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Crescent Point Energy Corp Stock Symbol: CPG-T

Last Price Recorded: $14.7400 on 2015-08-27

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2015-08-27 PAST TOP PICK Stan Wong

(A Top Pick July 23/14. Down 63.93%.) Sold out of this. Doesn’t have a lot of conviction that oil prices are going to rebound. Still likes the company and will probably own it at some point, but for the time being he has rotated out of this into different names.


Price:
$14.740
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-08-25 TOP PICK Eric Nuttall

The most mispriced oil/gas stock in Canada that he can find. Their proved reserves can produce oil for 10 years. At $55 oil, it is trading at 5.5X its total corporate value relative to cash flow. That means you are getting part of the proved reserves for free, their probable reserves for free and all of their own booked inventory for free. It has never traded as cheaply as it has today. Eliminated people’s major concerns and cut the dividend so it is right sized. He has it being sustainable at about $50-$55 or higher. The cash flow is around 2.5X. Eliminated their DRIP so there is no dilution. Dividend yield of 9.02%.


Price:
$12.790
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-24 COMMENT Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

This is in panic mode. Maybe it gets cheaper still. People are liquidating wholesale, and that is always when you want to be buying.


Price:
$12.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-24 PAST TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(A Top Pick July 28/14. Down 69.34%.) He would be looking for an entry point once he sees oil stabilizing. For any of the producers, he would be asking to what level they could get costs down, marginal and average, relative to the price they get through hedging or actual sales. If the spread was positive, he would look to see the potential for production. This is a classic example of a company that can take advantage of increased production with a positive spread. If oil prices stabilize, he does not believe they will cut their dividend again.


Price:
$12.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-24 DON'T BUY Keith Richards

A very popularly held stock. For the longest time it wasn’t a bad stock to hold. It was range bound, but it broke down with oil. The company is very leveraged to oil and have a lot of debt, so where oil goes, they are really going to go. Recently cut their dividend and most people that own the stock had been buying it for the dividend. It keeps breaking support levels. He looks for bases. If it started a sloppy sideways zone, where it broke out eventually, you might consider it, but at this time it is in a downtrend. Don’t buy it until it stops going down.


Price:
$12.650
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-08-20 DON'T BUY Ross Healy

Cannot give any good news on the stock.  You have to wonder how good the dividend is even after they cut it.  Earnings are still suggesting quite a bit of downside.  They do have a fairly decent balance sheet so can bluff their way through this.


Price:
$14.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-19 COMMENT Norman Levine

Their history is that it is a serial acquirer of other companies in its geographical area, and a serial issuer of shares, so the street loves it. When a company keeps issuing shares like that, it is hard for the share price to do well. The yield on the stock was quite high, and a lot of people got sucked into buying because of the yield. Had hedged oil at $90 a barrel. They can’t continue paying their dividend with oil at $40, and they can’t hedge any more. Investors should buy commodity stocks only when they feel commodities are going up. If you are a very long term investor, he is sure you will come out OK, but there is probably going to be some more pain in the near term.


Price:
$14.730
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-19 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (2)

One of the most heavily followed retail stocks in Canada. The dividend cut was being forecast by the market, but they had always said they were not going to cut the dividend. Their business has obviously significantly changed in the last 60 days. If oil stabilizes and bases here, this will probably be an okay place to be. He always has his eye on this one.


Price:
$14.730
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-08-18 COMMENT Richard Croft

Covered Call to January 2017? This stock is a challenge. It is holding its value at this stage because of its dividend, which is not at all certain. If you are able to sell a covered call on this, you are going to have a very challenging time trying to buy it back, because it is not a very liquid market. If you are selling a Call Option he would probably go a little closer, not January 2017. He has a feeling that the Bid/Ask spread is going to be so wide it is not something you are going to be able to work with.


Price:
$15.790
Subject:
OPTION STRATEGIES & E.T.F.S
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-14 DON'T BUY Kash Pashootan

Recently cut their dividend. He has been quite bearish on energy space for a few years and has very little exposure. His view is that the dust has not settled. Although there is some stability in the price of oil, at these levels it is difficult for these types of companies to make any money. We need oil to be considerably higher for an investor to make money. Not a name he would Buy right now.


Price:
$16.640
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDENDS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-08-14 COMMENT Jon Vialoux

The 2 periods of seasonal strength for energy are from January to May followed by the next one from August through to October. The 1st one played out quite nicely with a bounce from a significantly oversold level. We are significantly oversold again and approaching multiyear lows, and what appears to be a good period for investing again. The probability of some of the seasonal influences kicking in this year is rather low. It would be preferable to see the trend in your favour, which would lower your risks of pursuing some of these plays.


Price:
$16.640
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-11 COMMENT Christine Poole

They indicated they can maintain that dividend.  But she thinks it is only a question of how long it can stay down there.  In 2016 about a third of their production is hedged at $83.  If crude stays below $50 for a long period of time you have to question a yield that high.


Price:
$18.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-10 WAIT John Zechner

14.8% yield means the market is telling you they don’t expect the dividend to be paid.  The market is expecting a cut.  He has not added to it here.  Oil prices are still winding down.  CPG-T has the cash and the great land position they acquired.  A cut in the dividend should not do much to the stock price as the expectation of the cut is built into the stock price.


Price:
$18.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-10 DON'T BUY Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

He does not think it is going away.  Oil may not turn for a couple of years.


