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Paul Harris, CFA , Portfolio Manager and Partner

Avenue Investment Management


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2014-12-31 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He has not changed his view that markets will grind higher.  It may be a little difficult for Canada with oil and commodities, however.  Interest rates may go up but not aggressively.  Stocks offer better opportunity for dividends and capital appreciation.  You will see a lot more M&A going on around the world in 2015.  Valuations are not aggressive and lots of people are flush with cash.  The other thing is what happens to oil and other commodities.  It is probably China.  There is far too much supply of the stuff.  There are not many risks that the US will not lead the world in the economic recovery.  The Fed will raise interest rates very slowly because it is too risky for them to do otherwise.  You should be in stocks because you can’t get the returns from fixed income.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
_N/A
2014-12-31 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart BAC-N Bank of America

0.8 times book, not at a high PE.  10 times earnings.  Legal issues have gone away.  10% of all deposits within the US.  Thinks there will be a lot more M&A and so they will do well.  Great card business.  Sold off non-core assets.  Management has done a great job. 


Price:
$17.890
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart BAM.A-T Brookfield Asset Management (A)

Stock vs. Stock.  BAM.A-T vs. BIP.UN-T.  BAM has good organic growth and a nice dividend yield.  They are very good at understanding the assets they own and knowing when BYthose assets are fully valued.


Price:
$58.220
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart BCS-N Barclays Bank PLC

Fixed income takes up a lot of their capital so they are moving to reducing it.  They are looking at their core banking franchise and looking at global customers.  Great retail franchise and a great card business plus a great wealth management business.  This all helps them to do very well.  It is under restructuring but if you buy it here it will do well over the next 2-3 years.


Price:
$15.010
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart BIP.UN-T Brookfield Infrastucture Partners

Stock vs. Stock.  BAM.A-T vs. BIP.UN-T.  BAM.A-T is the parent.  They are very bright guys at BAM.A-T.  They have opportunities to grow quicker than the parent.  They are both good companies each with a good dividend yield.


Price:
$48.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-31 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart BTE-T Baytex Energy Corp

It is getting to be very cheap.  They have a big shale play they bought in Texas.  They don’t control it but share it with someone else.  The issue is what happens to the oil price.  If it goes lower they will have a difficult time.  They have debt.  There may be all kinds of issues.  You need to buy companies with a good balance sheet that can weather through all of this.


Price:
$19.320
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-31 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart CL-N Colgate Palmolive

A consumer brand business.  The issue is that 80% of revenue is from outside of North America.  21 times earnings and a good dividend yield.  Another issue is that they have good brand loyalty but they are known for their toothpaste.  He would prefer they sold off Hills, the veterinary business.  This company performs well over the long term so if you have a long time horizon then buy on a pull back.  They increase dividends regularly.


Price:
$69.190
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
No
2014-12-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart DEO-N Diageo PLC

A very good company, 21 times earnings and 2.8% dividend.  The drinks business is a great cash flow business.  DEO-N is 60% owned by the top 5-6 guys.  They compete with a lot of local producers.  Their history has been to do deals and they will do this with local guys.  Liquor consumption is rather stable, but moving from clear to dark liquor.  They are well positioned with products in both ranges.  As people get wealthier, they drink a lot more alcohol.  This is far more prevalent in the developing world.  The one risk is how they estimate their marketing expenses.


Price:
$114.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
No
2014-12-31 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart GM-N General Motors Corporation

Not the company to own in this sector.  Although it has a good dividend yield.  They handled their issues poorly.  Prefers F-N, who have better management and better products and better European & Asian businesses.  Also prefers European auto companies to GM-T.


Price:
$34.910
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart HOG-N Harley Davidson

16 times earnings, 1.8% dividend.  70% of sales from US.  US sales are highly correlated to the housing market.  The stock pulled back a bit because housing growth was flat.  They will face some issues with the strong US dollar.  They rationalized their expenses, getting rid of some of the workforce.  You will do well with it longer term.


Price:
$65.910
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
No
2014-12-31 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart HR.UN-T H&R Real Estate Inv Trust

Largest commercial REIT in Canada.  Pulled back due to oil among other things and this is your opportunity to buy it.  When they started buying malls, they bought management as well.  It now has a different place where it will grow.  You will get okay growth with this one.


Price:
$21.730
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-31 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart L-T Loblaw Companies Ltd

Loblaw’s is a great franchise.  They are incredibly innovative, but you can walk into any store in the food industry and it is glamorous because they have caught up to Loblaw’s.  Let’s see how they integrate Shoppers.  There has been a lot of disinflation in the food industry.  Prefers WN-T.


Price:
$62.170
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
No
2014-12-31 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart LMT-N Lockheed Martin

They have stopped cutting defense spending in the US.  3% dividend and 15-16 times earnings.  They solved lots of the problems with the F-35.  Thinks they will increase their dividend and buy back shares.  Doesn’t expect a lot of top line growth.


Price:
$192.570
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
No
2014-12-31 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart LNF-T Leon's Furniture

(Top Pick Dec 27/13, Up 35.63%) They bought The Brick and now you are seeing benefits.  It is not a complicated story.  A great brand name and they continue to pay a good dividend yield as they continue to grow their business.  They own a lot of property under their stores and you get the business for free.


Price:
$17.900
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart LYG-N Lloyds TSB Group PLC

Probably sold it at the wrong time.  Management did a great job of changing it around.  The economy in the UK is doing well and he thinks it will continue to do so.  The bank is fine.  They understand retail very well.  Got rid of non-core assets and can now grow the franchise.  If they get back to 18-20% ROE that they had pre 2008 it will be a good story.


Price:
$4.640
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
Bullish on Canadian Equities
Owned:
No
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