STOCKCHASE

13.020

Been a tough one. All life insurance cos. are exposed to interest rates. They put in significant hedges, but they can’t come out from under the low interest rates. You will have to wait a while before you see growth. It is not an emphasis in his portfolio. Wait 6, 9, or 12 months at least.

2011-10-26

TOP PICK

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

37.350

(Top Pick Nov 10/10, Down 23.78%) Badly neaten up and taken back to almost the 2008 scenario. Market is saying we are into a deep recession in 2012, which he does not believe. Good value, 8x earnings lots of cash. Some issue with fixing business in Europe but he is confident they will fix it.

2011-10-26

BUY

POT-T

49.750

Likes it. Potash fundamentals keep getting better from a supply/demand perspective.

2011-10-26

DON'T BUY

20.890

Rumors they will be delayed on the next generation product and will miss Christmas. Another misstep by the company. Another value trap. They are loosing market share.

2011-10-26

DON'T BUY

Rona Inc

RON-T

9.450

Big value trap. Is cheap for a reason. Suffering from same store sales growth declines. If you can’t grow traffic and revenue you have to take along hard look at the company.

2011-10-26

BUY

Royal Bank

RY-T

48.160

Large position in his portfolio but his favourite is TD. Issues delivering earnings growth. Over next 3 years thinks they will eventually get out of the issues. It is third in his list. Their brand is improving.

2011-10-26

BUY

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

SNC-T

49.450

Likes it and owns it. In his opinion it is well positioned. They have concession business worth $22 a share (e.g. 407 highway). The rest of the business is very undervalued. They are exposed to Libya and had to take charges against some of that business. Now they may have to go back and finish what they were working on. But he thinks there are enough projects back here.

2011-10-26

PAST TOP PICK

74.020

(Top Pick Nov 10/10, Up 3.8%)

2011-10-26

DON'T BUY

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

13.970

Have been suffering from a lack of confidence from investors and was smacked hard from investor sin the last 3 months. They have not delivered on expectations. Are still in a transformational phase. Prefers SU.

2011-10-26

PAST TOP PICK

Telus Corp

T-T

53.790

(Top Pick Nov 10/10, Up 25.70%) Executed better than expected on TV offering.

2011-10-26

N/A

0.020

Market: He is taking a hard long look at China. They are they key to this whole equation. He is not that concerned with it. Market has caught up with data that shows they are slowing. 9% is all we need. He is careful with banks. There are lots of issues that could easily fall off the rails. Has had good performance in his dividend paying portfolios. They have been solid as a rock and are a safe haven.

2011-10-26

WAIT

Barrick Gold

ABX-T

46.980

Was a little miffed by their acquisition of a copper company earlier in the year. Now feels this copper acquisition will be very cash flow generative for the company. Likes it for the growth profile. Good management. Wait for the US debt issue to be settled.

2011-07-26

TOP PICK

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

5.940

Stock has pulled back about 14% over the last 2-3 months. Headline risk in that Boeing (BA-N) announced they were going to re-engine some of their 737s so market now questions if their C series planes are going to sell as many as they originally thought. This is an opportunity. Expects very good earnings growth over the next several years. Target is conservatively $7.

2011-07-26

TOP PICK

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

40.620

He is using $100 oil prices for this year and 2012. Had a fire at the Horizons project earlier this year but will be coming on stream in August. This will result in about 110 thousand barrels a day in production. That will drive cash flows for the end of this year and into 2012. Expects 15% volume growth between 2011 and 2012. $55 target.

2011-07-26

PAST TOP PICK

Calloway REIT

CWT.UN-T

25.450

(A Top Pick July 20/10. Up 25.23%.)

2011-07-26

WATCH

Goldcorp Inc

G-T

49.960

His favourite gold stock. Expecting a 15% upside from here. Likes the growth in the production profile. Has executed extremely well in terms of delivering on promises in terms of new mines. Short-term, gold prices could have a pullback once the US debt crisis is settled.

2011-07-26

DON'T BUY

Loblaw Companies Ltd

L-T

37.900

Loblaws (L-T) or Shoppers (SC-T)? Doesn't particularly like either of them. If he had to pick one he would give the benefit of the doubt to Shoppers.

2011-07-26

WATCH

15.600

Was probably the most leveraged company to the stock and bond market coming of 2008. Have done an incredibly good job of de-leveraging in the last two years. Sees some decent upside potential. He has a $19 target, but is a little nervous on this given where interest rates and where the stock market has gone. $19 would be 18-24 months. Next quarter could be a little dicey for them.