Price:
$18.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-06 HOLD Bill Carrigan

A lot of analysts embrace the model, but these models are only good when the commodity is doing well.  It fought to stay above its peak for ages and then fell down.  He thinks it will hold in here.  Hold but don’t buy it.


Price:
$18.960
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
No
2015-07-31 DON'T BUY Lyle Stein

He thinks this whole business model is coming under question. The real fundamental question is, should resource companies be the significant generators of cash dividends, when in fact they need that capital, particularly as commodity prices continue to disappoint. The dividend doesn’t make sense because they need the capital to keep the regular business going.


Price:
$19.810
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-07-31 COMMENT David Cockfield

This is definitely going to survive, if any company is going to do well in this particular period of falling prices. Have good financing and good cash flows, and even covering their dividend at the present time. They’ve been good in hedging in terms of selling forward. He hopes they managed to pick up some of that $60 future oil when the market was in contango a month or so ago. Whether they can maintain that 14% dividend is open to question.


Price:
$19.810
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-30 COMMENT Robert Lauzon

He likes them.  The market is telling them it wants them to cut the dividend.  They still might not do it.  They didn’t have to earlier this year.  If oil is still $50 when these hedges roll off, CPG-T will have to cut the dividend within a couple of years.  The yield has spiked as the stock price came down.  CPG-T can’t issue equity with a 12-15% yield and make it accretive.  They should bring it down the 7-8%.  Management does not want to do this, but it is best.


Price:
$20.200
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-29 COMMENT Michael Sprung

Has always been a very well-managed company. For many years, although they didn’t earn it, it was largely supported by the DRIP program. As production and cash flow grew, they were able to cover that. They have run a very effective hedging program. Have 58% of their output hedged at around $88, and 2016 production hedged at around $83. Regarding cash flow, although numbers have come off considerably in the last while, he is still seeing forecasts for the next 2 years of about $4, which allows them to maintain that dividend. Have a lot of very good properties and a lot of potential properties to drill extensively over the next number of years.


Price:
$19.420
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-29 DON'T BUY James Telfser

Would probably be at the bottom of his list of energy stocks that he would buy. Always had a problem with them raising money to pay their dividends. They typically raise money which dilutes shareholders, and then the growth kind of disappears from that.


Price:
$19.420
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-28 WAIT Jim Huang

Leveraged to the oil price, which has come down to $47. They are pretty much 100% oil. Very good management team and good operators in good oil fields. The issue is with the dividend at around 12%, clearly unsustainable at the current price. He thinks a wise decision would be for them to cut the dividend. Wait for a cut in the dividend before buying.


Price:
$19.120
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-07-27 HOLD Bruce Campbell (1)

(Market Call Minute.) Dividend yield is now 14.7%. A Hold and maybe even a Buy at this level. They have hedges on through next year, so would only have to cut the dividend if oil stays at $45 for 18 months.


Price:
$18.750
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-24 COMMENT Jeff Young

Now back to 2008 levels, but it is not alone. A lot of these companies had very strong hedging books going into this year that have seen them come through. When oil had the bounce through the spring, it pushed those hedges out a little bit. It is very difficult to hedge now into 2016. Thinks it’s going to be 2018 before we see a $60 oil price.


Price:
$19.820
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-24 WAIT Jaime Carrasco

One of the better players in his portfolio. They will survive. He is waiting to add. Has noticed that inventory levels have started to flatten out in North America. His company has a $40 target and that the dividend is sustainable. However, he is not ready to add yet. Yield of around 14%.


Price:
$19.820
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
BULLISH on GOLD
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-23 PAST TOP PICK Martin Davies

(Top Pick Jun 25/14, Down 51.92%) The market thinks it should cut its dividend, but they are adamant they don’t have to do that.  13.6% is the dividend.  They have a relatively good balance sheet.  It is a buy here.  It is trading at 2008/09 levels.


Price:
$20.450
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL & GAS
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-22 COMMENT Allan Meyer

One of the better companies. Likes what they are doing. Good strong control. Picking up some of the weaker companies. The trouble is, you have low oil prices. Hopefully their hedges last long enough that they don’t have to start worrying about the current prices of oil. They have been able to hold their dividend in. There is a lot of pressure on oil. He is looking for oil to maintain at around $48. He is not a fan of oil and gas.


Price:
$21.000
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-21 WATCH Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

He sold all of his energy stocks last fall, hasn't dabbled back into it yet. It is a really interesting idea. If it could hold the December low, it could be an opportunity for a seasonal trade. Recommends sitting on the sidelines and watching.


 


Price:
$21.830
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-21 DON'T BUY Barry Schwartz

He doesn’t like high yielding companies in the commodity sector. It doesn’t make sense. Kudos to the management team for hedging, but aren’t they in the business to sell oil/gas at the highest price possible in the spot market? 12% yield is all you have to know to tell you that it is a dangerous situation.


Price:
$21.830
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-17 PARTIAL BUY Brendan Caldwell

This has been under a lot of pressure along with all the other energy companies. Recently bought some of their new issue. Their price has been really, really dependent on it paying its dividend. If they cut, the price would come off in a significant way. Having just done a very large equity issue recently, it is unlikely they will have a cut unless oil prices come under much more pressure. Doesn’t think this is a bad bet to nibble at.


Price:
$22.420
Subject:
CANADIAN VALUE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-16 BUY Douglas Kee

Likes the dividend on this, and believes that it is safe. They are making very astute acquisitions and adding onto their core property areas. The balance sheet is still in good shape. Have a good hedging program. Likes this comany longer-term. Dividend yield of 12%.


