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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2015-04-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

US$. Where there are free-flowing currencies, and countries have to repay interest and the notional value of the bond in US dollars, it is going to be a lot more expensive for them. This will likely cause some credit stress over the next year or so. He is pretty sure the dollar is going to remain strong over the next year or so versus most currencies, specifically the euro and the yen. For the first time ever, Chinese estate values are going down. Money has been coming out of there to feed the stock market. Chinese mainland stocks have doubled over the last year or so, more importantly the last 6 months. Margin requirements were raised on Friday, but to combat that a shift in the reserve ratios to kind of neutralize things, the market seem to be a little positive this morning that there is no worsening in the Greek situation. Year-on-year earnings are declining, most of it, not all, is coming from the energy sector. He expects this for the next number of quarters.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS, BONDS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-04-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Fixed Income Suggestions. There are a couple of things to consider. You have credit risks. Corporate bonds, with the worse quality of these being high-yield or junk bonds. You will get a much higher yield, but those correlate a lot more with equity returns than they do with bond returns in general. If you don’t want a lot of interest rate risks, then a short term, 1 to 5 year laddered bond portfolio. All of the providers have them. If you fear that credit might be a problem at some point, then you want something with a bit longer duration on the government side. If stocks fall, government bonds will tend to do well. Longer  maturities tend to do better than shorter ones when you have a flight to safety.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS, BONDS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-20 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold. At $1150, he kind of likes some exposure to gold. If you are going to hold gold for a long period of time, you are probably better holding gold equities, as gold bullion yields nothing. If you are thinking about trading, ETF’s are fine for that. He would suggest 5% or 10% in your portfolio.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS, BONDS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Natural gas ETF, based on an outlook prices will increase in 3-5 years. There are 2 ways to play this. In the US FCG-N is the large cap natural gas weighted ETF of the companies. You get a dividend on this. In Canada ZJN-T is the Junior natural gas weighted ETF. If you have a 3 to 5 year view, do not even remotely consider any ETF’s linked to the underlying commodity. The underlying NAV erosion, over a long period of time, could be toxic.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS, BONDS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Greece. We are now in Act III of the Greek tragedy. No one knows for sure how this is going to play out. For a German taxpayer, who has just had his retirement age raised to 67, to use his tax dollars for his government to fund Greece, where a guy there retires at 55, it doesn’t add up. Feels it ultimately comes apart, but the pride in Europe is really strong and they are going to try to keep it together. A chart showing capital outflows as a percentage of GDP in Greece shows the intensity in the last 6 months is far greater than in previous ones. People with money in the banks in Cyprus actually lost money on their deposits. This is why money is fleeing Greece. About a year ago, Greece was able to come back to the bond market and issue bonds. They issued a 3 year bond at 3.38 which is currently yielding 27%. That is pricing in over a 50% chance of default. The European bank Index is still 60% below its peak before the crisis of 2008-2009. We are back up to the levels where we had seen problems. The vast majority of European banks failed the stress tests. He doesn’t think a QE is going to help and fix this.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS, BONDS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-04-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZDY-T BMO US Dividend ETF

This is a smart Index where they take the Russell 1000, top 100 quality US stocks on a dividend basis equal weighted. A dividend payer of around 3% in the US. It is going to trade very similar to what the S&P 500 does to the Dow. Wouldn’t be surprised if we end of the year at 2100, right about where we are now. If it is sideways, and maybe a little lower, you want to have more focus on dividends in your portfolio, because it is a bit more defensive way of playing the market. A complement to that could be the Dow with a covered call, which would hedge your currency.


Price:
$22.590
Subject:
STOCKS, BONDS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPR-T BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred

These reset preferreds are linked to the 5 year bond. So when the reset provisions come into play, if the bond yield is much lower, then the new coupon payment is going to be a lot less on the preferreds. They are more linked to fixed income than they are to equities. So if equity markets fall 10% on a correction, preferreds might fall 1%-2%, or sometimes they might go up depending on what is happening to interest rates at the time. They are a good diversifier because of this to get yield. He uses it by increasing his preferred exposure versus common. For example ZDV-T is the way to play high dividends in the Canadian market, which is 50 of the best dividend payers. When he fears the risk on the common shares, he wants a little more exposure to ZPR and when he feels the outlook is more for growth, he wants more ZDV. Meanwhile they both yield him more than 4% and it is a nice way to get Canadian tax efficient dividends in your taxable portfolio.