2011-07-26

TOP PICK

47.550

(A Top Pick July 20/10. Up 30.65%.) With a slowdown in auto-parts because of the Japanese disaster in the first quarter, this company fell in sync with the auto companies slow down. Good potential for growing market share in content per vehicle. $60 target.

2011-07-26

DON'T BUY

25.860

Value trap. Very cheap on the basis of forecasted earnings. Trading 5-6 times earnings. They are losing market share, especially in the US. Last quarter was showing signs of weakness on international growth.

2011-07-26

DON'T BUY

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

41.030

Loblaws (L-T) or Shoppers (SC-T)? Doesn't particularly like either of them. If he had to pick one he would give the benefit of the doubt to Shoppers.

2011-07-26

DON'T BUY

Shaw Communication (B)

SJR.B-T

21.550

Had owned this for a long time but saw better upside potential in some of the other names within the cable and wireless space. Prefers Rogers (RCI.B-T) and Telus (T-T). Not 100% clear on the company's direction so not sure how much upside is left.

2011-07-26

BUY

78.680

One of his top holdings. Executing very well. Strong domestic franchise. Expects the US market will continue to be a sleeper for them in terms of being a positive. His target is $90.

2011-07-26

PAST TOP PICK

78.680

(A Top Pick July 20/10. Up 15.53%.)

2011-07-26

DON'T BUY

Yellow Media Inc

YLO-T

2.260

Market is focused on a highly leveraged balance sheet. EBITDA is deteriorating or flattening. The company must keep its debt level below 3X the level of EBITDA that they are generating. Market is concerned that by 2012 they will have trouble meeting their covenants. Believes distributions will be cut.

2011-07-26

Comment

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

0.020

Safe havens. One of the best areas for safe havens is dividend paying stocks. They provide you with some downside protection in the event the markets go down.

2011-07-26

DON'T BUY

Aecon Group Inc

ARE-T

9.070

Wants to see some changes in the earnings profile before he goes in. Looking at the economic backdrop, they should be very well positioned. Have been struggling in some of their divisions, have had some management changes and struggling with earnings growth.

2011-05-11

PAST TOP PICK

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

6.690

(A Top Pick April 12/10. Up 27.4%.) Still buying. Outlook for aerospace business is looking like it is getting better and the transportation is also very strong.

2011-05-11

Comment

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

36.940

Whole Telecom space looks decent but not a ton of upside. Has had a big pop in the last month or so. With their dividends, it makes a great defensive stock. Good hold for the longer term.

2011-05-11

DON'T BUY

Cameco Corporation

CCO-T

26.670

Just sold his holdings because he sees some uncertainty for the company and the prospects for uranium over the next 6-12 months.

2011-05-11

STRONG BUY

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

40.240

Premier oil company in Canada. Fire at their oil sands project has knocked out a good portion of their oil production this year. There will be an incremental increase in the 3rd quarter and another leg up in the back half of the year. Great stock, especially at this level.

2011-05-11

Comment

Kinross Gold

K-T

13.970

Made a large acquisition last year (Redback Mining), which had a very large mine in Africa. This mine continues to get bigger and bigger but Kinross hasn't been able to deliver a clear picture on how they are going to develop it. Have also had some operational hiccups and higher cash costs, so investors have been getting frustrated. African mine probably won't be resolved until the end of the year.

2011-05-11

BUY

POT-T

50.200

A top analyst just upgraded this as he sees better pricing for the commodity and better upside in the stock. Especially higher demand in India. Sees good upside.

2011-05-11

TOP PICK

Power Corp

POW-T

28.180

Financial conglomerate. Trading at a significant discount to its net asset value and he sees a 20% upside. Also, a great way to get cheaper exposure to Great West Life (GWO-T) and Investors Group (IGM-T).

2011-05-11

HOLD

Calfrac Well Services Ltd

42.480

Didn't meet their guidance in the 1st quarter but have kept their annual guidance to $7.50 in earnings. Consensus earnings estimates by analysts is significantly lower at about $6.30. Even using $6.30 it is trading at 7X earnings, but they only need 2.5 million Playbooks to be sold to get them better than the $6.30.

2011-05-11

TOP PICK

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

SNC-T

53.550

Construction engineering with over $6 billion in back logs. Contrarian call. Building an airport and man made river in Libya and had to exit temporarily. Good earnings visibility on earnings and revenues. Trades at a slight discount to its US competition.

