STOCKCHASE

0.020

Markets: Chinese import is low and people are hoping for monetary easing. He calls this in the US QE 2 and a half. QE 1 and 2 did not work that well but that is what people are hoping for. This year we are going into have to get through he first quarter to know if this will be a good year in the markets. The rebound from 2008 has played out. We are seeing there are an awful lot of earnings downgrades.

2012-01-10

HOLD

0.020

Tech Stocks: BA – stock had a brilliant two years. Has been holding all the way through. Is getting a little on the expensive side. Earnings do not cover the dividend at the present time. Finding an income stock to replace it is hard.

2012-01-10

WAIT

Apple

AAPL-Q

377.410

Stock has been in very solid, wide swinging uptrend. He has a technical target of $320, which is 4X Book Value, which has been a pretty reliable point where this company has changed direction.

2011-11-17

TOP PICK

50.660

One of the most reliable golds that there is. Stocks have reached a point where they have lagged behind bullion so much that if there is another movement in bullion we are going to have a nice movement in stocks, which may well outperform gold bullion itself.

2011-11-17

Comment

Agrium

AGU-T

72.260

Feels that commodities are going to tend to do well in the long-term. Expecting commodity inflation. On a price to book value, this is a lot cheaper than Potash (POT-T).

2011-11-17

DON'T BUY

Deere & Co.

DE-N

75.020

Not bad. Has been running up against some technical resistance that it will have to get over it it's going to go any higher. Up in the higher end of its valuation range of the last 25 years in Price to Book terms. Has some long-term risks.

2011-11-17

TOP PICK

Davis + Henderson

DH-T

16.000

Earnings forecasts have been ratcheting upwards quite nicely. Strong yield of 7.6%.

2011-11-17

BUY

Husky Energy

HSE-T

24.940

In an interesting situation. Earnings forecast for 2011-2012 are not going anywhere, and if anything it is a slight drift downwards. Good news is that it has a nice yield. Very close to a very long-term low in price to book terms.

2011-11-17

Comment

Kirkland Lake Gold

KGI-T

18.420

Like all gold stocks, this company is waiting for evidence that gold can press above $1900 level.

2011-11-17

DON'T BUY

Royal Bank

RY-T

43.950

Expects they will hold their dividends. Management has said they have a lot of money but can't lend it to anyone, which means their margins are being squeezed. Earnings forecasts for 2012 have been literally falling like a stone. Would be much more interested at $36-$37.

2011-11-17

PAST TOP PICK

15.940

(A Top Pick Sept 7/10. Up 51.56%.) Still likes and would still be a Hold.

2011-11-17

Comment

0.020

Comment Markets. Doesn't look at this as a buying opportunity yet. Hasn’t had a confirmation yet from the TSX 60 that this is anything more than just a bounce off a set back. Financial stocks in particular are acting poorly. If there is no leadership from the financials, he is always suspicious. (Stay with gold.)

2011-11-17

BUY

Intact Financial

IFC-T

57.290

Earnings are soaring on this company and the forecasts for 2012 are doing quite well. Doesn't appear to have stepped on any land mines. Yield of 2.6% is not exciting. His upside target is as much as $70.

2011-11-17

PAST TOP PICK

Bank of New York Company Inc.

27.550

(A Top Pick Sept 7/10. Up 17.16%.) Still likes and would still be a Hold. This one is all about the dividend. Almost 7.5% yield.

2011-11-17

TOP PICK

CASH

0.010

(A Top Pick Sept 7/10.)

2011-11-17

DON'T BUY

Agrium

AGU-T

83.980

Giving him mixed signals on what is going to happen next. It is nervous trading. He is nervous that this stock may give him some downside.

2011-08-31

WAIT

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

4.770

Had a huge write down due to conversion to IFRS. Left the company hung up at 6 times book value. Downside target of $4.

2011-08-31

WAIT

BK-N

20.670

The problem is that it doesn’t really have much of a driver. Problems in US banks have not gone away. This one is interesting because it is huge in pension fund business – safe keeping, etc. One of the few banks where there has been steady growth in their balance sheet. You would be better off if you wait for a cheaper level ($22 or $21)

2011-08-31

HOLD

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

37.000

Gave quite a good sell signal quite close to the top but now it has met its down side target. You could let some go if you are up a lot. Nothing wrong with it. Well run company.

2011-08-31

HOLD

Canadian Oil Sands

COS-T

23.410

Fell right down to pretty good support. Was wobbling when it was up there and then finally down it went. Much improved dividend yield. It’s not a buy, but not a sell.

2011-08-31

HOLD

Encana Corp

ECA-T

24.870

To go up we need a driver of Nat Gas prices and is not necessarily in the cards. The stock is fairly cheap. It’s a good place to go long term. There is not a lot of upside in gas needed to get the stock moving. Don’t add to position now. Just sit on it.

