STOCKCHASE

26.140

(A Top Pick Dec 20/07. Down 29%.) One of the few companies that actually understands the business of gold mining. Always had a sensible approach to managing their gold portfolio. Very cheap at book value.

2008-11-17

TOP PICK

CASH

0.000

If you are not sitting on a third or half cash, you are taking some pretty significant risks. His clients are much closer to 75%. Would like to see market stabilization with an end to the horrendous 10% days. Would also like a better clue that they US administration has any idea of what to do. So far, he sees nothing.

2008-11-17

TOP PICK

Biovail Corp.

BVF-T

10.770

Terrific yield and an outstandingly good balance sheet. As a medical process that works, a slow release kind of stuff. Stock is very cheap. Kind of stock where only good things can happen. Thinks the yield is safe.

2008-11-17

PAST TOP PICK

Petro-Canada

PCA-T

23.950

(A Top Pick Dec 20/07. Down 49%.) A real surprise to him. Was the cheapest oil and he thought an integrated would have more support. Fort Hills is going to be put on the shelf for a while. Would be inclined to nibble away at this price.

2008-11-17

PAST TOP PICK

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

44.820

(A Top Pick Dec 20/07. Down 14%.) Sold his holdings. Would let this go down a bit further before Buying.

2008-11-17

Comment

0.020

Buy & Hold Strategy: Last 6 months brought about a change in valuation parameters. Thinks we will go back to an environment of a Rotation of Values. If this happens, Buy & Hold will not work anymore and will have profound implications for how people view the stock market. You will trade based on PE, Price to Book, etc. ratios. Dividends will be very important.

2008-11-17

Comment

HBP NYMEX Oil Bull + E.T.F.

0.020

Gold: Bullion and gold stocks have faltered with the strength of the US$. Expect this will be ephemeral as it is artificial.

2008-11-17

Comment

HOU-T

5.360

Oil is getting cheap and the price has to be set at the cost for producing it. Given the long-term shortage of energy and the emergence of the far east, oil will bounce back when we get a recovery. Probably not a bad bet if you have a lot of patience.

2008-11-17

Comment

Agrium

AGU-T

38.100

Has not only come back down again to its long-term low but actually went 20% below. On a historical valuation perspective, it is dirt-cheap. Long-term food shortage is going to help. Short term, he wouldn't be surprised if the stock rallied with the rest of the market. If you Buy and don't look at the price for the next 3 years, you'll probably be happy.

2008-11-17

Comment

0.020

US$: there are some good technical reasons why it has been strong such as repatriation of funds. From a global perspective, other countries are terrified that the US will slip into a recession and kill them all. Until the rest of the world thinks in terms of expanding their economies, it is not going to happen. Not confident the dollar will be strong for much longer.

2008-11-17

Comment

0.020

Economy: There is $600 trillion in derivatives, which is $10 in revenues for every $1 of global GDP. There has to be a lot of coming down because that mountain of derivatives is what really is supporting the mountain of debt. This is one of the reasons he is not very bullish on the banking sector.

2008-11-17

DON'T BUY

Royal Bank

RY-T

43.360

Last bank to start going down. Relative to the rest of the banks, it is quite expensive. Until this one has its own setback in the market, Canadian banks overall will not be a Buy.

2008-11-17

Comment

0.020

Canadian Banks: Had a rolling correction with Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) and CIBC (CM-T) leading the way down and the others have been following. You could probably look at these 2, which have good yields. Much closer to the bottom than the others.

2008-11-17

BUY

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

21.060

Held on very strong but eventually dropped like a stone. It is finally getting down to a level that even if things got worse, the stock will come back and you will do well and have collected a decent dividend on the way through.

2008-11-17

Comment

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

23.280

Trading at about 1.5 X book value, which is very cheap. Longer-term, oil prices have to be at this level or higher.

2008-11-17

BUY

Caterpillar

CAT-N

35.700

Longer-term, if there is going to be a good/healthy recovery in the US, there has to be infrastructure spending. Companies like this will be the beneficiaries. Very attractive, but it could drop further in a bearish market. In the meantime, you get 4.6% yield. As long as you don't look at it every month, you might be quite happy.

