| TOP SHORT | | Timminco Ltd. | TIM-T | 22.150 | Has not seen anything to prove to him that they have any sort of proprietary technology and yet there is so much built into the stock. Had declining revenues and operating losses for several years. No clear technology advantage over anyone. Doesn't think they can deliver on any of their contracts. | 2008-04-21 | |
| TOP PICK | | MagIndustries Corp. | MAA-X | 2.790 | Potash play. A very large extremely profitable potash project in West Africa, Magminerals will be spun out as an independent company and will be valued about $4 per share giving a huge premium on today's price. Also have residual operations of forestry and power generation worth about $1.50. Gives close to $5.50/$6 per share of value. You won't capture all this as it will probably trade at discount, but it gives a huge upside from the current price. | 2008-04-21 | |
| TOP PICK | | CIC Energy | ELC-T | 16.000 | Huge coal asset. Assets are in Botswana but the company is serving an electricity-starved market of South Africa. Have huge negotiating power and will probably be locking in a contract and allow them to build their power plant at very profitable levels. The power business will be worth $26-$30 a share. In addition to the power business, they have enormous residual coal reserves that will make a very profitable standalone operation. | 2008-04-21 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Vault Energy Trust | VNG.UN-T | 3.880 | (A Top Pick Nov 17/06. Down 1%.) Acquired by Penn West Energy (PWT.UN-T) | 2008-04-21 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Teranet Income Fund | TF.UN-T | 9.710 | (A Top Pick Nov 17/06. Note change.) When it converts over to a corporate structure, it will be able to maintain its level of distribution. A fabulous target for private equity. | 2008-04-21 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Sound Energy Trust | SND.UN-T | 3.530 | (A Top Pick Nov 17/06. Down 10%.) Acquired by Advantage Energy (AVN.UN-T). | 2008-04-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | WebTech Wireless Inc. | WEW-T | 3.050 | Investors have to look at this one very carefully. Thinks they have very little in proprietary technology. They are virtually a reseller of off-the-shelf technology. History has a lot of black eyes. | 2008-04-21 | |
| STRONG BUY | | Northstar Healthcare | NHC-T | 10.700 | Big believer in this company. Paying a virtual 10% dividend yield. Stock dropped because 1) market is weak 2) there are a few very large sellers looking for liquidity 3) didn't make huge acquisitions as promised and 4) numbers were a little bit disappointing. Fabulous entry point. | 2008-04-21 | |
| BUY | | Akita Drilling Ltd. | AKT.A-T | 15.740 | Very good company. Interesting space to be in. The turnaround in share price of the drillers has probably preceded the fundamentals. Fundamentals over the next several years look incredibly strong. Prefers drillers that have a yield such as Precision Drilling (PD.UN-T). Good entry point. | 2008-04-21 | |
| BUY | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 35.570 | Just completed their merger, which created a lot of confusion with people trying to value the stock and hedge funds being involved trying to play the arbitrage. A wonderful second derivative way to play a rebound in financials. It fell with all the financials even though it is not a financial. Fabulously well run and well capitalized. A good one to salt away without the catastrophic risks of financials. Good for long-term. | 2008-04-21 | |
| BUY | | True Energy Trust | TUI.UN-T | 4.290 | Not a typical income investment as it is more speculative than others. At a very interesting level. Should be able to see significant capital gains. 11.5% distribution is safe and they have a very low payout ratio. | 2008-04-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 43.250 | Thinks that in the short term, gold equities are going to be weak. Not a good entry point. Over owned. | 2008-04-21 | |
| BUY | | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 69.720 | Represents an interesting entry point. Doesn't think it will get close to its previous highs in the next 2 years but expect to get your dividend and some capital appreciation. | 2008-04-21 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Labrador Iron Ore | LIF.UN-T | 58.550 | Prices of iron ore are currently very high. This one is now at a good value and there are others that are higher leveraged plays that would be more attractive. His favourite would be Baffinland Iron (BIM-T), which is on the speculative end. | 2008-04-21 | |
| Comment | | Canadian Hydro Developers | KHD-T | 6.140 | This company has a portfolio of power generation projects. Very well managed and strategic projects. More attention will be put on companies such as this. Could be a very interesting investment proposition in the next 2 or 3 years. | 2008-04-21 | |
