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Suncor Energy Inc Stock Symbol: SU-T

Notes:Oil Sands. Oil weighted

Last Price Recorded: 40.4700 on 2014-04-19 01:14:15

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2014-04-15 HOLD Keith Richards

Has had a lot of volatility over the last few years. The lid of around $35 which was containing this stock was broken in mid-2013. That was pretty good news. This was followed by another level of consolidation and it seems to be breaking that right now. The bigger picture so far is healthy. As long as it keeps keeping the bridges as it moves out, he would continue to hold it.


Price:
$39.370
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-04-14 BUY on WEAKNESS Josef Schachter

94% oil / 6% Nat Gas.  If you can get it in the low $30s buy, but don’t chase it.  There is no urgency to buy it now.


Price:
$39.500
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-04-11 PAST TOP PICK Martin Davies

(Top Pick Apr 30/13, Up 27.96%) Seeing a very large change in the economics of Natural Gas.  He has deployed some profits to the Nat Gas side to diversify.


Price:
$39.470
Subject:
CANADIAN OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on NATURAL GAS
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-09 BUY Stan Wong

Energy names in Canada are starting to break out a bit.  Hold onto this particular stock.  Thinks it will start to perform.


Price:
$39.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
No
2014-04-04 BUY Genevieve Roch-Decter

Has done a good job of generating tons of free cash flow and are on a trajectory of increasing their dividend.


Price:
$39.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
Bias:
BULL on ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2014-04-03 COMMENT Jaime Carrasco

Hasn’t owned this for a long time, but only because of the yield. He has it with a $48 target.


Price:
$39.210
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2014-03-31 HOLD Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Going to continue to hold this.


Price:
$38.610
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-26 COMMENT Brian Acker, CA

His Fair Market Value on this is $70, a 90% upside. Pays out 2.5% dividend yield. This is one of those stocks that is a perfect portfolio stock, so if you have a portfolio of 40 names, it is a perfect company to have in there. Thinks this grows along with its balance sheet. It is looking for a catalyst in terms of harnessing all the upside value and it will happen.


Price:
$36.610
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-21 BUY Norman Levine

Has been a disappointment along with most oil sands producers. Has been kind of just treading water and going sideways however, some of them have started to stick their nose up now, which he is very happy about. Would have no problem buying this. Thinks it has a great future. It has to break out of its sideways pattern. (See Top Picks.)


Price:
$36.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-20 PAST TOP PICK Greg Newman

(A Top Pick April 10/13. Up 23.78%.) Not doing a very good job at growing their cash flow per share growth right now. It’s only about 2.5% over the next couple years. Part of that is because, he assumes, they are not going to get anything from their Libyan production. Longer-term, this is a good company with a lot of catalysts. Does not see a compelling reason to buy this one over something else.


Price:
$36.470
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-18 COMMENT Bill Carrigan

Chart shows a disappointing period from late 2011 into early 2013 with a lot of congestion. It finally broke out in mid-2013 and he doesn’t feel it would do you any harm. Doesn’t see any more upside than what is already there. Imperial (IMO-T) and Husky (HSE-T) both tried a breakout and ran into resistance. If you’re happy with the yield, you are probably going to be okay with this but there are probably better places to be.


Price:
$36.350
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-17 BUY John Zechner

Likes the story, where they are in the oil sands.  Sees more US interest in the oil sands.  Not his Top Pick but a stable one.  It needs a move in the group overall and more positive sentiment for the oil sands.


Price:
$36.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-14 TOP PICK Ross Healy

Trading at about 1.25X Book. Against its own history, that is cheap. Decent earnings and good upside potential if the energy sector can get going. If it can’t, you are in bed and the mattress is right there, safe and solid. Very little downside risk. Yield of 2.54%.


Price:
$36.240
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-13 DON'T BUY Don Vialoux

This is in a period of seasonal strength, 3rd week of January right through until May of each year. Chart shows that it is not doing it this year. Technically it is underperforming the energy sector in general. Also, slightly underperforming the market. If it moves above its resistance of around the $38 level, this gives it a more positive technical picture and you could consider it at that time. Go with the ones that have the best momentum.


Price:
$36.250
Subject:
SEASONAL & TECHNICAL
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-12 DON'T BUY Lyle Stein

Had a really nice run over the course of the last 12 months as a result of the Warren Buffett’s stock purchase. This is an American name now because Warren likes it. Canada has really been hurting from oil differentials that have widened out. There is a discount being applied to the oil sands. This hasn’t been an area which investors favour. Wouldn’t add to this one anytime soon because there are other better plays out there. (See Top Picks.)


