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Crescent Point Energy Corp Stock Symbol: CPG-T

Last Price Recorded: $30.2000 on 2015-01-31

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2015-01-30 COMMENT Greg Newman

Have been cutting CapX and stand ready to cut more. In spite of this, they still expect production to grow by about 9% this year. 41% of their 2015 production is hedged. Very sustainable relative to their peers, but even with these hedges, $50 oil and $3 natural gas, he feels the balance sheet will weaken and debt to cash flow will climb to 2.3% and cash flow per share will fall by about 33% and the effective payout ratio will rise to about 158%. The dividend is probably sustainable for this year. The only way he would buy this is if you believe the oil price weakness is temporary and you will have $55-$80 oil within the next 12-20 months.


Price:
$30.200
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-29 WAIT Ben Cheng

It has done very well in the last 30 days, outperforming many of the old ex-income trusts in the energy sector.  They will continue to pull back cap-x.  When oil prices go over $65 you will see more invigorated growth.


Price:
$28.830
Subject:
REITS, INCOME STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-26 WAIT Don Vialoux

Bottoms about now and goes higher right through until the beginning of May.  It has formed a base and broke out last week.  Crude bottoms at the beginning of February and then breaks out.


Price:
$30.930
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-23 HOLD Jaime Carrasco

One that has consistently grown and consistently paid a dividend. He is not too concerned about the dividend. They have a good balance sheet. He would wait to buy this, but would definitely not sell it. His company has this in a Sector Outperform with a $47 target.


Price:
$30.460
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-22 COMMENT Stan Wong

A higher-quality name. Have announced they are not going to decrease their dividend for the time being. Right now you are getting about a 9.5% dividend.


Price:
$29.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-22 HOLD David Cockfield

Company has dug in its heels and said it will maintain its dividend.  A fair amount of this and next year’s production is pre-sold.  If pricing stays where it is for another 3 to 4 months he might start to worry about the dividend.  He is not selling, but watching it closely.  It is one of the best managed oil companies.


Price:
$29.100
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-16 WAIT Kash Pashootan

There isn’t any evidence that we have reached any sort of stability in oil prices. There have been a couple of days where there has been less decline, but that sentiment can change very quickly. He has been bearish on energy for 4 years. If looking for an entry point, he would wait. This is one of the higher-quality names. If this energy weakness continues, even names like this will be at risk of cutting their dividends.


Price:
$30.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE - DIVIDEND
Bias:
DEFENSIVE
Owned:
No
2015-01-16 COMMENT Ryan Bushell

Has had an interesting record. Coming out of 2008, spot prices got down to the mid-$30 a barrel range, and this company was able to maintain its dividend at that point. Currently they are on track to maintain their dividend through this cycle, but it all depends on how fast the oil price comes back. He feels this company has built itself as good as one can in terms of a conservative balance sheet, good properties and a propensity to work hard at maintaining the dividend. This is about as good as you are going to get in terms of dividend sustainability in a light oil producer in Canada. There might be another buying opportunity for you in the next few months.


Price:
$30.070
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-13 COMMENT Christine Poole

Came out last week and cut their CapX spending by 28% and indicated that the dividend was safe. They hadn’t cut their dividend even in the 2008 recession, so they are very cognizant of the fact that they have a shareholder base that needs the income. She expects they will continue to cut CapX to maintain the dividend. Have a very active hedging program in place and about half their 2015 production is hedged at $90 Cdn, which is going to moderate lower spot prices. Unless crude stays at $45-$50 for the balance of the year, she doesn’t anticipate that they will have to touch the dividend.


Price:
$26.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-12 HOLD Norman Levine

He does not think it is the time to buy any oil or gas stock.  He has it in income accounts.  They say their dividend is safe.  They are the most hedged oil and gas company in Canada.  Over half is hedged above $90.  That doesn’t tell him what happens next year.  It is one of the well capitalized names that he would look at it he was going to buy energy.


