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| Richard Fogler of Kingwest & Company |
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| PAST TOP PICK | American Express | AXP-N | 49.450 | (A Top Pick July 22/11. Down 3.17%.) | 2011-11-14 | ||
| BUY | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 4.380 | 2 businesses, trains and planes. Train business is very good and is worth more than the present stock price. Plane business is good but it is slower because of the economy and the C series, which is slow to get orders. C series is the plane of the future. Cheap but will take a while. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| BUY | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 39.700 | Doing really well and will continue to do so. High dividend. Stock is worth $50. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| HOLD | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 20.260 | Feels the dividend is safe. On the long term gas is a great thing. Half the price of Europe’s because you can’t transport it. LNG plants are being built globally. In 1.5 years you will start to see more gas being transported east, which is good for this company. If you can hold on for a few years, you’ve got a huge winner. 4% yield. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Firstservice Corp | FSV-T | 26.560 | Started with yard services but are now the 3rd largest real estate brokers globally and largest manager of residential properties in the US and Canada. Trading at about three quarters of the valuation of its competition. Very cheap. For a long term hold. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| BUY | Finning Int | FTT-T | 22.110 | Major Caterpillar dealer in Canada. Have had some managerial problems, which are easily solved. The agricultural revolution seems to be intact. Stock is been knocked down too low. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| BUY | General Electric | GE-N | 16.100 | Great company. Stock has done nothing for a long time. Business has been re-created in much more manufacturing and much less financial services. The manufacturing is really doing well and coming into its own. Stock in the future. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Quebecor Inc (B) | QBR.B-T | 33.380 | (A Top Pick July 22/11. Up 6.28%.) | 2011-11-14 | ||
| Comment | Royal Bank | RY-T | 45.900 | Cdn banks have 2 businesses, retail and investment. This bank closed their retail business in the US when it didn't work. The question is, how are they going to effectively reinvest all their excess cash. This will continue to plague them until there is some clarity. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 21.350 | Insurance companies are contra cyclical to interest rates. When rates go down it is not good for them. Long rates are currently very low. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Vodafone Group PLC | VOD-Q | 29.070 | Largest wireless phone company in Europe. A third of its business is in Africa, middle east and Asia. Trades at about 14X earnings. Worth mid-$40s. Yields about 3.5%. Owns 45% of Verizon (VZ-N), largest wireless in the US. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| BUY | TSX Group | X-T | 44.700 | Theoretically the Maple bid is coming through at the end of January giving $33 a share in cash, which they say is worth $55 and the stock is trading under $45. Looks okay. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Markets. There is a very good case for a Santa Claus rally if you look at 4th quarter historically, which is generally a good quarter. Doesn't happen every year but thinks it's a pretty good bet this year. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | MI Developments | MIM-T | 33.420 | Have a bunch of buildings with AAA leases, all to Magna (MG-T). Converting to a REIT in December. Compared to other REITs, it is trading at 2/3 of its value. Will start paying a $2 dividend in December. Under levered. Worth $43. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Overseas Shipholding | OSG-N | 14.350 | (A Top Pick July 22/11. Down 41.47%.) Still buying this. Oil tankers are not going to improve until at least next year at best. Long term hold. | 2011-11-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Alcoa | AA-N | 15.830 | Will grow at 6.5% a year on aluminum shipments alone. Negative thing is that nothing is news. He looks for something the market is missing and is miss-pricing a stock. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| HOLD | AGF Management (B) | AGF.B-T | 18.150 | A Good company. When you look at market in the last few months it was ‘bla’ and stocks that use the stock market are also ‘bla’. Good dividend and an easy stock to own. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | American Express | AXP-N | 52.240 | Record card member spending. Up 6% in the US. Up 20+% overseas. Credit card losses are collapsing. They customers are higher end consumers and pay off their bills normally. Earnings are booming. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 6.120 | (Top Pick Apr 14/11, Down 11.96) Problem is the ‘C’ series. Orders aren’t going to come until it is ready. He is pretty happy about this one. | 2011-07-22 | ||
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| PAST TOP PICK | CitiGroup | C-N | 40.260 | (Top Pick Apr 14/11, Down 9.09%) If you are going to get outsized returns you have to go where there is a block on the company. This one has one of the largest capital rations in the US (10%). They are the only American global bank with retail presence. As they reduce the bad assets by selling at book value, the earnings will improve because the losses from those assets will disappear. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| WAIT | Canadian Pacific Rail | CP-T | 59.090 | The problem is that their costs are going up because of fuel. Economy is ok, but growth is not keeping pace with increasing cost of fuel. Also they have to pour money into their pension plan. The driver will be interest rates. If interest rates go up 1%, they can stop pouring money into pension plan. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Firstservice Corp | FSV-T | 33.300 | (Top Pick Apr 14/11, Down 13.33%) It’s a 3-5 year investment. Thinks industry will turn around in the next few years. Feels it is 25% undervalued. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Manitoba Telecom Services | MBT-T | 31.930 | It is amongst the cheaper stocks on the board. The problem is it is a very restricted business. They the largest market share in their market of any Canadian telecom so where is the growth to come from. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Onex Corp | OCX-T | 37.030 | Bought a year ago. Great record in private equity. It’s moved up a lot from where it was a couple of years ago and is not cheap any more. Likes the company but would not be now. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 20.070 | Largest drug company in the world. Good pipeline, but they have been paring it down to focus on new drugs. Prefers Teva. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | Quebecor Inc (B) | QBR.B-T | 31.440 | A new entry into the telephone business. Successful cable and local phone business. Introduced wireless business last year and subscribers are increasing (12.5k customer/month). | 2011-07-22 | ||