Price:
$22.800
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-15 COMMENT Bruce Tatters

Exited the majority of his energy exposure about a year ago. You can’t talk about an energy company in Canada without talking about the crude oil price. The US rig count has gone from 1600 down to 650 currently. Even by March it had hit about 825. Even with the massive drop in rig counts, we still haven’t seen production rollover in the US. Expects you have to see it start to rollover before you really ever see a sustained a rally in oil. Be patient and let some more time pass. Keep an eye on the weekly EIA report for production, and watch for an actual decline in production.


Price:
$23.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-15 BUY Don Lato

One of the energy names that you can step into. He doesn’t know when the turn is coming in the price of oil, so you have to be very careful if you are going to be in the sector. Stick to high-quality names like this. The yield is very attractive. Even if they have to shave it a little bit, it is not going to be the end of the world.


Price:
$23.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-07-14 HOLD Christine Poole

Over 90% of their production is crude oil, and the collapse in oil prices has not helped. A very strong balance sheet. Yielding 12%, which she thinks is safe because they have a very strong hedging program in place. They are notorious for issuing equity. They bought Legacy, which is a good transaction as it consolidates their land base in Saskatchewan. On top of that they issued another 23 million shares at $28.50 and the market questions why they did that issue when they are paying for Legacy transaction in stock. Just did another all stock acquisition. Thinks the selloff has been a bit overdone. There is probably more volatility coming, but over the long-term crude has to be higher than here over the next year or 2.


Price:
$26.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-13 COMMENT Rick Stuchberry

He owns this for yield. The company is doing all the right things, but the difficulty is that the oil price is going in the wrong direction. They are buying assets at a great price. Great balance sheet. Doesn’t think there is much they can do until energy prices stabilize. Management has stated that they have no intention of cutting the 12% dividend yield.


Price:
$26.070
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-13 COMMENT John O'Connell, CFA

From a macro perspective, oil and gas stocks are really trading very, very light right now. This one is suffering from 2 things. First they did a transaction to take over Legacy. It was a smart transaction and helps them consolidate their complete control over the Saskatchewan assets, which are good ones. They financed it through a share exchange ratio, and there have been some risk arbitrage trades, which are putting additional pressure on the company. On top of that they once again issued equity at higher numbers to finance a previous transaction. Have been quite acquisitive recently, which is not a bad thing. The problem is that they are always buying assets and issuing equity. This is very, very dilutive. He is not a big fan although he thinks the dividend is sustainable.


Price:
$26.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-10 COMMENT John Stephenson

This is probably been the best run oil/gas company. 90% oil. Overall, the prospects are very good. Like every energy company it is going to be affected by oil prices. In terms of balance sheet strength and location of the properties, it is a very strong company. Overall, he likes the name, but he is bearish on the industry. He doesn’t see any risk on the 11.5% dividend.


Price:
$26.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-10 WAIT Kash Pashootan

Quite bearish on energy because he thinks there is still more time for the dust to settle. This is one of the higher-quality names. Have hedged their bets, so haven’t been as affected as some of the others. That is not going to last forever. Also, have a large dividend with a yield of about 10.5%, which is a pretty big burden. What is positive is that this is a time when they can leverage their balance sheet.


Price:
$26.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDENDS
Bias:
DEFENSIVE
Owned:
No
2015-07-09 DON'T BUY David Burrows

This group is under pressure. A lot of people bought energy over the last several months thinking it is cheap and that oil prices have to move higher. His contention is that with lots of capital available and new technology that is very efficient at finding new energy, it is likely that the price deck is going to stay low for quite some time. Hedge funds, in particular, went double weight this year, and in the last few weeks, have been throwing in the towel. In this company, the risk is that we are trading virtually on the lows and a lot of people owned this for the dividends. If for some reason the company decides they are going to need to cut the dividend, there are a lot of people that are going to sell their stock.


Price:
$26.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULL on US EQUITIES
Owned:
No
2015-07-07 TOP PICK John Zechner

He is warming up more to the large oil companies, but he wouldn’t call himself a bull on oil. Thinks OPEC is going to draw more of a line in the sand on defending a $60-$70 oil price. That gives him comfort that we are not heading to $30-$40 oil. They hedged forward all this year’s  production at better than $80 a barrel and are now using their balance sheet to make accretive acquisitions. They are buying some of the depressed, distressed juniors. Dividend yield of 10.59%.


Price:
$26.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-06 DON'T BUY Norman Levine

He used to own it but no longer does.  The dividend looked safe because of hedging.  But he sold because they can’t continue to hedge out at a price like that. He wonders about the long term safety of the dividend.  They have been making a lot of acquisitions to grow and they kept issuing stock that diluted the stock. They are starting to do that again.


Price:
$25.810
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-07-03 COMMENT Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Hasn’t owned this for about 4 years. Wasn’t a big fan of all the deals they kept doing. He knows there have been some good trading opportunities in this, but he is generally not a big fan of the space. Probably a pretty good value play down here, but he has other things working and has no room in the portfolio for it.


Price:
$25.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-06-29 BUY on WEAKNESS Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

The December low is going to hold.  He wants to be accumulating for the next 10 percent lower.  Beyond the noise of today, this is a buying opportunity for today.


Price:
$25.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-23 WEAK BUY Paul Taylor

It is a very credible management team. Energy may not be where you want to fish right now, but this one is good if your outlook is 3 to 5 years.  This will be one of those survivors in the energy patch.


