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Crescent Point Energy Corp Stock Symbol: CPG-T

Last Price Recorded: $38.4700 on 2014-10-22 01:14:11

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2014-10-20 BUY Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

He turned negative 4-6 months ago.  Now he bought it at $36-$37 and it is neutral to up a little right now.  You don’t need to rush into it as you will see a lot of up and down in this sector.  Wait for the Russia/Ukraine situation to be resolved. 


Price:
$38.100
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & ETF's
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-20 DON'T BUY David Baskin

Cash flow per share is the more important metric.  Don’t get fussed about the high PE ratio.  The cash flow has to pay the big dividend and replace assets as they deplete.  He has never been bullish on CPG-T because their payout seems overly optimistic.  The payout ratio is unsustainable if oil prices stay low for any period of time.  If they cut the dividend then the stock will fall like a rock.  He only has SU-T and CNQ-T.


Price:
$38.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-10-17 HOLD Eric Nuttall

120% payout ratio with low oil prices.  But their cash flow sensitivity is not that related to the oil price.  The dividend is safe. 


Price:
$37.680
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-17 DON'T BUY James Hodgins

Dividend stability depends on the price of oil.  If oil falls, he thinks either cap X or the dividend will have to be cut.  Does not like names with relatively high debt that attract investors with the yield.


Price:
$37.680
Subject:
MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING: SMALL/MID-CAP
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-16 HOLD Stan Wong

You do not want to sell these names at this point. This one is giving you a 7.5% yield. In fact he has been looking at buying some of these names.


Price:
$36.800
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-14 COMMENT Brian Acker, CA

Recently did a stock issue, so his figures do not include this. He would like to see the new balance sheet when it comes in. Not a fan of this. This is the 1st time in 4-5 years that it is actually trading below his model price calculation. Thinks this is on its way down to $32.


Price:
$35.010
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-14 COMMENT Bruce Tatters

For a very long time, this company had a higher multiple and used its paper to issue, acquire and grow. It is a very large company now. Has been a good operator. Doesn’t have an enormous amount of debt and pays a very, very high yield. The question is how long does oil stay down. In really low oil prices, these shale oil plays are not the ones to look at for a safe haven in dividends. It is the bigger names that don’t have decline rates and have better balance sheets.


Price:
$35.010
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-10 PAST TOP PICK David Cockfield

(A Top Pick Oct 22/13. Down 3.82%.) Down, but this is just a measure of the panic in the market. This is one of his favourite stocks. Pays an excellent dividend of well over 7%. Have an excellent production record. $81 US for Bakken oil now. A fantastic operator and they have years of drilling to do.


Price:
$36.820
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-09 SELL David Burrows

(Market Call Minute) Great company, but wrong sector.  He came out of this one some time ago.


Price:
$37.040
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US MARKET
Owned:
No
2014-10-08 BUY Michael Sprung

Very well managed company. Have built up an inventory for which they are going to be able to drill into and increase production. With this correction, he would certainly be looking at buying this.


Price:
$38.120
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-07 COMMENT Christine Poole

The drop in the large-cap energy producers has really been predicated by the drop in crude oil prices. Even though WTI is around $88, the spread that the producers are getting has been narrowing, which is positive. Also, the Cdn$ has been weaker and crude is paid in US$, which dampens the price drop somewhat. Doesn’t think there is a lot of downside left in crude prices. This company has a very attractive dividend and very high quality light oil crude. Net backs are very high and she feels the dividend is safe. You could start picking at it, but you might want to wait until the crude price stabilizes.


Price:
$38.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-06 COMMENT Zachary Curry

Feels that the dividend is safe. Made a great acquisition about a year ago in Utah that has worked out quite well, US$ denominated and close to refining. The biggest issue against them is that they are serial issuers. Every deal they do, they issue more equity. Management has grown the company well. He is positive on this name.


Price:
$39.170
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2014-10-03 BUY Bill Bonner

Dividends are healthy and it is one of the most sustainable dividend models he follows.  Criticized for constantly issuing equity.  They do so because they can.  That takes the buying wind out of their sails.


Price:
$39.620
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-03 BUY Bruce Campbell (1)

Dividend is very safe.  Based on cash flow it is well covered.  You will not see an increase for a while.  He would buy with new money here today.


Price:
$39.620
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-02 PAST TOP PICK Ryan Bushell

(Top Pick Sep 23/13, Up 8.72%) He continues to be impressed with the discipline in their business model.  Not every oil and gas company runs their company in a sustainable long term time horizon.  They continue to accumulate assets in areas they are already in to have better production from their wells longer term.  Hold it as a core holding and collect the 7% yield and see where you are at 10 years from now.


