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Suncor Energy Inc Stock Symbol: SU-T

Notes:Oil Sands. Oil weighted

Last Price Recorded: $40.5200 on 2014-11-22

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2014-11-21 BUY Michael Sprung

He is a big believer in this one. A good way to play the oil patch from an integrated perspective. You have everything from conventional oil sands to upstream and downstream. Extremely well-managed. On the multiple pieces, it looks pretty reasonable at these levels. If you look out over the next year or 2, it is selling at around 6X cash flow and 10-12 times earnings, which is quite reasonable. Because it is in the energy sector, there might be some volatility in the short term.


Price:
$40.520
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-11-19 BUY John O'Connell, CFA

If you want to own a large cap name in Canada, the energy sector is representing good value here. He has quite a bit of energy exposure, although he doesn’t own this one. If you want to own a large cap major, this would be the one. Likes what management is doing. They are paying attention and focusing on cost of capital. They’re not just pursuing growth for the sake of growth. They are buying back their stock when they think that they can't make investments in industries. Global supply is about 93 million barrels a day and global demand is about 93 million barrels a day. They are both growing at about 1.5%. There has been a downtick in growth recently. The large cap oil sands producers have been pursuing these large-scale mining operations and this company has done an excellent job of doing it. Reasonably expensive barrels of oil, and they run for long, long periods of time.


Price:
$38.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2014-11-18 BUY Michael Bowman

If he is looking to play the oil game and something that doesn't have a lot of risk to it, he is going to pick a company like this. He likes the downstream, the refining and the whole thing. Also, this is an oil sands company, so they don't have to go out to find the oil. A very conservative play, but if you want to get your feet wet in the oil business at present oil prices, this would be the one to buy. Thinks this has some support at around $38.


Price:
$39.170
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-11-17 BUY on WEAKNESS Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Stock vs. Stock.  SU-T vs. TOU-T.  Gas will have more volatility than oil.  SU-T he owns and it is the better choice.  Out a year or two it won’t have much growth.  Will trade down to the mid-$30s next year and up as high as last summer’s high.  Partially sell if it gets to the mid $40s.


Price:
$39.190
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & ETF's
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-11-17 SELL John Wilson

Prefers Whitecap Resources (WCP-T), which is hedged at around $98, and half of 2015 production is hedged well into the high $90. You have exposure on this if the oil price keeps dropping. Great balance sheet, cash flow and long reserve life, but it wouldn't be his 1st choice.


Price:
$39.190
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US ECONOMY
Owned:
No
2014-11-14 WAIT Jaime Carrasco

Good for a 3-5 year hold? Hasn't owned this for a long time. Finds the dividend is lower than what he likes to see. In this environment, this might be a good one because it is a solid, big company. He would wait for some price stability.


Price:
$39.570
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-11-12 BUY Paul Gardner, CFA

He thinks there is an overreaction of the market selling this down.  Thinks they will continue to be gushing cash flow.  4 times cash flow and sometimes it has been as high as 6 in the past.  Their retail margins are holding up. 


Price:
$39.850
Subject:
FIXED INCOME, LARGE CAP DIVIDENDS AND REITS
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-11-06 COMMENT Mason Granger

(A large cap stock and the only large caps he would own in his portfolio are Crescent Point (CPG-T) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T).) He can see the investment merits for this company. It is an integrated model, so you are getting the downstream in addition to the upstream. A very large free cash flow generator. Expects the free cash flow next year is probably in the order of $2-$3 billion. The company can either pursue share repurchases or increase the dividend. Expects an increase in the dividend will be 10%-15% next year. Valuation is quite reasonable.


Price:
$38.500
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2014-11-03 BUY Norman Levine

It is defensive and has not been hit as hard as others.  Downstream operation should continue to be profitable for them.  When oil prices go down the price of products are slow to respond and this increases profits.  It is a good value here.


Price:
$38.570
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-30 BUY Michael Bowman

Likes it.  He would buy it here because oil is coming down to the $80 dollar mark and the question is where it is going from here.  He prefers this kind of company because he is comfortable holding companies that are completely integrated.  It is all about operating net backs. 


Price:
$39.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULL
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-28 COMMENT Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

The problem that most Canadians have had is that 20%-30% of the TSX composite is made up of energy and commodities. You shouldn’t have to pay that much as far as multiples expanding and going up and down. Very cyclical. Nobody seems to know when to sell these. Doesn't feel it is a buy-and-hold.


