STOCKCHASE

0.020

US$? In times of crisis, people tend to turn to the US$. If the market continues going down, you can expect that the US$ will keep on going up.

2010-05-20

DON'T BUY

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

4.870

Despite all the good news the company keeps issuing, the fair market value and earnings forecasts keep slipping. Trading at a very critical juncture of $5-$5.50 and if it goes through there, there could be another 25% on the downside.

2010-05-20

DON'T BUY

Jazz Air Income Fund

JAZ.UN-T

4.300

Doesn't like airlines in general. Seem to be money pits. This one has nothing but goodwill in the balance sheet.

2010-05-20

Comment

0.020

Market. He has moved his clients to something like 40%-50% cash. Stocks are high income and defensive. Also has a hedge on the market of about 10% through the S&P/TSX 60 Bear+ ETF (HXD-T).

2010-05-20

DON'T BUY

16.840

If he could pick a stock at the bottom of the market, this would probably be the one because it remains a levered play on the stock market. Has enormous exposure to index linked insurance annuities. If market craters you can look to this one getting really hit but when the market turns it should outperform.

2010-05-20

Comment

0.020

Greece affecting the US economy? Has already reached the US economy but hasn't erupted yet. A number of the US states are already in a debt crisis led by California.

2010-05-20

Comment

0.020

Gold. Gold and the US$ tend to go in opposite directions.

2010-05-20

DON'T BUY

TSX Group

X-T

27.110

Have its problems, not least of which are the banks that are muscling in and handling trades on their own. This also goes up and down with the stock market. Not particularly cheap.

2010-05-20

Comment

Manitoba Telecom Services

43.830

Has gone with this one for quite a while and it has worked out quite nicely. If you are looking for a smaller Stock that was cheap, he would look to Yamana (YRI-T), which sells at 1.2X Book. (See Top Picks.)

2010-05-20

Comment

MBT-T

27.800

Earnings are barely covering dividends. If earnings trend continues to sink, it throws dividends into question. Upside is the strong balance sheet which could maintain the dividend. Board would have to deal with this and he doesn't know which way they would go.

2010-05-20

TOP PICK

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

43.000

Concerns on US recovery are deep and you should have some gold for protection. If $40 level does not hold out for the stock, look out as it could deliver a 30% loss..

2010-01-11

TOP PICK

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

38.580

The merger with Petrocan has created a beautiful well-rounded company. This is about as cheap as this company gets historically.

2010-01-11

TOP SHORT

iUnits S&P Financial

XFN-T

21.820

S&P Financial ETF. Because the index has moved so far and has such poor Fair Market Value, kind of correction is going to give 25%-35% downside in the banking sector.

2010-01-11

PAST TOP PICK

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

53.480

(A Top Pick Jan 9/09. Up 70%.) Getting to the point where he would be a seller and not a buyer.

2010-01-11

PAST TOP PICK

Petro-Canada

PCA-T

45.500

(A Top Pick Jan 9/09. Up 65.9%.) Merged with Suncor (SU-T).

2010-01-11

PAST TOP PICK

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

27.730

(A Top Pick Jan 9/09. Up 21.25%.) Would buy on weakness. Expect telcos will have some pressure from new wireless companies.

2010-01-11

BUY

FNX Mining Company

FNX-T(Dead)

13.450

Stock has moved a long ways, but his FMV of the mines indicates the mining sector is the most attractive for and upside potential. Well diversified.

2010-01-11

DON'T BUY

Calloway REIT

CWT.UN-T

19.730

P/E is sky high. His FMV calculation is substantially below current price. Trading at 89X forward earnings and would be happier with 15X. 7.8% yield.

2010-01-11

DON'T BUY

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

44.750

Doesn't think it ever met its downside target. He has a Sell-out on the stock. Has been rising recently but is up against resistance.

2010-01-11

BUY

Thompson Creek Metals

TCM-T

14.500

Future outlook for molybdenum will be directly linked to the outlook for steel. Expecting North American recovery to be flat and some of these stocks are running ahead of themselves. However, his FMV calculation for this company is good and it looks like it could give you some more.

