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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert)

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Stock Opinions by Gordon Reid

COMMENT
Investors getting used to rates higher for longer?

Yes. Economy is much stronger than most economists predicted and investors expected. Inflation is coming down, but 3% is going to be the new 2%. Target was 2%, but in the end will be satisfied with 3%. 

That last mile of inflation is always stubborn. Central banks have to decide how damaging that incremental 1% is vs. let's let the horse (economy) run. Higher for longer is going to be accepted because the offset, strong economic growth, is just as good if not better.

Unknown
COMMENT
AI will be revolutionary, not just evolutionary?

Yes. It's multi-cycle and multi-year. As you go through the cycle, it's hard to know where you are and if you're even in it. The revolution will challenge the Industrial Revolution in terms of its effect on society and economies. We think of AI as it is today, but it's going to be increasingly impactful day by day.

Estimates give a 1-2% bump in GDP, and these will look low in retrospect. Tremendous opportunity.

Unknown
COMMENT
Markets are looking overbought?

Markets ebb and flow, spending very little time in fair value territory. They're either somewhat overbought or oversold. Trying to predict that, and especially trying to trade that, is extremely difficult. Most investors who try to do that end up net losers in the end. They sell too early, and then it's difficult psychologically to get back in once something keeps rallying.

For that portion that you have dedicated to equities, his advice is simple. Stay invested, don't worry about the ebbs and flows, keep your eye on the horizon, and you'll do well over the long term.

Unknown
RISKY
Whirlpool Corp

Stay-at-home impact wore off. Mismanagement plus bad luck. Inexpensive 7x earnings, speculative buying opportunity if economy does well. Don't bet the farm. It will either be a win or a loss. Great dividend yield of 6.5%. Alluring, but 80% payout ratio, so be careful. If not working out, hit the exit quickly.

household goods
WEAK BUY
Altria Group Inc

Dividend play for the yield of around 9%, safe, grown for 53 years straight. You don't buy it for growth or for its fabulous future. Revenue, earnings, cashflow are relatively predictable. Trades between $40-50 pretty consistently. Not a terrible time to enter.

tobacco
BUY
WEX Inc

In his US small-cap portfolio. Payment platform. Tracking technology for transportation industries, eliminating time sheets and fuel receipts. Trades with oil prices.

other services
BUY
Uber

In his US large-cap portfolio. Now profitable, included in the S&P, which brings in a lot of passive and ETF investment. Now in freight (which may not last). Burgeoning ad business. Scaling quickly, normalized valuations should follow quickly too.

Technology
DON'T BUY

Most of business is with government. Big data. Extreme valuations of around 9x revenue, so a lot of future optimism already built in. Doesn't fit his conservative client profile.

Technology
DON'T BUY

High flyer because of Hep C, so successful it isn't needed on an ongoing basis. Its HIV drug was equally successful. Ironically, success impacted growth of those drugs negatively. Decent dividend. 

biotechnology / pharmaceutical
COMMENT
Five company attributes to invest with confidence.

See blog under Insights at goodreid.com. You have to balance all the attributes in making your investment decisions. Profitability, growth. Also dividend yield. Worst case is to get into a growth company that's paying a high dividend just to keep you around. They're not fulfilling their primary mandate of being a growth company.

Big difference between liking a product and buying its stock. You have to investigate what the value of that stock is. There might be way too much already built into the price for what you're getting.

For each stock, he creates bands of normal trading for the high and low ends of a cycle. When it pokes its head through the top end of the upper band, he asks some serious questions. If not comfortable with the answers, he sells.

Unknown
SELL
Walt Disney Co.

Lots of issues. Streaming has proven to be an expensive endeavour, NFLX won that race. Parks franchises are waning, needing big capex. Cash-strapped. Competition is fierce. Activist ruckus. Verbal bun fight over X (Twitter). Investors get trapped by warm and fuzzy legacy feelings. Better choices out there.

entertainment services
SELL
Novo-Nordisk

Big difference between a company and a stock. It's like buying a jacket for different price points of $1000, $300, or on sale for $150. You make an investment/purchase decision. 

LLY and NVO are great companies, but you have to look at how expensive they are. Quite expensive at around 50x earnings. Good growth rates. A reasonable multiple for a drug company is sub-20x, and these won't get there via discounted cashflow until next decade. That's a long way out.

He looks for things that have yet to be priced properly. He owns MRK.

biotechnology / pharmaceutical
SELL
Eli Lilly & Co.

Big difference between a company and a stock. It's like buying a jacket for different price points of $1000, $300, or on sale for $150. You make an investment/purchase decision. 

LLY and NVO are great companies, but you have to look at how expensive they are. Quite expensive at around 50x earnings. Good growth rates. A reasonable multiple for a drug company is sub-20x, and these won't get there via discounted cashflow until next decade. That's a long way out.

He looks for things that have yet to be priced properly. He owns MRK.

biotechnology / pharmaceutical
WATCH
Pfizer Inc

Starting to look at it. Just made an acquisition. Growth rates starting to accelerate.

biotechnology / pharmaceutical
PAST TOP PICK
Adobe Systems
(A Top Pick Feb 16/23, Up 59%)

One of the first adopters of AI with Firefly. Mind-blowing commercial productivity application. Trading in low 30s x earnings, with growth still in high teens. Despite runup, still good value and still buying.

computer software / processing
Showing 1 to 15 of 3,563 entries