Price:
$36.700
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2014-03-12 HOLD Bruce Campbell (1)

Has good 8%-10% production growth over a decade. This is the one that Americans come to first because it is the largest one with the biggest market. He thinks there is better value elsewhere. It is not cheap enough for him to repurchase what he sold. (See Top Picks.)


Price:
$36.700
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-03-10 BUY David Baskin

If you are going to own only one large cap energy company in Canada, it should probably be this one. You’ve got the vertical integration working for you. Nobody is building refineries. They’ve got retail outlets and, of course, a lot of production. Have a very long lived resource in the oil sands. Their production and efficiency keeps improving. Still attractively priced. The cloud hanging over the company is of course transportation. We have all learned that rail transport is not a great solution and pipelines are vastly to be preferred. That oil will get to market one way or another. He feels the fair value is in the mid-$40s. If there was a solution on the Keystone pipeline, that would help.


Price:
$36.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEAR on COMMODITIES
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-07 BUY Michael Sprung

One of his largest holdings in the oil and gas sector.  The largest Canadian company.  Exposure to conventional, oil sands and downstream operations.  Sees potential for increased dividends.  Recommends it, even at today’s valuation.


Price:
$36.910
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-04 HOLD Bill Harris, CFA

They are still suffering from the Western Canadian Oil price.  Bought it last summer, but thinks he can get 8-10% rate of return.  Were struggling when they bought PetroCan.  The stock has not gone anywhere, but they have done an awful lot of fixing internally.  Now you are just entering a period where you have free cash flow with nothing to do with it.  He thinks he can capture the dividend and a couple of dollars of share price appreciation by year end.  It is in great shape for a long term hold.


Price:
$36.720
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2014-03-03 SELL ON STRENGTH Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

A short term active trader can chase this.  The spike in energy prices does not get reflected in the energy stocks.  Energy stocks are range bound and so should be sold on strength. 


Price:
$36.650
Subject:
MINING
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-03-03 WEAK BUY John Stephenson

A cash generating machine.  Will have to spend some money in the future and will eat up some of the cash that could come back to shareholders.  Prefers CNQ.


Price:
$36.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-02-24 DON'T BUY Peter Brieger

He likes it longer term but would like to see great production increases which will come when oil is shipped by rail or pipeline.  He would avoid it until then.


Price:
$36.970
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-02-21 HOLD David Cockfield

Nothing wrong with it.  CNQ has been outperforming everybody. The big seniors like SU have been on the shelf recently partly because of pretty steady selling by people convinced that production of oil is going to swamp the price, like Gas going from $6 to $2.  He thinks this theory is wrong.  We have huge imports that we can stop.  Thinks WTI will go up and beat Brent.


Price:
$36.650
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
Unknown
2014-02-13 BUY John Stephenson

Feels the story is “Grow” but not at any price. This has been the case for some time. Doing a good job of transforming this. It will take a little time to see it grow, but looking at what it is free cash flowing, about $8 billion per year, no one else can compare. He would think 10% upside would be very reasonable.


Price:
$36.800
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-12 DON'T BUY Bill Bonner

Husky (HSE-T) versus Suncor (SU-T)? He wouldn’t go to either one of these if he wanted to optimize his heavy oil exposure. Both of these are in the refining business and refiners are great when crude prices are low and gasoline prices are high. Thinks we are entering a period where the inverse may potentially happen so there will be compression on the refining margins.


Price:
$36.160
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2014-02-06 BUY Teal Linde

Came out with their guidance recently with growth not that high (about 4%).  And with similar dividend it is about 8% total return.  In April 2011 he advised getting out of resource and has only recently advised getting back in.


Price:
$35.790
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2014-02-06 COMMENT Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Is this a good one for a TFSA? One of the issues that you always run into with energy names is that they are cyclical in nature. You could go quite some time with a sideways movement. This would not be his top pick for a TFSA. He would rather have a non-cyclical good dividend paying company that runs smoothly with low volatility.


Price:
$35.790
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-02-03 WATCH Don Vialoux

In a trading range.  You are looking for a move above the range, which would be a buy signal. 


Price:
$35.640
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-01-30 BUY Dennis Da Silva

(Market Call Minute) Buffet likes it.  The defecto integrated oil sands growth.  Subdued growth.


