Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2016-11-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

OPEC. There’s going to be a deal, but the deal is going to be to freeze production, not cut production. The history of OPEC is that they always cheat, and there is basically no chance in his mind, that even if they agree to a ceiling at 33 million barrels, that they adhere to it. It is all about demand, so is global demand in a slowing world going to increase? OECD has said that the world is going to grow a little bit better because we are no longer austerity driven, but we are driven by spending. The GDP formula is GDP=C+1+G(X-M). When the government borrows and spends like they expect to on infrastructure, mathematically GDP is going to go up, but here’s the thing with the consumer (C). His average client is probably around 60 years old, and their financial plan indicates their money is going to last 30 to 35 years. It doesn’t matter how low interest rates get or how much the government is going to spend, aggregate demand (G) is not going up, as people are living longer. This demographic headwind that we are facing is going to be really toxic for growth for the next decade and decades to come. Increasing government spending is only going to add on to the debt. That is another massive headwind. We have some very difficult economic challenges going forward.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil. An OPEC Expectations chart shows that 12 months’ forward oil prices is really going to struggle to get through $50. As soon as we get up to $50 you are going to see a lot of Forward Selling next year, which ramps up supply.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Cdn Banks. Right now, the banks have a lot of tailwinds because of the perception that interest rates are going up, but he believes that the Fed will raise rates in December and the Bank of Canada is on hold. The next move after that will be a rate cut by both the bank of Canada and the Fed, not a rate increase.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

US ETF’s for an RRSP portfolio? He holds the BMO US Put Write (ZPW-T), where they are writing on great companies and writing Puts 15%-20% below the market, and are harvesting about a 7%+ yield per year. On the other side of that, he owns the BMO Covered Call Utilities (ZWH-T) which looks at some of the best quality dividend payers in the US, and writes a covered call strategy on half that, generating around 6%. The combination of those 2 exposures to the US market gives him a yield of 6.5%, and a risk of about 30% of the S&P 500. He thinks that is the absolute best way to get exposure today.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

REITs, utilities and preferred shares for a 5% return for a Buy and Hold investor? From time to time, interest rate sensitive sectors get hurt. He likes BMO Equal Weight REITs Index Cdn (ZRE-T), BMO Covered Call Utilities (ZWU-T) which is yielding over 7%. He has a half position in each one, and has recently been adding to this.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Dividend ETF’s? Like all the factors in the smart Beta products, dividends are the most widely known for the average investor, and maybe 2nd to value as a way to play the markets. Sometimes dividend stocks do really, really well, and sometimes they don’t. Right now, if you look at a lot of the dividend indexes, they’ve had decent performance. He doesn’t like the relative value today, and would be underweight dividend stocks at the moment.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF for US regional banks in Canadian funds? The BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged to Cdn (ZUB-T) plays a lot of the regionals, but some of the larger ones as well. If you want the pure Regional ETF, SPDR S&P Regional Banking (KRE-N) has many of the ones that the BMO has, but doesn’t have a lot of the big ones.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

How maximum diversification works. This process gathers a basket of stocks that helps you to diversify as much as can be done, and still get exposure to the index. He focuses on correlation. He starts with the same universe as the Market Cap Benchmark, but what the formula looks most closely at is correlations. He will assemble a portfolio that uses the securities outside of the starting universe, that have the lowest possible correlation to each other. When you are able to assemble a portfolio in that way, it will be the most diversified portfolio that you can create of a given universe. One of the goals is to generate a higher return, but also deliberate with less volatility. The MER on this is 60 basis points, but you’re getting a much better ride. Not only is this less volatile, but it is better performing than the market cap benchmark over a full market cycle by a meaningful amount. He is equally exposed to all of the risk factors in the market. (By Faizan Dhanani, Managing Dir. for TOBAM, Mackenzie Investments.)


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 PARTIAL BUY Must be logged in to use chart AQN-T Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp

He loves the alternative energy space. Over time we are going to have less carbon, and we are not going back to coal fired plants and dirty energy. The world is aiming to get cleaner. A company like this, that focuses on renewables, should do very well in the very long run. Looking at earnings and the multiple, it is a little bit expensive. At the current price, it looks very attractive. He would nibble away at this.


Price:
$10.780
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CPD-T iShares S&P/TSX Preferred ETF

If interest rates are going to go up (he doesn’t think that is going to happen in a big way), then reset preferreds make a lot of sense. If interest rates are going to go down, reset preferreds don’t. The BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred (ZPR-T) has more reset preferreds in it, while this one is a combination of traditional type preferreds and the resets. Either one is fine right now, but he has been a net seller of these in recent weeks. If this one dips back to about $12.50, he is going to start buying again. He would be a seller above $13.


Price:
$12.800
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart TCK.B-T Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

This is a very popular stock in Canada. For several years, he has said avoid, avoid, avoid. China is slowing copper. Now the stock has gone absolutely insane. It’s a momentum play right now, and it terrifies him to no end to try and buy this. He would avoid. If you are going to be in it, you must use really tight stops. This is a momentum play behind the “infrastructure spend”, and he is just not sure it is going to materialize.


Price:
$34.660
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2016-11-21 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Ottawa wants an end to coal for 2030.  If he was the CEO of a utility, then he would probably view Trump’s bringing back coal as a temporary thing in that kind of timeframe.  The world is moving away from coal and the coal jobs are not coming back.  OPEC is going to talk up a cutting back on production of oil, but they have always cheated.  If OPEC cuts back then the US and Canada will just boost theirs.  He thinks there might be a freeze on production levels.  Oil stocks on the TSX are priced for $60-$65 oil.  If oil goes up to $60, these stocks could go a little higher than they are today, but they are basically discounting this level.  You could be a buyer on dips, but don’t chase it.  Oil is lower for longer.  Fixing roads and bridges is not going impact any US infrastructure ETFs as they are pipelines and utility stocks.  There are no companies in these ETFs that would benefit.  The exposure is zero to Trump’s infrastructure spending.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-21 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Momentum and value in smart beta ETFs.  Vanguard has a couple of smart strategies.  They think smart indexing is an active strategy.  They debate Larry in disagreeing it is active in that it is a set of rules.  The Momentum strategy is benefiting from a behavioral bias in the market place where investors are slow to react.  The Liquidity strategy focuses on companies that are smaller and don’t trade as much, aren’t in the news as much and so may be undervalued.  Investors overpay for liquidity in the market place.  Less liquid names, also have more risk.  A quarter of Vanguards assets under management are actively managed.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-21 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart BAM.A-T Brookfield Asset Management (A)

It would be important for us to get above the highs of the last few years.  It is probably capped for now and the risk is that we come back to support at the lows of the last couple of years.  He thinks there is a more material correction coming over the next year.


Price:
$45.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-21 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart FIE-T iShares Cdn Financial Monthly Income ETF

Good quality banks and insurance companies.  It is not a good time to step in at this time.  It is at all time highs.  Its bonds are short term corporate bonds so you don’t have interest rate risk.  The risks are far too high with these companies right now, however.  He does not think Trump will cause interest rates to go up the way analysts predict.


Price:
$7.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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