| SELL | | Bonnett's Energy Services Trust | BT.UN-T | 2.790 | Victims of the weakening gas prices and the weaker energy services sector. Their current problems are balance sheet oriented. A very dangerous holding at this point. Would prefer companies like Total Energy Services (TOT.UN-T), Precision Drilling (PD.UN-T) or Akita (AKT.A-T). | 2008-04-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 211.100 | Fundamentals for this company are spectacular, earnings momentum is going to be great and the whole agricultural sector is going to be a hot one for many years. Multiples are very high on this one. Will be reporting earnings very soon and there could be some selling off on the news. Look for a period when the market is weak or the stock gives up a lot based on news. | 2008-04-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Uranium One Inc. | UUU-T | 4.840 | Uranium prices have cooled off. Long-term fundamentals for nuclear power generation and the supply/demand imbalance in uranium still remain attractive. This one would not be one of his top picks. Not comfortable with their position in Kazakhstan. A risky holding at this point in time. UEX (UEX-T) would be a top pick and could be an acquisition target as well. Ur-Energy (URE-T) would be safe and has a very large cash position. | 2008-04-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 48.280 | The story of the day for them is their position in coal, particularly Fording (FDG.UN-T) and the process there. Would prefer to own Fording as it is a more pure play on coal. | 2008-04-21 | |
| Comment | | Nova Chemicals Corp. | NCX-T | 25.370 | Has been a real disappointment. There has been fabulous performance from virtually every basic material stock in the TSX while this one has lost people money over the last several years. There is a lot more by you than what the share price shows. Could possibly be a takeover at some point. | 2008-04-21 | |
| SELL | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 48.830 | (Market Call Minute.) Can do better in other banks. | 2008-04-21 | |
| HOLD | | Neo Material Technoligies Inc. | NEM-T | 4.730 | (Market Call Minute.) Fabulous company but no short-term catalyst to the upside. | 2008-04-21 | |
| BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 21.400 | (Market Call Minute.) Large-cap energy and likely long-term acquisition candidate. | 2008-04-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 1.680 | (Market Call Minute.) Excellent new management team. Great long-term prospects. Over owned and overbought right now, so wait for a better entry point. | 2008-04-21 | |
| BUY | | Yellow Pages Income Fund | YLO.UN-T | 11.120 | (Market Call Minute.) Very good entry point. Long-term issues with this business, but the market is more than discounting these. | 2008-04-21 | |
| BUY | | EnCana Corp. | ECA-N | 86.230 | (Market Call Minute.) Fabulous. Simply the best gas company there is. Long-term investors should hold this. Will produce free cash flow and free cash flow growth for many years. | 2008-04-21 | |
| BUY | | Hanfeng Evergreen | HF-T | 12.950 | (Market Call Minute.) A Chinese fertilizer related play. The market has thrown it out as the Chinese market has sold off. | 2008-04-21 | |
| TOP PICK | | Teranet Income Fund | TF.UN-T | 8.910 | Grade A management team. A monopoly type business in Ontario. World-class technology that they can export into different business verticals internationally. | 2006-11-17 | |
| TOP PICK | | Vault Energy Trust | VNG.UN-T | 5.610 | Huge yield. Trading at a huge discount to its net asset value. Have $450 million of tax losses. When 2011 rolls around, this gives them a huge tax shield. | 2006-11-17 | |
| TOP PICK | | Sound Energy Trust | SND.UN-T | 5.280 | Huge cash-on-cash yield. Gigantic tax shield of $510 million. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Shiningbank Energy Income Fund | SHN.UN-T | 14.730 | Any gas weighted trust is probably close to the cusp of cutting distributions, but would ignore that as you have very high yield here. Distributions may move up-and-down, but you have huge capital gains potential. Consider buying Rider (RRZ-T) which gives you exposure because of the share offer giving exposure to their explore co. | 2006-11-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Bonnett's Energy Services Trust | BT.UN-T | 14.990 | (A Top Pick July 21/06. Down 36%.) A double whammy of negative energy services as well as they income trust problems. Incredibly inexpensive on a multiple basis. No risk to their distribution. | 2006-11-17 | |
| PAST TOP SHORT | | Penn West Energy Trust | PWT.UN-T | 33.390 | (A Top Short July 21/06. Down 30.7%.) Probably an interesting Buy at this point. If you own, Hold. | 2006-11-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Mullen Group Income Fund | MTL.UN-T | 18.250 | Hit with the changes in the income trusts as well as with the drop in the oil energy services sector. Access to capital for acquisition is reduced. At best, a sideways story for the next several months. | 2006-11-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Liquor Barn Income Fund | LBN.UN-T | 8.060 | This was a business that depended on the high valuation that they got as an income trust. Not only will they be taxed with no shield, but the ability to make acquisitions has been reduced. | 2006-11-17 | |