Price:
$36.500
Subject:
CANADIAN RESOURCE
Bias:
BULLISH on NATURAL GAS
Owned:
Yes
2014-01-27 TOP PICK Bill Harris, CFA

He is not that enthusiastic about any of the stocks this week.  Over the last 4-5 years he sees much more cost discipline.  Thinks he can get something from this big stable company.


Price:
$36.320
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2014-01-27 BUY on WEAKNESS Peter Brieger

Hasn’t owned this for quite some time. A great story once you are a bit further down the way in terms of the East-West pipeline and the potential incremental refining in Montréal, and perhaps further east. Very cheap at 5X cash flow but his current problem is that he doesn’t see much growth over the next year or 2. If it took a hit for some reason, then he would be a buyer.


Price:
$36.320
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-01-24 COMMENT Jaime Carrasco

If this had a bigger dividend, he’d be much happier buying it for his more conservative clients. From a volatility spectrum, it is perfect for older people that require more cash flow and capital safety.


Price:
$36.910
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2014-01-22 HOLD Brian Huen

(Market Call Minute) Peck further down the food chain with smaller cap and higher growth.


Price:
$37.990
Subject:
MATERIALS, CONSUMERS & RISK-ARBITRAGE
Bias:
BULLISH US ECONOMY
Owned:
No
2014-01-22 COMMENT David Cockfield

Doesn’t hold this in large amounts. Perfectly good company. Integrated. Has certainly acted reasonably well over the last little while. Has been sort of stuck in the current range as almost all the integrateds have. Thinks it will probably break out. If we get the kind of growth rates they are talking about in the US and Canada, consumption of those products will go up. Good, long-term investment.


Price:
$37.990
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2014-01-20 PARTIAL SELL Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Energy stocks here are at the higher end of the range so he would tend to want to take some money off the table.  But years down the road it could be 20% higher. 


Price:
$37.540
Subject:
TECHNICAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-01-20 WATCH Ron Meisels

Energy stocks could be the surprise right now.  Developed an uptrend line and we are waiting for a break out.  If we get one it will be a significant event to bring it to $43.


Price:
$37.540
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - N.A. EQUITIES
Bias:
BULL on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2014-01-17 BUY Rob Stabile

(Market Call Minute.) One of the better oil sands companies. Sees some significant dividend increases in February.


Price:
$37.380
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-01-15 COMMENT Ryan Bushell

Recently taken a different tack under the new CEO, to be returning more capital to shareholders. Still a pretty small dividend yield, but increasing rapidly. Relative to Cenovus (CVE-T), they have a bit higher cost of production. Upgrading facilities in terms of upgrading mine bitumen to synthetic crude oil are expensive and prone to breakdown. Definitely a stable company though, and you won’t go far wrong owning this.


Price:
$37.350
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-01-14 COMMENT Brian Acker, CA

Stock closed yesterday at $37.25 and he has a model price of $71.26, a 91% upside. He doesn’t know what gets the stock going. Yield of about 2%. This should be a core position in a Canadian portfolio.


Price:
$37.240
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2014-01-13 PAST TOP PICK Eric Nuttall

(A Top Pick Jan 9/13. Up 14.41%.) Sold his holdings when he felt the easy money had been made. It might reach $40 at some point this year, giving you another 10%.


Price:
$37.270
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
No
2014-01-09 TOP PICK David Baskin

All the environmentalists hate the oil sands but the product is going to get produced. Feels it will get moved by pipeline as everyone probably sees the folly of moving this stuff by rail. There is at least 30 years of asset reserves at current output. Trading at about 5.5X cash flow. Downstream assets protect you when oil prices go down. Cost of production keeps getting lower and lower every year.


Price:
$37.290
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2014-01-08 COMMENT Martin Davies

A beneficiary of the tremendous difference between many other types of integrated companies. Have about 600,000 barrels a day of crude oil production and 400,000 barrels a day of refining capacity so there is a natural hedge. Has configured itself with the CEO to just go ahead and focus carefully on capital efficiencies in the types of projects that produce the longest term rates return. Throws out a tremendous amount of free cash flow, which allows them a huge amount of flexibility.


Price:
$37.470
Subject:
CANADIAN OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-12-30 BUY Norman Levine

Frustrating time to own it or any major oils in Canada, and oil sands exposure.  SU has a nice refining and market presence.  They have also been doing well on the East Coast.  Discount on oil sands oil should narrow going forward.


Price:
$36.880
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2013-12-18 COMMENT Michael Bowman

This is oil sands and there is a huge backlash globally on this. There are other Canadian companies that pay bigger yields and are dealing with light oil, which he would prefer.


