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Paul Harris, CFA , Portfolio Manager and Partner

Avenue Investment Management


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2014-11-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  We are not in the midst of a price war in oil.  You tend to get an overreaction in the market place when these things happen (OPEC NOT cutting back on production).  Canadian oil stocks are great companies.  You just have to buy quality.  You can then buy them at these levels.  Tomorrow could be a quieter day in the US so these companies may open lower.  If oil bottoms at $60 it may not bounce right back.  At some point in time, since we do use it, prices should eventually go up.  There may be a lack of drilling until it does.  Some capacity gets shut in.  He always looks at the US first before Europe for a sector that he likes.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
_N/A
2014-11-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart AAPL-Q Apple

Don’t buy it at a record level.  He has never owned it.  One product almost generates 50% of their revenue and this bothers him.  It is such a large company that at some point it will be harder and harder to grow.  Thinks the Christmas season is already built into the stock price.  The price may pull back at some point.  Thinks they will not be able to innovate as much as people think.


Price:
$119.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-11-27 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart BAC-N Bank of America

10% of all deposits in the US are with them.  Stock has not done much at all this year, but you should see improvements in the company next year.  They have a great retail and commercial franchise, great investment banking business and a great wealth management business.  They will continue to generate lots of capital and then buy back shares and increase the dividend with it.


Price:
$17.110
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-11-27 BUY Must be logged in to use chart BNS-T Bank of Nova Scotia

They have a new CEO, took a write-off.  They got a multiple for being in high growth areas, but some of those countries are slowing down.  They are doing the right thing now and it will benefit them down the road.


Price:
$70.850
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-11-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CL-N Colgate Palmolive

A great company, but has a high multiple, at the high end of these consumer type companies.  Prefers PG-N, who are making some changes and getting rid of some products and buying back some of their shares.  These companies need to re-think their product line and rationalize it.  CL-N is a well run company, but you pay a higher multiple.


Price:
$68.690
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-11-27 BUY Must be logged in to use chart CNQ-T Canadian Natural Rsrcs

Great management and incredibly well run.  A fantastic company.  Dropped to the lows of October so he would look to buy more at these levels.  At some point oil will stabilize and then go up.


Price:
$38.450
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-11-27 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart CVE-T Cenovus Energy

You have to look at great companies because we don’t know where oil will go.  This is one of them.  They will have to rationalize their businesses and cut costs.  This may involve cutting the dividend. 


Price:
$25.760
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-11-27 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart DH-T DH Corporation

Very unique franchise here in Canada.  An acquisition moved them into the US.  They are now a technology company.  There is some great growth coming.  Does not think the dividend will go up as substantially as before.  They may have to do some more debt for acquisitions.  In the US the banking industry is more fragmented so their products are more beneficial to them.  Buy them on a pullback.  It will do well over the next few years.  They executed on what they promised to do.


Price:
$36.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-11-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart FCAU-N Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV

The guy at Fiat has done a good job.  He would buy F-N if you had to be in this industry.  It is a better company to own.  Better growth in the Asian market, and they have some really good products.  He does not like the industry as they have a lot of tail winds.  Unless Europe turns around you aren’t going to see the growth.  He doesn’t follow auto parts manufacturers that well, but they deal with everybody so it is not the same issues. 


Price:
$12.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-11-27 BUY Must be logged in to use chart GOOGL-Q Google

They have a monopoly on search.  That is key.  Everybody uses them.  Advertising revenue coming off of it is substantial.  If you have a long term view then this is a company that is going to execute well.  You are not paying a lot for them like social media type companies.


Price:
$547.730
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-11-27 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart IBN-N ICICI Bank Ltd.

Should grow well over the next several years because it is in an emerging market.  It could be volatile, but has the potential for substantial growth as the market grows in India.  You have to be careful of the volatility, though.  Would prefer something more stable in Canada or the US.


Price:
$57.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-11-27 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ING-N ING Groep NV

They have split up their banking and insurance divisions.  Trades below book value, but has no dividend.  They cleaned up their balance sheet.  They are a safer company right now because they are in retail and commercial banking, although in Europe.  They are in a better situation than previously.  They are worth buying at these levels.  They passed all the stress tests.


Price:
$14.540
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-11-27 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart MEQ-T Mainstreet Equity Corp

(Top Pick Nov 7/13, Up 25.10%) It is a well run company.  They have rental assets in Calgary and Edmonton.  They are rental residential properties.  Lots of room for them to recapitalize at the right levels.  There is no dividend, but they feel they can reinvest the cash flow at better returns.


Price:
$40.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-11-27 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart MSFT-Q Microsoft

(Top Pick Nov 7/13, Up 31.80%) They are not thinking they are competing with AAPL-O anymore.  The Surface has come out and it is an enterprise product.  Xbox is doing better and they have a good phone.  Incredible balance sheet and the change of management has helped them to refocus.  15 times earnings, 3% dividend, $27 billion in free cash flow, gross margins of 68%.  That’s what Microsoft is.  A great company from a balance sheet perspective.


Price:
$47.750
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-11-27 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart QCOM-Q Qualcomm

13 times earnings.  They are facing some issues in China with royalties and they are in with an antitrust case and hopefully this will work out.  They are in the high growth area of the tech business.  Great roadmap for down the road.  8-10% revenue and earnings growth.  They are buying back shares and increasing their dividend soon.  They were hurt in the short term, but will benefit from it being solved further out.


Price:
$72.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Yes
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