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| Shauna Sexsmith of MFC Global Investment Management |
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| BUY | Agrium | AGU-T | 54.880 | Likes this with or without the C.F. Industry acquisition. Undervalued relative to Potash (POT-T) by 20%-30% on NAV and about half the PE multiple. Thinks they will eventually acquire C. F. Industry. | 2009-09-08 | ||
| HOLD | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 4.640 | Had a pretty good quarter considering the environment we are in. Margins on the transportation side have been steadily improving. Balance sheet is in pretty good shape and have enough liquidity to manage this economic downturn. Economic environment has to improve for order numbers to pick up. | 2009-09-08 | ||
| TOP PICK | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 44.830 | Of all the banks, it has the best exposure outside of Canada. Latin America is an underdeveloped market in terms of financial services. ROE of about 19%. Strong Tier 1 capital ratios. | 2009-09-08 | ||
| BUY | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 65.700 | Has everything from oil sands to Canadian Western conventional to N. Sea to offshore West Africa. Great production and cash flow growth. Cheap. | 2009-09-08 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 56.980 | You have every right to be concerned about this because of the natural gas prices. At the end of the last recession, 2001-2002, natural gas bottomed around $2 and we are currently at $2.74. Despite global growth/Chinese demand, natural gas is purely a domestic commodity. We need economic recovery and increase in industrial production to drive natural gas demand. | 2009-09-08 | ||
| TOP PICK | Eldorado Gold | ELD-T | 12.150 | Best growth prospects going forward. Has done extremely well in Turkey. More products in the pipeline than most other gold producers. Recently acquired Sino-Gold giving them lots of exploration potential in China. | 2009-09-08 | ||
| HOLD | Finning Int | FTT-T | 16.900 | Largest global dealer in Caterpillar equipment. While diversified base including oil sands, South American dealerships in the UK. Good, solid, economic recovery kind of story. | 2009-09-08 | ||
| Comment | Kinross Gold | K-T | 23.580 | Gold. Impressive production growth over the last number of years from 1.6 million ounces to about 2.4 million ounces. Have good projects that will be coming on stream after 2013 but until that time it has limited scope for production growth. Great stock longer-term but not for short-term production growth. (See Top Picks.) | 2009-09-08 | ||
| BUY | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 85.600 | Have been growing earnings over 20% a year and is expected to continue this over the next 2 to 3 years. Trading at a 15X forward multiple. When the PE is lower than the growth rate, that is a Buy signal for growth managers. | 2009-09-08 | ||
| Comment | Royal Bank | RY-T | 56.840 | Largest bank in Canada but has some US assets that cause some concern. Had a great quarter because of vote 50% of their revenues came from trading. Has the best ROE in the business. Strong franchise but the shares are priced to reflect that. (See Top Picks.) | 2009-09-08 | ||
| BUY | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 67.380 | Just reported a fairly decent quarter. Been building its business on the US retail side that offers them opportunity, as well as some risk. Likes this but her favourite is Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T). (See Top Picks.) | 2009-09-08 | ||
| TOP PICK | Crescent Point Energy Corp | CPG-T | 36.950 | Excellent production growth. Largest landholder in the Bakken area with phenomenal production growth. Just acquired a private company (Wave Energy) that increases its land position. 90% of its production is light oil. Add on pullbacks. | 2009-09-08 | ||
| HOLD | Agrium | AGU-T | 88.100 | Wouldn't be worried about this one. Hasn't had a full quarter yet after their acquisition of United Agri-Products (UAP). Lags Potash (POT-T) and Mosaic (MOS-N) because it wasn't as pure a potash play. Thinks their diversification is a good thing. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| TOP PICK | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 87.550 | Great asset of 20+ barrels of reserves, mostly in North America and politically friendly places. Horizons oil sands project will start producing next quarter and will be up to 500,000 barrels a day over the next few years. Looking at 13% production growth next year and 7% longer-term. Projecting $30 billion cash flow over the next 3 to 4 years and only $15 billion of capital spending. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| BUY | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 77.600 | Was split into 2 companies, gas and oil. This will be very accretive. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Loblaw Companies Ltd | L-T | 29.500 | Sold her holdings when Wal-Mart announced they were coming to Canada. They enacted a restructuring program, which she feels totally destroyed the basic fundamentals of the company. Fundamentals continue to be very weak. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Petro-Canada | PCA-T | 46.100 | Probably cheapest integrated oil stock in the world. Trading at 5X next year's earnings. Bit of a management discount, a bit of concern over their strategy, Libyan assets and there isn't any meaningful production growth until 2012. You need a lot of patience with this one. Value trap. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| TOP PICK | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 187.710 | Has corrected in the last couple of months. Great asset. World's largest potash producer, which gives them an incredible amount of control in terms of supply and pricing. Expecting them to sign a $1000 a ton contract with China and if that happens, it would give them well north of $22 a share in earnings. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| BUY | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 36.900 | Expects them to continue raising dividends. Going to generate $4 billion in free cash flow in a couple of years. Wireless penetration and smart phone in Canada is much lower than in the US. Great fundamentals in cable and Internet. | 2008-08-26 | ||