Price:
$36.400
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-12-11 BUY Michael Sprung

This is his primary holding in the oil/gas area. Expects there will be significant capital appreciation. It is such a well diversified company with the oil sands, upstream and downstream operations and their retail operations.


Price:
$35.510
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-12-10 BUY Christine Hughes

On a macro picture, there is still a valuation mismatch between our shares and US shares. Feels that is just beginning to close and this company will benefit from that. On top of that there is a global economic growth and she thinks 2014 gets better, which will pull oil along. As well, Warren Buffett entered into the stock this summer, which gives it a halo effect.


Price:
$36.050
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-12-09 BUY John Stephenson

A long term play that will do very well.  Been weak the last month.  Thinks it is a core holding.  They are long term projects.  It is a patient play.


Price:
$35.810
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-12-04 BUY Robert Lauzon

This should be a name that you buy and put away. Likes that it is becoming more free cash flow positive and, is hinting to the markets, that dividends and greater dividends are important.


Price:
$37.110
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
BULLISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2013-12-02 PAST TOP PICK Jim Huang

(A Top Pick Nov 1/12. Up 9.66%.) This was a company that lost its way a little bit, but have really gotten back to basics by lowering costs, selling assets, reducing debt and focusing on free cash flow.


Price:
$36.930
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2013-11-28 BUY Genevieve Roch-Decter

A good investment in the producer space. The Fort Hills project has growth. Have commented to investors that they do not have any access to market issues for their growth. This is a free cash flow machine and is paying about $0.80 in dividends. Free cash flow next year will be about $1.80. Have been quite conservative with their capital.


Price:
$36.520
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
Bias:
BULLISH ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
Owned:
Unknown
2013-11-27 DON'T BUY Michael Bowman

You have to remember that there is a very strong global backlash against oil sands. That is another part of the whole complicated oil procedure. If you’ve held this one for 3 years, you have made no money on it. There is no upcoming trend in the market for this one. Small dividend.


Price:
$36.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2013-11-27 BUY Don Lato

Pretty good value here. Buy it for the long-term. He is a little nervous about the short-term prospects for oil prices. Stock has sort of gone sideways for the last 2-3 months. Has overcome some of their problems earlier in the year. Production looks like it is going to increase again next year and cash flow is solid. Trading at about 5.5X next year’s cash flow. Prefers Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) and Tourmaline (TOU-T).


Price:
$36.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2013-11-26 BUY Todd Johnson

Moved into this out of Petro Canada.  New CEO has had a bigger focus on returning cash to shareholders.  It can’t return to previous multiples.  Integrated producer so they can refine what they produce.  He worries about lower oil prices across the board.


Price:
$36.590
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-11-25 BUY Norman Levine

(Market Call Minute) It is undervalued and has huge cash flow that will allow repurchase of shares and an increase in dividend.


Price:
$37.240
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2013-11-20 BUY Jennifer Radman

Just put themselves in a position here they have very good cash flow.  Only Canadian one that will spin off cash while increasing production and while oil is falling.  Valuation is compelling. 


Price:
$37.850
Subject:
US EQUITIES
Bias:
BULLISH on US MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2013-11-15 COMMENT Josef Schachter

Had problems in refining and marketing in the quarter like everyone else but the oil sands side did $950 million in net earnings versus $537 million. Production volumes have gone up. BV is around $27.55. He feels a low $30 downside potentially if there is a drop in oil prices.


Price:
$37.360
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2013-11-12 BUY Nick Majendie

There are decent gains from here but has had a really good performance over the last 12 months. Very well run. Showing a lot of capital discipline. Great long-term growth prospects. Just sanctioned the Fort Hills project. This won’t be coming until late 2017 but there is lots of growth ahead of it and still reasonably priced. His target is $42 in the next 12 months.


Price:
$36.500
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2013-11-07 BUY Paul Harris, CFA

Has restructured because of their Petro Canada deal going through. Put the company together well. Management is really thinking about Return on Invested Capital and sold off assets that they don’t need. Also, have refining, which really helps them in this part of the cycle.


Price:
$36.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-11-06 DON'T BUY Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Has owned this for the 1st time in 2013 since 2008 when he got stopped out. This had needed an external jolt which came from Warren Buffett in the summer. Pretty fairly valued and there are cheaper names out there. 2.2% dividend.


Price:
$36.690
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-10-31 BUY David Baskin

(Market Call Minute.) He is supportive of the oil sands industry and this company in particular.