Price:
$27.280
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BEARISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-22 BUY Michele Robitaille

High dividend yield.  There is a concern in the marketplace about the sustainability of the dividend, although she is comfortable with it.  If oil stayed here or went lower then she would reconsider the dividend sustainability.  She is cautious about stepping into oil plays in a big way, however.


Price:
$26.690
Subject:
HIGH YIELD EQUITIES & REITS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-06-22 PAST TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(Top Pick May 20/14, Down 34.64%)  He is down because of the oil mess.  He talked to the company extensively and it is one of the best run companies in the country.  It is going to be a true mid to large cap producer.  They acquire land or companies with land.  They keep on issuing equity to pay for acquisitions.  In the latest deal they picked up 700 wells that are conducive to water flood with recover rates of 15-25%.  Despite all the issuance of new shares, you look at the production growth per share and it is positive.


Price:
$26.690
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-06-18 COMMENT Greg Newman

Just issued a lot more equity, which is helping to protect their balance sheet. Paying a real high dividend. Debt to cash flow is pretty high at around 2.5X. There are better ways to be making money than this. If you have it, OK.


Price:
$27.340
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-15 BUY Teal Linde

50% of production is hedged over 90%.  As time goes by the hedges roll over and then cash flow will come down.  The 10% yield they can maintain.


Price:
$27.040
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-06-12 BUY Swanzy Quarshie

Thinks this one is a Buy in this kind of environment. You do want to be in a company where their capital is essentially going to be safe. This is a call option on higher oil prices. Did an acquisition of Legacy Oil, which is a very good acquisition. It is accretive and right in their backyard. She thinks the market is getting fatigued with their deals.


Price:
$26.960
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-10 TOP PICK Dennis Da Silva

Acquiring Legacy (LEG-T). They have garnered a reputation for being a serial issuer. In this kind of oil price environment, people probably now appreciate that they issued stock and didn’t leverage up to do a lot of deals they did. Leaves them in a strong position. The 10.08% dividend is safe given the hedging they have in place for this year, and about a 3rd into 2016. The balance sheet is still solid.


Price:
$27.470
Subject:
CANADIAN RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-06-10 COMMENT Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Had good support of around $35 for a number of years. Currently there is a shorter term support at around $27.50, which it has tested a couple of times. If it doesn’t hold this level, it would probably go to the low it had at the end of December and the low $20s. Dividend yield of around 10%.


Price:
$27.470
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-06-09 HOLD Christine Poole

The company did an equity issue to buy Legacy a couple of weeks ago. Got it at a good price and it is going to be a good acquisition for them longer-term. The company has cut capital spending. Have a very good hedging position this year. Dividend yield of 10.2%, and they would rather cut capital spending rather than cut the dividend.


Price:
$27.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-06-08 WEAK BUY Eric Nuttall

Raised $600 Million a week or two ago to fund an acquisition, which he likes.  He likes CPG-T.  If we get to $60 oil it could be a $30-$32 stock.  People don’t like the sustainability of the dividend.  They were at 135% payout, but after this acquisition it lowers the payout by about 10 points.  Their dividend should be seen as more sustainable.  He doesn’t see the dividend being cut. 


Price:
$26.490
Subject:
OIL, GAS & SMALL-CAP CANADIAN
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-08 COMMENT Michael Sprung

There have been a number of moving parts lately. Just acquired Legacy, which was a big acquisition. In order to do so, they had to raise capital, which increased debt to cash flow to around 3.4 times. Also, increased their payout ratio to over 100%. They are not earning their dividend, so are depending again on their DRIP program. Yield of around 10%, is usually a worrying sign. He is not adding to his position, but is watching it carefully.


Price:
$26.490
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-06-04 COMMENT Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Recently did a new issue again. They are very busy, and he applauds them on how busy they are. Their balance sheet is pretty strong and they have the flexibility to maintain that dividend. But they absolutely have to have the oil price recover, and he doesn’t believe that will happen.


Price:
$27.330
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2015-06-03 COMMENT Alex Ruus

On this one, you really have to have an outlook on where you think oil is going. If you are bullish on oil, this is one of the plays to own. A dominant producer in the Bakken in Saskatchewan. Recently acquired Legacy, which had good assets that were complementary to this company’s holdings. He sees oil in the next 6 months as flat to slightly down, but as we go into next year it should start to rise. This would be one of the positions he would be comfortable owning here.


Price:
$28.030
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-01 HOLD Peter Hodson

He has always had a problem with them constantly issuing equity.  He would prefer a company that didn’t need to do it.  The Legacy acquisition is okay.  He likes them more now than last year because more of their assets are outside of Alberta.  If the cycle turns, the acquisition will look really good.  Don’t worry about the dividend.


Price:
$28.030
Subject:
CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias:
BULLISH on SMALL CAPS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-01 TOP PICK Bruce Campbell (1)

Acquired Legacy (LEG-T) and had to assume some debt to do some equity. In a sense that is the kiss of death for some people, but this is an accretive acquisition and you didn’t want them to do it for all debt. The equity issue is at $28.50 and the stock is still $.50 underwater. Thinks that at around $28 with a 2.76% dividend, it gives you almost a 10% yield. If it goes back to where it was 2 days before the acquisition, the stock will be up 10 from here and with a 10% dividend, $31 a year from now gives you a 20% return. Yield of 9.85%.


