| BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 65.000 | One of the better takeover candidates in the group. Has one of the lower valuations, in part because it’s one of the only large caps that doesn't have an oil sands play. | 2006-04-25 | |
| BUY | | Atlas Energy Ltd | AED-T | 5.750 | Primarily involved in heavy oil development. Had a relatively weak 2005 and the market has somewhat punished them. They are in the midst of a huge development program that will result in production probably doubling over 12 months. Summertime is the prime time for heavy oil. | 2006-04-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 97.790 | Their new annual report announced that their resource estimate in the oil sands was bumped from 11 billion barrels to 14 billion. Low-cost producer in the industry with enormous unbooked assets. | 2006-04-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Western Oil Sands Inc. | WTO-T | 35.880 | The most highly priced of the oil sands smaller independent companies. | 2006-04-25 | |
| BUY | | Duvernay Oil Corp | DDV-T | 43.800 | Just brought on a couple of major gas plant expansions. Within a week they will be 18,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Relatively high priced because of their phenomenal growth record. Their track record of drilling success has been extraordinary. | 2006-04-25 | |
| BUY | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 57.140 | Disappointing number. A number of operational issues and will continue to have some in the second quarter. One of the cheapest in its peer groups. Have a big oil sands plant that they will be announcing. | 2006-04-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Enbridge | ENB-T | 33.250 | One of North America's largest oil pipeline companies. Most closely tied to major oil sands expenditures and growth. Have $8 billion in construction projects on their drawing boards. A growth story. Terrific dividend history. | 2006-04-25 | |
| BUY | | Cyries Energy Inc | CYS-T | 14.450 | Natural gas weighted. If you want to be a contrarian, sell oil stocks and buy gas stocks. One of the better quality companies. Tremendous management team. | 2006-04-25 | |
| BUY | | Rider Resources Ltd. | RRZ-T | 16.920 | Natural gas weighted. If you want to be a contrarian, sell oil stocks and buy gas stocks. One of the better quality companies. Tremendous management team. | 2006-04-25 | |
| BUY | | Savanna Energy Services | SVY-T | 30.810 | Their big story is coiled tubing drilling. A new technology for the oil patch. It's faster, cheaper and extremely well suited to shallow gas and coal bed methane drilling. There is some talk of it turning into a trust which has boosted the price. | 2006-04-25 | |
| SELL | | UTS Energy | UTS-T | 7.170 | Very highly valued relative to its asset value. Directly tied to an oil sands project that is five years away. | 2006-04-25 | |
| BUY | | Fairborne Energy Trust | FEL.UN-T | 16.350 | Have had a bit of a slow start coming out of the gate. Has a significant natural gas focus which has been out of favour. You can buy looking for natural gas to go up or wait for it to actually happened. | 2006-04-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Birchcliff Energy Ltd. | BIR-T | 7.100 | Natural gas focused. Projecting 8000 barrels a day in production growth versus 5000 at the end of 2005. Fundamentally cheap. A good contrarian move. | 2006-04-25 | |
| BUY | | Arc Energy Trust Units | AET.UN-T | 27.500 | One of the best run income trusts out there. Somewhat natural gas oriented. Very sustainable. | 2006-04-25 | |
| BUY | | Centurion Energy International | CUX-T | 13.910 | Entered into a joint venture with Royal Dutch to explore for natural gas on their two largest concessions in the Nile delta area. Based on their findings, they will pursue a LNG project to consume the natural gas. | 2006-03-20 | |
| BUY | | Iteration Energy | ITX-T | 4.700 | A reverse takeover of Hawker resources. A problem is that its single largest property is jointly held with the retirement savings of Ontario Municipal Employees and they want a “go slow” approach. Good management. You can own, but be patient. He was a financing agent for them in the past 12 months, but doesn't own. | 2006-03-20 | |
| TOP PICK | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 52.680 | Doesn't own. Have sold their Syrian assets at a great price. Later this year, they will disclose their oil sands plans in Fort McMurray. Trades at 10 X earnings. | 2006-03-20 | |
| WATCH | | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 83.600 | This would have been his number two pick in integrateds. Trades at 20 X earnings while Petro Canada only trades at 10 X earnings. A great stock to own for the long-term. Just coming of a rally and this may be the start of a pullback. | 2006-03-20 | |