Price:
$37.890
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-10-22 DON'T BUY Rick Stuchberry

Was too cheap for quite a while and then had the move up.  It depends on the oil price.  It is fully price at $90 and cheap at $100.  The headwinds out of the oil commodity for next winter are not good.


Price:
$37.510
Subject:
CANADIAN & INTERNATIONAL ADRs
Bias:
BULLISH US ECONOMY
Owned:
Unknown
2013-10-16 BUY Norman Levine

Don’t read anything into Warren Buffet investing in it.  It has been going up because the company has been doing better operationally.  Good cash flow and dividend increases expected.  Thinks the breakout is the real deal.


Price:
$37.440
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on EUROPE
Owned:
Unknown
2013-10-15 TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

2.2% dividend.  $64.76, 75% upside.  From a value perspective you can’t beat it.


Price:
$37.120
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULL on US EQUITIES
Owned:
Yes
2013-10-08 COMMENT John O'Connell, CFA

This one is the flavour of the day. Great balance sheet. If and when the Americans come back to play in the Canadian energy patch, this will be one of the big “go to” names.


Price:
$35.810
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2013-10-07 PARTIAL SELL Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Spreads in oil prices are pretty close to the widest we have seen.  This stock has a Warren Buffet premium in it.  Thinks it will correct and you should trim your position and then buy back 10-15% lower next year.


Price:
$36.580
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BEARISH on US ECONOMY
Owned:
Unknown
2013-10-04 PAST TOP PICK Andrew Hamlin

(A Top Pick Nov 22/12. Up 12.16%.) Top quality company. A “go to” name if you want energy and oil sands exposure.


Price:
$36.690
Subject:
GROWTH & INCOME
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2013-10-02 BUY Greg Newman

Trading at a very cheap multiple of about 5.4X enterprise Value. Integrated model so it is relatively safe. Trading cheaper than NAV.


Price:
$36.810
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2013-10-01 WATCH Keith Richards

The longer-term trend is with you. The stock periodically does a little bit of consolidation. Chart shows higher highs and higher lows, which is a healthy profile. Right now it is in a consolidation phase and if it got to the trend line at about $17, it would be a buying opportunity. Great-looking chart.


Price:
$37.150
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
BULLISH on PIPELINES
Owned:
No
2013-09-30 PARTIAL SELL Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

If you write a call a year out then if it falls you get some premium.  He would cut a position in this in half at this point.  Crude oil prices belong in the low to mid-$90s for the next year.  Thinks oil will correct to this point and so SU could fall 10%. 


Price:
$36.830
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2013-09-24 HOLD Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Just recently bought this for the 1st time. These names are cyclical and are in favour and out of favour with all kinds of different factors, ruining what is a pretty good story for the last 10 years.


Price:
$36.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2013-09-23 COMMENT David Cockfield

This company has been acting very well. A favourite of American investors. When they decide to invest in the energy sector in Canada, this one tends to pop up to the top of the list. If you are not in the oil sector at all, this is probably not a bad investment. 2.1% dividend yield.


Price:
$36.980
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2013-09-16 HOLD Nick Majendie

Likes this very much. Has been a disappointing stock until the last 3 months when Warren Buffett disclosed that he had been buying. His target is in the low $40. Well run. Good capital discipline. Will be increasing their dividend over the next couple of years.


Price:
$37.250
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2013-09-13 BUY Alice Tsang

Likes the story. Generating free cash flow and there is a lot more growth coming forward when they bottle (?) Firebag so she does see valuation going higher. Currently trading at about 5X cash flow. In a very strong oil environment, if you have a longer time horizon, she could see another 50% on this stock. (Host Comment: $42 is the near-term consensus looking out 12 months.)


Price:
$37.350
Subject:
CANADIAN RESOURCE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS on METALS
Owned:
Unknown
2013-09-12 BUY Philippe Capelle

Producers and can refine their own production.  Suffer less from differential price.  Great free cash flow story.  Could see further increase in the dividend. 


Price:
$37.230
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2013-09-04 TOP PICK Michael Sprung

An integrated play that smoothes out a lot of the vagaries of the industry. Finally we are beginning to see some respect. He is somewhat bullish on energy and particularly likes the integrated companies. This company is going to benefit from the oil sands. Have good conventional plays going ahead. Have a refining market and a retail market. The dominant player in the Canadian energy field. Yield of 2.22%.


