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Home Capital Group Stock Symbol: HCG-T

Notes:mortgages

Last Price Recorded: $28.7500 on 2016-07-28

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2016-07-28 DON'T BUY Andy Nasr

It is tough to get comfortable with them because the Canadian consumer is so highly leveraged.  He would prefer to own a bank.


Price:
$28.750
Subject:
GLOBAL
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2016-06-29 SELL Stephen Takacsy, B. Eng, MBA

Lost credibility with what happened last year, with some of the mortgage applications that were doctored or exaggerated. Prefers Equitable (EQB-T) which does basically the same business, except they follow everything by the book and have a much higher growth rate. He would switch.


Price:
$31.900
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2016-06-14 DON'T BUY David Burrows

There are all kinds of concerns around lenders and their ability to make money. This company has done a very good job of managing losses on mortgages, but there are some real concerns about the Canadian housing market, and there are some concerns around the risks of Western Canada. He would prefer not to focus in this area until things started to improve.


Price:
$31.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2016-06-14 COMMENT Christine Poole

Focused on non-bank traditional mortgages. If you want to play the financial service sector, her preference would be to buy one of the big Canadian banks. (See Top Picks.)


Price:
$31.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2016-06-10 SELL Jerome Hass

Has been Short this. As much as it has had a great long term success record, you have to look at the most recent quarter. Their originations, new mortgages that have come in, are up 28%, and yet their loan book dropped. That tells you that there is a very significant churn within their portfolio. Just standing still they have to find 28% new clients every year, a very, very high churn rate for any business. Also, new immigrants are now being more welcomed by the banks. Thinks there are a lot of headwinds on this company. He would think about trimming your position.


Price:
$32.500
Subject:
CANADIAN MID-CAPS & LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2016-05-05 SELL Brooke Thackray

It was a miss on Q1 earnings.  We saw a break out and then a pullback.  You don’t want to be in this over the next 6 months as it is not the period of seasonal strength.  He would be looking to exit.


Price:
$31.990
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-11 DON'T BUY Colin Stewart

He puts it in the category of ‘too tough to figure out’.  Canadian housing prices continue to rise and HGC has had no issue with rising delinquencies.  It’s a cheap stock as long as all goes well in the Canadian housing market.


Price:
$36.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE (LONG/SHORT STRATEGIES)
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2016-04-11 DON'T BUY James Telfser

A bunch of these names in have been put through the wringer. The story got a little bit frothy a couple of years ago. There is still a lot of unanswered questions. Growth trajectory is not as high. ROE is coming down. There are a lot of things that are decelerating in the business. Still trading at a depressed multiple, but he is not compelled to get in just yet.


Price:
$36.340
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2016-04-07 COMMENT Jon Vialoux

This falls in the same category as the banking sector with seasonal strength occurring from February through to mid-April. This has been slightly outperforming the market in the past few days. He sees resistance at around $37. It is holding its 20 day moving average at about $35.83. If it breaks that level, you can expect selling pressures to really escalate. His indicators are curling over which would imply that something negative is going to happen.


Price:
$36.160
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-04-04 SELL John Zechner

Given the move the stock has had, because of the Dutch auction he would be more inclined to tender into the Dutch auction, or sell a little bit in front of it. Valuation is cheap, but there are still things that bother him. There have been some problems in the last couple of quarters with some distributors and sellers of their product.


Price:
$36.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2016-03-31 HOLD Lyle Stein

He looked at it a month and two months ago.  He thought the world was too negative on them.  Now it is seeing some recovery.  He would hold it if he owned it.  It is a proxy for the housing market. 


Price:
$35.060
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2016-03-28 BUY Barry Schwartz

Had some issues with mortgages they wrote in 2015, but the company defended their strategies very well. Each year they keep reporting record profits. Growth is slowing, but likes what they have done with the free cash flow. Will be doing a big Dutch Auction and have just raised the dividend. Very cheap valuation. Should trade at around 10X earnings. Somewhere in the $45-$50 range is fair value.


Price:
$34.850
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-03-24 HOLD Bill Carrigan

We advanced above the panic 2009 level, but have almost gone back to those levels.  We made a low and bounced up. The question is if we make it above the pivot point.  He thinks maybe we have.  Have a stop loss strategy at around  $30.60. 


Price:
$34.550
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-03-22 COMMENT Stephen Takacsy, B. Eng, MBA

Dutch Auction:  He really likes this company although owns a smaller, faster growing one.  Hopefully HCG-T’s problems are behind them.  The deal will get done unless investors won’t tender their shares.  They are buying back stock while it is cheap. 


Price:
$35.710
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-03-22 WEAK BUY Norman Levine

He has always admired the company.  There are worries that the housing market is overdone in markets they are in.  You have to decide for yourself.  He thinks the market is a little frothy, but not in danger.  They are not prime lenders so you have to worry about some of the mortgages.  It is still okay to buy.


Price:
$35.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
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