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Suncor Energy Inc Stock Symbol: SU-T

Notes:Oil Sands. Oil weighted

Last Price Recorded: $36.8100 on 2015-08-30

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2015-08-28 COMMENT Don Lato

Probably the best performing oil/gas stock in the last 12 months. Have done a very good job of managing their way through this. Their prices are coming down just like everybody else’s, but they cut their costs back and prudently planned their expansions.


Price:
$36.810
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-21 PARTIAL BUY Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

The best of a bad group. The leaders will be the ones to turn. Chart shows a few spots where you can hang your hat on at around $34. This would be a pretty decent level, but you also have to be prepared to pay something that is closer to $30. Chart also shows some overhead resistance, but once it gets above the descending triangle, that would be an indication you could add to this. Consider dividing your position into 3 and putting in an initial position to get close to the Stop level, followed by adding another one. But be prepared to exit there. Add your 3rd position when it breaks the upper band of the symmetrical triangle.


Price:
$34.280
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2015-08-20 BUY Paul Harris, CFA

Has no idea where oil is going to go, so one of the issues is that if oil stays at these levels, a lot of companies are going to have to cut their dividends or disappear. This company has a strong balance sheet. If they have to come to the market, it is going to be a lot easier for them than it would be for a smaller company. Have already gone through some restructuring with their acquisition of Petro Canada, so they were in a better shape when oil prices fell. If you want to be in a great oil company, this is the one that he likes.


Price:
$34.220
Subject:
GLOBAL
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-08-17 BUY Ryan Bushell

Now is probably a better entry point than a year ago.  They increased their dividend recently so the dividend looks sustainable.  He has CVE-T.  He does not think you will go too bad going with any of these companies at this point.


Price:
$36.600
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
No
2015-07-31 COMMENT Lyle Stein

This company showed what a good oil company can do. They raised their dividend because they do have refining capacity. A well positioned company. Large cap companies with good balance sheets can survive very turbulent economic waters.


Price:
$36.840
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-07-29 TOP PICK Michael Sprung

Canada’s largest integrated oil/gas company. Have significant operations in the oil sands, which is holding them back for the time being, but they make a great deal of their operating profit from downstream operations. Right now refining and margins downstream are doing quite well. Excellent balance sheet with the wherewithal to take advantage of weaker competitors. Likes this as a long-term hold. Dividend yield of 3.35%.


Price:
$34.620
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-29 WAIT James Telfser

Has always liked this and it is on his list of names to play in the event of a recovery in the next few years. Still sees some downside to it, but they have the downstream assets to offset a lot of the losses that they are seeing in the oil sands. It has all of the things you need in a name if you are investing in a depressed asset. Wait for a better entry point.


Price:
$34.620
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-28 TOP PICK Bill Harris, CFA

If oil goes down and the Cdn$ drops, it is not horrible but you have to have low cost structure. They have discipline on the financial side and have been able to get their costs down by 30% and can actually make money. Yield of 3.39%.


Price:
$33.180
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
BEARISH on RESOURCES
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-27 BUY on WEAKNESS Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

2/3rds of revenue comes from gas sales and refining.  These profits have never been better.  Drilling and oil sands are what is not doing well.  You want to be buying at about $28-31.  We are near the bottom of the range.


Price:
$32.720
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-24 WEAK BUY Jeff Young

A high-quality oil sands producer. Good strong balance sheet that is able to withstand a weak environment. Because it is a big liquid oil stock, it is going to get battered around with oil prices. If you have a very long-term time horizon, it will definitely be a survivor. You could add to it  or stick your toe in a little, but wouldn’t back up the truck.


Price:
$33.080
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2015-07-16 COMMENT Michael Decter

Thinks that 6 months from now oil prices will be higher than they are now, but in the interim, they may be lower. The Saudis are pumping to beat the band. With the deal in Iran there is a possibility of more oil coming into the world market. On the other hand, drilling has fallen off and production is starting to drop in North America and inventory levels have been dropping. He would prefer Crescent Point (CPG-T) or PrairieSky Royalty (PSK-T), although this is a very good solid company.


Price:
$35.240
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-07-10 COMMENT John Stephenson

From a Canadian content, this is excellent. If he had to put money into one or 2 energy companies, this would definitely be one.


Price:
$34.950
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-07-03 COMMENT Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Owned this for a period of time and did well on it about 18 months to 6 months ago, and then got stopped out. Finds this energy space really frustrating.


Price:
$34.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-06-29 COMMENT Richard Croft

Has been writing Covered Calls against most of the oil companies he owns. Likes this as a strategy because if oil companies are doing well, very often the economy is not doing so well. Oil companies tend to be in the top quartile, or certainly in the top half, i.e. higher volatility stocks. He is writing covered calls into December of this year.


Price:
$33.790
Subject:
OPTION STRATEGIES & E.T.F.S
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-18 DON'T BUY Greg Newman

Even though oil has fallen a lot, people think this is cheap now, but it is actually trading 8.3X EV to discounted adjusted cash flow. The five-year average is 6.7. This is a great company. They cut their costs a lot. Their oil sands operational expense was $20.40 last quarter, which was much better than he thought. Refining numbers look good. There is steady progress with their mega projects. Most importantly, their debt levels are really, really good. However, cash flows have fallen dramatically. He sees them coming up 2016 over 2015 with $60 oil. He doesn’t think this is game on, unless you have higher oil prices. There are better places elsewhere over the next 12 months.