Price:
$35.830
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2013-09-03 BUY Norman Levine

Until recently, it has not been a very good performer ever since they did the Petrocan merger. They got all kinds of synergies on this but the market didn’t care because most of their production is in the oil sands which have been selling at a discount. As rail improves and pipelines get built differentials will narrow. Refining margins are very good.


Price:
$36.170
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-08-29 BUY on WEAKNESS John Wilson

A terrific name long term.  Great cash flow generator with shareholder-friendly policies. 


Price:
$36.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2013-08-29 BUY Paul Harris, CFA

Have done a very good job of sorting all the Petrocan issues out. You are seeing the cost structure coming down. The integrated really helps you in this environment, especially with all the issues of the oil sands.


Price:
$36.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & GLOBAL EQUITIES
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-08-28 BUY Genevieve Roch-Decter

Take away capacity out of the oil sands is no longer just dependent on one project, as you now have crude by rail. With their free cash flow generation over the next 5 years, they can afford to pay a 4% dividend so they will probably increase their dividend.


Price:
$36.470
Subject:
ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE
Bias:
BULLISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
2013-08-27 BUY James Telfser

(Market Call Minute.) Loves this one. Cheap stock and lots of Free cash flow.


Price:
$36.110
Subject:
Canadian Equities
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2013-08-26 BUY Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

Bought when he heard Warren Buffet bought it.  It will bring a lot of attention back to the sector.  Contemplated using it as a top pick but you can’t necessarily just hold it for the next year.  It has to be managed.  It is his most recent purchase.  Use a stop to get out.


Price:
$35.810
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2013-08-23 TOP PICK Bill Harris, CFA

On the Petrocan acquisition years ago, they were in a position where operating costs went from $34 a barrel to about $45 a barrel. You now have a company that is performing very well and have got discipline on the capital spending side. Throwing off tons of free cash flow. Yield of 2.2%.


Price:
$36.060
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2013-08-21 BUY on WEAKNESS Josef Schachter

A core name in Canada. Have fabulous assets. Did 500,000 barrels in the 2nd quarter. The company’s BV was $26.78 at the end of Q2. Sometimes the stock goes below $30, which would be a fabulous buy.


Price:
$34.850
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Unknown
2013-08-20 WATCH Bill Carrigan

Has had a big move.  Could be late to get in.  Almost at the old top.  Look at the double bottom.  The uptrend is still intact, but there could be resistance around $19.  If we break through that it could move higher.


Price:
$34.900
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2013-08-19 PAST TOP PICK John Stephenson

(Top Pick Aug 30/12, Up 16.82%) Still thinks it is a very good name.  You are fine to continue to hold it.  Soup to nuts company. 


Price:
$35.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US MARKET
Owned:
No
2013-08-19 COMMENT Eric Nuttall

Has performed very well, especially subsequent to the announcement that Warren Buffet bought into this company. He favours Cenovus (CVE-T) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) because of the relative outperformance. He likes the name, he just like some other names better.


Price:
$35.340
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2013-08-15 BUY Robert Lauzon

(Market Call Minute) Looking at efficiencies, free cash flow and higher dividends. 


Price:
$34.970
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2013-08-14 DON'T BUY Michael Bowman

In 2016-2017 it is predicted that the US will be the world’s largest oil producer. This is a real game changer. The US hates our oil sands oil. When it comes to oil, we need to stay clear of oil sands. When it comes to oil, he wants to buy nothing but light oil and he wants a big dividend. So he will look at something like Crescent Point (CPG-T) or Vermilion (VET-T).


Price:
$33.790
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2013-08-09 PAST TOP PICK Martin Davies

(A Top Pick April 30/12. Up 5.92%.) He thinks this will pass its old high of $34-$35. Still a Buy.


Price:
$33.210
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2013-08-07 TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

(A Top Pick July 31/12. Up 11.09%.) He sees 75% upside to his model price. The integrated oils are great value. Excellent yield of 2.4%.


Price:
$33.410
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-08-06 BUY Barry Schwartz

Generating the most free cash flow of any larger oil company. Totally undervalued. Doesn’t know why the market hates it. Trading at a very low cash flow multiple.


Price:
$33.630
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
BULLISH on TECHNOLOGY
Owned:
Unknown
2013-07-31 COMMENT Norman Levine

Has been frustrated that the stock has not moved a whole lot, even though its earnings have been doing very well. Have been growing the dividend very, very nicely. The problem is the same with any of the major oil players who are in oil sands operations, that is, until they can get oil out in large amounts. Once there is resolution of all or some of the pipelines being approved, the stock should do very, very well.