Price:
$39.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-28 COMMENT Brooke Thackray

Suncor (SU-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T)? Two totally different stocks. We might still see oil production pushing down here a little bit, but that will take a little while for it to roll through. He looks at this from a seasonal perspective. If the oil sector really starts to ramp up here, you are going to get more bang for your buck out of Crescent Point. Because the energy sector is out of its seasonal period, he would be going with a more defensive oil play, which is Suncor.


Price:
$39.000
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-27 WAIT Peter Brieger

When you see the West to East pipeline, which he hopes comes to pass, you are going to see an awful lot of increase in refining activity in Québec and points east, and this company will benefit from that. Wait to see more progress on the pipeline.


Price:
$38.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2014-10-23 BUY Bill Harris, CFA

He waited 3 years after the Petro Canada acquisition to see if they could digest it.  This now a fantastic investment in the energy space.  Thinks it is a stock he can own for a long time.  It is throwing off free cash flow for the first time.


Price:
$38.980
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
BULL on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-20 WATCH Chris Hensen

There is no way to know where the oil price will go in a couple of years.  It is hard to invest in this area.  It is a high cost producer with the majority of assets tied up in the tar sands so when oil sells off it gets hit more.  But he likes their integrated structure with the upstream and downstream.  He just doesn’t see a lot of upside here.  He would like to see it a lot lower before adding to it.


Price:
$38.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
SELECTIVELY BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-16 BUY Stan Wong

Baytex Energy (BTE-T) or Suncor (SU-T)? Certainly 2 very different names. Baytex gives you an 8% yield while you don’t get that with this. For yield hunters, Baytex is one that he would look at. He actually likes and owns both names, and they are both fine. You are probably getting a little bit more leverage in terms of the movement in oil price relative to the stock price with Baytex, where this one might be a little bit steadier being in the oil Sands space.


Price:
$37.140
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-15 COMMENT Barry Schwartz

Growing its production, and has wonderful reserves. Even at $80 oil, he feels they are still profitable.


Price:
$36.310
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-14 PAST TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

(A Top Pick Oct 15/13. Down 1.44%.) In all probability this could go down to the $30 level. If so, he will be there buying it.


Price:
$36.100
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-10 COMMENT David Cockfield

Sell some Toronto Dominion (TD-T) and get into this? He likes TD, one of his favourite banks, and he has lots of it. He doesn’t know that he would like to sell his bank and would probably Hold them both.


Price:
$36.660
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-10 BUY David Cockfield

This has tended to be a favourite in the US which is probably one of the reasons why it has been pounded so badly. It has a lot of heavy oil and that is where price stability is these days. Thinks it is in a Buy range here.


Price:
$36.660
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-09 DON'T BUY David Burrows

We broke a 12 year trend in commodities.  Oil has followed.  He prefers companies that benefit from falling oil prices.


Price:
$37.510
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US MARKET
Owned:
Unknown
2014-10-08 TOP PICK Michael Sprung

Canada’s largest integrated oil/gas company. With energy being hit the way it has, this is a really good opportunity to step in. We are going to see some cash flow estimates come down, but nonetheless, this company should be earning around $5 or $5 plus cash flow over the next couple of years. A very inexpensive stock. You are getting the benefit of both the upstream and the downstream operations. Dividend yield of 2.99%.


Price:
$38.240
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-07 HOLD Rob Stabile

Solid management and a very good allocator of capital. Expects there will be dividend increases over time. The beauty with oil sands projects and oil sands operators is that once they spend capital to get a project going, there is very little decline and very little maintenance capital to be spent. You will see this company building more projects and expanding, but there will be a significant amount of cash flow being returned to shareholders in the form of dividends.


Price:
$38.530
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-07 COMMENT Christine Poole

This is on her Watch List. All of the oil producers have come back quite a bit. This is probably the best name for oil sands exposure. This becomes a call on crude, which she thinks is near the floor.


Price:
$38.530
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-10-06 COMMENT Zachary Curry

They are shedding assets that they deem to be non-core, which has done them well over the past year plus. Focused on the oil sands and long-term assets. Have done dispositions to help their balance sheet and rewarding shareholders. He can definitely see a time when he would be an owner of this.


Price:
$39.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2014-09-29 WEAK BUY Norman Levine

He sold his COS-T to decrease his exposure to oil.  This is his remaining exposure to oil sands.  As much as environmentalists are trying to shut down additional pipelines, he feels oil will go out via other means.  Don’t hold a huge position.


Price:
$40.230
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-26 BUY Michael Bowman

With oil by rail, maybe Keystone does not matter.  They are a refiner with upstream and downstream operations.  This is a very conservative company.  They had very good dividend increases.  Worth buying here.