2010-01-11

PARTIAL BUY

Sino-Forest Corp

TRE-T

20.490

Good earnings, P/E and margins. FMV continues to rise. Wouldn't buy your whole position at one time. May be opportunities to get it cheaper.

2010-01-11

BUY on WEAKNESS

CM-T

66.570

Would prefer it closer to $60-$61. This is probably the one Canadian bank with the greatest upside potential.

2010-01-11

DON'T BUY

Bank of America

BAC-N

16.930

Doesn't like getting into the US banks. Have already had a fair recovery from their extreme lows and there are still problems in the US financial pipeline.

2010-01-11

DON'T BUY

Research In Motion

RIM-T

66.670

Gives him the heebie-jeebies. Stock looks like it wants to go lower from the point of view of competition. Concerned about their intention to use up to $1.3 billion of their $1.6 billion cash to buy back stock. Stock is 5X BV, which means an instant rate of return of minus 80%. This will trash the balance sheet.

2010-01-11

Comment

Agrium

AGU-T

71.540

Looking like it is on the verge of breaking out over a resistance point, which may give another 20% on the upside. If it goes up a bit and can't hold, it could set back as much as 30%. In sharp contrast to Potash (POT-T), which is very high and where the FMV continues to fall. This could also affect the stock.

2010-01-11

Comment

0.020

Platinum has a big industrial application so depends on how strong the economy is going to be. In a weak market it will get hit.

2010-01-11

DON'T BUY

Couer D'Alene Mines Corp.

20.680

Because of his market outlook, would still not consider this as an entry point. Would prefer it down and they $14-$15 range. Some decent, but not great FMV. Any weakness in the market and this company will tend to go with it.

2010-01-11

DON'T BUY

Penn West Energy Trust

PWT.UN-T

19.340

Its projected earnings and FMV fall far, far short of the current price. Balance sheet is kind of slipping away. Good management and good land spread. 9.3% yield.

2010-01-11

PARTIAL SELL

CDM-T

20.360

Whether silver or gold, it is a straight play on the stock market. If you are bullish it is a Buy but if you are concerned, be careful. If you own, consider taking something off the table.

2010-01-11

HOLD

Enbridge

ENB-T

47.000

Getting a little on the pricey side. Sees another $3-$4 upside and it will then be trading at a Price to Book which is about its absolute peak and you usually get a good selloff from this. If you own, continue to hold for a little bit.

2010-01-11

BUY

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

35.150

Trades at about 1.5X Book. 4.3% yield.

2010-01-11

HOLD

General Electric

GE-N

16.760

Still has some of that tar on it from the bailout stuff last year so having trouble getting going. Would also be concerned about any setback in the market.

2010-01-11

BUY

Schlumberger Ltd.

SLB-N

70.650

His FMV calculation is well over $100. Technically it has just broken out and pulled back to a nice support level of around $60-$61 so it could go on. If the $60-$61 doesn't hold, Sell.

2010-01-11

BUY

Costco Wholesale

COST-Q

59.350

Looks okay. Has some decent potential. In the part of the economy that is going to benefit from lousy consumer sales.

2010-01-11

SELL

Precision Drilling

PD-T

9.100

(Market Call Minute.) Very poor potential. No income because they cut their pay out.

2010-01-11

HOLD

Inter Pipeline Fund

IPL.UN-T

11.070

(Market Call Minute.) Selling at about 2X Book.

2010-01-11

DON'T BUY

Ford Motor

F-N

12.110

(Market Call Minute.) Not a good deal of upside potential to drive it as of yet but looking a little better.

2010-01-11

TOP PICK

CASH

0.000

(A Top Pick Oct 2/08. N/A.) Suggests 30%-50% for a portfolio and if the markets do pop another 10%-12% in the US, he would be even higher as the correction will be quite severe.

2009-10-26

TOP PICK

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

25.330

The long-term market low has carried it down to book value. Very defensive. 6.4% dividend.

2009-10-26

TOP SHORT

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

43.380

Stock hasn't gone anywhere in the past year. When this happens to a stock, it is either building strength or it never got to where it wanted to go in the first place on the downside. Expects it to go 20% lower to around $36-$37 with a slim outside chance it could be worse on the downside.