Price:
$39.250
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-01 WAIT Don Vialoux

It is having a difficult time.  On a seasonal basis, it is performing well.  It performs well from Jan-May of each year.  It is now in a downward, trend, underperforming the market and below its 20 day moving average.  Take a look in January.


Price:
$39.540
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2014-09-29 BUY on WEAKNESS Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Fine company and good dividend payer.  We had this correction.  You have a head and shoulders developing right now.  He thinks it might go a dollar lower before turning around. 


Price:
$40.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-09-29 HOLD Norman Levine

Holds it for income clients.  The dividend is healthy and safe.  The price of oil is vulnerable so it is just a hold here.  He is not a fan of the fact that they are a serial acquirer and issuer of stock.  They took a break in that and so now feels better about it.


Price:
$40.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-26 BUY Michael Bowman

He has a real problem with oil sands oil.  The world is really down on it.  CPG is a premier company in a fantastic field.  It is light oil. 


Price:
$40.110
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL SERVICES COMPANIES
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-25 BUY Michele Robitaille

Equity issue hides the actual operating results.  You could see a little bit more sell off here.  The market is overdue for a consolidation, however.  If you can get in here it has good fundamentals.


Price:
$39.280
Subject:
HIGH YIELD EQUITIES & REITS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-09-25 BUY Genevieve Roch-Decter

Just did an $800Million equity issue.  All the deals recently in the energy space are under water.  This is a long term hold.  She thinks the management is outstanding.  They are ahead of the curve in crude by rail and get the highest net backs.  Canadians can sell their oil anywhere, unlike the US.  She would buy it here as it is a bargain.


Price:
$39.280
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-23 HOLD Ross Healy

Doesn’t think the current setback is anything serious.


Price:
$40.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-09-23 COMMENT Rick Stuchberry

In big pools of oil and they know where the oil is. It’s all about keeping costs down, which they are very good at. Has dropped a bit in the last little while because the price of crude went from $107 to $91. They are hedged for part of their production, so the dividend is safe. Every time they drill a well, it costs them $3-$5 million so they have to be financed. Just did an issue. That, plus the weakness in the oil market, caused the stock to come off a little.


Price:
$40.000
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-22 TOP PICK Peter Brieger

Oil has stopped going down.  They have already drilled 700 wells and secondary recovery techniques can be applied to half of those.  They have an inventory of 7,600 wells to which the same technique can be applied.


Price:
$40.360
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-17 COMMENT Brian Acker, CA

The issue here is that it is now an $18 billion company, but the stock price hasn’t moved. They issue capital basically to keep the dividend out. They do acquisitions. Now in the US because they have probably dried up all the capital in Canada for a company of this size. His model price is $38.33, a 10% discount. If you are looking for appreciation, you are not going to get it here.


Price:
$42.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US$
Owned:
Unknown
2014-09-16 COMMENT John O'Connell, CFA

They have done a great job of executing. They have sold so much equity and it is owned by so many retail investors and portfolio managers that they need to go and find some new investors. They also need to say to Canadian dealers who have made a killing selling new issues for them, “We’re going to the US and hire Merrill Lynch and find some new investors.”. These deals are just too big. Company has done a great job of executing, but it is strictly a case of flow of funds, too many shares in too few accounts.


Price:
$42.360
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-09-12 BUY Bruce Campbell (1)

Just acquired Lightstream Resources and issued shares for $750 million. This will be about 3% accretive to cash flow per share. This is contiguous land and makes a lot of sense. He bought more shares when it pulled back from $42. 7% yield. Cheap valuation. Thinks this will be fine going forward.


Price:
$41.990
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-11 HOLD Teal Linde

They had a great year.  They have had success with their completion process.  Water flood techniques are being put into a fuller scale.  The recent acquisition will be very accretive. 


Price:
$42.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2014-09-10 BUY Alex Ruus

Just did a big equity issue, and is under water from that. This is a good Buying opportunity. Pays a nice dividend. Executing really, really well. Great positions in the Bakken and Three Forks. This year we are going to start to see some really interesting results coming out of Utah.


Price:
$42.420
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-09 BUY David Burrows

(Market Call Minute.) This is at risk to the energy prices, but they have a shareholder base who bought this for the distributions and dividends. This will pay you along the way so if you want energy exposure, this is a good one to own. Good defensive play.