Price:
$32.460
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on GLOBAL STOCKS
Owned:
Yes
2013-07-26 BUY on WEAKNESS Jeff Young

Likes this. Good stock. Producing a lot of free cash flow, much more than they are spending in CapX. Historically they have spent almost for the sake of spending and not really worried about cost overruns but now they are talking more about not building to a time schedule but of building to a cost schedule. A lot more capital disciplined. If they can continue to keep showing cost discipline, the stock will keep doing well. Try to buy under the low $30.


Price:
$32.600
Subject:
CANADIAN DIVIDEND
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2013-07-23 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (1)

In the event of a turn down of Keystone, this is a little more vulnerable than alternatives that you could buy. Essentially all your eggs are in one basket. Also, thinks there are more vulnerable because it is the stock that Americans come up to buy first, it’s big and its liquid and it’s the oil sands play. However, he thinks Keystone is going to get approved so Americans might come up here and start buying energy stocks again.


Price:
$33.230
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
No
2013-07-23 COMMENT Mason Granger

Largest Canadian oil company. Generating about $3 billion this year in cash flow. Made a strategic shift away from “growth at any price” and are more focused on delivering investor returns to shareholders. Increased the dividend earlier this year. Waiting for some word in September about their plans to go ahead with Fort Hills so the stock might be in limbo a little.


Price:
$33.230
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2013-07-19 BUY David Cockfield

Keystone XL going through could help this company in terms of production out of the oil sands but the system has sort of adjusted itself. Trains are now hauling a significant amount of oil. It will do fine even if Keystone does not go through. An integrated company with refining, gasoline, stores so gives you a broad exposure to the market. He is becoming much more positive on the oil patch and pricing in general.


Price:
$33.000
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2013-07-18 BUY John Zechner

Dividend is absolutely safe.  It is growing and is hugely undervalued.  Oil spreads have tightened and make a tail wind.  One of his largest energy holdings.


Price:
$32.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2013-07-15 PAST TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

(Top Pick Jul 31/12, Up 7.93%) Still likes it $58.59 model price, 80% upside.  Maybe the value will be recognized over night.  When the differential is this much it puts pressure on management.


Price:
$32.300
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULL on US EQUITIES
Owned:
Yes
2013-07-15 PAST TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

(Top Pick Jul 31/12, Up 23.84%) $33.22, 15.3% upside.  3.3% dividend.  Nice upside in terms of model price and you can sleep at night with the balance sheet.  15-30% model upside is normal now.


Price:
$33.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULL on US EQUITIES
Owned:
Yes
2013-07-10 BUY Nick Majendie

Has been an extremely disappointing stock. Likes it at current levels. Thinks that the upside is $40. There has been a change in CEO and a real concentration on returning more to the shareholder. You have seen a significant dividend increase and he thinks this will continue. Good capital management.


Price:
$32.140
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on CANADIAN BANKS
Owned:
Unknown
2013-07-09 PARTIAL BUY Christine Poole

Good name. Great oil sands company and if you want exposure, this is a great name to own. The issue is, how are they going to get their product out. The whole infrastructure issue is an important one for long-term investors. Definitely the resource is there but it is matter of getting it to market. With the US slowly becoming more energy efficient, we need to find places to get it offshore. Probably not a bad time to start picking at it.


Price:
$31.980
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2013-07-08 HOLD Keith Richards

A lot of oil stocks are starting to show some life. However, there is a bit of a ceiling on this one at about $35 so there is a level of resistance coming up. If you own, stay in it as there are probably a couple of bucks in it but watch the $35 level as a possible Sell level.


Price:
$31.600
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2013-07-03 BUY Michael Giordano

What is your outlook on the assumption that the XL pipeline is never built? With or without the pipeline, he is quite happy holding this because they are an integrated player. As a refiner they can capture the full pricing of oil when they market it at the end product. Producing 550,000 barrels per day right across Canada. Excellent operations. Doubled the dividend to 2.5%.


Price:
$31.160
Subject:
CANADIAN RESOURCE
Bias:
BULLISH on NORTH AMERICAN ECONOMY
Owned:
Yes
2013-07-02 DON'T BUY Lorne Steinberg

Huge oil sands play in Canada.  The whole oil sands is very high cost oil.  If oil drops it will have a massive impact on their stock price.  It is probably the best in the group, however.


Price:
$31.200
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BEARISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
No
2013-06-25 PAST TOP PICK Brian Acker, CA

(Top Pick July 31’12, Down 0.92%) 80% upside to model price.  There is a risk to come back to EBV.  It is out of favour and unloved.  Pays a dividend now.  It is cheap.  He has another oil pick for today.  He would hang with it.


