| Comment | | Denison Mines Corp | DML-T | 7.530 | Price has come down because spot price for uranium dropped to about $70. Also, a lot of uranium companies were getting valued at a premium to their NAV. Probably near a bottom, so it should turn around soon. | 2008-04-18 | |
| TOP PICK | | Hemisphere GPS Inc. | HEM-T | 3.710 | Manufactures precision GPS equipment for the agricultural and Marine segments. 85% of their revenue comes of agriculture. Product saves farmers money and time. Also becomes more attractive as a farmer's land-base expands. Expect a great quarter reported in the next week so this is a short-term buying opportunity and a long-term hold. | 2008-04-18 | |
| TOP PICK | | MagIndustries Corp. | MAA-X | 2.750 | They refurbish and replace existing turbines in power plants and there is a power crisis in Africa right now. A bigger play is their massive potash deposit in the Congo. Recently spun out a small portion of that development into a private company. Raised money to start funding the first stage, which was about $480 million for the entire phase 1. They are left with $400 million, about $2 a share. | 2008-04-18 | |
| TOP PICK | | Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. | STP-N | 47.050 | One of the biggest cell manufacturers globally. Have an integrated model where they are playing in each part of the value chain and can protect their gross margins going forward. 2 or 3 months ago, they pre-released that the 2008 production would be 530 MW, below expectations. Long-term, they are one of the best-positioned companies. Good price. | 2008-04-18 | |
| Comment | | Pacific Ethanol Inc. | PEIX-Q | 3.630 | Believes the ethanol business will grow in the future. Trading at about 75% of the replacement cost of their plant so it is trading at less than what it would cost them to build the plants. Thinks that the plants that forge through right now will prosper in the long run. | 2008-04-18 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Arise Technologies Corporation | APV-T | 2.480 | (A Top Pick Nov 22/07. Up 1.7%.) Short term he is neutral on this one, but long-term the stock could double. Just announced an increase in their stock capacity from 350 MW to 560 MW. Also going to start construction on a 10,000 metric ton polysilicon plant, which he feels is a “sky in the pie” plan. Near term will need quite a bit of money which will hold the stock in. | 2008-04-18 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | First Solar Inc. | FSLR-Q | 285.790 | (A Top Pick Nov 22/07. Up 34.7%.) Likes this one for the long-term. This is the long-term, going to survive, IBM, Apple of the solar industry. Wouldn't make it an overweight holding, but would put a little bit in your per photo. | 2008-04-18 | |
| PAST TOP SHORT | | VeraSun Energy Corp. | VSE-N | 6.950 | (A Top Short Nov 22/07. Down 29.8%.) Valued at about 75% of its replacement cost. If you take that down to 50%, that would mark the all-time low and it could go down to $4 or $5 but he wouldn't continue holding this as a Short position as it will probably go nowhere for the next couple of years. | 2008-04-18 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Timminco Ltd. | TIM-T | 22.950 | Recent deal with the German solar manufacturer is quite significant. A problem with metallurgical silicon is that no one knows what the problems will be in 10 or 20 years. Will cells degrade quicker than conventional cells? Stock has reached a point where it is not going to definitely be a home run. Still looks attractive based on earnings potential, but shorts are starting to come into the market now. Long term he is positive on it. | 2008-04-18 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | | 5N Plus | VNP-T | 12.110 | This is one that he has struggled with because it is one of the best exposed companies for the solar industry but is a little bit expensive on an earnings basis. If you believe that the industry will grow at 30% or 50% per year for the next 10 or 20 years, which he does, this company will definitely prosper. Wouldn't make it an overweight holding. | 2008-04-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Polaris Geothermal Inc. | GEO-T | 1.000 | Small start-up geothermal company. Once you actually find the thermal resource, what it produces is competitive with grid power prices. However, very capital intensive, which drags down returns. He would rather play the manufacturer side. Biggest one is Ormat Technologies (ORA-N) | 2008-04-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | US Geothermal Inc. | GTH-T | 2.780 | Small start-up geothermal company. Once you actually find the thermal resource, what it produces is competitive with grid power prices. However, very capital intensive, which drags down returns. He would rather play the manufacturer side. Biggest one is Ormat Technologies (ORA-N) | 2008-04-18 | |
| Comment | | Uranium One Inc. | UUU-T | 4.670 | Uranium industry is getting near its bottom, but you just don't know how long it is going to take. What will move this stock is when commodity prices start to move up. You should be in good shape in 18 months. | 2008-04-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | ATS Automation | ATA-T | 4.090 | 3 different business lines including a solar business. Key feed stock for making a solar cell is polysilicon, which is in a massive global shortage. They have not been able to secure this so are using other material resulting in the cost structure lagging. Margins are practically negative. | 2007-11-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Western Wind Energy | WND-X | 1.800 | Operate wind farms in California and have about 35 MW of capacity with plans to move it up to about 200. Acquired older wind farms that operated since the 1980’s and are not as efficient. Prefers others. | 2007-11-22 | |
| BUY | | Timminco Ltd. | TIM-T | 10.990 | They are still on track to get their production going in December for the manufacturing of polysilicon. That will get them 1200 metric tons and their next 2 lines should get them to 4000 in the 1st quarter. The shortage is supposed to be eased in 2009 so the high prices they get may ease off. Buy it in the $10’s. | 2007-11-22 | |
| BUY | | Canadian Solar Inc. | CSIQ-Q | 14.600 | Produce solar cells in China. Q3 results had earnings of $.11 while the street was expecting $0.05. Have announced contracts to sell modules to a group to build a farm in Spain. Still under 20X 2009 earnings. | 2007-11-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Naikun Wind Energy Group Inc. | NKW-X | 3.450 | A wind farm developer. Have a big project, 1.75 GW, on Vancouver Island, which hasn't started producing it. Doesn't believe they have the permitting or authorization nor are their transmission lines. A very premature company. | 2007-11-22 | |
| WATCH | | Ormat Technologies | ORA-N | 46.820 | Would like to play the geothermal space through this company. They create the equipment and help with the site development for geothermal projects. They are in the right spot in the value chain. Fairly expensive right now but if the market continues to sell off it would be one he would put on his shopping list. | 2007-11-22 | |
| TOP PICK | | Arise Technologies Corporation | APV-T | 2.120 | Has 2 solar Top Picks and this one is more speculative. Has pulled back giving it an attractive buying opportunity. Currently in the process of getting 2 lines for producing solar cells up and running in Germany. They will be making more efficient cells. Short-term efficiency goal is 18% and long-term is 22%. | 2007-11-22 | |
| TOP PICK | | First Solar Inc. | FSLR-Q | 212.500 | One of the most expensive solar stocks. Will be the IBM, Dell or Mac in the solar space. In the most recent quarter they announced they will be able to produce solar cells at a cost of $1.15 a watt. As the polysilicon shortage unwinds itself, they will have an advantage. | 2007-11-22 | |
| TOP SHORT | | VeraSun Energy Corp. | VSE-N | 9.810 | Economics on ethanol refiners has gone right down the toilet. Not making any money and are aggressively ramping up capacity. As they ramp up, construction loan financing terms are almost like that teaser rate mortgages. In the next month or so, the US admin may update the renewable fuel standards, which would give a pop to the stocks. Wait till this comes out before shorting. | 2007-11-22 | |
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