Price:
$40.690
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL SERVICES COMPANIES
Owned:
Unknown
2014-09-25 BUY Michele Robitaille

Likes that they have a very integrated strategy.  They can access non-North American pricing for 90% of their product.  Growth in cash flow over the next number of years is tremendous.  The one knock is Fort Hills, but it is still a high quality project that will work for them over the long term.


Price:
$40.290
Subject:
HIGH YIELD EQUITIES & REITS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-19 BUY Greg Newman

Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) for the growth? These are both excellent choices. Thinks CNQ is slightly better. This one throws off huge free cash flow growth and you are going to have nice dividend growth as a result. A quality name and a good balance sheet. (See Top Picks.)


Price:
$41.990
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-09-17 PAST TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

(A Top Pick Oct 15/13. Up 18.72%.) His model price is $79, an upside of 81%. He is willing to be patient and wait for the value to be created.


Price:
$43.040
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US$
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-16 COMMENT John O'Connell, CFA

Switch to another oil such as Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? These are 2 really good companies. Both are very well run and if you wanted to own 2 large cap names, these would be the 2 you want to own. Doesn’t think the trade would be worth it because of the possible tax implications and transaction costs.


Price:
$43.470
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-09-15 HOLD John Zechner

It is more of a gas play.  You are playing the winter weather story.  He would not necessarily be selling although he reduced his position recently.  It is stable and generates a lot of cash flows.  He would not throw more money at it, however.


Price:
$43.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-05 BUY Norman Levine

Likes it.  Even though he thinks oil prices are vulnerable, SU-T looks attractive in the long term.  You can expect very good dividend growth going forward.


Price:
$44.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on GLOBAL STOCKS
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-03 COMMENT Philippe Capelle

Looking for increasing free cash flow generation with their good production growth. Also, thinks the dividend will increase over time. This is a great story to own. An integrated, so they have upstream production as well as the downstream integrated. In the event of volatile oil prices, they make money on the downstream.


Price:
$44.110
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (RESOURCE)
Bias:
BULLISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2014-09-03 BUY Jim Huang

This has been his favourite for a long time. A premier oil sand company in Canada. Well respected management which focuses on returning cash to shareholders either through dividends or buybacks. That will continue. Expect they will continue to raise their dividends. Over the long term they will create value.


Price:
$44.110
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-08-27 WAIT Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Has sold all of his energy holdings. Energy has 2 seasons. The 1st run ends in May followed by a 2nd run starting in late July. His holdings ran right through the weak period and he started to reduce in early July. He is now currently looking as to when to get back into the energy sector. Thinks there will be an opportunity between now and late September.


Price:
$44.190
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2014-08-26 PAST TOP PICK Michael Sprung

(A Top Pick Sept 4/13. Up 25.39%.) Lately stocks have held up quite a bit better than the commodity price of oil. Selling for a reasonable multiple at 1.5X BV. Trading at about 11X next year’s earnings. 2.5% dividend yield. A well diversified play on the energy industry.


Price:
$44.160
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-08-25 BUY Eric Nuttall

Refiners are making a huge margin.  SU-T are growing their oil sands production. 


Price:
$44.300
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-22 DON'T BUY Don Vialoux

They broke a support level and established a downward trend. They have underperformed the market and are below the 20 day moving average.  Three technicals against you.  Fundamentals suggest a bit of caution here.


Price:
$43.960
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-18 HOLD John Stephenson

This is a benchmark name.  Over time he noticed that energy is pretty strong in Canada and appeals to Canadian and international investors.  He thinks it should be a core holding.  Ultimately has good leverage to oil prices.  But if oil is below $90 it will not do well.


Price:
$42.680
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-15 PAST TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

(A Top Pick Aug 7/13. Up 27.99%.) This had a negative transit in one of his EBV lines, so he would be cautious on ih. Hopefully the EBV +2 level holds. It could fall back to EBV +1 at $36.50. Energy, certainly in the last 6 weeks, has been a tough sector to be in. He shows this could have an 87% upside. Yielding 2.67%.


Price:
$42.950
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2014-08-15 WEAK BUY David Cockfield

This is a bit boring at the present time. The oil sands has become a major part of their production. Have a good following in the US. Not much exciting about the stock at the present time. Very solid, and on a long-term basis it is a fine investment. Don’t expect too much performance out of it in the intermediate term. Q2 was slightly below expectations were the others surprised with better growth.


Price:
$42.950
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-14 BUY Paul Harris, CFA

Really likes the stock. Have made some very good decisions on exiting areas where they don’t get the rates of return that they want. They have the more important aspects of their business and they really do think about this when they are buying or exiting assets. This is a great story at these levels. Expects there is more upside and it is not expensive. Decent dividend. This is something that you can own for many, many years.