2008-11-17

BUY

Canadian Pacific Rail

CP-T

40.470

Canadian Pacific (CP-T) is pretty close to its book value and Canadian National (CNR-R) is at about 2 X book value. He likes to Buy companies close or below their book value.

2008-11-17

Comment

IBM

IBM-N

77.480

His FMV is calculated at about $250 so current price is cheap. 20% plus profit. $10 billion cash on hand and additional 10 billion cash line of credit. Has shifted into the service sector of computers, which tends to be much more stable. 4 X book value is fairly cheap.

2008-11-17

Comment

Transalta Corp

TA-T

23.750

Getting back to reasonable value but not dirt-cheap for a utility. At a level that you don't have to worry about it quite so much anymore. 4.5% yield.

2008-11-17

BUY

Sunlife Financial

SLF-T

23.650

Thinks they will maintain their dividend. Historically it is getting to be about as cheap as it has been in a very long time. Pretty decent dividend.

2008-11-17

BUY

General Motors Corporation

0.020

(Market Called Minute.) Bullion. Because of technical reasons, the US$ will fall back.

2008-11-17

DON'T BUY

Teck Cominco Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

6.640

(Market Called Minute.) They have trashed their balance sheet with their purchase of Fording Coal.

2008-11-17

Comment

GM-N

3.180

(Market Called Minute.) Thinks the best exit strategy for this company is to do Chapter 11 and get rid of all their legacy costs.

2008-11-17

DON'T BUY

Bank of America

BAC-N

15.030

(Market Called Minute.) Getting down to a level where you would think it was pretty good. Balance sheets of US banks still give him the heebie-jeebies. There is a possibility of a dividend cut.

2008-11-17

Comment

0.020

Short-Term Market: Absolutely stunning volatility. Driven by herd instinct. Although the market is discounting a recession, it is not discounting The recession. Thinks there will be a rally but then we will get part #2.

2008-11-17

Comment

0.020

Mid-Term Market: Defined as the next year or perhaps 2. The problem we are facing is too much debt. De-leveraging will get the US and the world back to financial health. This process will be painful.

2008-11-17

Comment

0.020

Thinks there would have been more confidence with the senate passing this bill. Thinks it will be a global recession, now that credit problem is moving to phase 2 – following the crisis

2008-10-02

SELL

Oilexco Inc

OIL-T

9.460

It has not a business problem but a financial problem. This is a case where the valuations are down because it is an expensive stock.

2008-10-02

WAIT

Arc Energy Trust

AET.UN-T

20.300

12 years life is not a lot of time. In a couple of years it will become a straight energy company. Wait when it gets beaten up because of converting to a corp.

2008-10-02

DON'T BUY

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

37.210

Avoided all of the sub-prime catastrophes. Trading close to its fair market value

2008-10-02

N/A

Manitoba Telecom Services

0.020

Credit problem is priced into market but recession is not.

2008-10-02

WAIT

Apple

AAPL-Q

100.100

Trade apple if S&P gets down to 1000-point area. Steam is coming out of consumer. This will be a consumer lead recession.

2008-10-02

SPECULATIVE BUY

Nortel

NT-T

2.350

60% discount to book value. It’s a warrant on the survival of the company. It could be bought out. It’s a natural to be acquired by someone.

2008-10-02

DON'T BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

36.000

Hit hard, superb company. Badly affected by outlook in price for oil, but get out of the way of avalanches.

2008-10-02

TOP PICK

MBT-T

41.030

Handling pretty nicely, pretty well all round business. Not exciting, but it’s not meant to be and gives a nice dividend.

2008-10-02

TOP PICK

33.250

Hedge. Not a lot of downside. Not far of it’s long term low. Defensive. Sell-off is a buying opportunity. Will stick with it though thick and tin.

2008-10-02

Comment

0.020

He’s bullish on gold stocks. Market is looking beyond inflationary implications of package to fears of severe recession and commodity weakness.

2008-10-02

DON'T BUY

Agrium

AGU-T

45.010

Wheat, corn and soy are falling sharply. It’s not necessarily economic for farmers to buy expensive fertilizers. We are going to see further weakness in commodities. We are in a commodity bubble that is in the process of bursting, and fertilizer is one of them.

2008-10-02

PAST TOP PICK

Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd

33.250

(Top Pick Oct 5/07, Down 5%) Likes the company – had a roller-coaster year after one heck of a year. Excellent balance sheet, well run company.

