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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  There is some good and some bad with the change of government in Alberta.  They are going to up the royalties and taxes.  When he looks at ETFs he likes the energy sector, he sees a 5-10% correction coming.  The market is not finished worrying about the new government in Alberta.  China is going to do whatever they can as they have some growth challenges.  They have some real issues for a number of years.  The stock market rally has nothing to do with economic outlook, but is purely speculation.  The PEK-N tracks China.  It has more than doubled in a year.  The spreads are terrible in this one so it is not good for getting in and out, but it tracks the Chinese stock market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

TFSAs: Can you only have 5% in any one security in a TFSA as Larry recommends in general?  This does not apply to ETFs.  If you have 20 holdings in a $40k account, you are looking at $2k per holding and at 9.95 per trade it is very expensive.  So don’t use single securities, but rather use ETFs.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

BMO is the largest provider of ETFs in Canada.  Google “BMO ETFs” and it will show you how to use them in portfolios.  Advisors with big banks should have no trouble buying ETFs from other banks for your portfolio.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gov’t of Canada Bonds – ETFs containing short, medium and long bonds.  He thinks rates will stay low for the next decade.  Central banks are printing money everywhere and it is not generating inflation.  It tells us that the aging demographic is a far more influential factor to the inflation story than the printing of money.  See education segment of today’s show.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Preferred Shares.  Perpetuals will fall when interest rates rise, but resets will come back as they reset.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Fixed Income.  There are 4 ETFs he wants to focus on.  In the following table ‘Duration’ is the sensitivity to interest rates.

Ticker

MER

YTM

Duration

VBU

0.20%

2.0%

5.6

VGB

0.35%

0.9%

7.4

ZEF

0.50%

5.9%

7.7

XBB

0.30%

2.0%

7.3

The 10 year German bond is at 0.57% and Greek 2 year is 20.16%.  Canadian 30 year is 2.29%.  Now look at a 1% move up in interest rates:

  • The German bond moves 10.5bps
  • The Greek bond moves 50.6bps.
  • The Canadian bond moves only 5bps.

The longer your duration, the less sensitive they are to interest rate increases.  Dividend stocks have tremendous volatility to interest rates (twice the standard deviation).  Increasing bonds reduced volatility to a portfolio dramatically.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-11 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart CWB-T Canadian Western Bank

It tends to be levered to the success of Alberta and Western Canada.  This one took a hard hit when oil prices rolled over.  You have to ask if oil has bottomed.  He thinks it will range between $40 and $65.  If it gets near the lows it makes sense to accumulate, but don’t expect a massive recovery.


Price:
$29.420
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-11 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart MA-N Mastercard Inc.

It has 27 time earnings and should become mature at some point and then the multiple drops to 20 or 18.  He is worried this one won’t retain its multiple much longer.  The stock has done nothing wrong.  If it fails to make a new high and then starts to break trend line and make lower lows, then you can predict the multiple is going to contract.  A lower multiple means at least lower appreciation in stock price.


Price:
$92.520
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-11 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart UA-N Under Armour

You can’t look at the multiple, but rather should look at the peg ratio, which is over 3, so you are paying a lot.  When or if they start to disappoint, which they are not currently, this can cut in half in 6 months and you have to consider that.  Use tight stops.  It could keep going for a couple of years before going down. 


Price:
$78.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-04 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Stops.  He loves ETFs for diversification.  With a single stock you tend to fall in love with it and average down.  You never want to have more than 5% in any one security, otherwise you are gambling.  Take SU-T.  A recent low was $29.  A recent high was $40.  At $39, you have 4 or 5% upside.  Back in 2012, it was in the mid $20s.  You have 8% downside and 4% upside.  At $35, you have a much better risk reward ratio.  Move in slowly and if it ever goes below your stop, get out.  Don’t average down.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-04 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Emerging Market Fund.  They are about 12% of the world.  7.2% would be an equal wait for a balanced portfolio.  ZEM-T or EEM-N are example funds.  He thinks they are at the high end of the range so he is at half weight.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-04 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Greece will likely have the money for their debt payment later this month.  But nothing has been fixed here.  It doesn’t matter if Greece leaves the Euro.  Their economy is not big enough to matter.  He thinks the debt holders will take a big haircut.  Over 5-10 years other countries will line up to leave the Euro.  Greece is the test case.  China released the weakest numbers in a year, but the money is coming out of real estate.  You don’t want to play China at this point.  We could get a pull back in China in the back half of this year as much as 30%. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-04 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart AAPL-Q Apple

Thinks it will go higher.  He does not know if the iWatch will be successful, however.  He is more concerned about market risk in the back half of the year so he does not like to look at stock at all time highs.  Don’t chase it here.  Don’t put new money into it.


Price:
$128.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-04 BUY Must be logged in to use chart BNP-T Bonavista Energy Corp

It looks like we are making a bottom.  We are in accumulation mode.  Get out if you see lower lows.


Price:
$8.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-04 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart CSX-N CSX Corp

Close to its all time high.  He is not a big fan of it in May.  Be patient and look for a buying opportunity later in the year, close to $30.


Price:
$36.610
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 15 of 1,517 entries
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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