2011-05-11

HOLD

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

45.500

You have to have a longer term outlook for this sector. This company has a lot of upside potential because of coal and copper. He has a $65 6 to 12 month target.

2011-05-11

PAST TOP PICK

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

20.640

(A Top Pick April 12/10. Up 23.4%.) Looking for further news on their South American initiative.

2011-05-11

DON'T BUY

Transat A.T. Inc (A)

TRZ.A-T

11.600

Clearly any headwind in the airline business is the cost of fuel. He owns Westjet (WJA-T) because of their better execution and their better earnings outlook.

2011-05-11

BUY

Westjet Airlines

WJA-T

14.490

As they continue to penetrate the eastern Canadian triangle, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City with more regular flights, there is a terrific opportunity to steal market share. Expecting very good earnings growth.

2011-05-11

TOP PICK

CFW-T

33.950

Oil service company in Canada and US. Pressure pumper and does high pressure fracing. Adding a lot more horse power capacity. Tremendous earnings growth potential at 67% this year and he forecasts another 25% next year.

2011-05-11

Comment

0.020

Market. Market is concerned about inflation and higher interest rates and the result on the outlook on commodities. Sees it as a blip. China just declared a 5.2% inflation rate and the market is worried they will have to raise interest rates. Biggest driver for that is oil prices. Most commodities are rolling over after reaching the resistance level. He uses $100 oil in his estimates and if you fast forward a year with $100, inflation shouldn't be as a big an issue as the market sees right now.

2011-05-11

Comment

0.020

Gold. Looks on this as a trading vehicle and sees it at between $1,500 and $1,600 an ounce. He is a little bit underweight as it is hovering around the upper end of the band. The nice thing is that gold stocks do not reflect anywhere near the gold price.

2011-05-11

DON'T BUY

LuLulemon Athletica

LLL-T

92.860

Believes in the company and they have great growth prospects but trades at a very high P/E multiple. Will probably earn about $2.50 next year but P/E multiple is way too dear for him. Would have another look if it traded in the low to mid $70's.

2011-05-11

PAST TOP PICK

PetroBakken Energy

PBN-T

15.710

(A Top Pick April 12/10. Down 37.59%.) Sold last summer. Have very high decline rates.

2011-05-11

HOLD

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

59.640

Likes story longer term. US acquisition they made late last year will be a little bit of an overhang for the stock because 1) have to raise some equity to pay for it and 2) how well they can integrate it into their US business model.

2011-02-10

HOLD

CAE Inc

CAE-T

12.740

The good thing is that the airline business is getting stronger and airlines are ordering more planes. Ultimately they are going to have to train pilots. This is a late cycle stock.

2011-02-10

PAST TOP PICK

Canadian National R.R.

CNR-T

69.310

(A Top Pick Dec 16/09. Up 23.51%.) Still likes.

2011-02-10

SELL

Kinross Gold

K-T

16.510

Biggest news was their purchase of Redback Mining giving them a huge resource in Africa. That will be the driver for their growth going forward. Will have to deliver on production volume growth, which will put some of risk on it for the next little while. His preference would be Goldcorp (G-T) (by a Mile) and 2nd choice would be Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T).

2011-02-10

TOP PICK

56.570

Ford reported some weak initial numbers in the beginning of the year and the stock pulled back a bit. Increasing market share and content per vehicle. Overall North American vehicle production market is growing. 13% revenue growth this year and 25% earnings growth. Very attractive valuation.

2011-02-10

BUY

Rogers Communcations (B)

RCI.B-T

34.700

Growth has slowed. One of the key drivers was the wireless business but they no longer have the network advantage over competition. Likes their core values and feels it is worth $40.

2011-02-10

Comment

78.520

Probably his favourite stock from an operations perspective. Closing in on his target price. Expecting a high single digit rate of return from this point on. Good long-term hold. Royal (RY-T) has better upside if you are trading around your account.

2011-02-10

PAST TOP PICK

78.520

(A Top Pick Dec 16/09. Up 24.94%.) Still likes.

2011-02-10

BUY

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

58.490

Large exposure to metallurgical coal and copper, which are in really good shape. Pull back yesterday was disappointment on volumes on coal and some of the realizations on prices. A Buying opportunity.

2011-02-10

HOLD

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

22.760

Believes in the new business model that the new CEO has brought in. Better focus and growth and improving the reserve life of the assets. Short term target is $24 but thinks there will be more running room. Just made a timely acquisition from BP, which he thinks is going to be a sleeper.