Price:
$34.000
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-17 WAIT James Telfser

A solid business that generates a lot of free cash flow, with a very defensive business downstream. If you are going to own a very large oil sands company that has very defensive characteristics, this might be the one to hold. Wait for fundamentals to improve. He has practically a zero percent weighting in energy.


Price:
$34.460
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-06-16 BUY on WEAKNESS Brian Acker, CA

Suspects this is going to go down to the $29.51 level. All the oils are going back to where they bottomed in December 2014. This has a model price of $35.50, a 3% upside from its current price. He would be a buyer at $29.51.


Price:
$34.490
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US$
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-15 BUY on WEAKNESS Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

He likes energy stocks for a 10 year investment.  As energy is pulling back he is adding stocks.  For 10 years SU-T has made no one any money, but has paid a reliable dividend.  You want to buy in weakness and sell in strength.  Don’t get out of it right now.


Price:
$34.240
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-06-15 DON'T BUY Barry Schwartz

You have to own this if you believe in your heart that oil is going to go up, their production is going to go, they are going to control the costs, that the oil sands are not going to be targeted by environmentalists, issues and offsets going forward. Valuations don’t make any sense at $60 oil.


Price:
$34.240
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-06-12 COMMENT Swanzy Quarshie

She likes this a lot. One of Canada’s strongest businesses. She has stayed away in the last little while because they are overspending because of the Fort Hills project. They will be overspending for some time, so she sees better opportunities elsewhere.


Price:
$34.800
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2015-06-10 COMMENT Dennis Da Silva

Probably one of the 2 names on the senior side that he would tend to own in his dividend portfolios. He prefers this and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) for growth as well as for costs and efficiency of capital. Outside of the dividend, this is not one that you buy for growth. One of the better run companies out there.


Price:
$36.230
Subject:
CANADIAN RESOURCE
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Yes
2015-06-05 HOLD Kash Pashootan

This is trading at a price similar to when oil was trading at $90 a barrel. It is going to be difficult to see how upside can exist with oil prices being between $55 and $65 for the foreseeable future. It is still premature. Wait for the dust to settle.


Price:
$36.010
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDENDS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-06-03 TOP PICK Gavin Graham

Biggest integrated energy company in Canada and the 5th biggest in North America. If one is concerned about the environmental impact of the oil sands, this company has always been the good citizen. The stock price has gone nowhere in the past 5 years, but they have been growing their production very substantially, up to over 400,000 barrels a day, and have more fields coming on which will add an additional 80,000 by the end of 2017. Well positioned to wait out a prolonged period of lower oil prices. Dividend yield of 3.07%.


Price:
$36.300
Subject:
GLOBAL
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-05-22 COMMENT David Cockfield

NDP is now the governing party in Alberta, and have never been particularly corporately friendly. However, he thinks there is enough information for the new government to not to make any huge stupid moves. They have already indicated they are not going to do anything for probably 6 months. Thinks all oil company problems are more related to the price of oil, and has become pretty convinced we are not going to see the price of oil much out of the $60 for the foreseeable future. On that basis, profit margins are squeezed, particularly the oil sands. If you want to add to this, he would do it slowly over the next several years, until we really see how this whole pricing mechanism shakes out.


Price:
$37.110
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-05-19 PAST TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

(A Top Pick May 29/14. Down 10.95%.) His model price is $35. If you look at any of the companies in the oil patch, his model price and earnings are significantly below the current price.


Price:
$36.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US$
Owned:
Yes
2015-05-14 HOLD Allan Meyer

As long as you get higher oil prices you will get growth.  He pared back his oil and gas exposure over the last months.  He can’t justify a full market exposure for his conservative clients.  He prefers pipelines and so on.


Price:
$36.300
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2015-05-06 BUY John Stephenson

(How will the new Alberta government affect this stock?) The reality is that we just don’t know enough. It depends on what type of government we get. Overall this is a fantastic company. Capital discipline is phenomenal. Arguably one of the best integrated oil/gas names globally.


Price:
$37.030
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-30 BUY Rick Stuchberry

It is turning a bit.  The difficulty with the big integrateds is just the price of crude.  You could enter at this point if you think oil is going up.  He is half weighted in energy at this point and thinks they are all turning and coming back.


Price:
$39.290
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & ADRs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-28 COMMENT Michael Sprung

He likes this company. With the industry currently undergoing the problems that it has, you really want to be in the companies that are going to survive, and this is one of the more diversified companies in the oil sector. An extremely well-managed company. In the next couple of years, he is expecting that we will see cash flow in the $5 range, maybe even $6. It will be subject to some shocks going forward.


Price:
$39.710
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2015-04-27 WATCH Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

2/3rds of revenue is from refining and marketing through Petrocan gas stations.  He expects them to surprise to the upside.  Technically there is a lot of overhead resistance in the $42 area.  If oil prices revisit their lows then this one will fall to $35 and he really likes owning it there and then sell close to $42.


Price:
$39.850
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
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