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Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Stock Symbol: POT-T

Notes:potash

Last Price Recorded: $34.3100 on 2015-08-31

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2015-08-28 COMMENT Don Lato

Doesn’t think this is a value trap. It is subject to commodity prices, which have been all over the board with respect to fertilizer products. The ramp up of new production has come down dramatically. A couple of mines have been put on the shelf, so he thinks the supply/demand balance will come back more towards Potash’s favour. Doesn’t think there will be a dividend cut imminently as it still has free cash flow to support it, especially since they have curtailed some of their capital projects. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) because of its diversification.


Price:
$34.310
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-08-20 DON'T BUY Ross Healy

It has been overvalued for a long time.  People remember how highly valued it was and cling to it.  The pricing of their product has collapsed.  It has no upside from his point of view.


Price:
$33.680
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-31 PAST TOP PICK Lyle Stein

(A Top Pick March 12/14. Up 0.02%.) This is continuing to struggle. An OK story. They are the lowest cost producers globally, which is a good thing. The dividend is good and they are generating lots and lots of free cash. A great core holding in portfolios.


Price:
$35.580
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-31 BUY David Cockfield

The fertilizer industry seems to be turning a corner. Numbers are better and it looks like the pricing is going to be firmer in the future. Not a bad investment. Thinks the stock was oversold in the last market decline. Feels the dividend is quite safe. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T).


Price:
$35.580
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-07-28 COMMENT Bill Harris, CFA

When the commodity collapses, and the industry can withhold supply, it is really hard to figure it out. This has begotten a premium, because it is able to be a lot more monopoly than it is a commodity business. He can’t really figure out what the long-term price of potash is. Just too expensive for him.


Price:
$35.350
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
BEARISH on RESOURCES
Owned:
No
2015-07-15 HOLD Bruce Tatters

For many years this was one of his favourite agricultural picks. A terrific franchise. The world’s leading potash producer. Between them, Mosaic (MOS-N) and Uralkali over in Russia, there was a great deal of expansion done between 2007, where the market was extremely tight, and 2012. Now the industry is reeling from overcapacity. This company is profitable and they are making money, so they can afford their dividend. However, they are not making big money and it is not really growing right now. It is going to be some time before the world finally tightens up the potash market and absorbs the extra capacity.


Price:
$37.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-13 DON'T BUY John O'Connell, CFA

The story behind this was always a huge great demand growth for food globally and a shortage of potash. They have always been able to match up supply with whatever demand existed. Thinks this will continue to be the situation. You don’t need to own this story.


Price:
$38.380
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-09 BUY Andrew Hamlin

Look at any commodity out there and they are all hit hard.  He likes it for the dividend rates that will do nothing, but go up.  They will return a lot of capital to shareholders.  They are trying to control supply out there through acquisitions.  It is a time to get into it.  Look at all the droughts in the Prairies, Western Canada and into the US.  Potash is setting up quite nicely here.


Price:
$38.380
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - INCOME
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-09 DON'T BUY David Burrows

Basic materials is a very tough space to be in right now. The group has been under pressure because the pricing power has not been good. Grain prices have been getting a little better recently which is good, but this company is not benefiting much. He would prefer Agrium (AGU-T) which gives you a little bit more diversified footprint and is performing a little bit better on the market.


Price:
$38.380
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULL on US EQUITIES
Owned:
No
2015-06-29 COMMENT Michael Simpson, CFA

They made a bid for KNS.  They have the balance sheet and cash flow to sustain the dividend.  Even if Potash prices stay here they will be able to sustain it. However, if they take on more debt for the acquisition, then he would be more concerned.  He has AGU-T.


Price:
$38.320
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDENDS
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
No
2015-06-22 DON'T BUY Michele Robitaille

The dividend is safe and they have growing free cash flow.  Over the next couple of years you will see their cash flow streams start to improve.  Potash fundamentals are not great.  There is a lot coming on stream now.  There is uncertainty as to how the potash market is going to develop.  She prefers AGU-T.


Price:
$37.570
Subject:
HIGH YIELD EQUITIES & REITS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-06-22 DON'T BUY Peter Brieger

The dividend is probably safe.  He has does not like it and has not owned for some time.  He prefers his Top Pick for tonight in the AG space.  People are cutting potash prices simply in order to get market share.  He would stay away.  He likes it long term and it is a necessary resource and in theory should work out well, but for now he would stay away from it.


Price:
$37.570
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-06-05 HOLD Keith Richards

Hasn’t been a very pretty picture for a while. For a number of years it has been in a downtrend and is currently struggling to break that downtrend. For the time being, he would hold and see if it pulls off through the trend line to the upside. If it breaks down through the last low of about $34-$35, that would be a Sell signal. If you own it, he would stay with it.


Price:
$38.320
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-04 DON'T BUY David Burrows

There was a time when POT-T had cornered Potash.  Now there is competition.  Crop prices are low right now.  In the most recent quarter they missed on their numbers.  They are just making a new low.  It is in the commodity space and we have entered a time when there is more supply than demand.  Don’t buy for the dividend and lose more than the dividend amount in stock price.


Price:
$38.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on FINANCIALS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-01 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (1)

Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) where you get nitrogen as well as the potash side. It also has the retail side. This is not particularly cheap and the outlook for Agrium is better. 4.8% dividend yield is safe.


Price:
$38.890
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
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