2008-10-02

PAST TOP PICK

CTC-T

52.000

(Top Pick Oct 5/07, Down 40%)Used to hold up well in bad economic times because if you couldn’t buy a new item, you would buy the tools to maintain it. Let it come back a little bit more before coming back in. Getting really cheap.

2008-10-02

PAST TOP PICK

Bell Aliant

BA.UN-T

24.850

(Top Pick Oct 5/07, Down 29%) Not unhappy with the holding and will keep holding it. Not trading far away from where it was when it was a corp.; not terrible exciting, but solid and conservative and well run.

2008-10-02

SELL

Canadian National R.R.

CNR-T

48.550

Trading above book value for quite some time. If the commodity bubble has burst, then has it taken the steam out of rail?

2008-10-02

DON'T BUY

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

34.800

Never thought the deal would go through – didn’t think the deal was financable. Still doesn’t think that city-group, the lead financier, can go through with the deal with something on the other side. Wife is a teacher and things teacher is paying way too much.

2008-10-02

DON'T BUY

Teck Cominco Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

24.320

Getting really cheap. Question is how fast commodity prices may keep knocking earning back. It could drop as much as a third.

2008-10-02

TOP PICK

BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bear E.T.F.

36.950

Terrific balance sheet with terrific upside potential. Not on a technical support right now so there is some risk but is fairly cheap on its own history.

2008-08-29

TOP PICK

Bell Aliant

BA.UN-T

27.820

Yield of almost 10%. Fairly inexpensive. Doesn't expect the dividend to be too different from the current distribution.

2008-08-29

TOP PICK

HXD-T

18.370

This is a Short of the TSX. Essentially a bet that longer-term we are going to see the TSX lower than it is now. For every $1 you put into it, you get 2 times the leverage. This will hedge the risk in most people's portfolios a great deal. No more than 25% of your portfolio.

2008-08-29

Comment

0.020

Oil Sector: A most peculiar reaction to recent events. Oil income trusts have been strong and rising on anticipation that oil will recover and payouts will go up. However, the rest of the oil sector has been going down

2008-08-29

WEAK BUY

Goldcorp Inc

G-T

36.120

Feels the US$ is going to find some footing for a while. Gold stocks have already signalled that they are concerned and there has been a technical breakdown on the gold index. His fair market value is about $48 but has significant resistance at $39. Would prefer Barrick (ABX-T), which has a better balance sheet and a lot more upside.

2008-08-29

Comment

0.020

Asian Growth: Asia will lead global growth and Resource stocks will be the ones to benefit most. A lot of them are quite cheap compared to his fair market value but are in locations you don't want to be in. Lundin Mining (LUN-T) and Uranium One (UUU-T) are 2 of these stocks.

2008-08-29

Comment

0.020

Stock Selection Process: He has 3 criteria and they are very simple. 1) Buy good balance sheets. How much debt, equity and the quality of the equity 2) Fair Market Value – Value of the future earnings. 3) Trends. Historically stocks will fall to old lows and rise to old highs.

2008-08-29

Comment

RioCan Real Estate Investment

0.020

Canadian Banks: Slowly and increasingly managed to increase their leverage by getting more stuff off their balance sheets and into investors’ hands so they don't have to use up their own capital to guarantee it. In doing so, their ROE has gone up and up. That trend is now done. Banks now have to take this back but they can't because they don't have the capital.

2008-08-29

DON'T BUY

Toronto Dominion

TD-T

62.130

The best run of the 6 Canadian Banks. Banks are not finished on the downside.

2008-08-29

Comment

Canadian Oil Sands Trust

COS.UN-T

51.460

Huge upside potential. 9.74% yield. The downside is that it sells at over 6X its book value. Most of the rest of the index is selling at about 2.5. As long as oil holds in here it will work out okay. Interesting but speculative.

2008-08-29

DON'T BUY

Apple

AAPL-Q

169.530

Has some potential, but not a lot. Trading at about 8X book, which is not cheap. If things slow down, OUCH! It could lose half its price just like that.

2008-08-29

DON'T BUY

Research In Motion

RIM-T

129.370

Selling at about 19X book. If things don't work out, you have massive downside risk. Launching a new platform, which looks quite interesting. Great product and a lock on their market niche. His fair market value is $198, but this could change very fast.