Price:
$42.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULL
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-09 BUY Christine Poole

Their acquisitions have generated criticism in the last couple of years. Stopped doing that for a while and focused on internal development. Have just acquired a land package which is expanding their holdings in their core area. This is positive. Has pulled back a little so it is an attractive time to Buy or to build a position. Very nice yield of over 6% which she feels can be fully supported.


Price:
$42.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-05 WATCH Norman Levine

Acquired an asset of Lightstream Resources.  They issued lots of shares to grow the company in the past and held back over the last couple of years and that has helped the share price.  Now they are doing it again and the question is if this will hurt shareholders.  He does not mind this latest deal.


Price:
$43.040
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on GLOBAL STOCKS
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-04 TOP PICK Douglas Kee

6.41% sustainable dividend yield. Payout ratio of 140% which is expected to drop to 105% next year, so he feels the dividend is safe. Growth is through acquisitions, but just as importantly, they grow through increasing production. They buy a lot of raw land and explore it.


Price:
$43.090
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-03 BUY Philippe Capelle

They do a lot of deals and this is probably a good entry point because they probably won’t do another deal for 6 months. The dividend is safe.


Price:
$43.170
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (RESOURCE)
Bias:
BULLISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-03 COMMENT Jim Huang

Down about 3% today on news of their Whitestream acquisition. Have a dominant position in the Saskatchewan oil patch. Basically have long life reserves which they can exploit with enhanced oil recovery methods. They continue to solidify their position. It always trades at a high valuation in the light oil space and they continue to do a lot of acquisitions diluting themselves and probably over distributing on dividends. However, it has very good asset qualities. If you are a dividend oriented investor, you can probably hold on to it, or even buy some on the current dip.


Price:
$43.170
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-27 BUY Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Looks a little bit top heavy. Chart shows a head and shoulders formation. Downside is rather limited at about $42. Looks like it is in the lower end of the range in a channel. To him, the risk/reward would be pretty good. Likes the space. Decent yield of 6.2%.


Price:
$44.830
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-25 TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(A Top Pick Aug 27/13. Up 24.72%.) 6.2% dividend yield. Have continuously bought land, which is highly prospective. Essentially, the recovery rate for the Bakken type wells that they drill is 15%-20%. 20%-30% for a normal conventional well. There are 750 wells that they think they can use their water flood and production liner techniques to enhance the recovery and get it up to 20%, maybe higher. They have an inventory of 7650 wells going forward, to which they can apply these techniques. $53 would be a reasonable estimate. Yield of 6.17%.


Price:
$44.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-08-22 DON'T BUY Don Vialoux

Tends to be an oily stock rather than gassy stock.  CPG is having a tough time as is oil.  It broke through a support level and has established a downtrend.  All three of his technicals are negative for this stock.  There are better opportunities available elsewhere.


Price:
$44.870
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-22 COMMENT Jeff Young

Very high quality management team. Just one of those companies that gets it done over and over. Has decent per-share growth of 7%-8% expectancies for this year. You’re paying top dollar for it, but you are getting a high-quality company as well.


Price:
$44.870
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-08-19 BUY Christine Poole

Likes the yield of over 6%.  It pulled back with crude.  They have been focused on drilling and organic growth over the last year.  They have a great land position.  Thinks they can maintain their production growth.  Their distribution was never cut even in the recession even though they have never increased it. 


Price:
$44.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned:
Yes
2014-08-19 BUY Keith Richards

There is a big lid on the stock in the mid-$40. A high dividend payer of 6.25%. If you like the dividend, there is nothing wrong with this company. Not a bad place to be buying but he doesn’t expect a lot of upside.


Price:
$44.070
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2014-08-18 BUY John Stephenson

(Market Call Minute) A bench mark name.


Price:
$43.490
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-01 BUY Norman Levine

Likes this and owns it in income accounts. The 6.3% dividend yield is safe. Likes the acquisitions it has done in the past.


Price:
$43.860
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-30 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (2)

After they made the acquisition in Utah and came out with the numbers there, the stock moved up, but of late it has pulled back along with the rest of the sector. Very well run company.


Price:
$44.830
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-07-29 BUY Ross Healy

He sees energy stocks as being reasonable value here. This one has done well. There is now a setback in the group, but he thinks this is a setback on its way to higher levels. He can see 30%-40% ahead from here.