2011-08-31

DON'T BUY

Ford Motor

F-N

11.120

Great company and great turnaround. Got up to 14 times book value. They should have done a big underwriting when their stock price was down to fortify the balance sheet. If we have a double dip they wont necessarily be able to take another hit.

2011-08-31

SELL

Fortis Inc.

FTS-T

32.660

Getting nervous about it. Almost got to price book value. It’s still not particularly cheap. Nothing wrong with the company. He sold all his position.

2011-08-31

DON'T BUY

Magna Int'l. (A)

MG-T

37.190

Has settled back to book value. It’s neither expensive nor cheap so it is a difficult stock. If we do get a double dip recession or slow down, it is hard to figure what kind of driver would push this one higher. Nothing would compel him to sell it.

2011-08-31

WAIT

Niko Resources

NKO-T

55.740

Even that oils are badly savaged, he would not be surprised if we got a rebound in oil stocks generally. But give the expectation of a weakened economy, it wouldn’t surprise him if we had some weakness in oil prices. Don’t bound in too quickly if buying or averaging down.

2011-08-31

TOP PICK

Shaw Communication (B)

SJR.B-T

22.400

Very nice valuation especially compared to Rogers. Will hang in and if markets pick up could give you a nice little gain. Defensive play.

2011-08-31

BUY

Sunlife Financial

SLF-T

26.540

$23 is a good place to acquire it, but in a market sell off it could go lower. In a couple of years you will be fine.

2011-08-31

BUY

31.380

Still trading at a premium to book value. Doesn’t know why a company would by back stock above book value. Close to its downside levels. We are finding out if market is valuing Suncor as just Suncor or as Petro Can as well. Likes it and it is cheap.

2011-08-31

TOP PICK

Transalta Corp

TA-T

22.020

Stock is cheap compared to its own long-term record. Has a nice dividend. Earnings forecasts are starting to turn back up again. There is support from analysts, markets.

2011-08-31

WAIT

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

16.370

It reminds him of CNQ a little while ago. Got a sell signal right now. Potentially a price as low as $14.

2011-08-31

HOLD

A T & T US

T-N

28.480

Likes it and is one of his US positions. Done nicely. Nice yield. Will continue to happily hold it.

2011-08-31

BUY

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

42.360

Liked it for a while. A core stock in his portfolio for some time. It had a set back, fell to support. Would be awfully nice to have keystone go through but if not, it’s ok.

2011-08-31

BUY

Yellow Media Inc

YLO-T

0.810

Blind-sided in every possible direction. Stock is now dirt cheap, nice yield and it is quite beaten up. Huge discount to book. Analysts think they will earn the yield 2 or 3 times over. He would average down. Has a chance to rebound.

2011-08-31

PAST TOP PICK

15.500

(Top Pick Sep 7/10, Up 44%) Was trading at book value, which is very, very cheap for a gold company. Also he likes gold stocks.

2011-08-31

TOP PICK

15.500

Likes being exposed to gold sector. Still one of the cheaper of the gold stocks. Lots of upside potential. If there is QE3, still has lots of room.

2011-08-31

N/A

Precision Castparts Corp.

0.020

Market: He is somewhat bearish on the economy, on the economic outlook. Stock market had risen so high that it was discounting anything that was particularly good that could happen. You had to have an awful lot of economic good news. Ben is almost at a loss for words. QE2 had not produced the results he had hoped for. There is a lot of dissent in congress and in the fed. The only way QE3 could get underway is if the stock market takes another tumble. The problem is that the US has an insolvent balance sheet and need to clean it up. Dow transport had been leading the market all the way up. It reached a valuation level it had not seen in 40 years. It has given him a bear market signal. Thinks it is one of the leading indicators of where the markets are going to go. He put is clients in 30-35% cash. Lots of income stocks.

2011-08-31

SELL

Chorus Aviation Inc

CHR.B-T

4.370

Doesn’t have much in terms of drivers and is expensive on a price book basis.

2011-08-31

HOLD

PCP-N

163.850

Has done beautifully. Lots of fair market value potential. If ti gets to $180-$185 mark that would be everything that you will see this time around.

2011-08-31

PAST TOP PICK

27.250

(Top Pick Sep 7/10, Up 14.75 Total Return) You want some nice yield protection on the downside. Not the hottest company in the world, but it is well run, cheap and nice yield.

2011-08-31

HOLD

Visa Inc.

V-N

87.880

Has been doing quite well. It’s hard to fight success. It is a business that is swamped with product. You pay your money and take your chances.

2011-08-31

TOP PICK

CASH

0.010

(Top Pick Sep 7/10) Not unhappy having cash at the present time. Profile for next two years will be similar to Japan over last few years. Long down trend with enormous trading moves.