Price:
$27.230
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-09 COMMENT Andy Nasr

Pretty compelling value if you have a longer-term time horizon. Doesn’t think the dividend is necessarily at risk, unless oil stays right where it is. He views the current decline as being somewhat transitory in nature and thinks the commodity price will go back up. Companies like this, that are relatively well capitalized, should benefit as the commodity price rebounds. Operationally, they have done a very good job of diversifying their business. In hindsight, the acquisitions they made were a little bit expensive, but they do have hedges in place that hopefully will stabilize the balance sheet and be able to push them through 2015 until you see the commodity price go up.


Price:
$28.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & REITs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-08 WATCH Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

He would have liked to have seen it hold the level at $35. The fact that it didn’t is telling him that it isn’t going to get above that level and will be spending a lot of time doing some basing. His data also indicates that it wants to drop below its low and come back to the $18-$20 range. He would continue to watch it. If it does get above the $35 level, that will become its new support.


Price:
$27.240
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-07 HOLD Michael Sprung

(He has some positions in some small accounts.) An extremely well-run and well-managed company. The properties they bought give them drilling opportunities going forward for a number of years. With prices coming off as severely as they have recently, they have cut back on their capital expenditure plans from about $2 billion to $1.5 billion. Exited 2014 at about 145,000 barrels a day and are expected to average about that amount this year, which would be an increase over 2014. If the environment is still as bad as it is in 6 months, they would have to take a look at the dividend. If there was a turn around in commodity prices, this company would really benefit.


Price:
$25.940
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-06 COMMENT Bill Carrigan

Today they announced they are cutting its capital expenditure program, but maintaining its dividend. The key for all names that have high CapX and are returning money to shareholders, is how long that energy stays down. If crude stays down longer than 12 weeks, then we are going to have some problems. If we go into March and we still have these low prices, then we are going to start to have problems. Market is not worried about crude being down now, but for how long it is going to be down. He would be very careful on this.


Price:
$25.130
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
BEAR on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-05 WATCH Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

He likes the energy sector, big picture.  It is a no brainer investment over the next 5 to 10 years.  But it is going to be a tough year until we get stabilization.  He thinks a lot of the bad news is priced in.  He does not think an oil price at $30 is justified.  Supply and demand fundamentals should create a bottom here.  This is where you want to be a buyer, not a seller.  There is some risk, however, that the dividend could get cut.


Price:
$24.860
Subject:
SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-02 HOLD John Stephenson

Thinks the dividend is okay and sustainable. One of the things this company has done really well is that they have the best properties around. A fantastic management team. The problem they have is that it is a growth and income oriented vehicle. Where is the growth component, is it really going to be there in this low commodity priced environment? 10% yield.


Price:
$27.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
BEARISH on RESOURCES
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-29 TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(A Top Pick Dec 30/13. Down 27.52%.) He wouldn’t buy at this point, but would wait until there was a further decline in oil prices, which he thinks will probably happen. Every growth oriented portfolio should have a position in this company. Feels this is the best run company in this country. Yield of 9.91%.


Price:
$27.840
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-23 WATCH Brooke Thackray

Oil tends to pick up from a seasonal basis in February. It can bounce around in January. The big worry here is that people are questioning if they are going to cut the dividend. He would be looking at stepping into this when there is a more solid rebound in the energy sector.


Price:
$28.480
Subject:
SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-22 WAIT Don Vialoux

A typical classic seasonal stock. Canadian energy sector, and particularly this stock, tends to have a lot of problems at this time of year. The period of seasonal strength is from the end of January right through until May of each year. At this time of year, the stock goes down. It had a huge recovery last week. It is going to go sideways with all kinds of volatility, but is going to form a nice little base. Take another look at the stock at around the end of January and add to it.


Price:
$27.750
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-19 DON'T BUY John Zechner

They haven’t cut the dividend yet, but thinks they are probably going to have to at some point. They were paying out almost 100%, even though they have some hedges on. He is not buying in this sector even though it has come down a lot.