2008-08-29

BUY

Caterpillar

CAT-N

70.730

His fair market value price is $134 so it has about 100% upside. It is also trading close to very solid technical support. Has a nice balance sheet. Would Buy this one for a trade. Could see it get up to $85-$87 on a bounce.

2008-08-29

Comment

REI.UN-T

21.540

Good landlords however, his fair market value is $12 and is lower than the present stock price. You are kind of relying on the capital appreciation of the real estate portfolio to keep the trust up at in excess of 2X book value. Runs into some technical resistance at about $22.50 with support at about $18. Yield of 6.25%.

2008-08-29

HOLD

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

39.270

You don't have to worry about survivability of the banks. However, the issue is the profitability. Banks have been able to use excess leverage to push off their balance sheets but that is getting harder to do because buyers will not buy stuff that is not guaranteed. Doesn't think the dividend will be cut, but people will be worried about this.

2008-07-15

WAIT

Royal Bank

RY-T

40.180

Would wait for lower prices. Could see the stock easily trading down at around $38 but the target he would really like to see is $31 and he thinks it will get there.

2008-07-15

SELL

IGM Financial Inc.

IGM-T

37.400

5.2% dividend. Has just rendered another Sell signal in the last couple of days. Being a mutual fund manager, the stock rises and falls with the stock market itself. Looking for a 20% down side.

2008-07-15

SELL

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

6.940

From a fair market value point of view, the stock is fairly extended. Not cheap within his parameters.

2008-07-15

SELL

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

33.810

Banks have let go but the 2 major life insurance companies hung on. Sun Life has finally let go and this is the last of the companies that hasn't really set back to a level that he would be comfortable buying.

2008-07-15

SELL

Microsoft

MSFT-Q

26.150

There will be a better chance to buy this company. He is standing on the sidelines right now.

2008-07-15

TOP PICK

BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bear E.T.F.

49.940

Has a big Fair Market Value and excellent balance sheet. With the US increasing amounts of problems, and the Fed trying to deal with it by issuing more and more credit the US$ will be in more trouble so you have to be exposed to gold.

2008-07-15

TOP PICK

HXD-T

19.730

This gives you double the exposure to the market. If the market goes down 10% this will go up 20%. A nice way of not putting a lot of cash into a position but getting yourself lots of leverage.

2008-07-15

TOP PICK

CASH

0.000

It is getting increasingly difficult to buy companies that he has confidence in. You can put your cash in T-bills or bank paper.

2008-07-15

HOLD

Canadian Oil Sands Trust

COS.UN-T

49.850

One of the great winners in the recent rise in oil has not been the oil stocks themselves but has been the energy trusts. As long as oil keeps going up he expects they will raise their payouts.

2008-07-15

PARTIAL SELL

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

103.640

His Fair Market Value is over $250 based upon current oil prices. He is getting nervous about the price of energy. If you own, consider selling bits and pieces.

2008-06-05

Comment

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

CM-T

67.000

His view on bank stocks is that we are kind of in the eye of the hurricane. If anyone thinks that the credit problems are done and over with, they have another think coming. Wouldn't be surprised if there were fears that Canadian banks could cut their dividends. He doesn't see it happening.

2008-06-05

PARTIAL SELL

Agrium

AGU-T

94.350

Fertilizers are going absolutely gangbusters. If you are a holder, he would tend to be kind of dribbling out. Prices are getting very extreme, to the point where farmers will have to cut back drastically.

2008-06-05

PARTIAL SELL

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

POT-T

222.340

2008-06-05

PARTIAL SELL

Cisco

CSCO-Q

27.540

Lots of upside potential. Stock has been moving up in the general NASDAQ rally and could continue a little further. Excellent company and beautiful balance sheet. We are in a recession and it is deepening so he expects equipment sales to slow down. He would consider taking profits.

2008-06-05

Comment

Silver Wheaton

SLW-T

14.670

Has been a bit of a disappointment as of late. Has a good working model and has lots of upside.

2008-06-05

PARTIAL SELL

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

68.280

Would let this one go in dribs and drabs. Company is superb and the heart of the oil sands. Its Fair Market Value is terrific but if there is oil price weakness there could be problems.