| HOLD | | NAL Oil & Gas Trust | NAE.UN-T | 12.850 | Have reduced distributions. | 2006-11-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Liquor Stores Income Fund | LIQ.UN-T | 17.150 | This was a business that depended on the high valuation that they got as an income trust. Not only will they be taxed with no shield, but the ability to make acquisitions has been reduced. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Harvest Energy Trust | HTE.UN-T | 27.010 | A great name. Acquired a refinery, which created a lot of chaos in re-pricing the issue. High yield. | 2006-11-17 | |
| HOLD | | Mission Oil & Gas Inc. | MSO-T | 11.080 | High quality management team and high growth assets.. Being acquired by Crescent Point Energy (CPG.UN-T). This is a good exit if you own so he would tender. | 2006-11-17 | |
| HOLD | | XS Cargo Income Fund | XSC.UN-T | 11.000 | Fairly valued. Their business model is not impacted by the tax changes for income trust. | 2006-11-17 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Pengrowth Energy Trust | PGF.UN-T | 19.710 | Worth owning, but would not be one of his top picks on the oil/gas side. Made an acquisition of Esprit Energy at a very good price. Not really cheap at this point. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Arc Energy Trust Units | AET.UN-T | 20.700 | Stellar management team. Great assets with long reserve life. Good long-term holding in the oil/gas space. Probably won't participate in any near-term rally. | 2006-11-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Extendicare Inc. (A) | EXE.A-T | 25.300 | (A Top Pick July 21/06. Up 8.3%.) (Now a trust.) Is not getting the exemptions that some REITs are, otherwise it would be a lot higher. Consider selling your shares. | 2006-11-17 | |
| SELL | | Enterra Energy Corp | ENT.UN-T | 11.430 | Grossly overvalued. Take the opportunity to sell and get out and move to something better. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Boston Pizza Royalties | BPF.UN-T | 14.660 | A spectacularly successful company that is in a growth mode. Very well-run. | 2006-11-17 | |
| HOLD | | Medical Facilities Corp. | DR.UN-T | 8.620 | Medical facilities, principally in South Dakota. A prime target for privatization by US equity players. If that happens, you'll continue to get distributions and a price of $10 next year. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Keyera Facilities Income Fund | KEY.UN-T | 16.550 | A very good name. Very undervalued at this point. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | New Flyer Industries Inc. | NFI.UN-T | 8.300 | A main competitor was recently a target of private equity players at a very high multiple. This implied a much higher price for this stock, which gave it a boost. Business is growing very quickly. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Pembina Pipeline Income Trust | PIF.UN-T | 14.350 | Pipeline and utility companies in the income trust format are very interesting here. Very stable cash flows. Huge targets for private equities or corporate buyers. | 2006-11-17 | |
| HOLD | | Consumers Waterheater Fund | CWI.UN-T | 13.650 | Great stable assets. Prefers UE Waterheater (UWH.UN-T) at this time. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | UE Waterheater Income Fund | UWH.UN-T | 12.950 | Prefers over Consumer Waterheater (CWI.UN-T). | 2006-11-17 | |
| SELL | | SIR Royalty Income Fund | SRV.UN-T | 8.900 | There will be an impact on the cash flow for distributions. Would prefer some of the bigger brand names that are more liquid. | 2006-11-17 | |
| SELL | | Trinidad Energy Services | TDG.UN-T | 12.350 | An excellent company with technological advantages with a very young fleet. If demand for rigs goes down, this will be the least affected. Would move out of this and into something with more short-term growth. Go back to it in the spring. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Zargon Energy Trust | ZAR.UN-T | 24.900 | Has a lot of capacity internally to keep growing. But management team. Inexpensive. Not a high yield compared to others, but a great name. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Brompton Equal Weight Income Fund | EWI.UN-T | 10.750 | A diversified basket of income trusts. Very low fees. Trading at a big discount to its net asset value. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Bell Aliant | BA.UN-T | 27.630 | 3% growth. A good name for conservative investors. There won't be much capital appreciation. | 2006-11-17 | |
| BUY | | Peyto Energy Trust | PEY.UN-T | 21.870 | Has been an absolute star in creating shareholder value at the drill bit. A lot of the sell off was because it got ahead of itself. Good level. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Baytex Energy Trust | BTE.UN-T | 23.450 | Expects capital gains. A name he really likes. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Citadel Income & Growth Fund | CIF.UN-T | 10.700 | A closed-end fund. This is an interesting way to play the income trust market in that these funds typically trade at a 5% discount. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | E. D. Smith Income Fund | JAM.UN-T | 8.490 | Recently did a major acquisition. Good value at this price. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Golf Town Income Fund | GLF.UN-T | 10.480 | Extremely strong management team. Weather conditions and weakness in the last quarter has cost the stock to drop. A good growth name to own. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Oil Sands Sector Fund | OSF.UN-T | 8.400 | Focuses on oil sands stocks. A good way to play the oil sands. It will give you a diversified basket. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Keyera Facilities Income Fund | KEY.UN-T | 20.050 | Really likes the midstream assets right now, which they own. Expect there will be capital gains here. Good opportunities ahead of them. | 2006-07-21 | |