2011-02-10

WAIT

Osisko Exploration Ltd.

OSK-T

13.740

Has been reducing his weighting on this. Goldcorp (G-T) owned a significant piece and they sold it. Have a mining project that is coming on stream in the next couple of months and usually this creates teething issues. Longer term, good story but fully valued today. Over time they will be able to grow their resource and production.

2011-02-10

PAST TOP PICK

PetroBakken Energy

PBN-T

21.190

(A Top Pick Dec 16/09. Down 29.17%.) Sold his holdings.

2011-02-10

TOP PICK

Tourmaline Oil Corp

TOU-T

23.950

Natural gas. Management team has a stellar track record. Will triple production over the next few years with a very aggressive capital expenditure program. A lot of liquid rich natural gas and can break even on a $3.65 gas price and can make very acceptable returns on current $4 pricing. Over 1 million acres gives them lots of runway for growth over the next few years.

2011-02-10

TOP PICK

MEG Energy Corp

MEG-T

45.600

Oil sands SAGD technology. Low cost producer. Currently producing 25,000-27,000 barrels a day. Growing their Christina Lake project (2nd phase) that will more than double production by 2013. Putting application in for phase 3, which will more than triple production by 2016.

2011-02-10

WAIT

Aecon Group Inc

ARE-T

10.170

Operates in 4 divisions. Challenges in their building division hurt them. This quarter had some problems in their Industrial area. Very large backlog but there is some margin pressure. Needs to see a couple of more quarters.

2010-11-10

BUY

Calloway REIT

CWT.UN-T

24.270

Most REITs have done exceedingly well because of lower interest rates. Yield of around 6%.

2010-11-10

DON'T BUY

Iamgold Corp

IMG-T

17.980

Not enamored with this one. Have some operational challenges with some of their properties. Prefers Goldcorp (G-T) because over the next 5 years they will be growing production by about 60%.

2010-11-10

PAST TOP PICK

15.200

(A Top Pick Oct 22/09. Down 29.88%.) Sold most of his holdings in this. Fully valued.

2010-11-10

TOP PICK

99.920

Knocked the ball out of the park for 3 consecutive quarters in earnings growth. Increased content per vehicle. Will try to improve margins in Europe.

2010-11-10

PAST TOP PICK

Rogers Communcations (B)

RCI.B-T

36.490

(A Top Pick Oct 22/09. Up 28.21%.) Still likes.

2010-11-10

TOP PICK

73.600

Strong leader in domestic franchise. Better earnings growth than most of the other banks. Comfortable with their US exposure.

2010-11-10

HOLD

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

48.390

A lot of mining stocks are bumping up against where he thought they would be. Wouldn’t put new money in at over $50. Likes their prospects. Good copper and coal exposure.

2010-11-10

TOP PICK

Telus Corp

T-T

45.470

3rd quarter was in line. Have gone through the big CapX of their HSP overlay. Good free cash flow and attractive yield of about 4.6%.

2010-11-10

PAST TOP PICK

Westjet Airlines

WJA-T

12.880

(A Top Pick Oct 22/09. Up 11.81%.) Still likes.

2010-11-10

BUY on WEAKNESS

Westshore Terminals Inc.

WTE.UN-T

23.320

Stock price reflects a lot of good news but in order for it to go higher, they would have to expand their capacity, which will take a number of years. Would consider in the $20 range.

2010-11-10

DON'T BUY

Yamana Gold Inc.

YRI-T

11.730

Lagged the golds. Now have a dividend, which will be of interest to some investors.

2010-11-10

DON'T BUY

Bankers Petroleum

BNK-T

7.280

Just sold his holdings. Had lots of potential but had a significant production slip up last quarter. Not comfortable with guidance they will give for next year. Too pricey right now.

2010-11-10

SELL

PetroBakken Energy

PBN-T

20.600

Longer term it looks interesting but he needs a better understanding of the decline rates. Decline rates now are closing in on 40%, making it difficult for them to grow. Spending a lot on exploration in the Cardium with some results being just OK. Needs to see some improvement out of the Cardium.

2010-11-10

BUY

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

31.500

Strong dividend yield. Very defensive in this kind of a market. Moved up a little higher than he thought it would have been the last 6 months. Good dividend yield.

2010-07-20

PAST TOP PICK

Canadian National R.R.

CNR-T

62.980

(A Top Pick May 12/09. Up 36.49%.)

