience store/gas station businesses. Not cheap. Fairly immune to tougher periods in the economy. Tweet finance |
Price: $57.820 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |
| 2013-04-16 | BUY on WEAKNESS | BAC-N | Bank of America |
Likes the US banking space. This one in particular has a lot of leverage to recovery in the housing market through their mortgage portfolio. Has a very, very small dividend but has potential for increasing dividends over the next couple of years. Tweet finance |
Price: $12.280 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |
| 2013-04-16 | COMMENT | BNS-T | Bank of Nova Scotia |
Has been avoiding Canadian banks in favour of US banks which have traded at lower valuation multiples over the last number of years. Cdn banks have been star performers with much better earnings growth and ROE performance but in his view some of that has been driven by a very robust commodity sector in Canada. These are areas that he thinks we could be seeing some slowdown in. This one, relative to some of the other Canadian banks, is interesting simply because of its exposure to South America, Central America and Mexico. Tweet finance |
Price: $57.700 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |
| 2013-04-16 | DON'T BUY | CCO-T | Cameco Corporation |
Doesn’t own any uranium in his portfolios. There are a lot of other low cost sources of energy and a lot of new technology in other areas of energy that brings in a lower cost supply. Also, uranium is very politically motivated. Hard to figure out how many new reactors China and Japan will be building and if there is the political will to build more nuclear power plants. Tweet finance |
Price: $18.650 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |
| 2013-04-16 | DON'T BUY | CCT-T | Catamaran Corp |
Had a huge, huge move. Very successful but it has grown largely through acquisitions. Any time we have seen companies grow aggressively through acquisitions and are trading at very high valuation multiples, they are typically not ones he would like to own. Usually the acquirers have a misstep on an acquisition. Feels this is priced to perfection. Tweet finance |
Price: $55.620 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |
| 2013-04-16 | PAST TOP PICK | CFP-T | Canfor Corp |
(A Top Pick March 27/12. Up 62.99%.) Sold his holdings in the last couple of months and switched his money into Interfor (?) another Canadian lumber company. Tweet finance |
Price: $19.990 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |
| 2013-04-16 | TOP PICK | DI.UN-T | Dundee International REIT |
One of the few Canadian groups that have made the trek over to Europe to buy real estate. Interesting time to be looking at European assets because of depressed assets. A lot of European funds were formed during the boom and being forced to liquidate portfolios. Because of low cost access to capital and a shrewd management team, Dundee has been able to accumulate a very interesting portfolio of assets in Germany. Owns 293 properties across Germany. Yield of 7.55%. Tweet finance |
Price: $10.620 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: Yes |
| 2013-04-16 | DON'T BUY | FB-Q |
Long ZYNGA (ZNGA-q) and Short Facebook (FB-Q)? A pairs trade that he would probably not put on in his funds. Zunga is interesting but its business model has run into a lot of problems and come under a lot of pressure. One of those sort of failed tech IPOs but is a very beaten up stock. Has quite a bit of cash on their balance sheet. This one, on the other hand, is a really good business, great company but expensive. Has always found with pairs trade that trying to buy a value, kind of “not great” company at a low price and short a really good company at an expensive valuation to play that spread, typically does not work out well. Tweet finance |
Price: $26.920 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |
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| 2013-04-16 | COMMENT | GT-Q | Goodyear Tire |
Doesn’t follow this one closely but it is benefiting from a resurgence in the automotive industry in general. One of the concerns would be input prices although with oil coming down and the positive outlook on automotive and trucking, this could be an interesting play. Tweet finance |
Price: $12.420 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |
| 2013-04-16 | DON'T BUY | HFC-N | Hollyfrontier Corp |
Stock has had a huge move. Primary reason why these companies where benefiting was the big oil differentials as well as resurgence in the US energy supply. As differentials have narrowed, it is going to be harder for these companies to generate the big margins. Tweet finance |
Price: $47.560 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES) Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: No |