Price:
$28.030
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-05-27 COMMENT Bill Bonner

The behaviour in the market today would suggest that the financing they did didn’t go as smoothly as what they had hoped. Just acquired Legacy (LEG-T), which was a name that he liked once. As time marched on, their balance sheet just overcame all the upside. Crescent Point is getting some outstanding assets. This is one of the best Saskatchewan operators, but he prefers others.


Price:
$28.190
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-05-26 COMMENT Norman Levine

This is a serial acquirer and issuer of shares. This works great for investment bankers, but not as great for shareholders over time. They have had a tendency of buying in areas that are contiguous where they already have operations. He liked them when they were not buying and issuing shares. Recently sold his holdings.


Price:
$29.820
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-05-19 DON'T BUY Brian Acker, CA

His model price is $5.62. They are paying out $2.76. Earnings for 2015 is a negative $0.10 and a negative $0.09 for 2016. Yield is 9.41%.


Price:
$28.750
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US$
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-14 HOLD Allan Meyer

One of the best managed companies out there.  They do a recycle ratio that is very good (money put into the ground and oil coming back out).  He likes it and has a bit in some accounts.


Price:
$29.430
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-05-13 COMMENT Michael Decter

This is his largest energy holding. The CEO is one of the strongest entrepreneurs in the energy patch. A lot of the assets they have include a lot of production in Saskatchewan, which hasn’t had a change in government. Also, in Utah and North Dakota. This is a very good company to be in. The dividend is sustainable.


Price:
$29.620
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-05-12 COMMENT David Baskin

Have terrific properties in Western Canada. Produce very high quality crude and are a fairly low cost producer. Like everybody else in the energy field, they are a price taker. They don’t get to determine what the price for their commodity is going to be. His vision is that we are going to see energy prices drop fairly sharply from their current level. Because of this, he is not buying any energy companies at the moment and doesn’t own any.


Price:
$29.300
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-05-11 TOP PICK Ryan Bushell

(Top Pick Jun 5/14, Down 27.26%) It has held up okay considering the sector.  They did not cut the dividend in 2008 and aren’t considering cutting it now.  They are run very conservatively.  They are a low cost producer.  They have a deep asset inventory.  Only 6% of production is in Alberta.  9.18% dividend.


Price:
$29.880
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-05-06 BUY John Stephenson

A great company. When you look at the oil/gas space, this is a company that has rarely if ever missed their earnings or their production. They also have some of the best assets around. This is a good time to be adding to this name.


Price:
$30.740
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-29 COMMENT Bruce Tatters

Energy stocks have had a terrific run recently, and we are at the point where a lot of them are anticipating higher energy prices. He is not sure energy prices will move a lot higher from where they are. Would prefer some of the alternative plays that are still at their bottoms such as service plays or sand producers which are still at their lows.


Price:
$31.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-28 HOLD Michael Sprung

A very well-managed company. Made some significant acquisitions in land areas that give them potential drilling targets for years to come. He expects them to live beyond the current problems in the industry with a good chance to prosper again. At this level it is a good longer term hold.


Price:
$31.500
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-04-27 PAST TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(A Top Pick April 28/14. Up down 22.03%.) He plans on buying when it goes below $30. They have an inventory of about 7500 wells, which will keep them going for quite a while. Most of the wells are eligible for a secondary water flood, which can give the production rate quite a boost. He thinks they will continue to do well and will maintain their dividend.


Price:
$32.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2015-04-23 DON'T BUY Greg Newman

At $50 oil this year, he sees 154% payout ratio for 2015. Debt to cash flow is 2.4% this year and widens to 3.2% next year. Still not bad relative to the group.


Price:
$32.290
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-17 COMMENT Norman Levine

Sold his holdings because he was convinced that the price of oil was not going anywhere soon. This one has held up way better and has acted way better than a lot of oil stocks. It has great land positions. Also, management has very prudently hedged about 60% of their production at around $90 a barrel. The dividend is safe under current conditions, but he questions if it is safe next year if oil prices stay at a low level.


Price:
$32.380
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-04-16 COMMENT Kash Pashootan

He has been negative on energy for a while. The only “close to oil/gas” name he owns would be Enbridge (ENB-T). The dividend on this is safe for now, i.e. over the next 6 months. Anything longer than that is really a wildcard. You don’t want to bet the farm on the fact that they are hedged and that the dividend won’t go down.


Price:
$32.370
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDENDS
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
No
2015-04-14 HOLD Christine Poole

High quality light crude out of Western Canada. Like all energy companies, they have cut their CapX by 28%, but have maintained their dividend. Yielding around 9%. Have a very strong hedge program in place. She doesn’t think they will cut their dividend unless crude stays down here for a prolonged period of time.


Price:
$31.460
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-04-10 PAST TOP PICK David Cockfield

(A Top Pick April 8/14. Down 18.99%.) He still likes this and has added to his position at lower prices. It has been working its way back up. In the Bakken, one of the better areas. Expects they will make some acquisitions that will be very advantageous to them. Feels the dividend is relatively safe.


Price:
$30.760
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-04-06 WAIT Josef Schachter

Great company. Has a very attractive yield of $.23-$.76 for the year. Stock is trading at $30.80. The low for the stock in December, when people were worried about them cutting their dividend, was $20.87. Balance sheet is in good shape. BV is around $23. Have a good hedging program. They are talking this year of spending $1.45 billion and having average production of 150- 2,500 BOE’s a day and paying that $2.76 dividend. You may want to hold your powder dry for the next 3 months.