2010-07-20

TOP PICK

Calloway REIT

CWT.UN-T

21.800

Not a lot of upside from a capital appreciation perspective but it has a 7%+ yield. Pay out 93% of their funds from operations and this is sustainable.

2010-07-20

BUY

Enbridge

ENB-T

51.940

Very attractive dividend yield. Has had a good run but still has reasonable value. Excellent management.

2010-07-20

TOP PICK

75.920

Haven't owned this for many years. Contents per vehicle is higher. Rock solid balance sheet. The proposed transaction to buy out Frank Stronach’s multiple voting shares gives him confidence. If this gets done this company will get re-rated.

2010-07-20

PAST TOP PICK

57.730

(A Top Pick May 12/09. Down 31.33%.) Reduced his weighting in this in his portfolios. Has an $80+ target price but this is under review.

2010-07-20

PAST TOP PICK

Royal Bank

RY-T

53.540

(A Top Pick May 12/09. Up 28.46%.)

2010-07-20

DON'T BUY

Sunlife Financial

SLF-T

26.600

Hitting a 52-week low because everyone is worried about Q2 numbers coming up. Interest rates and the stock market don't help earnings prospects. At the end of the 1st quarter capital levels were acceptable but he is not 100% sure what earnings are going to look like given interest rates. This is in better shape than Manulife (MFC-T) right now.

2010-07-20

TOP PICK

71.680

Sees 14% earnings growth from 2011 versus 2010. Dominant market share in Canada in the personal/commercial business. Growing in the US. Part of the earnings growth comes from his belief that credit losses will continue to improve. As interest rates rise, it helps the margins.

2010-07-20

BUY

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

36.310

A bit of a controversy regarding the US pipeline and if they are going to get approval but he thinks it will happen so this is an opportunity. Really juicy dividend yield.

2010-07-20

BUY

Yellow Media Inc

YLO-T

5.910

Very unique business model. Very narrow range where you Buy and Sell. Anything below $6 is a Buy. Really juicy yield and he doesn't think they will cut their distribution. The big concern is what the business will look like in a couple of years.

2010-07-20

Comment

Daylight Energy Ltd

DAY-T (Dead)

9.050

Likes their growth prospects but in a $70 oil price environment balance sheet at the end of 2011 will look a little stretched. In an $80 price environment (which he subscribes to), debt to cash flow in 2011 is more comfortable.

2010-07-20

BUY

Bankers Petroleum

BNK-T

7.270

Has pulled back in the last 3-4 months like most energy stocks. Still has a lot of potential upside. The more they continue to drill, the more they increase their reserves. As they continue more horizontal drilling, he expects they will improve their recovery rates.

2010-07-20

TOP PICK

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

5.500

Pulled back after the aerospace business disappointed making it an opportunity. Transportation side still delivers very good margin improvement. Extremely good backlog. Could get as high as $6.50.

2010-04-12

BUY

Bank of Nova Scotia

BNS-T

50.690

There are a number of compelling factors to own banks right now. Good dividend yields and you have a better option of getting better earnings/growth over the next few years.

2010-04-12

PAST TOP PICK

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

78.690

(A Top Pick May 12/09. Up 32.85%.) Still likes. One of his largest oil weightings. Good growth prospects.

2010-04-12

SELL

Iamgold Corp

IMG-T

15.390

Prefers other gold companies. Stock is suggesting a gold price of just over $1000 an ounce and he thinks gold will trade between $1000 and $1200.

2010-04-12

DON'T BUY

20.000

Likelihood of increasing dividends in the next year would be a surprise to him. Still not sure how regulators are going to deal with Life Insurance companies capital. His calculations show that this one has the highest upside potential in the financials but doesn't know how long it will take to get there.

2010-04-12

DON'T BUY

Jean Coutu Group (PJC) (A)

63.610

Decided not to invest in this after looking at the earnings growth and valuations perspectives. He would reconsider at a lower price.

2010-04-12

DON'T BUY

PJC.A-T

9.300

Ontario government has put a cloud over this whole sector. A sleeper in their company was a generic drug company so as a result of Ontario changes, there could be some difficulties in this as well.

2010-04-12

BUY

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

POT-T

114.460

Down about 10% in the last 10 days because of profit taking. Fertilizer companies tend to not do so well in spring planting period. Fundamentally, things are starting to turn around for them. Think potash prices have stabilized and we now need to see a recovery of volumes.

2010-04-12

PAST TOP PICK