Price:
$41.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-13 COMMENT Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

These big material and energy names you need to be very careful of. You watch the cycle and trade in and out of them. At this point, he feels this company still has good tailwinds behind it right now.


Price:
$42.180
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-12 DON'T BUY Bill Carrigan

Chart shows a breakout earlier this year and it ran up. However, with crude running into difficulty, this could be a problem. The lower fruit has been picked and he would back away from this group.


Price:
$42.530
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
BULLISH on MATERIALS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-08-05 COMMENT Barry Schwartz

He sees growing cash flow. Likes what the new management is doing of returning capital to shareholders and following the Exxon plan. Could be a much higher stock than it is today.


Price:
$43.190
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-08-01 BUY Norman Levine

Likes this long term. Good production profile. Also, likes its refining and marketing. Raised its dividend and will probably do it again next quarter. There is lots of room for the dividend to go up. Had some production difficulties last quarter, in both upstream and refining sides. More importantly the price of oil has gone down to about $97, which hurt energy stocks in general. Unlike a lot of its competitors, 100% of its production is sold at full WTI price.


Price:
$43.430
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-29 BUY Ross Healy

Likes this a lot. There is a lot of upside potential. His Fair Market Value is quite high. Has been recommending the stock for some time. Probably has another 30%-40% to go before he would consider it to be expensive.


Price:
$45.120
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-24 BUY David Burrows

Behaving extremely well. The thesis is that the bottleneck in transportation from Canada to US is starting to break up a little bit.  A great balanced portfolio to own.  A great core holding to own.  You will see $50 again in your lifetime.


Price:
$45.440
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-21 HOLD Ron Meisels

Probably needs a minor correction after a huge run.  It is well above its 40 week moving average.  It could correct or just stop moving. 


Price:
$44.590
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - N.A. EQUITIES
Bias:
BULL
Owned:
Unknown
2014-07-18 HOLD Mohsin Bashir

Has exceptionally good assets, great management team and increased dividends. You also have the advantage of refining capacity. It’s not just a matter of being able to extract heavy oil out of the ground, but you have to go through the processes of refining it. This company probably has some of the best operations in the country.


Price:
$44.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-16 COMMENT Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

2nd quarter numbers were not quite as strong as they could be. She bought more of this last week. Feels that there is a big free cash flow wall coming. Likes it at this price.


Price:
$44.720
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on CDN ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2014-07-03 COMMENT Barry Schwartz

This is a much better company coming out of the recession. Likes what management is doing. They follow the Exxon model of returning capital to shareholders. Going to generate stable, stable returns going forward, as long as oil prices stay high.


Price:
$45.530
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-06-25 HOLD Martin Davies

Into a free cash flow distribution phase which will give them the luxury of having long reserve life mines and SAGD projects, producing a fair amount of free cash flow. The share buy back, and the dividends in the long term are what are going to help shareholders on their rate of returns.


Price:
$44.700
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-06-24 DON'T BUY Mason Granger

He is not a big investor in oil sands.  There are long lead times on projects.  Prefers CNQ-T.


Price:
$44.580
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULL on OIL & GAS
Owned:
No
2014-06-12 BUY David Burrows

In the last 4 months, he has built a pretty significant weight in the heavy oil companies in Western Canada. The bottleneck in getting the bitumen and oil to market is starting to de-bottleneck a little. We produce about 4 million barrels a day, and by the end of this year will be moving about 800,000 barrels a day to the Gulf of Mexico. So the differential between Western Canadian heavy oil and WTI is narrowing, which is good for companies like this.


Price:
$45.440
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2014-06-11 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (1)

Stock has moved up, and they are doing a lot of the right things, but if you ever get a bottleneck problem on heavy oil, you could be into a bit of trouble. Prefers Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) which has more international exposure.


Price:
$44.200
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-06-09 DON'T BUY Eric Nuttall

Have done a good job of tightening focus over the last couple of years.  Often uses this stock instead of being in cash.  He does not feel like he needs to own Suncor at these prices, however.


Price:
$43.390
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULL on GAS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-06-05 BUY Andrew Hamlin

Stock vs. Stock.  CPG-T vs. SU-T.   Likes the diversified asset base.  Warrant buffet has taken a significant stake in SU-T.  We should see more growth coming out of SU than CPG.


Price:
$42.850
Subject:
GROWTH & INCOME
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-05-29 TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

His model price is $81.93, a 95% upside.


Price:
$41.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULL on US EQUITIES
Owned:
Yes
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