Price:
$30.800
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-02 COMMENT Mason Granger

Financial leverage is about 1.8X debt to cash flow, which is very reasonable. The sustainability ratio, when you account for the dividend reinvestment program, is about 112%. They have a very disciplined three-year rolling hedging program. In 2015 they were about 45% hedged on their oil. In 2016, they’re something like 30%. All of the things are in place to keep it a very stable and sustainable dividend.


Price:
$29.840
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-03-30 BUY Martin Davies

It is a great strategy.  It started with buying existing oil fields with a very low recovery process.  They are producing at very good levels and the assets have a low decline rate.  This is a big advantage.  They have been very prudent with acquisitions.  They have a very strong hedging book.  65% of this year’s oil is sold forward at over $80 a barrel.


Price:
$28.760
Subject:
CANADIAN OIL & GAS
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-03-30 PAST TOP PICK Martin Davies

(Top Pick Jun 25/14, Down 36.76%) They are going out of their south east and south west Alberta asset base.  They are now in Utah.  They can take the technology from one area and apply it to another. 


Price:
$28.760
Subject:
CANADIAN OIL & GAS
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-03-23 WAIT John Stephenson

This is a name people love to hate.  They are in the right part of the energy chain.  The commodity is under pressure so wait until September or late August to get in.


Price:
$29.110
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-03-23 DON'T BUY Brooke Thackray

Stock vs. Stock.  CVE-T vs. CPG-T. He can’t call the bottom.  CPG-T has hedged a lot of its production for this year.  The pattern in the end is the same for both but if he had to choose one it would be CPG-T.


Price:
$29.110
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-03-19 COMMENT Andy Nasr

He likes the name.  The sustainability of the dividend is a call on the price of oil.  They hedged a good chunk of their production for 2015.  The dividend would not be safe if oil hovered around $40.  He thinks oil will go back up to $50-60 by the end of the year.


Price:
$28.210
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & REITs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-03-16 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (1)

Has a really high hedge at $89 for this year with about 33%-40% hedged for 2016 at $84. Good balance sheet and growth in production. They can pay the dividend out of cash flow. If oil is $43 a year from now, this would probably be rethought. You would have to have quite a draconian forecast for oil for them to have to cut.


Price:
$27.050
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-03-12 HOLD Christine Poole

Storage of oil is very high and we are going into a season where the inventories would build.  If oil went down to $10 or $20 it would not stay there because no one can produce oil at that price.  CPG-T is re-evaluating their cap x program later this spring and may cut it then.  They will cut cap x before cutting their dividend.


Price:
$28.060
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2015-03-11 COMMENT Keith Richards

This is a high dividend payer. Had a beautiful support level at $35. Up until the recent crash in the oil sector, you treated the stock by buying at the bottom of its trading range. That was broken through last year. Chart shows it is testing that $35, but failing. His feeling is that this will have a lid of around $35 and move sideways at this point.


Price:
$28.210
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-03-10 SELL David Burrows

Change from Crescent Point (CPG-T) to Vermilion Energy (VET-T)? We don’t have the thematic backdrop that is good for energy. Doesn’t think you should be switching horses from one energy stock to another. Thinks you should leave energy and move on to a different sector. Both are going to have difficulty if energy prices move lower. None of these dividends are safe if oil prices go lower.


Price:
$27.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US$
Owned:
Unknown
2015-03-10 COMMENT John O'Connell, CFA

This company has done a great job of executing. They keep telling you how many drilling locations they have in inventory, and yet they keep buying things and issuing equity and paying out a big dividend at the same time. You are investing your money in the company, to give it back to you through a dividend and you have to pay tax on it, and then they issue more equity to buy more oil/gas in the ground. Thinks they have saturated the market and are going to have to find new investors. Expects they are going to acquire something in the next 6 months which will put a lid on the stock. He would like them to make the acquisition by cutting their dividend.


Price:
$27.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-03-09 DON'T BUY John Zechner

His problem with this is that a lot of what is supporting the stock is the dividend. The dividend right now is probably around 130%-140% of what their annual cash flow would be, especially once their hedges start rolling off. Doesn’t know that the dividend is necessarily sustainable at these levels. They have a great stable of properties to drill on.


Price:
$28.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
No
2015-03-09 HOLD Teal Linde

The payout ratio was too high.  Their debt to cash flow is among one of the best.  They are criticized about their issuing of shares to finance acquisitions, and that has preserved the company until today.


Price:
$28.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-03-06 HOLD Jaime Carrasco

His company has a $47 target on this and doesn’t have any concern about the dividend. A very well-managed company. When the time is right, this is one that he would definitely be adding to.


Price:
$28.920
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-03-05 SELL Brian Acker, CA

This has never been one of his favourites.  It has a model price of $4.76 (yes, four dollars).  They pay out too much and are making a lot of capital expenditures.  It had a bounce and looks to be testing his EBV line at $22.60.


Price:
$29.860
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US MARKET
Owned:
Unknown
2015-03-04 COMMENT Bill Harris, CFA

On his list of about 10 things he would like to own, but his strategy has ended up slightly differently. If their hedges roll off and oil is still that $40-$45, the cash flow will be impacted. His hunch is that this company might get away with getting through this. Extremely well-run with very high margins. Great company.


Price:
$30.550
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-03-03 HOLD Dennis Da Silva

One of the granddaddies of the energy sector paying dividends. A core holding for him in any of his income portfolios. In a good position to be opportunistic in this market. There is a lot of talk of them spinning out assets, may be into a merger with a more troubled oil producer, to create a more growth oriented company.


