Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The sentiment on the street regarding the failure to launch the repeal of the health care act is that the tax changes will also be tough.  The big interest is in the mid-term election in 2018.  If it is not attached to a budget then nothing is going to get done.  The most logical thing is for the market to sell off to where it was before the Trump election.  This morning there are dip buyers coming in.  He thinks through April we will continue to drift lower to where we were before the Trump election.  It is the physiology about how markets work. You have to test the confidence.  He did not adjust positions on Friday because he expected it to fail.  There is major execution risk with Trump policy.


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  It is the 10th year anniversary of the show.  He often gets the comment that he is always bearish.  But he thinks he is optimistic.  He looks at the risk side before the returns side of investing.  Beta is the sensitivity to the market risk.  When he is considering buying anything he thinks about the risk index.  ZEB-T graph compared to the world index looked at the weekly return and then he finds the trend.  The slope of .65 tells him the sensitivity to the world index.  At this level about 50% is related to sector risk.  He decides how much of the decision relates to the world, or to sector or to the specific stock.  XEG-T is the Canadian energy sector, compared to the world it is more sloped, meaning it is more risky.  He needs to weigh the macro factors more in this case.  SU-T has a lower correlation to the energy sector because there is less risk and that is because of their refining business.  Energy is starting to look interesting now.


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ALA-T Altagas Ltd

6.8% is a pretty high yield.  If the outlook for Nat Gas is going to be suppressed for the next couple of years then the dividend is at risk.


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 SPECULATIVE BUY Must be logged in to use chart BTL-T BTL Group Ltd.

Within 20 years the world will be paperless in terms of currency.  Central banks and governments are absolutely broke.  Getting rid of the grey economy would really help.  When there is no cash in the system it eliminates all that.  This is one of the earliest types of this process.  It is an interesting concept.


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HHL-T Healthcare Leaders Income Fund

The US healthcare bill having failed Friday puts some risk into the sector.  He would be fine if it fell back to support levels but would not step in today, otherwise it is a fine quality holding.


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HRT-T Harte Gold Corp

They have never had any revenue.  Nobody knows what will happen so they are speculative.  He thinks gold will have a rally up to $1350 if we go unto uncertain on the equity market.  ZJG-T is a junior gold ETF and a better way to play it.


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart TD-T Toronto Dominion

He is cautious on banks as they are starting to pull back.  If we go through a period of uncertainty, all these stocks come back to where they broke out from, otherwise he is comfortable buying here.


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZLE-T BMO Low Volatility Emerging Markets Equity

You typically get one payout a year from emerging market ETFs.  Generally emerging markets pay out a larger dividend.  He would look for the distribution to settle out at about 2%.  The difference between this and VEE-T is that is it is low volatility. 


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

Covered call banks but ZWC-T covers more economic sectors.  Banks are 21% of the TSX and are that potion of ZWC-T.


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

It is a broad, European, covered call strategy.  It could easily fall 10-15% minimum.  Don’t put new money to work here now.  Europe overall is pretty cheap, however. 


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

G20 Statement. Although tepid, he thinks they are supporting free trade, but probably under a lot of duress from the first real official global meeting with the Trump policy being pushed towards the world. The US is the biggest economy in the world, so what they want tends to typically happen. This is why markets were concerned about the anti-trade, and the original reason why futures market sold off aggressively the night of the election. It is concerning. However, it is not measured in weeks and days or the next tick on the chart; it is a long-term strategic policy. While he is very optimistic and bullish on the need for lower taxes overall, he is concerned about the lack of trade. However, we have seen slower trade globally. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index and the freight rates that are being charged, they have been in a slow decline for years, so it is not anything new. If the biggest economy, the US, is not participating, there will be less trade globally. The US has a surplus against Canada and are not really fighting us, but they’ve made strong statements on softwood lumber as an example. They have a deficit against Mexico, which is where they want to improve and bring stuff and make America great again, and America 1st. We are going to see lots of this for years to come.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Crude oil. He is not bearish in that we are going back to the $20s, but he wants to see what OPEC is going to do. There is some compliance, but it is Saudi Arabia that is more compliant than a lot of the other partners. There is some weakness in OPEC, which is what he expected. Oil shouldn’t be at $55, but should probably be closer to $45.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

BREXIT. The biggest thing from their perspective is, what does Scotland do. Scotland wants to hold a referendum in late 2018 or early 2019. Once they go through the two-year period of the negotiations to either stay or not stay, it is a mess. We haven’t felt one iota of economic impact in terms of trade, etc., and we probably won’t know for a year, or maybe 2, on how this plays out. It does speak to the fact that the UK and the EU doesn’t work, and eventually it is going to start coming apart. This is just the beginning.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors with the best value right now? A couple of weeks ago, low volatility areas had been underperforming significantly. Markets have been strong since the Trump election, up 10%, 15%, 20% depending on where you look and what sectors. Low volatility sectors like utilities, consumer staples have underperformed. Those sectors, right now, screen as cheap because they are much more defensive. What typically happens with fund managers, is when they are positive on the outlook for the market, they are investing in more cyclicals; whether consumer, industrial or technology, companies that are going to get much more of a beta lift when the markets are doing well. When the markets are expected to correct, they can’t go to cash, most managers have to stay fully invested. They sell their consumer cyclical and they buy a consumer staple; they sell their industrial and buy a health care; sell their financial and buy a utility. This takes down their beta or their sensitivity to the downside. The low volume sectors are somewhat attractive right now compared to some of the more cyclical sectors.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors you like and dislike? Real estate is interest rate sensitive, so not his favourite right now. He is underweight. What is really cheap? A couple of days ago, gold was cheap and he was nibbling in this sector. However, if you are talking about a strategy for the long-term, the next 2, 3, 5 years, financials in the US are still pretty cheap. When he is tactical, and moving money around pretty actively, he is looking out 3 months, maybe 6. He has no idea what is going to happen 4 or 5 years from now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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