Price:
$28.610
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2014-12-12 HOLD Bruce Tatters

Was a market darling for years and years and has been one of the bigger growth names in Canadian shale oil, as opposed to an oil sands company. Terrific track record of growth. Has never been a particularly big fan of it, principally because their growth rate in production has been overshadowed by their growth rate in shares outstanding. In the last couple of years, they have made acquisitions at pretty rich valuations. Has dropped from the $40 range, down to the low $20s. If you own, he wouldn’t Sell. Not as over levered as some other players. Has about 40% of its production hedged in the $90’s.


Price:
$21.760
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-10 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (2)

From what he understands, this is hedged at a much higher level, from a total production standpoint, than what most other firms are. He understands it could be north of 50% of their production that is hedged. The obvious issue is that once those hedges roll off, they are going to be realizing lower prices. Everyone is trying to play leapfrog and get ahead of everyone else by selling before those hedges come off and the cash flow drops down. Very well-managed company. Management has said that if lower prices continue, they will protect their balance sheet rather than protect their dividends.


Price:
$22.490
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2014-12-09 HOLD Christine Poole

Company has said they are not going to cut their dividend and she doesn’t think they have to unless energy prices stay below $60 for a number of years. They have hedged out some of their production, about 60% in the 4th quarter, at $92, and 37% of next year’s production at the same price level. They never cut their dividend, even in the recession of 2008. Management is very cognizant that their shareholder base wants that yield. Yielding around 11%, so the market is indicating they believe otherwise.


Price:
$24.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-08 HOLD Jeff Young

Near term, the dividend is fairly safe.  They have a decent amount of hedging for next year and the balance sheet is relatively good.


Price:
$25.000
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
BEAR on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-05 TOP PICK David Cockfield

Thinks this has gotten beaten up too much. They operate in Saskatchewan and in North Dakota. Super operators. Have been very adamant in the past about protecting their dividend when prices went down. He is betting that you will see the price of oil back into the $75-$80 range within 6 months. Yield of 10.34%.


Price:
$26.690
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-05 HOLD Rick Stuchberry

He owns this for yield, so he is not going to Sell it. This company hedged their forward sales and have 40% of next year’s revenues hedged at much higher prices, over $90 on the crude. Because of this your distribution should be okay, unless something from left field comes in. His view now is to Hold and see what happens. Very good management.


Price:
$26.690
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
BULLISH on INDIA
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-04 BUY on WEAKNESS Norman Levine

Great stock, but terrible recently.  One of the better capitalized and better run companies.  There will be lot of time to pick these up later.


Price:
$27.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on FINANCIALS
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-02 BUY Lyle Stein

A well-managed company. They have a good discipline of maintaining capital frugalness. They pay dividends and they make acquisitions and they invest in their own properties. The issue here is, how long will oil prices stay low. He doesn’t think this is a long-term bubble that makes sense.


Price:
$29.000
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-02 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (1)

A lot of people and the market are forgetting that this company have really good hedges on. 33% is hedged at $93 for next year, about 25% hedged in the $90’s for 2016 and 15% hedged in the $90’s in 2017. Has almost a 10% yield now. His numbers show that oil would have to stay in the low $50’s before the dividend is in jeopardy. 9.5% dividend yield, which he thinks is safe.


Price:
$29.000
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on NORTH AMERICAN ECONOMY
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-01 PAST TOP PICK Eric Nuttall

(Top Pick Nov 04/13, Down 23.98%) You could see the momentum drying up in this stock just before he sold it.  They disenchanted their major US investor.  The average US investor puts 0 value on their dividend.  They have a pretty good hedge position of 33% for 2015, so the dividend is pretty sustainable through 2015.  As the price of oil falls it is getting more and more tempting.


Price:
$28.590
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
No
Showing 1 to 30 of 795 entries
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1 Comment

mylund

December 19th 2013 at 12:44pm

Who would be railing their crude in North America?


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