Price:
$30.490
Subject:
CANADIAN RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2015-02-26 HOLD Douglas Kee

Likes this company. Pretty conservatively managed in that their balance sheet is not significantly leveraged. As part of their whole corporate thing, they Sell forward. This has hurt in the last couple of years, but is now helping them. Dividend is safe for the next 6-12 months if oil prices remain $50+ going on 12 months.


Price:
$30.990
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-02-24 SELL Barry Schwartz

If he owned this kind of company he would get rid of it in a heartbeat. He doesn’t believe these types of companies’ dividends are sustainable nor that their business plans are sustainable at $50 oil. They have no control over the underlying product they sell.


Price:
$31.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2015-02-23 PAST TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(Top Pick Feb 24/14, Down 14.10%) Thinks dividend is going to be maintained, but you have to be ready in case the oil price stays down.  It would still be a great company at a lower dividend.


Price:
$31.230
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2015-02-18 COMMENT David Cockfield

Had been buying more of this at around $25. One of the best oil producers in Canada. They are also in North Dakota. They hedged by selling forward a good part of their 2015 production. It is not without risks. He is concerned and is watching it. If the price of oil continues to hold in the current area, he would become more concerned. If the stock price dipped down a little, he might buy more, but otherwise he would be cautious. If you are going to hold an oil, this is the one to hold. Good dividend.


Price:
$31.980
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-02-12 BUY on WEAKNESS Swanzy Quarshie

There has been a big move in the stock and in the energy sector in the last month or so. Relatively speaking, this is the name you want to be in if you want to make an entry into the sector. She feels the dividend is safe. Have done well with cutting their CapX programs to make sure they can pay the dividend. Because they have the dividend reinvestment program, 30% of the dividend is paid for in shares, which gives them the ability to make sure that they have enough cash on the books to pay for the rest of the dividends. Have a very strong balance sheet, relative to the group, and a well regarded management team. If they transact again, they will issue shares, which might be a time to enter.


Price:
$32.500
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2015-02-12 WAIT Lorne Steinberg

He owns none of the Canadian Commodity sector.  Oil stocks are priced as if oil will rebound quickly to the $80-$85 range.  If oil stays below $70 then over time these oil stocks should all come down and that will be a buying opportunity. 


Price:
$32.500
Subject:
Deep Value Global Equities
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-02-11 BUY John Stephenson

Light oil. Good company. The real issue is the macro issue. This is the de facto Bakken/south east Saskatchewan player. The dividend is fine. It will be under pressure, but overall, this is a buy.


Price:
$31.880
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2015-02-09 COMMENT Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Well-run company. Good dividend coverage. The $35 range is the 1st place where it is going to have a little bit of trouble. Some of the indicators are starting to get overbought on the short term, which means it is probably going to start to test the December low.


Price:
$32.540
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-02-05 HOLD Robert Lauzon

Have done lots of equity issues over the last 5 years and a lot of viewers have bought because of this.  Because of their hedges he thinks they will not have to cut their dividend.  They have already had a good move to the upside and there may be names that you could get that would do better in the short term.


Price:
$31.810
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2015-02-02 HOLD John Zechner

He is not buying it here.  It is not trading at enough of a discount here.  The balance sheet is not in bad shape and they can grow their dividend in the next couple of years.  They hedged a lot of their production for a year or so.  They will be fine because of their hedging.


Price:
$30.770
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-01-30 COMMENT Greg Newman

Have been cutting CapX and stand ready to cut more. In spite of this, they still expect production to grow by about 9% this year. 41% of their 2015 production is hedged. Very sustainable relative to their peers, but even with these hedges, $50 oil and $3 natural gas, he feels the balance sheet will weaken and debt to cash flow will climb to 2.3% and cash flow per share will fall by about 33% and the effective payout ratio will rise to about 158%. The dividend is probably sustainable for this year. The only way he would buy this is if you believe the oil price weakness is temporary and you will have $55-$80 oil within the next 12-20 months.


Price:
$30.200
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-29 WAIT Ben Cheng

It has done very well in the last 30 days, outperforming many of the old ex-income trusts in the energy sector.  They will continue to pull back cap-x.  When oil prices go over $65 you will see more invigorated growth.


Price:
$28.830
Subject:
REITS, INCOME STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-26 WAIT Don Vialoux

Bottoms about now and goes higher right through until the beginning of May.  It has formed a base and broke out last week.  Crude bottoms at the beginning of February and then breaks out.


Price:
$30.930
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-23 HOLD Jaime Carrasco

One that has consistently grown and consistently paid a dividend. He is not too concerned about the dividend. They have a good balance sheet. He would wait to buy this, but would definitely not sell it. His company has this in a Sector Outperform with a $47 target.


Price:
$30.460
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-22 COMMENT Stan Wong

A higher-quality name. Have announced they are not going to decrease their dividend for the time being. Right now you are getting about a 9.5% dividend.


Price:
$29.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-22 HOLD David Cockfield

Company has dug in its heels and said it will maintain its dividend.  A fair amount of this and next year’s production is pre-sold.  If pricing stays where it is for another 3 to 4 months he might start to worry about the dividend.  He is not selling, but watching it closely.  It is one of the best managed oil companies.


Price:
$29.100
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-16 WAIT Kash Pashootan

There isn’t any evidence that we have reached any sort of stability in oil prices. There have been a couple of days where there has been less decline, but that sentiment can change very quickly. He has been bearish on energy for 4 years. If looking for an entry point, he would wait. This is one of the higher-quality names. If this energy weakness continues, even names like this will be at risk of cutting their dividends.


