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Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Stock Symbol: POT-T

Notes:potash

Last Price Recorded: $21.5900 on 2016-05-27

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2016-05-19 DON'T BUY Lorne Steinberg

They just cut the dividend by about a third and he thinks it is sustainable now.  His people keep saying he missed it and then it comes back.  He has shied away.  It is a great company but he can’t do it at the present time.


Price:
$21.790
Subject:
Deep Value Global Equities
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
No
2016-05-18 COMMENT Steve Belisle

The potash market is over supplied right now, especially following the breakup of the cartel in Russia, so pricing is really weak. This is impacting the company, because they are at the higher end of the cost and their margins are compressing. Although the dividend looks attractive, he thinks it is not sustainable at this level.


Price:
$20.900
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDENDS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2016-05-18 COMMENT Christine Poole

This has come back quite a bit because potash prices have been very weak. If you have a very long-term view, you could probably Hold this. We could arguably be near the lows. There has been weaker demand, and potash is priced in US$, which makes these products more expensive, especially for emerging countries. Yielding about 6% and there is a question whether they can sustain the dividend.


Price:
$20.900
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2016-05-13 DON'T BUY Kash Pashootan

Concerned about their ability to sustain their dividend. When they cut it earlier in the year, that was the time to do a proper cleanup and cut more than what they did. It is not going to be well received if they have to cut it again. Looking at their CapX spend and the rate at which they are paying out cash flows on the dividend, it is not a very compelling ratio. Doesn’t believe there is going to be a significant improvement in the space overall. A strong US$ is going to continue putting pressure on the company. Also, China is sitting on stockpiles of potash.


Price:
$20.300
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-05-09 BUY on WEAKNESS Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

He believes in the feed-the-world trade.  It is very cyclical, but most of the bad news is in the sector.  We are at the ‘08/’09 levels.  You need at least a half position in it.


Price:
$20.240
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-05-09 DON'T BUY William Chin

Suffers from the global glut in commodities.  People have done silly things with cheap money.  We have too much ‘stuff’ lying around.  The factory activity index in China has fallen for 47 consecutive months.


Price:
$20.240
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-05-05 WAIT Brooke Thackray

Agriculture does well in the second half of the year in the northern hemisphere.  Late June is an opportunity and October/November is the sweet spot.  We saw a long downturn and now it is going sideways.  He would wait for it to settle down for a month.  June 23th is the start of seasonal strength.  Take at look at it then.


Price:
$20.600
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-05-05 TOP PICK Paul Harris, CFA

It is a difficult environment for the pricing in potash as there is oversupply in India and China. They’ve cut the dividend and it is now down to 6.25%. Potash prices may be volatile here and they may have to cut their dividend again. If so, then he would buy more. At these levels, you are not paying a lot for it. Global economy will continue to grow. A great way of increasing agriculture globally.


Price:
$20.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-05-04 COMMENT Greg Newman

You can write puts on this during weakness.  You might have a dividend cut in this name to come.  Over time you could make money with this one, however.


Price:
$21.430
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-28 HOLD Michael Smedley

(Market Call Minute) Long term it will be okay; be patient.


Price:
$22.170
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-28 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (1)

$20-$20.50 a decent entry point? Is the dividend sustainable? They warned for the year after today’s close, so the stock is going down in the morning for sure. You might get your $20.50. Unless there is a further deterioration in potash prices, the dividend is probably okay, but not certain. They could decide to cut it to preserve cash. If so, he thinks the stock would go to $18-$19. Feels there is still another poor year coming and a bunch of risks, so not something he would own.


Price:
$22.170
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2016-04-27 COMMENT Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Good long term hold? 10 years+? He would tend to think so, based on macro agricultural demand and population growth. They report tomorrow which should give you a little more information. Payout ratio is at about 140% of free cash flows, which is a big issue. Also, China is a big price setter when it comes to potash and nitrogen. China was giving smaller nitrogen players big discounts on electricity, and that is about to disappear, which will put a bit of a cramp on the supply coming out of China. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) right now.


Price:
$23.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2016-04-25 WATCH Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

He loves the feed-the-world trade.  That is not mattering that much right now.  It looks like we are making a bottom, but we have not confirmed.  He is starting to like it here.


Price:
$22.570
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-25 WATCH James Rife

You have to think about what demand will be.  You want rich customers.  Unfortunately it is not a good outlook for farmers’ incomes.  Corn prices are down.  Oil rigs are on the land, but oil prices are down.  The outlook for fertilizer demand is down, but the stock is relatively cheap.  So it is a case of how patient you want to be.  This stock could be a source of funds to move into metals.


Price:
$22.570
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-21 DON'T BUY Kash Pashootan

He is not concerned about the valuation, but about the dividend.  He does not think they cut it enough when they did so.  He prefers AGU-T.


Price:
$22.990
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
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