2009-10-26

PAST TOP PICK

Manitoba Telecom Services

MBT-T

32.220

(A Top Pick Oct 2/08. Down 15%.) Dividend is quite poorly covered and the market got quite nervous about it. Getting down to an interesting level.

2009-10-26

PAST TOP PICK

38.600

(A Top Pick Oct 2/08. Up 17.6%.)

2009-10-26

DON'T BUY

Rogers Communcations (B)

RCI.B-T

28.900

The stock has given a Sell signal. 4% dividend.

2009-10-26

DON'T BUY

Enbridge

ENB-T

41.790

Up against some pretty strong technical resistance. Had given a Sell signal. He would be cautious.

2009-10-26

WEAK BUY

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

33.070

Has come down to quite a low valuation level and is oozing its way back up again. 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average, which is a very bullish sign. He sees support at $32. 4.6% yield.

2009-10-26

DON'T BUY

Crescent Point Energy Corp

21.500

This is a leveraged call on the stock market. If you are bullish on the stock market, you can stick with this one. If you are concerned, as he is, then you shouldn't go into this. Just a little bit shy of its Fair Market Value.

2009-10-26

BUY on WEAKNESS

CPG-T

37.780

You are too late for this one. Had quite a run and in the process of doing so has overtaken its Fair Market Value. 7.6% yield. Would consider it at around $28.

2009-10-26

Comment

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

51.760

Getting quite close to his target of $58-$59. At that point he would be looking for a setback. Historically, when the banks have had a move of this size that they had this year, the setback has been quite substantial at 30%+.

2009-10-26

Comment

National Bank of Canada

NA-T

58.040

This is about as high as it gets historically. Has only been above this peak once before. Expects a fair correction as he does with all the banks.

2009-10-26

DON'T BUY

Telus Corp

T-T

32.850

This stock has quite a decent dividend at 5.75% but the new wireless competition threatens to damage the earnings outlook. Concerned about all of the wireless stocks. (See Top Picks.)

2009-10-26

SELL

Domtar Corp.

UFS-T

42.970

The forestry group has really struggled. Ultimately all the marginal mills will close down and you'll be left with the major ones blossoming. If you own, consider taking profits and building up your cash position.

2009-10-26

SELL

American International Group

AIG-N

36.250

One of the US companies that has been most savaged by all of the funny financial instruments. Because of this they have been selling off bits and pieces and the probability of ever getting back up to $54 is practically nil.

2009-10-26

Comment

HBP S&P/TSX 60 Bear+ E.T.F.

HXD-T

13.880

S&P/TSX 60 Bear+ E.T.F. This is a “double” levered play and there is erosion to the initial value. If your timing is good you can do very well and this is the secret of this type of ETF. If there were another 10%-12% in the market, he would be into this one.

2009-10-26

DON'T BUY

Verizon Communications

VZ-N

28.640

Suffered quite a bit in their earnings forecasts. Flattened out a little bit but are now oozing down again. Could see it going down to $26.

2009-10-26

BUY

Hudbay Minerals Inc.

HBM-T

14.400

Commodity prices have been moving up and Fair Market Value on mining stocks have been shooting up and pulling the stock prices up behind them. His FMV is calculated at $28 and he could see the stock getting to $16-$17 very easily.

2009-10-26

BUY

CitiGroup

C-N

4.270

Like buying a warrant under US banking system. At this price, you could put some mad money in. US government has set the table for US banks and it couldn't be better. The interest they are paying is practically zero so they are getting big spreads and earning lots of money. A good gamble.

2009-10-26

HOLD

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

34.060

(Market Call Minute.) Has had a big move in the balance sheet has a lot of goodwill on it, which worries him. FMV is rising like crazy and pulling the stock behind it so you could hold a bit longer.

2009-10-26

SELL

Canadian Oil Sands Trust

COS.UN-T

30.500

(Market Call Minute.) Pretty expensive and doesn't have much of a yield.

2009-10-26

HOLD

Inmet Mining

IMN-T

62.900

(Market Call Minute.) Fair market value is being sucked up with a high commodity prices.