Price:
$30.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE - DIVIDEND
Bias:
DEFENSIVE
Owned:
No
2015-01-16 COMMENT Ryan Bushell

Has had an interesting record. Coming out of 2008, spot prices got down to the mid-$30 a barrel range, and this company was able to maintain its dividend at that point. Currently they are on track to maintain their dividend through this cycle, but it all depends on how fast the oil price comes back. He feels this company has built itself as good as one can in terms of a conservative balance sheet, good properties and a propensity to work hard at maintaining the dividend. This is about as good as you are going to get in terms of dividend sustainability in a light oil producer in Canada. There might be another buying opportunity for you in the next few months.


Price:
$30.070
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-13 COMMENT Christine Poole

Came out last week and cut their CapX spending by 28% and indicated that the dividend was safe. They hadn’t cut their dividend even in the 2008 recession, so they are very cognizant of the fact that they have a shareholder base that needs the income. She expects they will continue to cut CapX to maintain the dividend. Have a very active hedging program in place and about half their 2015 production is hedged at $90 Cdn, which is going to moderate lower spot prices. Unless crude stays at $45-$50 for the balance of the year, she doesn’t anticipate that they will have to touch the dividend.


Price:
$26.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-12 HOLD Norman Levine

He does not think it is the time to buy any oil or gas stock.  He has it in income accounts.  They say their dividend is safe.  They are the most hedged oil and gas company in Canada.  Over half is hedged above $90.  That doesn’t tell him what happens next year.  It is one of the well capitalized names that he would look at it he was going to buy energy.


Price:
$27.230
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-09 COMMENT Andy Nasr

Pretty compelling value if you have a longer-term time horizon. Doesn’t think the dividend is necessarily at risk, unless oil stays right where it is. He views the current decline as being somewhat transitory in nature and thinks the commodity price will go back up. Companies like this, that are relatively well capitalized, should benefit as the commodity price rebounds. Operationally, they have done a very good job of diversifying their business. In hindsight, the acquisitions they made were a little bit expensive, but they do have hedges in place that hopefully will stabilize the balance sheet and be able to push them through 2015 until you see the commodity price go up.


Price:
$28.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND & REITs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-08 WATCH Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

He would have liked to have seen it hold the level at $35. The fact that it didn’t is telling him that it isn’t going to get above that level and will be spending a lot of time doing some basing. His data also indicates that it wants to drop below its low and come back to the $18-$20 range. He would continue to watch it. If it does get above the $35 level, that will become its new support.


Price:
$27.240
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-07 HOLD Michael Sprung

(He has some positions in some small accounts.) An extremely well-run and well-managed company. The properties they bought give them drilling opportunities going forward for a number of years. With prices coming off as severely as they have recently, they have cut back on their capital expenditure plans from about $2 billion to $1.5 billion. Exited 2014 at about 145,000 barrels a day and are expected to average about that amount this year, which would be an increase over 2014. If the environment is still as bad as it is in 6 months, they would have to take a look at the dividend. If there was a turn around in commodity prices, this company would really benefit.


Price:
$25.940
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-06 COMMENT Bill Carrigan

Today they announced they are cutting its capital expenditure program, but maintaining its dividend. The key for all names that have high CapX and are returning money to shareholders, is how long that energy stays down. If crude stays down longer than 12 weeks, then we are going to have some problems. If we go into March and we still have these low prices, then we are going to start to have problems. Market is not worried about crude being down now, but for how long it is going to be down. He would be very careful on this.


Price:
$25.130
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
BEAR on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-05 WATCH Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

He likes the energy sector, big picture.  It is a no brainer investment over the next 5 to 10 years.  But it is going to be a tough year until we get stabilization.  He thinks a lot of the bad news is priced in.  He does not think an oil price at $30 is justified.  Supply and demand fundamentals should create a bottom here.  This is where you want to be a buyer, not a seller.  There is some risk, however, that the dividend could get cut.


Price:
$24.860
Subject:
SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-02 HOLD John Stephenson

Thinks the dividend is okay and sustainable. One of the things this company has done really well is that they have the best properties around. A fantastic management team. The problem they have is that it is a growth and income oriented vehicle. Where is the growth component, is it really going to be there in this low commodity priced environment? 10% yield.


Price:
$27.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
BEARISH on RESOURCES
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-29 TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(A Top Pick Dec 30/13. Down 27.52%.) He wouldn’t buy at this point, but would wait until there was a further decline in oil prices, which he thinks will probably happen. Every growth oriented portfolio should have a position in this company. Feels this is the best run company in this country. Yield of 9.91%.


Price:
$27.840
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-23 WATCH Brooke Thackray

Oil tends to pick up from a seasonal basis in February. It can bounce around in January. The big worry here is that people are questioning if they are going to cut the dividend. He would be looking at stepping into this when there is a more solid rebound in the energy sector.


Price:
$28.480
Subject:
SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-22 WAIT Don Vialoux

A typical classic seasonal stock. Canadian energy sector, and particularly this stock, tends to have a lot of problems at this time of year. The period of seasonal strength is from the end of January right through until May of each year. At this time of year, the stock goes down. It had a huge recovery last week. It is going to go sideways with all kinds of volatility, but is going to form a nice little base. Take another look at the stock at around the end of January and add to it.


Price:
$27.750
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
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1 Comment

mylund

December 19th 2013 at 12:44pm

Who would be railing their crude in North America?


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