| SELL | | Lanesborough REIT | LRT.UN-T | 5.610 | Doesn't like this one. Very risky given their capital structure and their strategy. | 2006-07-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Davis & Henderson Income Fund | DHF.UN-T | 18.300 | Has been one of the stars in the business trust area. May actually have turned a corner and be facing a decline in volumes which is affecting their core business. Doesn't see any opportunity for capital gains. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Fairborne Energy Trust | FEL.UN-T | 12.390 | Not on the top of his list for oil/gas trusts. At the level it is now, distributions should be reasonably secure. Good price. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | CANWEST MEDIAWORKS INCOME FUND | CWM.UN-T | 8.300 | Has gone down from the new issue due to a lack of demand for shares. Odds have been stacked against them. Represents value at $8 or below, but once it gets over the $9 level there is no reason to own it. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Enerplus Resources Fund | ERF.UN-T | 62.240 | Distribution is safe. As for the unit price and your capital exposure, this has been the “go to” name. Chronically overvalued because of its US listing. You won't earn significant capital gains unless there is a huge move upwards in oil/gas. | 2006-07-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Fording Canadian Coal Trust (Inc Trust) | FDG.UN-T | 29.230 | The big capital gains and the big excitement of coal is past. This one is a great way to play coal but is showing tremendous volatility in share price and distributions as coal prices move around year-to-year. | 2006-07-21 | |
| HOLD | | Paramount Energy Trust | PMT.UN-T | 18.010 | Gas weighted. With their distribution cuts now out of the way, it is probably a decent entry point. Not the best trust to play a turnaround in gas prices. | 2006-07-21 | |
| SELL | | Daylight Energy Trust | DAY.UN-T | 9.950 | Shares have performed far worse than the actual underlying business. Have been contaminated by their merger with Sequoia Trust. Expect further negative developments with Sequoia. | 2006-07-21 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Shiningbank Energy Income Fund | SHN.UN-T | 20.350 | Recently had a distribution cuts, but they should be fine from this level. A pretty good way to play a turnaround in gas but there are better ways. | 2006-07-21 | |
| TOP SHORT | | Prime West Energy Trust | PWI.UN-T | 33.620 | Doesn't have anything seriously wrong with it but is more of a market hedge. About 70% gas. High level of debt at 2 X debt to cash flow. Believe they will have to issue equity which will be a catalyst to lower the price. Chronically overvalued because it is inter-listed. Good one to short it if you own a lot of oil/gas trusts. | 2006-07-21 | |
| TOP PICK | | Bonnett's Energy Services Trust | BT.UN-T | 23.390 | Weakened by weak natural gas prices. The action has far outweighed the slowdown of the business over the last couple of quarters. Super inexpensive. They'll virtually double their distribution year over year. | 2006-07-21 | |
| TOP PICK | | Extendicare Inc. (A) | EXE.A-T | 23.600 | Splitting into 2 companies, one of them an income trust. An excellent risk/reward. | 2006-07-21 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Sterling Shoes Income Fund | SSI.UN-T | 12.700 | (A Top Pick Feb 10. Up 21.4%.) There is still more to go. Not a well followed name. | 2006-07-21 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | XS Cargo Income Fund | XSC.UN-T | 13.900 | (A Top Pick Feb 10. Down 6.7%.) Management owns half the company. A growth story. Still a favourite. Great long-term story. | 2006-07-21 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Trinidad Energy Services | TDG.UN-T | 15.970 | (A Top Pick Feb 10. Down 8%.) Has had significant volatility. Sold his holdings except for one fund. Setting up nicely again. Still a favourite to play for the back half of the year. | 2006-07-21 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Avenir Diversified Income Trust | AVF.UN-T | 7.940 | Chart shows a precipitous drop, but this is the result of them spinning out a division. Excellent management with a lot of their own money in it. Yield should be safe, but shouldn't be a core holding. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Bonavista Energy Trust | BNP.UN-T | 35.340 | One of his favourite names on the oil/gas side. Has one of the most stable distributions profiles. There is capital appreciation from this level. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Retirement Residences REIT | RRR.UN-T | 7.480 | Paul Reichmann plans to join the bidding for this company. Feels there will be more bids. At anything below $7.50, the risk/reward is very good and you should be buying. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Canadian Helicopters Income Fund | CHL.UN-T | 7.880 | Falls in with the group of energy service operators and was sold off with the rest of them. Represents good value at this price. | 2006-07-21 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Canetic Resources Trust | CNE.UN-T | 22.740 | Not near the top of his list in terms of oil/gas trusts. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 35.000 | Has dropped off with all the oil/gas trusts. Represents good value here. | 2006-07-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | True Energy Trust | TUI.UN-T | 14.200 | Despite having a payout ratio in excess of 100%, they have been quite resilient in not cutting distributions. Now that they have their acquisition of the way, he would expect they should do a cut. This is his least favourite oil/gas trust. Has serious issues. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Trilogy Energy Trust | TET.UN-T | 18.150 | Can't see any more distribution cuts. Great management team. A good way to play rebounding gas. Good level. | 2006-07-21 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Medical Facilities Corp. | DR.UN-T | 9.150 | An odd one in the Canadian business trust as it is a set of small medical facilities in the US. Represents stable distributions. Extremely well run company. US$ exposure. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Mullen Group Income Fund | MTL.UN-T | 24.100 | Well run company. Recently completed a merger that was a very smart move. Sold off primarily because it is an energy services group. Reaction has been far beyond the actual deterioration of their business. A great holding. | 2006-07-21 | |
| HOLD | | Bell Aliant | BA.UN-T | 35.100 | A very smart restructuring and was the absolutely right thing to do. Good for shareholders short-term and long-term. Very modest capital appreciation four people who were looking for steady income. There won't be substantial growth. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | | Trilogy Energy Trust | TET.UN-T | 19.300 | Gas is very cheap on a relative base and historically and is likely to go higher. Good entry point for the long-term but in the near term, would prefer a non-income trust gas such as Compton (CMT-T). Gas trusts are propped up by yield. This one is a spectacularly well run company. | 2006-05-26 | |
| HOLD | | Arctic Glacier Income Fund | AG.UN-T | 11.150 | Extremely stable commodity end product and is never going out of style. However, this one has not been able to extract any synergies or economies of scale as it’s grown. Buy on big dips or when they are doing financing. | 2006-05-26 | |
| BUY | | Calfrac Well Services Ltd | CFW-T | 30.000 | Fracturing business is a very hot space. Prefers Trican Well Service (TCW-T). Feels both will convert to an income trust model in the next 24 months. Current price is probably factoring this in. | 2006-05-26 | |
| BUY | | Trican Well Service Ltd. | TCW-T | 26.050 | Fracturing business is a very hot space. Prefers this one over Calfrac (CFW-T). Feels both will convert to an income trust model in the next 24 months. Current price is probably factoring this in. | 2006-05-26 | |
| BUY | | Boston Pizza Royalties | BPF.UN-T | 18.000 | Has been a great performer. Still has a great growth profile ahead of it. Well managed. | 2006-05-26 | |
| SELL | | Gluskin Sheff + Associates | GS-T | 18.250 | Share price is probably a little bit vulnerable here. Expect it will sell-off a little bit and languish. Will probably go lower. Probably a good buy in a couple of months. | 2006-05-26 | |
| HOLD | | Canada Cartage Diversified Income Fund | TRK.UN-T | 11.050 | A great name. As long as there is robust economic activity in North America, they will do well. Most of the easy money has been made. | 2006-05-26 | |
| Comment | | Retirement Residences REIT | RRR.UN-T | 8.250 | Been a complete mess lately. Up for sale and a potential bidder, Chartwell, dropped out. That took the stock down. Thinks it will get sold for a higher price than what it is trading at, maybe $9.50. | 2006-05-26 | |
| SELL | | Foremost Industries Inc. FD | FMO.UN-T | 19.600 | Has been a spectacular performer. There is very little intellectual property in this business. They are a small player. Very risky. | 2006-05-26 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Trinidad Energy Services | TDG.UN-T | 18.350 | (A Top Pick Feb 10/06. No change.) Good value at these levels. One of the best names you can own in this sector. | 2006-05-26 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | XS Cargo Income Fund | XSC.UN-T | 14.000 | (A Top Pick Feb 10/06. Down 2.4%.) Continuing to open new stores. This is a growth story. Ended up 2005 with 24 stores. Saturation point in Canada is about 70 stores. | 2006-05-26 | |