Price:
$30.370
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Yes
2013-06-24 WATCH Peter Brieger

If they do the cross-Canada line then it will benefit SU-T.  Wants to see this more promising before jumping in.


Price:
$30.360
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2013-06-21 TOP PICK Alice Tsang

Very cheaply valued at only about 5X cash flow. This is an integrated player. There are a lot of things they are doing that could improve their costs as well as wrapping up production. Yield of 2.61%.


Price:
$30.800
Subject:
CANADIAN RESOURCE
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2013-06-20 COMMENT Eric Nuttall

To get US investors to come back to the stock en masse, the Keystone project is very important, despite the positive impact that rail has had. As a company that is devoting more capital to more projects, he feels investors are really leery of this. They prefer to look at it is a free cash flow machine.


Price:
$30.830
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2013-06-14 WATCH Don Vialoux

He is watching it closely.  A lot of the oil sands stocks are showing signs of bottoming and this is one of them.  It is finally forming a nice little base.  Strength is July to Oct.  We are getting close to this time. Oil stocks have not responded to the breakout in oil price today.  He is looking for $112/barrel for West Texas oil by end of September.


Price:
$30.960
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2013-06-11 HOLD Bruce Campbell (1)

(Market Call Minute.) May be a buy when the US guys get more interested.


Price:
$31.070
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2013-06-07 BUY David Cockfield

Excellent quality. Integrated including gas stations. Margins have improved. Had sold his holdings but is now looking at this again. This is a good, long-term hold. Not a big yield.


Price:
$31.660
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2013-06-05 BUY Bill Bonner

A great proxy on the unfolding Canadian oil/gas situation, where prices are going to be robust. Probably a pretty good bet.


Price:
$31.550
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL & GAS
Owned:
Unknown
2013-05-28 PAST TOP PICK Michael Giordano

(A Top Pick May 17/12. Up 19.07%.) Prospects continue to be excellent. Produce 550,000 barrels per day. Integrated so they capture the best pricing for their oil. Generating free cash flow. Increased their dividend 50% to of about a 2.5% yield.


Price:
$32.350
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2013-05-22 BUY John Wilson

Tremendously long lifed.  Going out 3 years you could own this stock if you don’t worry month to month.  Returns a lot of cash to shareholders.  Ultimately he thinks Keystone will get approved but it will take longer than people think.  2.4% yield.  Should increase dividend every year and maybe throw in a big buyback.  If oil goes up you get good leverage to that.


Price:
$32.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2013-05-17 STRONG BUY Norman Levine

Depends on the price of oil, and the differential between what they are producing in the oil sands and what West Texas Intermediary does. Likes Suncor thinks it's very cheap here.


Price:
$32.920
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2013-05-15 BUY Todd Johnson

Has been a big disappointment in terms of it's production growth. A recently cancelled voyager upgrade project wasn't really a surprise. Not the company it was 3 or 4 years ago.

Valuation is attractive, which is why they continue to hold it.  New CEO is expected to increase the dividend. Recently positive on Suncor.


Price:
$32.220
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
Owned:
Yes
2013-05-10 DON'T BUY Bill Harris, CFA

It is just not that cheap (on operating costs).  He owns CVE-T. 


Price:
$32.040
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
DEFENSIVE
Owned:
No
2013-05-06 BUY Ben Cheng

Integrateds are moving to a model that looks more like an income trust.  They are going to focus on returning cash to shareholders.  He thinks this is a good thing.


Price:
$30.810
Subject:
REITS, INCOME STOCKS & HIGH YIELD BONDS
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on US ECONOMY
Owned:
Unknown
2013-05-02 HOLD Rick Stuchberry

They just raised the dividend recently.  Horizontal drilling technology is as important to energy as the micro chip was to electronics.  SU will be in a trading range for some time.  With a 4% yield you can sit and wait.


Price:
$30.820
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE & iNTERNATIONAL ADR's
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2013-04-30 TOP PICK Martin Davies

Had a joint venture with Total (TOT-N) and both companies decided that the new upgrader was not going to go ahead and it looks like that was the right decision. Recently restated good oil sands production growth of over 4%. Also, just announced an increase in their quarterly dividend. Yield of 2.58%. Sees it  at over $40 in 12 months.


Price:
$31.410
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
BULLISH on ENERGY
Owned:
Yes
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