Price:
$44.750
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-07-28 TOP PICK Peter Brieger

The oil and gas companies will be facing the tax man as tax pools run out.  But CPG-T is nowhere near that point.  They are aggressive in acquiring company’s land.  They are perfecting water flood secondary recovery. 


Price:
$44.780
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-25 COMMENT Eric Nuttall

(Market Call Minute.) This is a core holding. He typically sells in the high $40’s and buys in the low $40’s. This will be $60 stock in 3-4 years.


Price:
$45.220
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-23 TOP PICK Stan Wong

Has pulled back recently, so it’s a good time to add more shares. Feels energy prices will remain pretty firm. They just announced production guidance for 2014 that it is going to be higher. Will probably sustain their current levels based on economic movements and economic recovery, especially with geopolitical problems happening globally. 6.1% yield.


Price:
$45.290
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-21 BUY Bruce Campbell (1)

The 6% plus dividend yield is not a concern to him. Lots of growth in production. This is a good entry point. He sees this going back to $50-$52 a year from now.


Price:
$44.160
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-18 PAST TOP PICK Mohsin Bashir

(A Top Pick June 20/13. Up 32.76%.) Has been a beneficiary of the rise in energy. A former trust, so pays a very hefty dividend. Focused on light and medium oil as well as their water flood technology, which really expands the productivity of the recovery capability on their wells. Some pretty good catalysts lining up for this one.


Price:
$44.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-16 BUY on WEAKNESS Bill Bonner

Did a great job hedging production. Have great currency to go to for their acquisitions and fully expects that is the path they go down. Their asset base is probably the most prolific, most economic play in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin, the Bakken, and there is a dividend attached. This is a name you acquire on any kind of weakness.


Price:
$44.170
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
BULLISH on NATURAL GAS
Owned:
No
2014-07-16 BUY Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Just bought more of this last week. After many years of acquisitions, they are now having operational momentum, and the stock price is reacting favourably.


Price:
$44.170
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on CDN ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-14 BUY on WEAKNESS Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

We are now testing May highs.  This is an okay entry point for a short term trade.  Longer term we should be patient.  For longer term, wait to buy until the low $40s.


Price:
$44.520
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-07-10 COMMENT Zachary Curry

He is pretty positive on this company. Made a big acquisition in Utah a few years ago, which he thinks is going to play out for them quite well. The biggest knock against this company is that they continued to issue stock frequently, but not so much lately. Pays a good yield. There are worse companies that you could own in the energy space.


Price:
$44.670
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-07-08 BUY Christine Poole

Large land position, production growth is pretty good.  Dividend is flat at $1.20 and she is not expecting a dividend increase. They will grow production at a steady rate.  High net backs.  She would buy it around here as it has pulled back.


Price:
$45.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-03 DON'T BUY Brian Acker, CA

Model price is $38.71, a 17% downside.  There are great profits happening in the oil patch so this one is overpriced.  Prefers WCP-T.


Price:
$46.440
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULL
Owned:
No
2014-07-02 PAST TOP PICK David Cockfield

(A Top Pick July 19/13. Up 29.02%.) Still one of his core stocks because of the dividends. It is now pushing back into its higher range, so he is a little concerned. Also, worries about flood problems in Saskatchewan.


Price:
$46.920
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
DEFENSIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-06-25 TOP PICK Martin Davies

Have been getting new types of formations, but more importantly, they have been taking their old discoveries, and using water floods to drive ahead that old decline, long life, repeatable type of asset. On some of the best oil assets in the Bakken and Viking formations. Yield of 5.97%.


Price:
$46.370
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-06-25 BUY Michael Bowman

This is one of those companies that every analyst recommends. They come out with fantastic earnings. They have increased drilling capacity every year for 3 or 4 years now. They are in the Bakken field, probably the superior field of oil in this country. Great management and fantastic balance sheet.


Price:
$46.370
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-06-24 BUY Mason Granger

Thinks the ability to grow by acquisition has come to an end for companies in this space.  This is a core holding for him and it is a large holding.


Price:
$46.090
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULL on OIL & GAS
Owned:
Yes
2014-06-23 BUY Norman Levine

In the last couple of years CPG-T really cut back on what they were buying.  He is keeping it and continuing to buy it for income accounts.   Dividend is safe because of the cash flow.  It had been an underperformer so he thinks it has a way to go still.