2009-10-26

SELL

Daylight Resources Trust

DAY-T

9.060

(Market Call Minute.) Has a decent yield of 10.6% but is ahead of its FMV. Doesn't like these kind of stocks

2009-10-26

BUY

Microsoft

MSFT-Q

28.680

(Market Call Minute.) Looks like it could go higher. Windows7 looks like an interesting product.

2009-10-26

TOP PICK

HBP S&P/TSX 60 Bear+ E.T.F.

37.290

(A Top Pick Aug 29/08. Up 2.76%.) Possibly the one gold company that is really run as a business. Has decent upside potential.

2009-08-13

TOP PICK

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

26.150

Nice dividend yield. Not very far away from its BV and has nice Fair Market Value, everything he looks for in a nice defensive play.

2009-08-13

PAST TOP PICK

Bell Aliant

BA.UN-T

26.680

(A Top Pick Aug 29/08. Up 7.27%.) Good company and relatively cheap. Still a Buy.

2009-08-13

PAST TOP PICK

HXD-T

15.020

(A Top Pick Aug 29/08. Down 17.8%.) Beta Pro TSX60 Bear + ETF. After he recommended this, there was a stunning decline in the market and this went up more than 50%. Given his outlook on the market currently, he would be inclined to be heading back into this.

2009-08-13

Comment

22.500

Essentially a levered way to play the stock market. Still have considerable problems due to their variable life policies and there are substantial liabilities against them if the market were to set back substantially. Consider reducing your holdings.

2009-08-13

Comment

Sunlife Financial

SLF-T

32.200

Pretty much in the same situation as Manulife (MFC-T) and tend to trade pretty closely together. Both can be considered as trading stocks but in the current market be wary of them.

2009-08-13

Comment

EnerVest Diversified Income Trust

0.020

Market. Recent report indicates corporate insiders have been selling personal shares at a greater pace than any time since the bull market of 2007. Probably on to something and are going by their expectations of the market rather than the bullish outlook of the street analysts. Look to something with minimum downside risks such as utilities.

2009-08-13

TOP SHORT

Power Share QQQQ ETF

QQQQ-Q

40.090

Ed. BNN interviewer referred to this as a Short but the screen showed it as a Top Pick. Phoned Ross Healy for clarification but haven't heard back. My interpretation is that if the NASDAQ 100 reaches 1750, then you should Short this. Sorry I couldn't be more clear. Bill

2009-08-13

SELL

Agrium

AGU-T

53.010

Wouldn't be surprised if this pulls back into the low $40’s. This stock is up against some pretty stiff resistance. Fundamentally, the industry is facing potentially substantially lower fertilizer prices.

2009-08-13

DON'T BUY

EIT.UN-T

11.320

He is quite indifferent to this one currently. Looks fairly extended from his point of view. Also, in another year or so, income trusts will have to convert and there could be some concerted selling when they cut distributions.

2009-08-13

SELL

Canadian Oil Sands Trust

COS.UN-T

27.650

Sell this and buy Crescent Point Energy (CPG-T)? Canadian Oil Sands has recovered as far as he thought it would. Not a bad switch. (ED. Not sure he is enamoured with Crescent Point either.)

2009-08-13

Comment

Fairfax Financial

FFH-T

362.000

It is going to be tough for them to follow through on their staggering coup last year in the derivatives market. Historically speaking, it is not priced at its maximum but is well up.

2009-08-13

DON'T BUY

Power Financial Corp

PWF-T

29.090

Has had a pretty spectacular recovery and not sure there is a lot left in Fair Market Value.

2009-08-13

HOLD

Viterra Inc

VT-T

9.010

Has a decent and improved balance sheet and the stock is selling at a very modest discount to its Book Value. Fair Market Value is pretty high at $20 if you can accept the street estimates on the stock. Maximum downside risk might be to about $7. Has the earnings and the FMV to drive it higher.

2009-08-13

Comment

Manitoba Telecom Services

0.020

US$. Very few countries have an interest in the dollar pounded. Global holdings of US debt instruments are very large and the US is so important. Expects the Cdn$ to edge higher while the US$ edges lower but doesn't think there is going to be anything spectacular.

