Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2016-06-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

India. One of his favourite places to invest, because of the potential for economic growth through their phenomenal demographic profile. The chart, showing the Indian rupee falling versus the US$ for the last 40 years, shows it has basically been a persistent decline. There have been periods where it has been relatively stable for a decade or more, but generally in the last 10 years, it has been towards a weaker rupee. You could lose 3%-4% a year just on the currency.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-06-20 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold? Sold the last of his holdings (bullion) when gold was at around $1300. He likes gold when it is below $1100, which is when there is value. Gold has its place, but it yields nothing. You could buy it on dips as a trade, but doesn’t know why you would want it here.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2016-06-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment. Brexit? Feels Brexit is probably not going to happen. Generally speaking, the undecided voter speaks for the status quo. What is happening globally is the anti-establishment vote. More and more people are upset. He doesn’t think Europe works in the common currency and in some of the things they are trying to do. Loves the idea of the EU and Europe working together, but the reality is that these countries did not meet their criteria and debt is a problem. A chart on the British pound shows that it broke down in January at about 1.48-1.49 when this really started to get in the mainstream. The long-term multi-decade support of 1.39-1.40 is the range. If the British pound gets above 1.49 or below 1.39 that is going to tell you how things are going to play out.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-06-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CYH-T iShares Global Advantage Dividend E.T.F.

A global high dividend paying ETF hedged to the Cdn$? There are a couple of options. The yield on this is just under 4%. It is hedged globally. There are many more choices in the US.


Price:
$17.190
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-20 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart IBB-Q iShares Nasdaq BioTech ETF

Using a 5-year chart, and looking at where the long term support is and their averages, this sector has broken down quite a bit. Wait and see what the new US administration does to this sector. It ran up tremendously for a number of years, and now we are in a correction mode. If Hillary gets her way, there is probably another leg down in this area. You could buy a half or a 3rd just to be in there, because it has corrected significantly from the highs.


Price:
$258.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-20 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ITA-N IShares Aero & Def. ETF

This has always been a thematic type of investment. There are times you want to own, and there are times when you don’t. The 5-year chart shows it is really on the highs and breaking out a little. He doesn’t like breakout kinds of stories because they fail more often than they don’t. Also, it depends on who wins the election. If Trump wins, this might be a very strong sector for a little while.


Price:
$125.210
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-20 PARTIAL BUY Must be logged in to use chart POT-T Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

Chart shows this is developing a bottom, but it hasn’t done anything bullish yet. The trend over the last year has been lower lows and lower highs, and that trend is still very much in place. To confirm the bottoming, you want to see this break out over the March-April high of around $25. Consider buying a half a position now. Value wise it is attractive.


Price:
$21.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-20 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart RDS.A-N Royal Dutch Shell PLC (A)

One of the biggest energy companies globally. You have to ask if there is value here, and if you are trading or investing. Right now, from an investment standpoint, a lot of the stocks have recovered back to the area where they are pricing in $60 oil. He doesn’t see a lot of value in the energy sector today. Feels the sector is probably going to underperform for a long time. If oil goes back to $40 or less, that is the time you want to nibble at oil companies.


Price:
$52.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-20 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZUD-T BMO US Dividend Hedged to CAD

US dividend stocks? There are a couple of different ways to play this. You could do this through and equally weighted diversified basket of ETF dividend payers like this one. He would go with a hedged version. If things are going to recover, the Cdn$ is going to get a bit stronger, and you want to make sure you are hedged.


Price:
$20.280
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Elliott wave theory. Not a big proponent of this. It is only after the fact that we can we evaluate whether it worked or didn’t. The conclusion is that nothing works all the time, and it is about managing risks.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-06-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Consumer staples? Portfolio managers have to stay fully invested, and want to get defensive if they think markets are going to pull back. They go into lower volatility names like utilities, some healthcare like big Pharma (if they are not too expensive), and consumer staples. You could use SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP-N) in the US or iShares S&P/TSX Cap Consumer Staples (XST-T) in Canada. Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD.B-T), Loblaw’s (L-T) and Metro (MRU-T) are the big weights in the latter. These are more defensive and likely to fall a bit less when markets correct, but not likely to go up when markets go down.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment. Downside of negative interest rates. Negative interest rates are really stealing money away from pensioners and savers. Did a little heat map of the term structure of interest rates going 2 to 30 years in the various countries. Canada, US and UK still have relatively normal yield curves, although yields are pretty much as low as they have ever been. However, in Europe and Japan you’ve got negative interest rates. There are over $10 trillion of government yields with negative interest rates. Last week the ECB started buying corporate bonds, and there is a good chance that some corporates are going to be able to issue bonds with negative interest rates. He showed a 2006-2016 chart of the total returns of the entire US market comparing the history of stock and bond returns. When stocks go down, bonds are generally the offset. The problem in the pension world going forward is that interest rates are so low that in order to get that balance return of 6%-7%-8%, you have to use stocks, but only if you can handle the ride. The volatility is very, very different. If global bonds are going to yield 1%, in order to get your 7% in a balanced portfolio, you have to get 14%-15% in stocks. Where valuation is today, that is not doable. A passive “buy and hold” portfolio is going to be very challenging.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-06-13 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart CWB-T Canadian Western Bank

The correlation with this bank and energy prices, etc. is what this bank is all about. It is a proxy for Shorting the energy sector. He doesn’t like this one at this time. Expects oil to hit $40 before it hit $60, and therefore potential weakness. Can see a probable 10% downside, at which point he would think about buying if you want a longer-term play on the recovery story of Fort McKenzie.


Price:
$26.320
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart FIE-T iShares Cdn Financial Monthly Income ETF

Likes this as a diversifier. You have about 22% of preferreds, 11% of corporate bonds, all of the banks and a lot of financials, some of the big dividend payers in Canada. It isn’t diversified much beyond financials, so there is a lot of sector concentration. If you are going to put this in your portfolio, and it is 10%-20%, he would be good with that. Make it a core holding. Valuation-wise right now, he doesn’t like financials. Thinks they underperform for the next year or 2.


Price:
$6.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-13 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart MSFT-Q Microsoft

Microsoft has just purchased LinkedIn (LNKD-N). If they can incorporate this into Microsoft Dynamics and CRM, with the ability of business to talk to business, there are definitely some synergies. Looks like the market doesn’t like this acquisition. Chart shows a pretty significant price gap in 2015, and since then has traded in the range between $50 and $55. If it breaks down much below $50, it would trigger a pretty important technical breakdown, that would target something around $40. If this doesn’t hold the $50 area, there could be trouble.


Price:
$50.140
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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