Price:
$47.180
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-06-09 PAST TOP PICK Eric Nuttall

(Top Pick Jun 20/13, Up 34.69%) A name to stick away.  Last year they took a break from M&A.  Thinks they will exceed expectations in Q2.  Management alluded to the fact that they would try to export oil out of Gulf of Mexico at US prices.  They are the most aggressive pursuer of this strategy.  The overall viability of their business model is getting better and better.  He owns a big whack of the stock personally.


Price:
$44.830
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULL on GAS
Owned:
Yes
2014-06-05 BUY Andrew Hamlin

Stock vs. Stock.  CPG-T vs. SU-T.  CPG has done a very good job and continues to pay out a good yield.


Price:
$44.500
Subject:
GROWTH & INCOME
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-06-05 TOP PICK Ryan Bushell

This is a consolidator, buying assets. Really likes the discipline of the management team. They keep their balance sheet crystal clean at 1X debt to cash flow. They issue equity when they do acquisitions. Some people don’t like that, but they keep their shareholders out of a debt problem. They also hedge a lot of their production, and keep cash safe to pay the 6% plus dividend yield. Good high net back production. Good management team.


Price:
$44.500
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-06-03 COMMENT Christine Poole

Yielding close to 6%, which she likes. A very steady cash flow generator. Has a very large land base inventory where they apply technology, and have close to 100% success rate. They are focusing more on organic production so she is hopeful that the share price can really start moving now.


Price:
$44.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-05-28 HOLD David Cockfield

Bought this stock simply for the dividend, and did a lot of homework to make sure the dividend was relatively secure. Has a huge cash flow, but looking at the payout and the DRIP program, you can come up with reasons that the dividend may not look secure. However, the company is committed to it. Through the years, the company has used it stock to acquire other companies so there has been continuous dilution. Recently have slowed down on their acquisitions, and even a little tougher on their DRIP programs which has probably helped the stock climb. Expects there will be continued appreciation.


Price:
$44.110
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-05-27 BUY Gavin Graham

Substantially higher than it was the year ago. One of the better run energy stocks because of the quality of the management.


Price:
$44.520
Subject:
GLOBAL & NORTH AMERICAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-05-26 COMMENT Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Trailing stop? There are several ways you could do this. You can look at the 20 day at around $42. The 50 day is $41 and the 200 day is around $39. What he looks at and uses on a fairly regular basis is a Volatility stop or in Average True Range stop, which is reasonably dynamic. Had a big upward swing $35 and $45. It is now starting to get towards the upper range of the band where you are probably going to get some sellers.


Price:
$44.570
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2014-05-21 PAST TOP PICK Robert Lauzon

(A Top Pick April 15/13. Up 35.41%.)


Price:
$44.390
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
BULLISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2014-05-20 TOP PICK Peter Brieger

One of his preferred ways to play the Canadian energy sector. This is a company that knows its business and increases its cash flow and dividends. Thinks they are on the way to annual production of 200,000-300,000 barrels a day which puts them fairly close to Imperial Oil (IMO-T), Husky Energy (HSE-T), etc. Yield of 6.29%.


Price:
$44.180
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-05-09 COMMENT David Baskin

A great growth story. A few years ago the stock was on fire and people made a lot of money. He thinks people became over enthusiastic about it and the stock got ahead of itself in terms of price to cash flow. Compared to some of the majors, you are paying more for $1 of cash flow than for others. People justify this on the basis that the yield is so great. He always felt it was pretty expensive and a lot of the glory days are behind it. Prefers the senior producers.


Price:
$43.350
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2014-05-09 SELL Don Vialoux

Seasonal strength is last week of Jan until this time of year.  It has reached its peak.  It is showing some early signs of resistance.  Now is the time to take some good money off the table.


Price:
$43.350
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-05-08 HOLD Michael Sprung

At current levels, he would not be jumping in right now. At $40 or under he would certainly be taking a close look. Pays a good dividend. Very good operators and very good acquirers.


Price:
$43.840
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-05-06 BUY Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

This is a good entry point. Great management. The more he watches the name, the more he respects what they are up to.


Price:
$44.390
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2014-05-05 SELL ON STRENGTH Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Stock vs. Stock: CPG or CNQ.  Doesn’t like saying one is better than the other because he doesn’t dig down deep on fundamentals.  CPG has been doing a lot better than CNQ over the last little while.  For a couple of months he has been saying you want to get out of energy stocks at the high end of the range so he would take money off the table.


Price:
$44.740
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-05-05 COMMENT Paul Gardner, CFA

Recently struck a deal with CanEra Energy as well as making a huge discovery in Saskatchewan. Light sweet oil, good management and good operations. However, it is really expensive, trading at 9X price to cash flow. Prefers Suncor (SU-T) which is heavy oil and which surprised on their last quarter numbers and the tailwind is in their favour.