2008-06-05

WEAK BUY

Loblaw Companies Ltd

L-T

34.340

Has been really hammered down from 4X book to 1.5X book. Earnings estimates are not particularly supporting a rally of much consequence. If you had a five-year horizon, at this price it's not going to hurt you too much.

2008-06-05

BUY

Magna Int'l. (A)

MG.A-T

70.610

Trading at its “average price to book” long-term low, which makes it very cheap. His Fair Market Value is more than double the current price. Has good potential. Would buy it as a Trade.

2008-06-05

DON'T BUY

Pfizer Inc

PFE-N

18.670

From his perspective, it has absolutely technically broken down. Looks like almost everything is going against it. Also, it is likely Democrats will come to power and won't be helpful to the drug companies.

2008-06-05

TOP PICK

Petro-Canada

PCA-T

58.700

If you are going to be in the oils, pick a cheap one. They’re only selling a little over 2X book compared with the index, which is getting up to 3.5. If things don't work out, it won't get hit too badly but if they do, it could play some catch-up.

2008-06-05

TOP PICK

Bell Aliant

BA.UN-T

29.800

One of the few income trusts that are really solid. When they convert back into businesses, his suspicion is that this one is really cheap. Good 10% yield. Very well run business and very stable.

2008-06-05

TOP PICK

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

41.170

Feels the US has lots and lots of balance sheet issues and the dollar could decline. Because of this, he would like to have a little bit of gold in his portfolio and this one is a nice, good, stable stock and is not very expensive at about 2X book.

2008-06-05

DON'T BUY

Thomson Reuters Corp

TRI-T

36.640

This is a work in progress. The stock is cheap enough but looking at what Thomson paid for Reuters, somebody got hosed. He can't see the upside yet.

2008-06-05

HOLD

POT-T

162.910

A wonderful company. The fair market value is miles above where the stock is trading right now. Lots of upside potential. It is trading 8 times book value, there is lots of down side risk.

2008-03-26

HOLD

Petro-Canada

PCA-T

44.900

Has been a favourite. The stock is dirt-cheap compared to the oils. Cannot understand why it’s so cheap.

2008-03-26

WEAK BUY

Oilexco Inc

OIL-T

13.680

The fair market value based on forecast earnings is $50. The stock is trading on technical support. Not a bad bet. A little more expensive then most of the oils in the index.

2008-03-26

WAIT

Telus Corp

T-T

43.370

As if the market got bored with the stock. Could see a downside of $36-37 before there is interest in it again. Would wait to be buying.

2008-03-26

VAGUE

Fairfax Financial

FFH-T

286.520

Trading around its fair market value. The stock is getting fairly rich. Indifferent to it.

2008-03-26

DON'T BUY

TransForce Inc.

TFI-T

7.770

The balance sheet is slipping which probably means they’re paying too much out. They should cut their pay out, to be positioned as a regular corporation. It’s around its book value. It’s fair market value continues to plummet.

2008-03-26

WEAK BUY

0.020

GC/J8- The recent sheer drop in price tends to be associated with bull market. Not bullish on the U.S dollar. The value of the gold stocks are pretty good.

2008-03-26

VAGUE

Yellow Pages Income Fund

YLO.UN-T

10.190

Got down to its book value, now it’s at its good will (paid too much for its acquisitions). Concerned from a balance sheet point of view. From an earnings point of view it should be OK. Getting a good yield at this price, reasonably sustainable.

2008-03-26

TOP PICK

46.300

Lots of upside potential. An excellent balance sheet. Extremely well run company. Attractive for value investors. Their costs are under fairly reasonable control. The earnings forecasts have been rising nicely.

2008-03-26

TOP PICK

Biovail Corp.

BVF-T

10.950

Getting to a yield of almost 14%, sustainable. Almost down to book value. As cheap as you want to be. Attractive to larger companies to buy.

2008-03-26

TOP PICK

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

0.020

Cash- Concerned about the market and the credit problem. Will continue for quite a long time.

2008-03-26

DON'T BUY

CM-T

66.200

Have a fairly heavy exposure to the junk on their balance sheet. There will be considerable earnings about their earnings. There is a longer term downwards pressure on bank profit. Stay away from it until it gets down to its book value.

2008-03-26

TOP PICK