2009-08-13

Comment

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

51.330

Potentially bank stocks look like they want to work a bit higher, maybe 15%-18%. This one might carry as high as $60. Have to be careful because over the past 30 years of trading in bank stocks this has been the biggest, fastest recovery of them and when they start to fall they can have nasty corrections.

2009-08-13

BUY on WEAKNESS

Toronto Dominion

TD-T

63.300

Could fairly easily go as high as $70. If the markets set back as he expects, all of the banks are going to get hit. Unless you want to pop in and pop out (trade) the stock he would wait.

2009-08-13

HOLD

MBT-T

32.750

Thinks this one will prove to be relatively defensive in any kind of a setback. Their earnings and dividends are pretty close together and there are concerns dividends may be chopped but he doesn't think so. Terrific balance sheet.

2009-08-13

Comment

Rogers Communcations (B)

RCI.B-T

30.530

Has some Fair Market Value and a modest yield. Doesn't look too bad. Given how indifferently the stock has reacted overall since the market bottom, it looks to him like it wants to go lower however, if the market keeps on going, you could get a little bounce in the short term.

2009-08-13

DON'T BUY

CitiGroup

C-N

4.060

Valuation condition tells him that the market is very sceptical about their balance sheet. Looking at some of the potential emerging problems still in the US financials he feels very much the same way. No Fair Market Value so strictly a speculation.

2009-08-13

Comment

Kinross Gold

K-T

21.480

Some decent Fair Market Value potential. Gold group appears to be waiting for a big move in bullion to $2000 an ounce that the gold bulls are talking about. He doesn't believe in this but rather it will be the industrial application that affects the price of gold. (See Top Picks.)

2009-08-13

DON'T BUY

Ivanhoe Mines

IVN-T

9.710

Doesn't particularly like resource companies that are in basically political hostile environments. Price to Book Value is very high. Pure roll of the dice.

2009-08-13

DON'T BUY

Enerplus Resources Fund

ERF.UN-T

23.480

When it converts to a corporation, it will probably be one of those companies where there may be a savage slashing of the income payout. Fair Market Value right now is actually lower than the price of the trust itself.

2009-08-13

DON'T BUY

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

4.330

(Market Call Minute.) Just recently met his upside target of $4.50. Now facing quite a bit of overhead resistance.

2009-08-13

DON'T BUY

Harvest Energy Trust

HTE.UN-T

6.700

(Market Call Minute.) Some potential for them but it is getting late in the day for energy trusts and he is nervous about their payouts.

2009-08-13

DON'T BUY

Deere & Co.

DE-N

45.630

(Market Call Minute.) Looking at the analysts’ earnings forecast (his Fair Market Value) it has been plunging. FMV is about $52.

2009-08-13

Comment

Iamgold Corp

IMG-T

13.220

(Market Call Minute.) Some decent Fair Market Value potential. Gold group appears to be waiting for a big move in bullion to $2000 an ounce that the gold bulls are talking about. He doesn't believe in this but rather it will be the industrial application that affects the price of gold. (See Top Picks.)

2009-08-13

Comment

Research In Motion

RIM-T

82.630

From a FMV point of view it still has a lot of upside potential. Could see the stock going to $100.

2009-05-21

SELL

Dow Chemical

DOW-N

17.070

Had a beautiful run but has outrun its FMV numbers. Trading at book value, which historically would be cheap but has outrun itself and he would take money off the table and let it settle before stepping back in. Earnings forecasts do not support the current price.

2009-05-21

Comment

0.020

S&P 500: He is treating this rally as nothing but a rally. Even the Fed is pointing out that the economic outlook is pretty bleak for the next year or so. That indicates a lot of misplaced confidence in the market.

2009-05-21

SELL

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

15.140

Percentage wise has had a really nice bounce off its lows from death’s doors. Thinks it is out running its FMV and needs to have things like coal come through. He is taking money off the table.

2009-05-21

HOLD

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

SNC-T

37.960

Came off some nice support at about twice its book value. Speed of the infrastructure is another problem. Looking at it historically, it is not cheap anymore.

2009-05-21

PARTIAL SELL