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Sherritt International Corp. Stock Symbol: S-T

Notes:60% coal, 30% Cuba in oils and nickel mines.

Last Price Recorded: $2.5800 on 2015-05-22

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2015-05-20 DON'T BUY Paul Gardner, CFA

Would you buy their 8% - 2017 bond? He likes the bond side, simply because when they owned the Saskatchewan metallurgical coal deposits, if Cuba and Madagascar failed, he would at least have an asset that he could grab and would make him whole. They have since sold the Saskatchewan holdings and are now left with Madagascar and Cuba, so you are now dealing with the underlying commodity price that keeps rolling off. The bond is being offered out at around 9% in today’s market, which tells you it is distressed. High-yield bonds should be trading at around 7%. Secondly you are going to have to deal with Madagascar, where the operations seem to be coming on, but there was a big delay.


Price:
$2.540
Subject:
FIXED INCOME, LARGE CAP DIVIDENDS AND REITS
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2015-05-14 PAST TOP PICK Jim Huang

(A Top Pick May 12/14. Down 40.54%.) The thesis was based on their leverage to the nickel price. In the meantime, Indonesia decided they were not going to export raw ore to China, which is 25% of the total supply. Also, the Chinese economy has slowed down more than he thought it would. Sold his holdings, but that is not to say he won’t get back in.


Price:
$2.770
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-05-07 COMMENT Benj Gallander

Looked at this closely, but didn’t have a tremendous amount of confidence in management. This is based on the price of nickel, what is going on in Cuba and what is happening in Madagascar. It has a lot of potential.


Price:
$3.050
Subject:
CONTRARIAN INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-05-06 PARTIAL BUY John Stephenson

Still an attractive company. Cuban relations seem to be improving with the US. The Ambatovy nickel project seems to be moving forward. He can’t see any reason why you wouldn’t consider a small allocation of this.


Price:
$3.040
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-05-01 COMMENT Bruce Campbell (1)

If you do an asset value, you get a vote $8 on it. He owns the fixed income on this. It is moving nicely. Nickel prices have finally rebounded this week. Ambatovy just achieved 90 and 90, meaning running at 90% capacity of the mine for 90 days. That is a big deal, and costs came down. If they can keep that going and costs come down a bit further, the stock probably goes into the mid-$3.


Price:
$2.660
Subject:
CANADIAN LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2015-03-31 DON'T BUY Paul Gardner, CFA

Bonds? He doesn’t own any thing in this company because of 1) the big Ambatovy mine in Madagascar took a little longer and the overall nickel market is terrible. 2.) He had owned their bonds because of their Saskatchewan assets, but once they sold off, it became a lot riskier. The underlying commodity has now sewered. For the bond, they have enough cash flow to do all right, but you need a recovery in the price of nickel.


Price:
$2.090
Subject:
LARGE CAP DIVIDEND PLAYERS, REITs & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BULLISH on CANADIAN MARKET
Owned:
No
2015-03-26 DON'T BUY Benj Gallander

Lots of difficulties.  He did not come away from the AGM with their management.  It could be a success but right now he is just too scared.  They likely won’t go bankrupt but he does not have confidence in their management.


Price:
$2.210
Subject:
CONTRARIAN INVESTING
Bias:
CONTRARIAN
Owned:
Unknown
2015-03-23 BUY John Stephenson

Nickel is necessary to make stainless steel.  The problem is relatively weak demand and good supply.  Nickel is fine and S-T would be a way to play it.


Price:
$2.290
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2015-03-03 COMMENT Dennis Da Silva

One of the big issues around nickel as a commodity is the export ban in Indonesia. They would like to have smelters built within the country for more value added revenue, rather than just exporting raw material. This has provided a bit of a support mechanism for nickel. This company is a very unique way to play the nickel side of the market. They sold their thermal coal royalty business, so really putting themselves in a more leveraged nickel business. Their Ambatovy mine in Madagascar is still in the ramp up stage, so there is still the sensitivity in ramp up risks. He sees good progress. With a couple more quarters of ramp up progress, with no negative surprises, this is something he might look at in the 4th quarter going into a stronger market in 2016.


Price:
$2.390
Subject:
CANADIAN RESOURCE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2015-02-13 COMMENT Brendan Caldwell

It will be interesting to see what the new rapprochement between Cuba and the US, will actually mean for this company over the next while. Not surprised the company has taken a bit of a hit since that announcement. Speculation might be that Freeport-McMoran (FCX-N) may want their property back, but he thinks that is a long ways from actually happening.


Price:
$2.330
Subject:
CANADIAN VALUE
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-27 PAST TOP PICK Joey Mack

(A Top Pick Feb 24/14. Up 2.9%.) Sept 24, 2020, 7.5%. He still likes this. Did a great job of terming out their debt right before the meltdown.


Price:
$2.140
Subject:
FIXED INCOME
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2015-01-23 HOLD Jaime Carrasco

His company has it with a sector outperform, but with a high level of risk. Target of $4 in 12 months. He hasn’t had any base metals for a while. Nickel prices are going to be in check because of the rise of the US$.


Price:
$2.150
Subject:
RESOURCE, UTILITY & REITs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2015-01-22 HOLD David Cockfield

The world demand for nickel of this type has gotten really subdued.  The key is how good their margins are going to be in Madagascar.  He considers it interesting, but is not comfortable with the risk.


Price:
$2.200
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2015-01-06 COMMENT Jim Huang

The stock has fallen, but not because the company is doing anything different. The mining space has been quite volatile. Especially with the oil price falling you see a lot of volatility in the mining space. They continue to ramp up their project in Madagascar and are set to produce a lot more nickel this year, which will drastically improve their earnings profile. Also, the partial lifting of sanctions to Cuba by the US is going to help them.