Price:
$44.740
Subject:
FIXED INCOME, LARGE CAP DIVIDENDS AND REITS
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-05-01 BUY David Burrows

A large position of his.  Criticized for dividend policy previously.  They have years and years of drilling targets ahead of them.  It will continue to grow its dividend as wells go ahead.  6.2% yield.


Price:
$44.560
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-28 PAST TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(Top Pick Apr 22/13, Up 29.74%) You are getting a very good yield.  Long term he thinks it will join IMO and HSE as a major.  This implies a doubling in production. 


Price:
$44.030
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-28 TOP PICK Peter Brieger

Leaders in the field of technology of water recovery.  Is quite a positive leverage to oil flows.  Sees them being up there as a major leader in this area.  Dividend is safe, although it may not increase.


Price:
$44.030
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-24 PAST TOP PICK Mason Granger

(Top Pick May 21/13, Up 24.22% total return) Dividend is sustainable at 7%.  A rock solid balance sheet.  Have a program of acquiring light oil assets and building inventory.


Price:
$44.560
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULL on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-23 BUY on WEAKNESS Bruce Campbell (2)

Thought there would be some upside when he was on in October.  The numbers they are producing are better and he thinks they will produce higher and that the stock will also go a little higher.


Price:
$44.420
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BULL on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
Unknown
2014-04-17 PAST TOP PICK Eric Nuttall

(Top Pick Apr 17/13, Up 35.19%) A frustrating name but two weeks ago announced success with an asset.  Finally people are caring about the company.  Re-ratings are taking place in the market place and soon will be done by analysts.


Price:
$44.500
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULL on OIL & GAS
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-16 BUY Rick Stuchberry

An interesting oil company in that they are almost more of a manufacturer than a “search and find” company. Through horizontal drilling, they have basically got 3 great positions in old oilfields and it is all about capital deployment and operating efficiencies. Feels the dividend is safe. There is enough growth to keep it going. Yield of around 6%.


Price:
$43.950
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-11 BUY Martin Davies

Long term is 2-4 years.  The company is designed to do this long term thinking.  A good idea for a long term investor. 


Price:
$42.030
Subject:
CANADIAN OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on NATURAL GAS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-04-10 HOLD Philippe Capelle

Light oil producer, so correlated with the oil price.  Have been very acquisitive and tended to issue a lot of stock.  However, it is a good story and they are under good execution.  Thinks it will catch up so hang on to it.


Price:
$41.550
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (RESOURCE)
Bias:
BULLISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2014-04-09 BUY Stan Wong

Attractive.  It is breaking out after trading in a rage for a while.  It should go to $49 at this point.  At an important breakout.


Price:
$41.810
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2014-04-08 TOP PICK David Cockfield

As usual, it beat the forecasts in its last quarter. Had given people problems because they had a lot of takeovers, which they paid for with stocks giving ongoing dilution. Continues to pay an excellent dividend of 6.8%. Their water flood is working well. In the Bakken and North Dakota. Big in the rail. Thinks we are going to finally see some capital appreciation in the stock. It finally managed to get through $40. He can see it up to $46.


Price:
$40.990
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-07 PAST TOP PICK Zachary Curry

(Top Pick May 13/13, Up 13.70% total return) Continues to hold it.  Have not issued equity.  A big, growing company with exposure to the US.


Price:
$40.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-04 HOLD Genevieve Roch-Decter

Can rail up to half their production now and are moving to rail all of their production. Have taken the fate of the netbacks into their own hands so that they can have higher netbacks. At some point down the road, it will get bought by a super major.


Price:
$40.660
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
Bias:
BULL on ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-02 COMMENT David Burrows

(Market Call Minute.) Likes the sector. Stock is behaving pretty well. Reducing their reinvestment dividend plan has certainly been helpful. There may be better names, but you are going to win from the sector.


Price:
$40.440
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-31 BUY Michael Smedley

A very dominant company.  The only irritant is that they knock everyone else when they present to you.  He would continue to hold it.


Price:
$40.350
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-27 BUY Andy Nasr

Not a lot of capital appreciation.  They are digesting some large acquisition over the last couple of years, but going forward you could see increases in cash flow.  They could get more acquisitive in the next year or two.  You will get your yield and the payout is pretty well covered.