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| BUY | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 133.160 | An expensive stock on an absolute basis. Relative to the monster growth rates it's been putting up, it is not expensive. You have to believe it is going to continue having those 50%-70% earnings growth years, which she thinks is still there. There are 3 big product launches coming up in the fall. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| Comment | Royal Bank | RY-T | 44.130 | With a 5-year time horizon, you are fine with any of the banks. This one has moer issues with the US with its bigger exposure. Caught in the same issues as all global financials. Credit crunch is impacting balance sheets. Probably more write-downs to come. Earnings growth is going to be pretty tough. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| BUY | Shoppers Drug Mart Corp | SC-T | 54.870 | Have had consolidation in the drugstore area. Bringing all the cosmetics to the front of the store. This is a growth stock and has a growth stock multiple. As long as it continues to deliver good earnings growth it justifies that multiple. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| TOP PICK | SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. | SNC-T | 49.940 | A truly global company. Benefiting from the infrastructure move. There is talk of $41 trillion spent globally over the next 25/30 years on infrastructure. Canada alone will have to spend at least $50 billion. Very steady earnings growth and very consistent stock price growth. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| Comment | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 41.390 | (“A” shares vs. “B” shares.) “A” shares are the voting shares. If the controlling family ever decides to sell the company, they are entitled to a 15% premium over the rest of the shareholders. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| BUY | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 41.390 | Very bullish on this company. Zinc prices are down year-to-date but given the long-term outlook for China and metals demand it will come back. Copper is still quite strong. The real kicker is the very smart acquisition of Fording Coal (FDG.UN-T). Over the next 20 years, China is going to need 3 billion tons of steel as they build out their infrastructure, which will require a lot of metallurgical coal. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| Comment | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 18.400 | Have a very disjointed strategy with Indonesia, Western Canada and the North Sea. New CEO is refocusing the company and taking on more unconventional assets, where the growth is. In a transition stage at the present. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| STRONG BUY | Oilexco Inc | OIL-X | 14.410 | Just being trashed with the junior, small international oil plays. Has tremendous growth profile. $15 operating cost, $12 finding and developing cost. In the North Sea UK, a politically stable area. Netbacks are $105 a barrel. Thanks it is a double when we get out of the current doldrums. Takeover possibility. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Yamana Gold Inc. | YRI-T | 11.220 | Junior that has emerged into an intermediate and wants to be a senior. Been making acquisitions and putting it together but still has to prove itself execution wise. OK if you own in a basket of gold stocks. Prefers Goldcorp (G-T), Agnico Eagle (AEM-T) or Barrick (ABX-T). | 2008-08-26 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | US$: It is having a rally in a bear market. Been in a downtrend for 2.5 years against the euro, Cdn$ and other currencies. Still have twin deficits and the credit crisis. Doubts the US Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates given the fragility of the financial system. Also has inflationary pressure. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Bullion: See Comments on US$. These are the same reasons you want to be long on gold. Also a seasonality factor that suggests you buy gold at the end of August for a strong end of year. Wouldn't be surprised if it tested $1000. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Q: Would you buy Telus (T-T) Bell Aliant (BA.UN-T) and Manitoba Telecom (MBT-T) for a combination of growth and income? A: Interesting question because there is no growth. Telcos don't give you both growth and income. There is yield but don't expect growth. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| Comment | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A) | CTC.A-T | 51.620 | Have downgraded their earnings and they won't have flat to negative earnings this year. Ontario economy is slowing down and this is a big chunk of their earnings. Stock is quite cheap. | 2008-08-26 | ||