Price:
$2.790
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2014-12-23 COMMENT Benj Gallander

Kicked the tires on this one. Went to the AGM and management didn’t make him jump for joy. Doesn’t like the debt load. He is wary of it. Has a lot of potential upside, but there is a lot of danger.


Price:
$2.880
Subject:
CONTRARIAN INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2014-12-22 COMMENT Darren Sissons

The story around Cuba is a fascinating one, but he thinks this is a coal story as well. You have to have an expectation of what is going to happen to coal and what is going to happen in terms of natural gas. When you buy commodities, you buy them when they are on sale, and they are at the moment. If you have a long enough time frame, you’ll probably do okay.


Price:
$3.070
Subject:
GLOBAL LARGE
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2014-12-22 SELL Don Vialoux

This is a news event type of stock, which is being driven by 2 major things. First of all is the news from Cuba. They are the largest corporation that is dealing in Cuba right now. Has had a huge move this month percentage wise. It is also becoming a major nickel producer. Have had some problems getting their nickel mine up and running, which is why the stock continues to be under pressure. With the blip we have seen recently, the technicals are not that great. Thinks there are better opportunities over the next couple of months in other areas. If you own, consider taking some profits.


Price:
$3.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-19 DON'T BUY Keith Richards

This company, like most of the industrial type companies, is trending down. As a technical analyst, he wouldn’t even look at the stock at this time. Until he sees the trend line broken and some sort of a base, there is no reason to own the stock when there are so many great looking charts out there which are actually doing what he wants them to do.


Price:
$3.230
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-18 DON'T BUY David Burrows

They have exposure in Cuba on one side, but then they have the big mine on the other side.  He would not buy just on the change in political situation in Cuba.


Price:
$2.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2014-12-17 COMMENT David Baskin

It took a while for Cuba to start opening up with the US. On today’s news, this stock went up over 25%. However, they are still not out of the woods. There is going to be tremendous opposition from the Republicans in Congress, particularly the 3 Republicans of Cuban-American heritage. It is far from clear whether Obama will have the clout, as a lame-duck president, to do what he really wants to do, which is to end the embargo. If he ends the embargo, then there can be trade between the 2 countries of all kinds of assets, and not just this opening salvo of $100 worth of cigars and a trip to a resort.


Price:
$2.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2014-12-12 COMMENT Bruce Tatters

Copper’s outlook in the next 6-12 months is a challenge. Zinc and nickel have better looking outlooks. This company is a pure play nickel producer, but they haven’t been a terrific operator. Wouldn’t be his 1st choice.


Price:
$2.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
No
2014-11-20 HOLD Hank Cunningham

Thoughts on the 2018 and 2020 bonds considering the recent events? The company just redeemed a lot of its earlier bonds and issued the bond in 2022, to put out the maturity date so there is less pressure for the company to meet any principal maturities short term. If you own, he would Hold. This company has always had a good rapport with the street.


Price:
$2.680
Subject:
FIXED INCOME
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2014-11-20 HOLD Hank Cunningham

7.5% Sept 24/2020 bond? This is one of the better firms that is dealing with the street. Just redeemed a lot of their bonds early and replaced them with a longer term bond. They have a balance sheet where there are no forthcoming principal maturities that will cause them any anxiousness in the bond market.


Price:
$2.680
Subject:
FIXED INCOME
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2014-11-17 WATCH Benj Gallander

Never had the stomach to go in and buy it.  Does not have as much confidence in management as he would like.  Has always seen a lot of risk with it.  At the last AGM he was not encouraged by their strategy.


Price:
$2.760
Subject:
CONTRARIAN INVESTING
Bias:
CONTRARIAN
Owned:
No
2014-11-13 HOLD Mohsin Bashir

It is more than the commodity price itself.  The Madagascar facility is mostly to blame.  Costs are coming in quite high.  2015 will be seen as a period of difficulty for them.


Price:
$2.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2014-11-12 SELL Paul Gardner, CFA

2018 & 2020 Bonds.  They missed earnings and cut jobs.  He has held the bonds for a long time.  He exited about a year ago because they sold off their Saskatchewan coal assets.  You would have always had the ability to grab the Saskatchewan assets if things went wrong so he sold the bonds since they sold the Canadian assets.  He exited the stock as well.


Price:
$2.660
Subject:
FIXED INCOME, LARGE CAP DIVIDENDS AND REITS
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2014-11-10 TOP PICK Joey Mack

Sherrit 8% bonds maturing Nov. 15, 2018. Sold their coal business and restructured their balance sheet. This is the shortest term maturity the company has. It is a good time to take a look at them because of the balance sheet restructuring.


Price:
$2.600
Subject:
FIXED INCOME
Bias:
Bullish on Fixed Income
Owned:
Yes
2014-10-28 DON'T BUY Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

A leverage play on nickel prices. Lowered the amount of production coming out of the Madagascar mine, and pushed out and lengthened the life of the mine. Also, the ban on iron ore in Indonesia affected the price. There will be a lot of torque to the upside when nickel prices get back on firm ground. Believes there are better names and better sectors to be.


Price:
$2.690
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
BEARISH on ENERGY
Owned:
No
2014-10-08 COMMENT Benj Gallander

Never had the courage to buy this. Went to their AGM this year, but management did not give him enough confidence to buy into the company. Doesn’t particularly like the financials. There is a lot of debt there. A lot of this company is based on the Madagascar play, which could turn out to be very good for them. On his Watch List.


Price:
$2.840
Subject:
CONTRARIAN INVESTING
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
No
2014-10-01 DON'T BUY Don Vialoux

We are testing a multi-year low.  The trend is down.  These are not good signs.  Performance relative to market is negative and it is trading below its 20 day moving average.


Price:
$3.140
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
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