| BUY | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 37.970 | Likes the wireless a lot. They are all doing well. Canada is still behind the US in subscriber levels. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| WAIT | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 26.470 | Growing domestically and especially over seas. The problem is that the technology hasn’t improved in 5 years. New QNX platform is due to come out soon. He is looking at it. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Royal Bank | RY-T | 53.250 | Don’t worry about the lawsuit in the news recently. They have had some difficulty in the US. They have a spectacular Canadian business. We don’t know where they are going to invest their cash flow in the business now that they aren’t investing in the US. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| BUY | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 33.760 | Got downgraded today. Since February it has not done particularly well. The news industry has not been doing well. News out of News Corp. has weighed on the industry. It’s getting down to be cheap. Thinks they will do very well. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Verizon Communications | VZ-N | 36.740 | New CEO today. You are better off to buy VOD-O who own 45% of VZ. Value of VZ is not reflected in VOD. Should be a big bump over the next year for VOD. He owns VOD. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| BUY | TSX Group | X-T | 44.510 | The LSE is gone. TMX is a good revenue generator. Will continue to do well, grow and pay out big dividends as long as the stock markets remains strong. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| N/A | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Market: They are value investors. Commodity markets are signaling there is a strong economic recovery but stock markets are showing a stumbling economy. If the commodities are correct, then the stocks will follow. If the stock markets are correct then commodity prices could have significant weakness. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| BUY | Molson Coors Brewing Company | TAP-N | 46.540 | Not a good stock for emerging markets because it is 2% of their business. But the company is ok. They are in the process of a rationalization of the Coors and Molson parts of the business. It looks pretty attractive right now. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| BUY | Brookfield Asset Management (A) | BAM.A-T | 30.680 | One of the best investors in North America. Made a very profitable investment about 5 months ago. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| Comment | General Growth Properties Inc. | GGP-N | 1.050 | They couldn’t finance their debt and went into bankruptcy but assets were worth $25 a share. He bought at $0.50 because he calculated it was worth $8. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | Overseas Shipholding | OSG-N | 25.320 | Contrarian play. It’s a long-term (3-5 years) play. It is the largest oil tanker company in the world. Oil prices have nothing to do with their rates. What matters to them is the supply/demand balance and number of ships out there. New ships are coming on this year and next. Tangible book value of $65. He thinks it is a triple over 3 years. | 2011-07-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Alcoa | AA-N | 16.550 | Large portion of demand is coming from China, Russia, Brazil and North America for auto related sectors and this area is not exactly booming. On a longer-term basis, he is reasonably positive, but on a short-term basis he is staying away because of what will be a problem from China. (See Comment on China.) | 2011-04-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 6.890 | Love the prospects. You get the train business for free and the aerospace business is booming. | 2011-04-14 | ||
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| Comment | BP PLC | BP-N | 45.540 | Having problems with their joint venture in Russia accessing vast oil reserves in the artic. TNK joint venture wants to do it but BP feel they have the technology and want to make a separate deal with state owned Rosneft. A tribunal has ruled against the share swap deal. Now in a stalemate. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | CitiGroup | C-N | 4.430 | Does about half its business outside the US. Now stabilized. US government has sold its interest. Good management. Earned $0.50 on its core earning last year and is expected to earn more than that this year. Really cheap. Lots of growth possibilities. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Firstservice Corp | FSV-T | 38.160 | Third largest real estate services company globally. Real estate brokerage, residential property managers (largest globally) and commercial property managers (2nd or 3rd largest globally.) 33% recurring revenue. Growing internally at 5%-6% a year. Can also do real estate “bolt on” acquisitions. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 34.710 | Likes telecoms and thinks wireless is a wonderful place to be. The 55% penetration in Canada, while it has been growing, is well below the US 75% penetration. A lot of room to grow. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 50.140 | Stock has dropped considerably. Short-term outlook may be interesting, particularly around the nuclear situation, which could be a good thing for coal although their coal is primarily metallurgical. Most of the demands for materials are coming from China and he feels their growth is going to slow considerably. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY | Teva Pharmaceutical | TEVA-Q | 49.900 | Largest generic pharmaceutical company globally. Having a lot of trouble getting around $50. Great company and is not expensive. Earnings will come in around $5, trading at 10X earnings. Has a terrific outlook. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | China. Has been growing at 10.5% a year and believes this is going to fall back down to 7%-8% range and will have significant impact on Chinese demands for materials. 50% of demand for copper is going to China today. 100% of this demand in the last 6 months has been for inventory building and financial purposes and speculation. Inventory buildup and speculation is because banks have stopped lending to medium and small size businesses. Indications that speculation is stopping which could create real global reverberations. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Lloyds TSB Group PLC | LYG-N | 3.900 | Bought HBOS just before it went bankrupt in the credit crises. This got them into significant difficulty. Refocused. Good bank in retail banking and their insurance company are doing pretty well. HBOS is trying to get out of their mortgage problems and that is coming along. You better be a long-term investor on this one. | 2011-04-14 |