| DON'T BUY | AbitibiBowater Inc. | ABH-T (Dead) | 4.610 | This company has been in such a negative spiral for many years. The news print producers have been shutting down capacity so they are starting to see a recovery in some margins. Not an exciting growth story. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| HOLD | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 28.150 | Fairly valued. It's trading of the fact that it faces competition from all sorts of angles. Hasn't executed quite as well on the wireless side as its main competitors. Prefers Telus (T-T). | 2006-03-28 | ||
| BUY | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 66.680 | On the verge of becoming an oil sands producer. Launching its $9.9 billion Horizon project. Development and construction plans are all on track. Well-managed. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| BUY | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 54.970 | Trading at a low P/E because it's basically a natural gas producer. Fairly attractive for the long-term but in the near term will be volatile. Expects to see higher gas prices by the end of the year. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | Finning Int | FTT-T | 38.190 | One of the largest dealers of Caterpillar equipment. One of the ways to take advantage of the resource boom without having the volatility. Over the next 8 years, they are going to see an extra $3 billion plus in revenues just as a result of parts and equipment business in the oil sands. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| BUY | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 60.500 | Has some fabulous resource plays. LNG is not a big issue as they can supply directly to the local markets of India and Bangladesh. Expect it will get taken out at some point. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 96.250 | (A Past Top Pick Nov 16/05. Up 24%.) Now that the lawsuit is settled, all the backlog of orders can now be filled. Next quarter should see a sizeable pickup in earnings. This market is still young and still growing. | 2006-03-28 | ||
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| HOLD | Royal Bank | RY-T | 50.110 | Had an excellent quarter. Has phenomenal ROE. The operations in Canada, particularly the retail banking, wealth management, capital markets business are all performing extremely well. Not crazy about banks at this time but a good holding. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| BUY | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 88.240 | Production growth is definitely going to look better than it did last year. Most of their expansion plans are underway. Pure oil sands play. Well-managed. This is a stock you can put in your portfolio and forget about it. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 74.400 | Likes it for both the oil sands play and its array of metals. All 3 of its basic commodities are running. Copper, coal and zinc are very strong. Generating $500 million every quarter. Has over $4 billion on the balance sheet. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| BUY | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 62.670 | Has lagged the group for the last little while. Production is not in places where people are excited about it. A global company and they do what they do very well. Extremely attractive from a valuation point of view. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| BUY | UTS Energy | UTS-T (Dead) | 6.670 | Its fortunes lie with two major entities, Teck Cominco (TEK.SV.B-T) and Petro Canada (PCA-T). Longer term, it will be taken out by one or both of these players. Has no earnings or cash flow and is a straight development play. Speculative. | 2006-03-28 | ||
| DON'T BUY | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 26.950 | Not a growth story. Facing a lot of pressure on its land line business. It has a corporate structure with some non-core assets that should be disposed of. Dividend is probably safe. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| TOP PICK | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 53.850 | 80% of the production is gas. Have a lot of upside with the oil sands. Trading below net asset value. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| TOP PICK | Falconbridge Ltd | FAL-T | 34.920 | Stock is trading pretty close to the value of the bid from Inco (N-T). The merger creates the world's largest nickel producer, a very good copper producer and there is great growth in these assets. Will get good synergies out of this. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| HOLD | Manitoba Telecom Services | MBT-T | 41.000 | This is not a growth stock. Doesn't have a wireless position. It's landlocked. Has fallen off because of all the hullabaloo about income trust conversion. Dividend is probably safe. If you need income, it's a fine holding. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| SELL | Jean Coutu Group (PJC) (A) | PJC.A-T | 12.600 | Prefers Shoppers Drugs (SC-T) and would sell this one and move it in to Shoppers. Shoppers has a much better business model. Better management also. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| BUY | Power Financial Corp | PWF-T | 32.300 | Has generated a compound return to shareholders of 20% for the last 15 years. They are doing a lot of things really well. A buy and hold stock. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| TOP PICK | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 77.030 | Thinks we are finally coming to the end of the saga on the battle with NTP over patents. The potential reward outweighs the potential risk. They have $1.8 billion on the balance sheet and $600 million in cash flow, so they can handle a large judgement. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| BUY | UTS Energy | UTS-T (Dead) | 4.420 | A pure play in the oil sands business. Has 2 partners, Petrocan (PCA-T) and Teck Cominco (TEK.SV.B-T). It will continue to increase its asset value and the stock price will continue to appreciate. This is a longer term project.There will not be any cash flow or earnings for at least 5 years. Could be a take out candidate. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| BUY | TSX Group | X-T | 36.750 | They've changed their accounting policy to basically smooth the income stream from new listings by amortizing them over a 10 year period. Finds this questionable but all the publicly traded stock exchanges in the world do it. Good quality longer term. Will be volatile for a while. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| BUY | Opti Canada Inc. | OPC-T (Dead) | 34.550 | They use a gasification process by creating gases out of the bituman, and uses this gas to create steam to get SAG (steam assisted gravity) which takes the costs down substantially. Very unique in the oil patch. | 2005-11-16 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Alcan Aluminum | AL-T (Dead) | 46.750 | Excellent company. Good price but base metals should only be used in a recession | 2000-11-30 | ||
| DON'T BUY | ATI Technologies | ATY-T (Dead) | 12.100 | Doesn't like their business model Too much competition & PC sales are slowing | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 22.300 | Long term view is excellent. Has always delivered A lot of orders Would buy at this price | 2000-11-30 | ||
| STRONG BUY | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 42.250 | A good quality core holding. Likes their high speed internet connectionAlso other positive assets | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Ballard Power Systems | BLD-T | 105.000 | Great company & likes alternative fuel concept. Wait for it to get beat up. Will take a long time to have a product | 2000-11-30 | ||
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| BUY | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 71.900 | Likes banks. Expects new government will allow mergers | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 38.500 | Likes banks. Expects new government will allow mergers | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Valeant Pharmaceuticals | VRX-T | 51.000 | 30% earnings growth make this reasonably priced | 2000-11-30 | ||
| WAIT | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 21.450 | Has had a good restructuring and getting back to their core (pilot training) Could do well if they expand | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Cogeco Cable | CCA-T | 28.950 | Expects a takeover by Rogers or Videotron. Owns as a consolidation candidate | 2000-11-30 | ||
| WAIT | Certicom | CIC-T | 25.750 | Won't produce profits for some time Some excellent technology but volatile. Will be whipped in this market | 2000-11-30 | ||
| WAIT | Celestica Inc | CLS-T | 80.800 | An excellent outlook for growth but hold off short term | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 44.900 | Likes banks. Expects new government will allow mergers | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 42.500 | An excellent company but prefers Cdn Hunter | 2000-11-30 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd | CTC-T | 17.200 | Has never liked because of management problems | 2000-11-30 | ||
| WATCH | Fairfax Financial | FFH-T | 183.900 | Never benefited from run up in market. CFO was a problem but things have improved. OK in 2/3 years | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Great West Lifeco | GWO-T | 32.650 | Likes Ins. Companies Expects new government will OK mergers | 2000-11-30 | ||
| WAIT | JDS Uniphase | JDU-T | 81.500 | Loves the company. Good management. A long term stock | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Loblaw Companies Ltd | L-T | 54.000 | At a 52 week high A good stock in a recession | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 39.850 | Likes Ins. Companies Expects new government will OK mergers | 2000-11-30 | ||
| TOP PICK | Nortel | NT-T (Dead) | 57.600 | Tremendous growth Quality management Excellent buying opportunity now | 2000-11-30 | ||
| DON'T BUY | QLT Inc | QLT-T | 67.850 | Excellent product, but will they have good sales and whats next in the product line? | 2000-11-30 | ||
| WAIT | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 24.950 | Seeing some stronger competition from Bell & wireless | 2000-11-30 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Royal Group Tech. | RYG-T | 19.250 | Has problems on cost & demand See slower revenue growth | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Royal Bank | RY-T | 45.650 | Likes banks. Expects new government will allow mergers | 2000-11-30 | ||
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| BUY | Sears Canada | SCC-T | 23.050 | Eaton's opening was well received Management is excellent and stock is cheap | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 32.750 | Likes Ins. Companies Expects new government will OK mergers | 2000-11-30 | ||
| TOP PICK | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 34.400 | Should double their production between 1999 & 2001 | 2000-11-30 | ||
| TOP PICK | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 39.650 | Likes banks. Expects new government will allow mergers | 2000-11-30 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 56.500 | A strong consolidator of online financials A little expensive Good long term | 2000-11-30 | ||
| DON'T BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 14.800 | Was a great story earlier but fuel costs and unions created problems | 2000-11-30 |
