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Crescent Point Energy Corp Stock Symbol: CPG-T

Last Price Recorded: $16.8800 on 2015-09-01

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2015-08-31 COMMENT Rick Stuchberry

There is not much more this company can do on the operating side. It has been a spectacular operator. Has reduced its cost by 25%. This is a commodity problem in this company is getting clobbered because the oil price is down. They are low cost producers compared to a lot of others.


Price:
$16.880
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-28 COMMENT John O'Connell, CFA

Thinks the street would say this company is pretty cheap right now. He has consistently had a number of quarrels with this company. They are growing like stink and it is a very well-managed company. The problem is that they are paying out a dividend. You invest $10, and it pays you back $0.60 every year, but you have to pay tax on it. Then they dilute you down by selling new shares to buy more and more great opportunities down the road. Doesn’t like the dividend paying model. Institutional investors are very, very nervous about buying these types of companies, because if prices stay down for a while longer the hedges all roll off next year and it is a disaster. They have a lot of debt.


Price:
$15.330
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-08-27 PAST TOP PICK Stan Wong

(A Top Pick July 23/14. Down 63.93%.) Sold out of this. Doesn’t have a lot of conviction that oil prices are going to rebound. Still likes the company and will probably own it at some point, but for the time being he has rotated out of this into different names.


Price:
$14.740
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-08-25 TOP PICK Eric Nuttall

The most mispriced oil/gas stock in Canada that he can find. Their proved reserves can produce oil for 10 years. At $55 oil, it is trading at 5.5X its total corporate value relative to cash flow. That means you are getting part of the proved reserves for free, their probable reserves for free and all of their own booked inventory for free. It has never traded as cheaply as it has today. Eliminated people’s major concerns and cut the dividend so it is right sized. He has it being sustainable at about $50-$55 or higher. The cash flow is around 2.5X. Eliminated their DRIP so there is no dilution. Dividend yield of 9.02%.


Price:
$12.790
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-24 COMMENT Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

This is in panic mode. Maybe it gets cheaper still. People are liquidating wholesale, and that is always when you want to be buying.


Price:
$12.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-24 PAST TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(A Top Pick July 28/14. Down 69.34%.) He would be looking for an entry point once he sees oil stabilizing. For any of the producers, he would be asking to what level they could get costs down, marginal and average, relative to the price they get through hedging or actual sales. If the spread was positive, he would look to see the potential for production. This is a classic example of a company that can take advantage of increased production with a positive spread. If oil prices stabilize, he does not believe they will cut their dividend again.


Price:
$12.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-24 DON'T BUY Keith Richards

A very popularly held stock. For the longest time it wasn’t a bad stock to hold. It was range bound, but it broke down with oil. The company is very leveraged to oil and have a lot of debt, so where oil goes, they are really going to go. Recently cut their dividend and most people that own the stock had been buying it for the dividend. It keeps breaking support levels. He looks for bases. If it started a sloppy sideways zone, where it broke out eventually, you might consider it, but at this time it is in a downtrend. Don’t buy it until it stops going down.


Price:
$12.650
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-08-20 DON'T BUY Ross Healy

Cannot give any good news on the stock.  You have to wonder how good the dividend is even after they cut it.  Earnings are still suggesting quite a bit of downside.  They do have a fairly decent balance sheet so can bluff their way through this.


Price:
$14.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-19 COMMENT Norman Levine

Their history is that it is a serial acquirer of other companies in its geographical area, and a serial issuer of shares, so the street loves it. When a company keeps issuing shares like that, it is hard for the share price to do well. The yield on the stock was quite high, and a lot of people got sucked into buying because of the yield. Had hedged oil at $90 a barrel. They can’t continue paying their dividend with oil at $40, and they can’t hedge any more. Investors should buy commodity stocks only when they feel commodities are going up. If you are a very long term investor, he is sure you will come out OK, but there is probably going to be some more pain in the near term.


Price:
$14.730
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-19 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (2)

One of the most heavily followed retail stocks in Canada. The dividend cut was being forecast by the market, but they had always said they were not going to cut the dividend. Their business has obviously significantly changed in the last 60 days. If oil stabilizes and bases here, this will probably be an okay place to be. He always has his eye on this one.


Price:
$14.730
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-08-18 COMMENT Richard Croft

Covered Call to January 2017? This stock is a challenge. It is holding its value at this stage because of its dividend, which is not at all certain. If you are able to sell a covered call on this, you are going to have a very challenging time trying to buy it back, because it is not a very liquid market. If you are selling a Call Option he would probably go a little closer, not January 2017. He has a feeling that the Bid/Ask spread is going to be so wide it is not something you are going to be able to work with.


Price:
$15.790
Subject:
OPTION STRATEGIES & E.T.F.S
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-14 DON'T BUY Kash Pashootan

Recently cut their dividend. He has been quite bearish on energy space for a few years and has very little exposure. His view is that the dust has not settled. Although there is some stability in the price of oil, at these levels it is difficult for these types of companies to make any money. We need oil to be considerably higher for an investor to make money. Not a name he would Buy right now.


Price:
$16.640
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDENDS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-08-14 COMMENT Jon Vialoux

The 2 periods of seasonal strength for energy are from January to May followed by the next one from August through to October. The 1st one played out quite nicely with a bounce from a significantly oversold level. We are significantly oversold again and approaching multiyear lows, and what appears to be a good period for investing again. The probability of some of the seasonal influences kicking in this year is rather low. It would be preferable to see the trend in your favour, which would lower your risks of pursuing some of these plays.