Price:
$39.820
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-26 DON'T BUY Brian Acker, CA

There are a group of these energy names that pay a distribution way above what they are earning. His model price is $31.42, a negative 21%. They pay a distribution of $2.76. Investors look at 6.78%, but mean estimates in terms of earnings, is $1 and next year it is $0.95. What it means is that they are paying out their capital to investors. Overvalued.


Price:
$40.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-24 BUY Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Good dividend payer and good solid company.  Prefers more diversification than just one stock in this sector.  See ZEO.


Price:
$40.250
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-24 PAST TOP PICK Peter Brieger

(Top Pick Mar 18/13, Up 10.21%) Still doesn’t know if Keystone will get approved.  It is fading in relative significance.


Price:
$40.250
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-21 BUY Norman Levine

He recently added to his position. Doesn’t know where the price of oil is going. He believes it is going to stay high which will be highly profitable for all producers. He is happy to continue owning a company that adds to its reserves and to its production very profitably. Dividend is safe.


Price:
$40.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-20 HOLD Greg Newman

A range bound stock and a lot of people talk about it extolling its virtues. Great balance sheet, high net backs, exposure to a top ranked plays. Why can’t it get out of its own way? Shareholders are still getting used to the fact that this used to be a monster grower. Looking at how much its production grew over the last 4 years, it was up about 28%. For the next 2 years, he sees production growth only being about 6%-7%. While not so bad, when you net out the DRIP, cash flow per share growth is only about 3%. Payout ratio is average at about 130%. Just boosted their outlook on their latest quarter, but did that by assuming a lower Cdn$ and higher oil prices, so it wasn’t organically driven. Try to get it at around $38-$39.


Price:
$40.430
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-17 BUY on WEAKNESS Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

For the next 5 years, gas and oil prices are range-bound at best.  Forward looking markets are not optimistic.  He is looking to take money off the table.  Buy on pullbacks at the lower end of the trading range.


Price:
$40.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-17 PAST TOP PICK John Zechner

(Top Pick Feb 1/13, Up 11.95%) Should have done better but they flooded the market with new equity.  They are building great asset value for the long term.


Price:
$40.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-12 COMMENT Lyle Stein

This is a good name. Feels the Street has missed when they bought some assets in the US. Did particularly well in Saskatchewan where their water flooding did quite well.


Price:
$40.000
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-11 PAST TOP PICK Eric Nuttall

(A Top Pick April 17/13. Up 19.07%.) Still likes this. It is a frustrating name because it feels like the name is kind of stuck. Very well owned in Canada and they really need to rely on the incremental buyer from the US coming into the name. Have a very sustainable dividend becoming more sustainable in time as their capital efficiencies improve and their decline rates fall with the implementation of water flood. Just listed in New York.


Price:
$38.720
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-10 TOP PICK Michael Decter

CEO is one of Canada’s more remarkable and not well known entrepreneurs in the oil patch. A very conservative company. Street developed a lack of affection because they kept raising equity. Acquired an extraordinarily valuable and oil production area in Utah. Built its own transportation facilities so it can move 100% of its oil by rail and is not dependent on pipelines. 7% dividend yield.


Price:
$39.000
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-05 BUY Christine Poole

Gets up to $40 and then trades down a bit.  Not sure why.  Maybe we need a more sustained movement in Crude.  She owns it because it has low exploration risk due to high inventory.  It is an exploitation strategy.  Yield is very safe although she sees little increase in it.  She expects 10% return per year.


Price:
$38.720
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-05 HOLD Michael Bowman

There doesn’t seem to be a lot of growth.  It never shows up when he does a screening because there is always some problem with it.  Others have not performed all that well either.  CPG has fantastic properties, great yield.  You have nothing to worry about.  If you buy an oil stock make sure it pays a dividend, so this one is okay.  He also has White Cap.


Price:
$38.720
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-04 DON'T BUY Bill Harris, CFA

(Market Call Minute) Nothing wrong with it.  Only concern is that it is a light oil producer and there is a ton of light oil coming on in the next twelve months in the US.


Price:
$38.920
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
No
2014-02-28 HOLD Jaime Carrasco

He has taken money off the table along the way.  You get a pretty good yield.  It has become a pretty mature company so any new barrels coming on board won’t have such a big impact on cash flows.  If you want growth look more at junior companies like Whitecap.


Price:
$38.860
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-27 HOLD David Burrows

He has trimmed his position by a half recently.  They changed what they were doing in their DRIP, which he thought was dilutive.  The energy sector is not one of the leading ones.  This pays a nice yield of 7%.  A good company but other sectors are more attractive.