| WAIT | | Berens Energy Ltd. | BEN-T | 2.640 | Doesn't own, but was a lead underwriter for financing in January. Primarily natural gas focused resulting in a bit of a pullback. Very conservative management. Have a few high growth prospects. Expect it to be midyear before there is any increase in pricing in natural gas. | 2006-03-20 | |
| HOLD | | Cyries Energy Inc | CYS-T | 13.050 | There is speculation on an income trust or a merger which would result in an income trust. Something will happen, so be patient. The latter half of 2005 showed a slow growth period. A solid management team. | 2006-03-20 | |
| TOP PICK | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 63.700 | The Horizon oil project is a $10 billion project expected to develop 230,000 barrels a day. The project is on time and on budget. | 2006-03-20 | |
| BUY | | Calfrac Well Services Ltd | CFW-T | 31.250 | Specialist in natural gas well fracturing. This whole business is so strong that he would both Calfrac Well Service (CFW-T) and Trican Well Service (TCW-T). | 2006-03-20 | |
| TOP PICK | | Trican Well Service Ltd. | TCW-T | 49.850 | The largest independent company in natural gas well fracturing. This whole business is so strong that he would own both Calfrac Well Service (CFW-T) and Trican Well Service (TCW-T). | 2006-03-20 | |
| WAIT | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 53.090 | Feels that natural gas prices are going to be in a trough for the next couple of months. A better opportunity should be available in the next few months. | 2006-03-20 | |
| BUY | | Connacher Oil and Gas | CLL-T | 5.060 | Have been involved in a proposed oil sands project. Tending to move to natural gas. Looks like it has a good future. Have also been involved in buying a refinery in Montana. | 2006-03-20 | |
| WAIT | | Ensign Resource Service Group | ESI-T | 40.850 | Seasonality wise, this is the time of the spring breakup and oil drilling ceases. The second quarter is the weakest one for oil field service companies. They have a large proportion of their rigs in the Rocky Mountain region which is one of the growth areas in drilling activity. Likes their story and their future. You could probably wait a couple of months for a better price. Prefers this over Trinidad Energy Services (TDG.UN-T). | 2006-03-20 | |
| BUY | | Duvernay Oil Corp | DDV-T | 40.200 | Largely natural gas oriented so it has had a pretty good pullback. Has been fabulous for generating drilling prospects and growing at an above average rate to its peers. Will continue to be the number one growth story in the intermediate sector. | 2006-03-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Trinidad Energy Services | TDG.UN-T | 17.190 | Prefers Ensign Energy Services (ESI-T). | 2006-03-20 | |
| BUY | | True Energy Trust | TUI.UN-T | 20.750 | The high yield does not indicate a risk. This was a recent conversion to a trust and it takes time for the sellers of the old stock and the buyers of the new trust to bring the price to its proper level. | 2006-01-23 | |
| TOP PICK | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 53.180 | They sold their Syrian producing assets which is good for the company. Have some good partnerships. Looking for increased production this year. | 2006-01-23 | |
| BUY | | Cardero Resource Corp. | CDU-T | 4.340 | Coal bed methane gases are very shallow to drill, but the flow is very slow so you need high gas prices to make an operation viable. This is one of the companies that he likes. They have a substantial amount of drilling. | 2006-01-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Synenco Energy Inc. | SYN-T | 22.890 | Just recently became public. They have no production. Their assets are oil sands leases. They sold a piece of their project to the Chinese. They are now preparing to build an oil sands project. A high risk vehicle. | 2006-01-23 | |
| TOP PICK | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 69.010 | Last year's earnings were up 40%. Cash flow was up 33%. Looking for a 10% volume growth this year which will mean another 20% growth in cash flow. This stock gives you 100% of a brand-new plant in the oil sands to be constructed this year. | 2006-01-23 | |
| BUY | | Atlas Energy Ltd | AED-T | 5.170 | They are involved in a conventional heavy oil play called Moony and they are using horizontal drilling to exploit it. Original estimates of a field at 14 mi.² is now 18 mi.². Should see 20/30% production growth next year. Trades at a low multiple. Because it is heavy oil, it is vulnerable to oil fluctuations. | 2006-01-23 | |
| TOP PICK | | Western Lakota Energy Services | WLE-T | 17.850 | A drilling rig company that is expanding rapidly. Last year, they had an average of 18 drilling rigs and exited the year with 34. By the end of this year they will be 50/51. The P/E ratio will drop from 30 X’s to 13 X’s. Very cheap stock, but you have to look out to 2007. | 2006-01-23 | |