Price:
$16.640
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-11 COMMENT Christine Poole

They indicated they can maintain that dividend.  But she thinks it is only a question of how long it can stay down there.  In 2016 about a third of their production is hedged at $83.  If crude stays below $50 for a long period of time you have to question a yield that high.


Price:
$18.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-10 WAIT John Zechner

14.8% yield means the market is telling you they don’t expect the dividend to be paid.  The market is expecting a cut.  He has not added to it here.  Oil prices are still winding down.  CPG-T has the cash and the great land position they acquired.  A cut in the dividend should not do much to the stock price as the expectation of the cut is built into the stock price.


Price:
$18.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-10 DON'T BUY Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

He does not think it is going away.  Oil may not turn for a couple of years.


Price:
$18.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-06 HOLD Bill Carrigan

A lot of analysts embrace the model, but these models are only good when the commodity is doing well.  It fought to stay above its peak for ages and then fell down.  He thinks it will hold in here.  Hold but don’t buy it.


Price:
$18.960
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
No
2015-07-31 DON'T BUY Lyle Stein

He thinks this whole business model is coming under question. The real fundamental question is, should resource companies be the significant generators of cash dividends, when in fact they need that capital, particularly as commodity prices continue to disappoint. The dividend doesn’t make sense because they need the capital to keep the regular business going.


Price:
$19.810
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-07-31 COMMENT David Cockfield

This is definitely going to survive, if any company is going to do well in this particular period of falling prices. Have good financing and good cash flows, and even covering their dividend at the present time. They’ve been good in hedging in terms of selling forward. He hopes they managed to pick up some of that $60 future oil when the market was in contango a month or so ago. Whether they can maintain that 14% dividend is open to question.


Price:
$19.810
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-30 COMMENT Robert Lauzon

He likes them.  The market is telling them it wants them to cut the dividend.  They still might not do it.  They didn’t have to earlier this year.  If oil is still $50 when these hedges roll off, CPG-T will have to cut the dividend within a couple of years.  The yield has spiked as the stock price came down.  CPG-T can’t issue equity with a 12-15% yield and make it accretive.  They should bring it down the 7-8%.  Management does not want to do this, but it is best.


Price:
$20.200
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-29 COMMENT Michael Sprung

Has always been a very well-managed company. For many years, although they didn’t earn it, it was largely supported by the DRIP program. As production and cash flow grew, they were able to cover that. They have run a very effective hedging program. Have 58% of their output hedged at around $88, and 2016 production hedged at around $83. Regarding cash flow, although numbers have come off considerably in the last while, he is still seeing forecasts for the next 2 years of about $4, which allows them to maintain that dividend. Have a lot of very good properties and a lot of potential properties to drill extensively over the next number of years.


Price:
$19.420
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-29 DON'T BUY James Telfser

Would probably be at the bottom of his list of energy stocks that he would buy. Always had a problem with them raising money to pay their dividends. They typically raise money which dilutes shareholders, and then the growth kind of disappears from that.


Price:
$19.420
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-28 WAIT Jim Huang

Leveraged to the oil price, which has come down to $47. They are pretty much 100% oil. Very good management team and good operators in good oil fields. The issue is with the dividend at around 12%, clearly unsustainable at the current price. He thinks a wise decision would be for them to cut the dividend. Wait for a cut in the dividend before buying.


Price:
$19.120
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-07-27 HOLD Bruce Campbell (1)

(Market Call Minute.) Dividend yield is now 14.7%. A Hold and maybe even a Buy at this level. They have hedges on through next year, so would only have to cut the dividend if oil stays at $45 for 18 months.


Price:
$18.750
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-24 COMMENT Jeff Young

Now back to 2008 levels, but it is not alone. A lot of these companies had very strong hedging books going into this year that have seen them come through. When oil had the bounce through the spring, it pushed those hedges out a little bit. It is very difficult to hedge now into 2016. Thinks it’s going to be 2018 before we see a $60 oil price.


Price:
$19.820
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-24 WAIT Jaime Carrasco

One of the better players in his portfolio. They will survive. He is waiting to add. Has noticed that inventory levels have started to flatten out in North America. His company has a $40 target and that the dividend is sustainable. However, he is not ready to add yet. Yield of around 14%.


Price:
$19.820
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
BULLISH on GOLD
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-23 PAST TOP PICK Martin Davies

(Top Pick Jun 25/14, Down 51.92%) The market thinks it should cut its dividend, but they are adamant they don’t have to do that.  13.6% is the dividend.  They have a relatively good balance sheet.  It is a buy here.  It is trading at 2008/09 levels.


Price:
$20.450
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL & GAS
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-22 COMMENT Allan Meyer

One of the better companies. Likes what they are doing. Good strong control. Picking up some of the weaker companies. The trouble is, you have low oil prices. Hopefully their hedges last long enough that they don’t have to start worrying about the current prices of oil. They have been able to hold their dividend in. There is a lot of pressure on oil. He is looking for oil to maintain at around $48. He is not a fan of oil and gas.


Price:
$21.000
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-21 WATCH Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

He sold all of his energy stocks last fall, hasn't dabbled back into it yet. It is a really interesting idea. If it could hold the December low, it could be an opportunity for a seasonal trade. Recommends sitting on the sidelines and watching.


 


Price:
$21.830
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-21 DON'T BUY Barry Schwartz

He doesn’t like high yielding companies in the commodity sector. It doesn’t make sense. Kudos to the management team for hedging, but aren’t they in the business to sell oil/gas at the highest price possible in the spot market? 12% yield is all you have to know to tell you that it is a dangerous situation.


Price:
$21.830
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
Showing 1 to 30 of 898 entries
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1 Comment

mylund

December 19th 2013 at 12:44pm

Who would be railing their crude in North America?


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