Price:
$38.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-24 WATCH Peter Brieger

One of his key long term holdings.  It disappointed last year, but you got your yield.  Likes the growth in production from new fields and companies purchased, as well as the recovery rates.  Will be a preeminent producer in Canada.  Their production rates should be going up at least 5% per year.  The breakout point could be sooner rather than later.


Price:
$39.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-02-21 BUY on WEAKNESS David Cockfield

There has been big selling in some of his favourite oil stocks.  Buy this one under $40, which he has.  Increasing production and cash flow on a regular basis.


Price:
$38.870
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-20 BUY Mason Granger

Lot of hallmarks of a company you want to own for the dividend.  Light oil weighted inventory.  Well run company with diversified asset base.  Typically they fund dividend with DRIP.  He thinks the need for this will decline in the next two years.  Don’t expect more than high single digits of production growth.


Price:
$38.820
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-19 PAST TOP PICK Mohsin Bashir

(A Top Pick June 20/13. Up 14.1%.) Liked that it was a former trust paying a high amount of dividend income. Also, its focus on light oil was an area of interest. Believes the dividend is sustainable, growth prospects are strong and their assets are strong sources of growth for their target of 150,000 barrels per day.


Price:
$38.680
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-19 COMMENT James Telfser

Not a bad name, but something he has never felt compelled to add to his holdings. Stock really hasn’t done much. They issue shares and they pay a nice dividend but it just kind of muddles around. Prefers growthier names or names that generate a lot of cash flow and can cover the dividend nicely.


Price:
$38.680
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-13 BUY John Stephenson

(Market Call Minute.) Has been in the doghouse for some time. A lot of US investors have fled this name but if you look at cash flow per share, it is very strong.


Price:
$38.770
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-11 BUY John Wilson

Doing a great job of driving the type of production to support the payout.  It is a way to add pretty decent yield into your portfolio.  He owns a different one, see Top Picks.


Price:
$38.160
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
No
2014-02-10 PAST TOP PICK John Zechner

(A Top Pick Feb 1/13. Up 5.56%.) Cdn oil stocks have been a disappointment. They are starting to catch up a little bit. This company has a great land position and a good dividend yield. Had a 20% dilution last year and yet they added more than 50% to their land holdings. Have a lot of great growth ahead of them. The Cdn$ falling is going to be a huge benefit for them.


Price:
$38.160
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-07 COMMENT Michele Robitaille

Good, high quality company. Has been a little bit range bound over the last year or so. Company had made a number of acquisitions back in 2012 and had issued a fairly substantial amount of equity so there was a bit of market fatigue over the company’s path. 2013 was a bit of a breather year for them. Underlying operating results are quite good. Good high-quality properties. Continues to like this company.


Price:
$37.890
Subject:
HIGH YIELD EQUITIES & REITS
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-07 STRONG BUY Michael Bowman

Why is the P/E ratio so high and the Operating Margin is so low? Ignore PE and looking at Price to Cash Flow instead. Everybody loves this one. It has the big yield. Has a fantastic balance sheet and great management. They are doing everything right. We all need some oil in our portfolio and this is the one to have. 7.28% yield.


Price:
$37.890
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-02-06 DON'T BUY Teal Linde

A phenomenal success story.  A popular stock.  He has been on the sidelines for 3 years.  They get a lot of criticism for issuing a lot of stock.  That is a bit of an unfair criticism because their strategy is to issue a high dividend and then use the stock as a currency.  He doesn’t have a problem with that.  But he is concerned about decline rates in the first year.  They will lose 30% of production this year and have to replace it plus the amount they want to grow this year.


Price:
$38.250
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-02-05 BUY Norman Levine

Has a good dividend, which he believes is safe, especially where oil prices are now. This has fallen with the general market. It’s got more promise than delivery in the last few years. People criticized management for making too many acquisitions and issuing too much stock when they did that. They haven’t done that for a while now. This is a good one to own for the income and hopefully there will be some capital gain at some point.


Price:
$37.660
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-04 BUY Christine Poole

Likes this because of its 7%+ dividend. The dividend was not cut, even through the financial crisis. Not expecting the dividend to grow much but thinks the company will maintain it. Expects production to grow 8%-10% over the next few years.


Price:
$37.890
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
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1 Comment

mylund

December 19th 2013 at 12:44pm

Who would be railing their crude in North America?


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