2011-08-31

TOP PICK

Manitoba Telecom Services

45.460

You’ve got to have a core holding of gold stocks in your portfolio. The best managed and best run of the gold stocks. Americans are going to panic about the forthcoming elections.

2011-07-12

DON'T BUY

General Electric

GE-N

18.380

Has very little upside potential. Would like to see the company broken up into its different parts, which would be better apart than together.

2011-07-12

PARTIAL SELL

Honeywell International

HON-N

57.280

When it gets up to about 4X Book, where it is now, that tends to be it.

2011-07-12

BUY

MBT-T

31.900

Analysts’ earnings forecasts have now leveled off and are starting to turn back up again. Excellent balance sheet.

2011-07-12

BUY

Microsoft

MSFT-Q

26.540

Down at a very low valuation level compared to its long history. His Fair Market Value is far ahead of the current price. Fairly low risk.

2011-07-12

Comment

RioCan Real Estate Investment

REI.UN-T

26.350

One of best managed REITs and heavily into the commercial area. Stock has had a nice run, but from his point of view it is at the high end of his Fair Market Value range. Doesn't see a lot of upside for this.

2011-07-12

BUY

Research In Motion

RIM-T

27.520

Fallen to about 1.5X Book Value. ROE, even with severely cut back earnings, is still better than 20%, so it is getting fairly cheap. The real concern is the long term survivability against its competition. Now a trading stock, Not a Buy and Hold.

2011-07-12

SELL

Royal Bank

RY-T

53.500

At its peak was at the valuation high that it has been at for the last 60 years. When this happens with companies, he is inclined to Sell and let them go.

2011-07-12

PAST TOP SHORT

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

39.580

(A Top Short May 20/10. Down 14%.) Would still Short.

2011-07-12

TOP PICK

Shaw Communication (B)

SJR.B-T

22.030

Has got about the best dividend of the 3. Very stable in about the Price to Book of about 2.5 times. Fairy well positioned in the market. Fair market value and earnings trends are good.

2011-07-12

BUY

Alimentation Couche-Tard (B)

37.980

Pretty much at the low end of its valuation range for his calculations. Nice upside potential.

2011-07-12

Comment

Sino-Forest Corp

TRE-T

4.280

For years, the auditors have been saying the balance sheet is fine. If there is any validity to their balanced sheet and their current cash position, the upside could be quite exciting. Will be a gamble whichever way you go.

2011-07-12

TOP PICK

Yellow Media Inc

YLO-T

2.370

Has been beaten up by the analysts. There will come a time when people shut up about it and when that happens, the stock will take off.

2011-07-12

Comment

ATD.B-T

29.850

Stock is fairly cheap from his Fair Market Value perspective. Trading at a bout 2.5X BV and has been much higher in the past. Seems hard for it to get any traction. Needs a strong market and then it will go.

2011-07-12

PAST TOP PICK

12.450

(A Top Pick May 20/10. Up 13.07%.) Still likes.

2011-07-12

PAST TOP PICK

28.750

(A Top Pick May 20/10. Up 23.48%.) Still likes.

2011-07-12

TOP PICK

51.250

(A Top Pick Jan 11/10. Up 20.65 %.) Long term, whether the US backs off from its highly inflationary stance or not, they are going to be back to it. US economy is in such desperate straits, that going into the 2012 election the Fed had better be hyping or otherwise, because Obama and everybody in in congress will be dead.

2011-04-15

TOP PICK

Bristol Myers Squibb

BMY-N

27.880

Good yield, but also selling close to its absolute low since 1982. In the meantime everything is happily bubbling along for the company. Excellent upside potential. Partially defensive but also partly aggressive.

2011-04-15

DON'T BUY

Valeant Pharmaceuticals

VRX-T

51.030

Getting very close to 4X book value. At its Fair Market Value.

2011-04-15

DON'T BUY

General Electric

GE-N

20.040

Has hit its target and has run out of fair market value upside. Earnings have been very tepid. However as an interesting take on the company, it is worth more dead than alive. If he were running it, he would pull it apart and sell all the pieces.

2011-04-15

DON'T BUY

Magna Int'l. (A)

MG-T

43.910

Had a disappointment which immediately cratered the stock. Has not been able to get its feet under it yet to get going. Auto sales, particularly in the US are no longer growing strongly. Auto stocks need to pull back to a safe level.

2011-04-15

DON'T BUY

Research In Motion

RIM-T

51.160

Really nervous about this one. Apple (AAPL-Q) has been eating their lunch in the phone business and it’s very clear that their Playbook is not being well received. Market is increasingly leery of the company. ROE is still excellent. His target is $45.

2011-04-15

DON'T BUY

42.080

(A Top Pick Jan 11/10. Up 10.7 %.) Little concerned about markets until after possibly May-June when we find out what the Fed is going to do regarding quantitative easing. If they don’t, he would prefer to be defensive.

