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Home Capital Group Stock Symbol: HCG-T

Notes:mortgages

Last Price Recorded: $26.0200 on 2015-08-31

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2015-08-31 DON'T BUY James Hodgins

He has had a short for the last couple of years.  It is a good short position now.  He is now covering off his short.  He prefers EQI-T.


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
SMALL & MID-CAP
Bias:
BEAR on COMMODITIES
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-28 COMMENT John O'Connell, CFA

Has been a very well-run company. The dismissal of a lot of brokers was a very wise thing. The issue for a lot of individual investors is that you are sort of doubling up on a bet that most Canadians have. A lot of assets invested, tied to the outcome of the housing market as being a positive outcome for the longer-term. This company tends to operate in a market where banks don’t want to operate. Also, you have to worry about the funding of these types of companies over the longer haul if things start to get into trouble. When interest rates start to rise, companies like this will have a very, very rough run.


Price:
$26.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-08-19 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (2)

(Market Call Minute.) Lots of controversy around this and lots of issues with the brokers and what has happened there. They have a great track record of running a business. Have run into a bit of a hiccup and is probably a great opportunity to pick up the stock.


Price:
$27.580
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-11 DON'T BUY Christine Poole

They had some problems with some of their agents who source loans.  They indicated they don’t anticipate taking any great charges on these loans.  She prefers the big banks, though. 


Price:
$29.980
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-05 COMMENT Michael Smedley

This story is nothing more than what you see. They have to tighten the controls. It has been the Golden stock. They now have the problem of reasserting itself, which is very difficult as the “Golden stock”. It will take time. Even though it is not harming their Book, it will take them time to rebuild. Doesn’t think they are in any deep trouble at all. If you own, you can Sell and take your profits, or you can hold it patiently. You have to keep in mind that this is really the risk end of the market, which the banks don’t touch.


Price:
$32.600
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-04 TOP PICK Peter Hodson

Since 2001, this company has not issued a single new share. Management owns 7% and the founder owns $100 million worth of stock. The ROE has always been more than 20% and their Operating Margin has always been more than 50%. They’ve never had huge credit losses and have had 13 dividend increases since 2008. Everyone is worried about credit losses, but this company’s has always been low. Trading at 7X earnings. In the recession of 2008, the company increased its earnings and increased their dividend twice. Dividend yield of 2.73%.


Price:
$32.200
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-07-31 BUY David Cockfield

Had a problem with some falsification of income on loan documents. This is a problem with an outfit that really depends on mortgage brokers being honest. You have to understand, this company is loaning to people that can’t get loans. They have done an excellent job over the years and have no significant losses right now. Unfortunately they have been the subject of significant Shorting from the US. He doesn’t tend to invest in this type of company, but thinks this is probably a reasonable Buy at these levels.


Price:
$31.830
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-07-29 DON'T BUY James Telfser

Just reported and it wasn’t a bad one. There are a lot of question marks about the quality of the loans they’ve been given. At the request of the Ontario Securities Commission, they had to let about 45 brokers go. They say that income data was falsified on mortgages representing $960 million, which is about 5.6% of their outstanding loan assets in 2014. The company doesn’t expect there will be big credit losses.


Price:
$28.400
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-21 COMMENT Barry Schwartz

Financial services stuff can get scary when you hear the issues. He has owned this for a very long time. Waiting for the conference call to explain what is going on and get a better feeling as to what is happening. They preannounced $1.03 in earnings. Still believes in the valuation. A lot of people have concerns with the mortgage market and what is going to happen with housing prices.


Price:
$32.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-20 WAIT Paul Gardner, CFA

They terminated 15% of their broker relationships last week.  They found out they are taking on too much risk.  They cut their growth targets.  He does not know if there is more bad stuff to come.  Wait a quarter to see what plays out.


Price:
$32.040
Subject:
FIXED INCOME, LARGE CAP DIVIDENDS AND REITS
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-07-20 DON'T BUY Patrick Horan

Replaced one of their chief risk officers. It looks cheap and would typically be the kind of thing he would look at hard. They are the financier for people who can’t get financing from banks. In a tightening cycle, Canada is going to shrink and we are going to see a squeeze take place over the coming years. Credit quality is going to be the biggest thing with this company.


Price:
$32.040
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-16 COMMENT Douglas Kee

Feels the recent stock correction was overdone. They reported some earnings that weren’t as good as the market had expected. Short-sellers in the US are trying to make a lot of money on the situation. If the stock came off anymore, he would seriously consider getting into it.


Price:
$32.070
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-15 HOLD Bruce Tatters

This was a very long-standing large position at his firm. He started to come to the belief that the Canadian housing market was starting to get too richly valued. The stock is now value again and is trading at about 7X earnings. Fantastic management, but they have stated that they are more disciplined in pulling back their horns on lending. This is a key tell on what has happened on the Canadian housing market. Wouldn’t sell at these levels. Good value, but he doesn’t like the outlook for the industry.


Price:
$32.350
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-13 DON'T BUY John O'Connell, CFA

Had a big drop today and thinks it was precipitated because RBC downgraded the stock, not because they are negative on the housing market, but because of their concerns about slowing revenue growth. There is a big US Short position and they have been waiting and waiting for the Canadian housing market to fall. His sense is that the housing market is going to have to pause. Population growth is only going to take the housing market so far. Not a stock that he would want to own.


Price:
$34.060
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-06-23 COMMENT Paul Taylor

Tied to the vagaries of the Canadian housing market.  It is highly regional.  It is well run.  There has been a big short position on this one.  A lot of it he argues is ill-informed US investors who believe the Canadian housing market is in bubble territory.  He believes we will soft land in real estate in Canada and this won’t affect HCG-T much.


Price:
$42.200
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BEARISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 15 of 229 entries
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