| SELL | | UTS Energy | UTS-T | 5.960 | Has a target price of $4.50. Loves the project and the company has done a brilliant job. Thinks the market is making a mistake in thinking this company will be taken over. | 2006-01-23 | |
| BUY | | Savanna Energy Services | SVY-T | 31.010 | Heavily involved in coiled tubing drilling which is the type used for shallow wells and especially coal bed methane. They are ideally suited for the most rapid growing sector of the drilling business. Prospects are excellent. | 2006-01-23 | |
| HOLD | | Shell Canada | SHC-T | 46.900 | Integrated oils give a bit of downside protection. This is one of the oil sands companies and their production is going to double or triple if their game plan stays in force over the next 10 years. Has a tremendous dividend growth record. Prefers Petro Canada. | 2006-01-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 55.270 | Suffered quite a bit last year from natural gas hedges. In the current year, they have about 22% of their gas hedged at only five dollars. | 2006-01-23 | |
| BUY | | Duvernay Oil Corp | DDV-T | 42.250 | The company is remarkable for its growth and its ability to keep coming up with new ideas for growing production. Expect it will continue to be one of the superior performers. | 2005-11-07 | |
| HOLD | | Centurion Energy International | CUX-T | 11.050 | The one reason it has not performed that well this year is that it is almost 100% natural gas which is sold at a relatively fixed price. Hasn't had any participatiuon in the runup of oil prices. You buy this one for exploration sucess in the future. Fairly valued at this price. | 2005-11-07 | |
| TOP PICK | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 43.450 | Very cheap stock. In the doghouse with investors since Jan/04 when they downgraded their reserves and production growth outlook. A major partner in Newfoundland will be coming on line at 100,000 barrels a day at the end of the year. Their partner Syncrude is also expanding production. Fort Hills oil sands is expecting 200,000 a day. | 2005-11-07 | |
| BUY | | Bow Valley Energy | BVX-T | 4.710 | Has 2 developments coming on in the North Sea in 2007/2008 which will result in a near tripling of the company's production. Today's price is based on current reserves. | 2005-11-07 | |
| BUY | | Atlas Energy Ltd | AED-T | 4.390 | Stock has not done that well because they've had a bit of a shaky growth pattern in the last couple of years. They're on the cusp of a substantial amount of drilling in already discovered reserves. Sees the production growth being in the top quartile of the group over 2006/2007. Low multiple. Some heavy oil. | 2005-11-07 | |
| BUY | | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 33.750 | The entire service industry is pushed to the limit with their capacity of people and equipment. Outlook for them is awfully good. | 2005-11-07 | |
| TOP PICK | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 55.000 | Recently announced they are going to develop 500,000 barrels a day of oil sands through mining and upgrading. Have an enormous amount of reserves that are not producing. Long life reserves. | 2005-11-07 | |
| BUY | | First Calgary Petroleums | FCP-T | 7.240 | Because they couldn't get a buyer, they raised enough money to do 18 months of drilling to prove that they have the gas reserves. 2 cautions, 100% natural gas outside of North America and government takes about 85% of their production. Stock should do well when they come up with some drilling results. | 2005-11-07 | |
| TOP PICK | | Birchcliff Energy Ltd. | BIR-T | 5.900 | 80% natural gas. Tends to be under researched. Public guidance is that they are going to do about 4500/4800 barrels in the 4th quarter and going to do annualized of $1 a share. Those numbers were done in the summer when gas prices were lower. At $6 you are paying about 4 X cash flow. | 2005-11-07 | |
| WAIT | | UTS Energy | UTS-T | 4.520 | Petro Canada (PCA-T) and Teck Cominco (TEK.MV.B-T) are partners in the oil sands. They are now in the sweet position of owning 30% of a project of only having to put up $100 million of the first $2.5 billion of spending. Fully priced. Wait for a lower oil price environment. | 2005-11-07 | |
| WATCH | | Petrobank Energy and Resources | PBG-T | 9.400 | Experimenting with a new technique (THAI) to extract bitument from the ground. This company is at the higher risk of the spectrum because their business is dominately related to their oil sands ventures. The one underpinning of the stock is that they do own reserves. | 2005-09-14 | |
