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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2015-05-25 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Agriculture and Infrastructure ETFs – Are they truly global?  Every sector is going to have its day.  Then you have periods where they underperform.  If you want to buy the world then buy VT-N and Agriculture and infrastructure are included.  You can go into a sector specific ETF (e.g. MOO-N and COW-T (77% US exposure)) if you think a sector is going to do better.  These particular sectors will get decimated when bond stocks compete with dividends.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-25 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Greece.  Will they make their IMF payment?  It is going down to the short strings in terms of negotiations.  He feels the whole world is prepared for a deal NOT to get done.  It will be disruptive for a while, however. Other countries might consider leaving the Euro. The UK is lining up for 2017 for a referendum on leaving it.  He believes the Economic union is not working. The Euro might start to get stronger as countries leave it. There are questions about where the US will land in terms of their growth.  The number of experts that don’t know what to do is as high as it has ever been.  He thinks we will have low interest rates for years and years.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-25 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  The US$.  The trend line on a chart of US vs. Canadian $ from 1967 suggests it is not over.  The catalysts for this will likely last a long time.  The US dollar was almost this low compared to the Canadian $ in 2008, but what is the catalyst to make the situation worse?  He doesn’t see one.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-25 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart BPY.UN-T Brookfield Property Partners

The recent move down bounced off a 200 day moving average.  But we have to consider the trend of lower lows and lower highs in this one.  For now, the interest sensitive stocks like this one have had pullbacks.  XRE-T, the capped REIT ETF is overweight, but the BMO version is equal weight and has done better.  He is underweight REITs right now.  He would wait for the latter half of the year to buy REITs.


Price:
$28.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-25 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CGL-T iShares Gold Bullion ETF

Gold.  CGL-T is a way to hold gold bullion, but hedge the Canadian dollar.  The mining sector is dirt cheap.  Below $1175 be wants to own it and will sell by $1225.  If inflation starts to kick in, then gold will shine again but you don’t play for that today.


Price:
$10.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-25 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart IBB-Q iShares Nasdaq BioTech ETF

Biotechs mostly don’t pay dividends.  When you get into a growth and momentum trade and the stock has doubled in a year or two, then it is not sustainable.  He feels there is no value here.  Look to take money off the table at some point, not put money in.


Price:
$364.540
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  There is some good and some bad with the change of government in Alberta.  They are going to up the royalties and taxes.  When he looks at ETFs he likes the energy sector, he sees a 5-10% correction coming.  The market is not finished worrying about the new government in Alberta.  China is going to do whatever they can as they have some growth challenges.  They have some real issues for a number of years.  The stock market rally has nothing to do with economic outlook, but is purely speculation.  The PEK-N tracks China.  It has more than doubled in a year.  The spreads are terrible in this one so it is not good for getting in and out, but it tracks the Chinese stock market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

TFSAs: Can you only have 5% in any one security in a TFSA as Larry recommends in general?  This does not apply to ETFs.  If you have 20 holdings in a $40k account, you are looking at $2k per holding and at 9.95 per trade it is very expensive.  So don’t use single securities, but rather use ETFs.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

BMO is the largest provider of ETFs in Canada.  Google “BMO ETFs” and it will show you how to use them in portfolios.  Advisors with big banks should have no trouble buying ETFs from other banks for your portfolio.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gov’t of Canada Bonds – ETFs containing short, medium and long bonds.  He thinks rates will stay low for the next decade.  Central banks are printing money everywhere and it is not generating inflation.  It tells us that the aging demographic is a far more influential factor to the inflation story than the printing of money.  See education segment of today’s show.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Preferred Shares.  Perpetuals will fall when interest rates rise, but resets will come back as they reset.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2015-05-11 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Fixed Income.  There are 4 ETFs he wants to focus on.  In the following table ‘Duration’ is the sensitivity to interest rates.

Ticker

MER

YTM

Duration

VBU

0.20%

2.0%

5.6

VGB

0.35%

0.9%

7.4

ZEF

0.50%

5.9%

7.7

XBB

0.30%

2.0%

7.3

The 10 year German bond is at 0.57% and Greek 2 year is 20.16%.  Canadian 30 year is 2.29%.  Now look at a 1% move up in interest rates:

  • The German bond moves 10.5bps
  • The Greek bond moves 50.6bps.
  • The Canadian bond moves only 5bps.

The longer your duration, the less sensitive they are to interest rate increases.  Dividend stocks have tremendous volatility to interest rates (twice the standard deviation).  Increasing bonds reduced volatility to a portfolio dramatically.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-11 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart CWB-T Canadian Western Bank

It tends to be levered to the success of Alberta and Western Canada.  This one took a hard hit when oil prices rolled over.  You have to ask if oil has bottomed.  He thinks it will range between $40 and $65.  If it gets near the lows it makes sense to accumulate, but don’t expect a massive recovery.


Price:
$29.420
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-11 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart MA-N Mastercard Inc.

It has 27 time earnings and should become mature at some point and then the multiple drops to 20 or 18.  He is worried this one won’t retain its multiple much longer.  The stock has done nothing wrong.  If it fails to make a new high and then starts to break trend line and make lower lows, then you can predict the multiple is going to contract.  A lower multiple means at least lower appreciation in stock price.


Price:
$92.520
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-11 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart UA-N Under Armour

You can’t look at the multiple, but rather should look at the peg ratio, which is over 3, so you are paying a lot.  When or if they start to disappoint, which they are not currently, this can cut in half in 6 months and you have to consider that.  Use tight stops.  It could keep going for a couple of years before going down. 


Price:
$78.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 15 of 1,523 entries
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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