2011-04-15

WAIT

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

49.830

His target is $5 lower, which he would consider a good technical entry point but looking into 2012, it depends on the US economy.

2011-04-15

TOP PICK

Yellow Media Inc

YLO-T

4.890

Analysts are forecasting that it will cover its dividend for the next couple of years. 13% plus yield. His target would be $6-$6.25.

2011-04-15

PAST TOP PICK

iUnits S&P Financial

XFN-T

24.480

(A Top Short Jan 11/10. Down 17.63 %.) This was a losing strategy. It was right up against one of his technical breakpoints at the time.

2011-04-15

Comment

0.020

S&P 500. US economy, for all its vaunted recovery, is kind of hanging on by its fingernails and heavily reliant on quantitative easing stimulus. We are now coming to the end of the 2nd one and the market is hoping against hope that it will be renewed and there will be a QE3 but gold market is telling you no as it is terrified of inflation, even hyper inflation. Having done 2 of them, the Fed has to sit back a little bit and let the economy prove or not that this is the case. We are 85%-86% dependent on the US.

2011-04-15

Comment

0.020

Rising interest rates and inflation. If we get QE3 (quantitative easing), you had better look out. Inflation in the US is already vicious and rampant and sooner or later it will affect interest rates badly. If they don’t pursue QE3, it’s a different story. If they back off, we’ll probably not get rising interest rates and it may create a slowing US economy. There is a key meeting at the end of April, which will reveal a lot about their intentions.

2011-04-15

Comment

0.020

Gold. Gold price has moved and moved but the stocks have lagged. Historically gold stocks have snapped catching up to the price of gold. Gold stocks have been getting cheaper and cheaper. If you own, stay with them. (See Top Picks.)

2011-04-15

DON'T BUY

Daylight Energy Ltd

DAY-T (Dead)

10.620

Scares him a little. Balance sheet numbers are kind of falling away. Stock has been doing well in the market but fundamentals underneath it do not justify it.

2011-04-15

HOLD

26.870

Likes this stock. Not going to take off and go anywhere. Gives nice income. Fairly defensive.

2011-04-15

TOP PICK

Manitoba Telecom Services

47.390

(A Top Pick Jan 11/10. Up 8.06%.) You have to have a gold component in your portfolio. Long term outlook for the US$ is miserable and Bernanke is doing nothing about it.

2011-01-28

DON'T BUY

Bank of America

BAC-N

13.600

As a rule he doesn’t particularly like the US banks. US is not out of trouble. Mortgage problems continue to haunt it. Pickup in their economy is very tepid.

2011-01-28

DON'T BUY

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

57.840

On a technical call, he is wary of both Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) and Royal (RY-T), the Royal in particular.

2011-01-28

TOP PICK

Bristol Myers Squibb

BMY-N

25.790

Likes the US health care pharmaceuticals in general. This one has a nice yield. Selling at a low valuation.

2011-01-28

HOLD

Bank of Nova Scotia

BNS-T

56.020

Relative to its own history is very expensive but has some room to go before it gets to its long term (60 year) peak.

2011-01-28

HOLD

General Electric

GE-N

20.200

Has had a pretty nice recovery. Has a little room to move at this juncture. Sees a near term technical peak at about $20. Doesn’t have enough Fair Market Value oomph behind it to get a good deal further than that.

2011-01-28

TOP PICK

MBT-T

30.930

Analysts earnings estimates kept going down but then just recently the analysts suddenly became more positive. Earnings forecasts are changing. On a long term perspective, stock is cheap and has decent upside potential. 6% yield.

2011-01-28

Comment

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

17.350

A warrant on the stock market. Has been moving heaven and earth to get over the annuity product risk. Have sterilized about 60% but it still leaves 40% so stock and earnings forecasts rip up and down with the stock. Probably twice as volatile as the market itself. Could give you 10%-15% more but bear in mind what you are holding.

2011-01-28

DON'T BUY

Royal Bank

RY-T

53.340

On a technical call, he is wary of both Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) and Royal (RY-T), the Royal in particular. This one hit a 62 year valuation high last year. Not particularly cheap.

2011-01-28

PAST TOP PICK

40.040

(A Top Pick Jan 11/10. Up 1.12%.)

2011-01-28

PAST TOP SHORT

iUnits S&P Financial

XFN-T

23.080

(A Top Short Jan 11/10. Up 10.72%.) S&P Financial ETF.

2011-01-28

Comment

0.020

Quantitative easing is driving the market. If that stops then that is sort of the end. GDP ratio to Debt is at .289. Currently we are at $3.50 of debt for every $1 of GDP, which is where productivity of debt falls to zero. Unless US continues to borrow a tremendous amount of money, their economy will tend to retreat.

2011-01-28

Comment