| TOP PICK | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 49.590 | Volume is going to start growing now. What really tips the balance in their favour is the oil sands. | 2005-09-14 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Viking Energy Royalty Trust | VKR.UN-T | 8.490 | A lot of income trusts are going to have to raise distributions to avoid income tax. This one is very oil oriented. Wouldn't be his #1 choice. | 2005-09-14 | |
| BUY | | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 53.600 | One of the great Canadian international success stories. Feels the lawsuit in Bangladesh is frivolous and will go away. Bangladesh is a small part of their operations. Stock dropping is a buying opportunity. India natural gas is about half the price of US. | 2005-09-14 | |
| TOP PICK | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 55.000 | One of the most successful companies year in year out. They have 100% interest in a new oil sands play (Horizon). Will start at 115,000 barrels a day and will grow to 230,000. 40 years reserve life with no exploration risks. | 2005-09-14 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Black Rock | BVI-T | 10.470 | Has not been a fan of this stock, but they are 100% oil and the higher the price of oil, the better their leverage. Relatively high production costs. Low quality oil so their price is $20 below the regular rate. Doesn't expect it will become an income trust for a long time as they have a very aggressive growth strategy which will require a lot of capital. | 2005-09-14 | |
| TOP PICK | | Rider Resources Ltd. | RRZ-T | 18.150 | 90% natural gas. Given the concerns of the hurricane Katrina, it is expected natural gas prices will be strong. These people have not hedged. Drill for all their gas instead of relying on acquisitions. | 2005-09-14 | |
| BUY | | Cyries Energy Inc | CYS-T | 17.420 | Good management. Has been dramatic in both production and price performance. Highly oriented to natural gas, more than 60% of production. | 2005-09-14 | |
| BUY | | True Energy Inc | TUI-T | 4.280 | Doing very well. Has a good track record. There aren't many natural gas companies you can invest in. Good value in its peer group. | 2005-07-07 | |
| WAIT | | UTS Energy | UTS-T | 2.930 | Since PetroCanada (PCA-T) came in as a partner, it has gained enormous credibility with more certainty that the project will get built. Warrants are exercisable at $0.70 and there are a substantial number of them outstanding. In the short term, as these warrants are excercised, supply could bear down on the stock price. Rich in oil reserves. Very risky. | 2005-07-07 | |
| TOP PICK | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 48.240 | Stock has been on fire for about 3 years. When oil prices rose, the value of their reserves grew enormously. Have sanctioned an oil sands plant and they own 100% of the project. | 2005-07-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | | GeoGlobal Resources | GGR-A | 6.500 | Very small company with only 5 or 6 employees. They only have one well in this discovery. Production sharing contracts in these countries can be onerous. The value of production and reserves are substantially less than they would be in developed countries. | 2005-07-07 | |
| BUY | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 83.700 | His top pick in the integrated oils. The lowest priced on earnings and cash flow. Have made some valuable moves, and the market is starting to recognized them. Being in an oil sands plant in Fort McMurray has added a lot of oomph to future reserves and production. A stock split is highly possible. | 2005-07-07 | |
| TOP PICK | | Duvernay Oil Corp | DDV-T | 33.480 | Highly focused on natural gas. An incredibly impressive company in its ability to generate exploration prospects, drill them successfully and get them into production. Have the most impressive prospect list of any company. Trades at about 8 X this year's cash flow and his target price is based on 9 X next year's. Very lofty valuations. | 2005-07-07 | |
| BUY | | Birchcliff Energy Ltd. | BIR-T | 4.300 | Has an extremely well priced incentive program for the executives. Stock has to double within 5 years from $3 a share before it takes effect. Trades well below peer group companies. | 2005-07-07 | |
| BUY | | Enerflex Systems | EFX.UN-T | 24.500 | Oil field services in general ahve been a terrific place to be. | 2005-07-07 | |
| TOP PICK | | Taylor NGL LP Fund | TAY.UN-T | 9.320 | Runs a natural gas processing plant. Derive their product from industry flow of natural gas in major pipelines. Extremely well managed. They're incentivized to make distributions per unit grow. Trades at a cash return of about 8.5%. Acquisition minded, so should see distributions grow. | 2005-07-07 | |
| BUY | | PetroKazakhstan Inc | PKZ-T | 47.110 | Has been rocketed this year by bad news. The Indian National Oil Company approached them about a possible takeover. This could result in a 3 way bidding war. | 2005-07-07 | |
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