Price:
$12.040
Subject:
STOCKS, BONDS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

China. This speaks to the US$. For many, many years, because of all the dollars they got through trade, they were the biggest buyer of US treasuries. A couple of years ago, they backed off and said that they weren’t interested in treasuries anymore. With them missing their numbers, we are all concerned. Very concerned about real estate prices now starting to fall there. They are going to do 7% growth because they are going to engineer it. He thinks China has got to be slowing to 4%-5%. That will ultimately come out in trade numbers.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-04-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

US Dollar. When you look internationally at investment returns, currencies are a big, big factor. The dynamics that are going on in the marketplace right now, between the Fed contemplating tightening, Bank of Canada easing, Europeans just starting their QE, Japan continuing their QE, when you look at that and only that, you can get a real sense that the US$ is going to continue to get stronger. There is about $9 trillion worth of global debt from foreign countries and corporations pegged to the US$. So if the US$ gets stronger, for them to repay that, there is an added pressure for demand for dollars. All of these things combined over the next year probably keep the US$ on the stronger side. Never listen to what Central Banks are doing, they are almost always wrong.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-04-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

US Earnings. We are expecting a little bit of weakness this quarter. A lot of that has been discounted already. The 1st part of earnings, the banking side, people are expecting them to be a little bit better. Banks tend to report at the front end of earnings season, and that tends to be a bit more positive. The real risk comes towards the back end of earnings’ season as we get into late April and early May.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-04-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Hedged versus non-hedged ETF’s. You have to make a bit of a market call to know which one to do at any point in time. What we do understand from currencies is that they are a very low correlation generally with equity markets. If the view for the next year or so is that the US$ is going to continue to get weaker, the  Cdn$ probably doesn’t get past $1.30-$1.33. The Cdn$ is currently sitting at around $1.26. You want to be hedged. When the Cdn$ comes back, you want to be more hedged.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-04-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Why are leveraged ETF’s not recommended for longer-term investing? In a leveraged ETF, if the market goes up 1 day, they are buying higher. If the next day is going down, it is selling lower. So every day that it goes up and down you are buying high and selling low. That is a formula for disaster in the long run. When you look at any ETF, it doesn’t matter what it is, the more volatile it is over time, the worst that leverage embedded in the ETF is. Great for short-term trading such as a couple of weeks, even a couple of months, but you have to get the direction right. MER’s typically fall in at around 1%, so shouldn’t be a major consideration.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-04-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart DOL-T Dollarama Inc.

Still in growth mode. Trading on a trailing basis about 33X earnings, and on a forward basis at about 28X earnings. When you get into a phase where the market loves a story and loves the growth, there is no good way to value it. As some point, when that growth slows or ends, you are going to get a big multiple contraction. A stock like this doesn’t have terribly high margins, and when there is a growth issue, you are going to start trading at a market multiple, which right now would be at about 18X earnings. Technically, if it starts making lower lows and lower highs, that is when you know the multiple contraction is likely setting in. As long as it keeps having higher highs and higher lows, you can probably stay with it.


Price:
$72.430
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart IYW-N iShares Dow Jones Technology E.T.F.

This is one of the better ETF’s in pure play technology. It is based on the Dow Jones indexes series of indexes, but it goes from large all the way down to smaller cap type holdings. This one is the broadest measure of holdings that you can get, and probably the better way of playing it.


Price:
$106.190
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart VXC-T Vanguard FTSE All-World ex Canada

Vanguard FTSE All-World ex Canada (VXC-T) or iShare Core MSCI World of Canada (XAW-T) for an RRSP? You have to focus on global investing. Canada is only 4% of the world. A Canadian’s portfolio, on average, is going to have 50% or more exposure to Canada, and that makes sense only when energy is doing well. That is the biggest swing factor in the Canadian marketplace. These are 2 great ETF’s. They give you basically the entire world outside of the US. This one is a little more focused on larger caps where the Ishare version is all-inclusive.


Price:
$30.060
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 15 of 1,494 entries
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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