Chief Portfolio Manager & Founder at Castlemoore Inc.
Member since: Jan '07 · 2255 Opinions
He's been saying that stocks are looking tired, thought the S&P has broken out and made a new high, thanks to Nvidia. According to the equal-weight index, the rally is getting narrower. Also, historical patterns during US election years show that January and February are lumpy and flat, then the market dip in mid/late March. Given this year, he forecasts that dip to happen in April. Nvidia has pushed it all out. As for the US 10-year yield, will it make another run to back to 5%. Tech remains interest-rate sensitive, though Nvidia is insulated.
Just because it's gone parabolic, it doesn't mean it will fall back to $400 for those who missed it. Tech remains interest-rate sensitive, though Nvidia is insulated.
If you like a stock long-term and fundamentally and you target a 3% portfolio weighting (i.e. Berkshire-Hathaway), buy that 1.5% on the day you decide it's a good stock. For the second tranche, look at previous lows, like $360 for Berkshire B. But there's the chance it will not return to that low. As times goes by, you can buy that second half; you would have made some gains by then. The riskiest day to buy a stock is the first day you buy it.
Energy looks good in recent days. The current low is interesting and similar to one in early 2023; share are climbing currently. In the last 2 weeks, Baytex has outperformed the S&P. The energy sector looks good.
Jumping a massive 10% today on the news, and returning to its previous high. A positive move.
That's the problem with the stalwart stocks, unlike a small company. AEM'S 5-year chart beats gold by 12%. The gold outlook is healthy. If AEM leads to the downside, a problem in the commodity will emerge later.
Currently at $200, which is the same level as late and early 2022, an area of interest. If you own no aerospace, defence or industrials now is a good time to buy, and you can add if it falls another 10% to $180.
Take note of its high at the very end of 2021 at $480, and the stock is just below that now. If you want to enter, do it now with a tranche, then add another tranche past $480.
He's bullish energy, but there are better names in this space, like Pembina and Altagas. TRP's resistance is at $76 back in mid-2022. The chart shows a sharp downward trend.
He's been adding to this. The 1-year chart has been upward, though a little choppy, now at highs. Has strong upside in intelligence analytics, energy transition and space exploration. Are focused in water solutions and transportation infrastructure, so they will benefit massively from the US infrastructure bill.
The whole natural gas sector will get frothy from buyouts and valuations. TOU is an undervalued stock in an undervalued sector. Could be volatility around their March 6 report, but this is a buying opportunity. Wait till March 6. Targets 60% upside from here.
Get good asset managers like this, BAM or BRK. It's a pretty good chart. Definitely buy a position today. They will benefit from dislocations from interest rate moves. These managers buy when times are bad (and assets are cheap).
$8 was a great buy. Support at $11.62, and if it breaks that, it could return to $8. Short-term, NFI looks good with this upswing and the wider market momentum. He doesn't know NFI's stock history, its fall from $60 to $8 (supply chain problems), but long-term there's weakness. The easy money has been made. Take 50% profits.
It trades at less than half its 2021 peak, but has been trending higher for the past 18 months, outpacing the S&P. Now, it's starting to struggle against the S&P and could be downside around $82. If you're unsure, sell half your holding.
The telco space isn't exciting and there are better sectors. BCE peaked around $75 in January 2022 and has been a waterfall down since. He'd be concerned if this broke below $49-50; holding it for the dividend is not enough.