| TOP PICK | | Nexen Inc | NXY-T | 39.390 | Going to be tough to invest in the last 1.5 years of this cycle. Oil and gold will generally be extremely volatile. 32% ROE. Phenomenal profit growth. Great fundamentals. PE is 11.9X’s. | 2008-06-27 | |
| TOP PICK | | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 39.520 | Out of 172 global stocks in the telecom sector this one ranks 26 and 6th in terms of the best fundamentals. ROE almost 27% and rising rapidly. PE of about 21X. | 2008-06-27 | |
| TOP PICK | | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 45.740 | Going to be tough to invest in the last 1.5 years of this cycle. Oil and gold will generally be extremely volatile. This is a great name for someone interested in being in the gold space. Lower risk and less volatility. | 2008-06-27 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Sherrit | S-T | 15.560 | (A Top Pick July 16/07. Down 5%.) Other stocks in the materials sector that he would prefer. ROE deteriorated so he sold his holdings. | 2008-06-27 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Telus Corp | T-T | 42.280 | (A Top Pick July 16/07. Down 31%.) Not a bad looking company, but ROE is falling. Sold his holdings. | 2008-06-27 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 64.070 | (A Top Pick July 16/07. Down 10%.) He had expected a mortgage lender crisis in 07 and 08 and this was the best of the lot. However, in the last few months, the ROE has started to decline precipitously. Sold his holdings. | 2008-06-27 | |
| BUY | | Shaw Communication (B) | SJR.B-T | 19.790 | Screened 8000 equities globally, picked out the names that matched his criteria and ranked the companies based on profit growth. Ended up with 453 stocks. Rogers (RCI.B-T) and Shaw Communications (SJR.B-T) were on the list and were among the 5 or 10 best stocks in their space. | 2008-06-27 | |
| Comment | | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 59.400 | Lost more than 20% in the last month. Probably due to concerns that the present price of oil is sustainable. | 2008-06-27 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Oil: A lot of people don't believe present oil prices are sustainable. He believes oil will take a run at $160, pull back in 2009 to about $100-$120, go back to $150, then $120 and could ultimately take a run at $190 in the next 1.5 years. | 2008-06-27 | |
| BUY | | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 122.000 | Likes this company a lot. Extraordinarily volatile. High PE of 47X’s. He looks to see if the rate of profit growth is fully discounted by the stock price. This one looks inexpensive to him. Will probably go higher in the next couple of years. | 2008-06-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 35.750 | The whole of the financial sector is facing a big challenge going forward because of the subprime crisis in the US. Expect the company will do well over the next few years but can't see strong profit growth. | 2008-06-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Power Corp | POW-T | 30.760 | The whole of the financial sector is facing a big challenge going forward because of the subprime crisis in the US. Expect the company will do well over the next few years but can't see strong profit growth. | 2008-06-27 | |
| BUY | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 11.650 | ROE level is18.8% but the more important thing is that the growth in the profitability is very strong. About 19 X earnings. PEG ratio is 1.26. | 2008-06-27 | |
| Comment | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 46.020 | If you’re looking at 10 years you’ll do well here. If you are looking out at the next year and a half, he does not see a V shaped recovery in the financial sector or in the US economy. | 2008-06-27 | |
| Comment | | Nortel | NT-T | 8.430 | There appears to be some profit growth for the first time in years and appears to be well sourced. P/E is around the level of the market. People still have concerns on the quality of the accounting and the quality of their earnings. This is a huge question mark. Can’t imagine that it will be outperforming the market over the next year and a half. | 2008-06-27 | |
| BUY | | Oilexco Inc | OIL-T | 18.770 | 28.6% ROE and rising at a rate that is so unusual statistically that you would see this kind of growth less than 5% of the time historically. A little pricey on a P/E basis at 23.8X’s. Might be the company with the fastest margin and turnover growths in all of the TSX. | 2008-06-27 | |
| BUY | | Agrium | AGU-T | 108.100 | Among his Top 10 favourites in Canada. Getting relatively expensive on a traditional valuation basis. He looks at if a company’s profit growth is more than keeping up with its performance. This and Potash (POT-T) both look fantastic. The moment you start to see erosion in profit growth, there will be trouble with these names. | 2008-06-27 | |
| BUY | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 230.260 | He looks at if a company’s profit growth is more than keeping up with its performance. This and Agrium (AGU-T) both look fantastic. The moment you start to see erosion in profit growth, there will be trouble with these names. | 2008-06-27 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | China: Official numbers for unemployment are probably 65 to 70 million people and is a result of laying people off from farming as they industrialize and try to boost yields. CIA number is probably 160 million. Also 25% food inflation in the last year. To prevent civil unrest, government will probably try to re-stimulate and try to keep economy going for the next year and a half. Post the Olympics there will be hyperinflationary growth. Banking crisis probably follows in 2012. | 2008-06-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Yellow Pages Income Fund | YLO.UN-T | 9.120 | Over 12.5% yield but there is probably concerns on converting back from a trust. ROE is basically flat. Nothing great about their profitability. | 2008-06-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | TorstarCorp (B) | TS.B-T | 12.560 | ROE is 11.16% and is collapsing. Stock looks expensive and will probably continue to under perform. | 2008-06-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Deere & Co. | DE-N | 71.380 | Down 22% year to date and before that it was up 20% year over year, so is basically flat to where it was a year ago. Inexpensive, good ROE level, good profit growth and cheap on a traditional PE basis. Likes it, but wouldn’t touch it right now. | 2008-06-27 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Euro: Believes the US will want to devalue their currency by another 20% to 30%. Market forces might do it for them. If this happens, the Euro will have risen so much that you’ll have some of the weaker nations wanting to bail out of the European Union. Feels the Euro will cease to exist by 2010. | 2008-06-27 | |
| BUY | | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 7.240 | The industrial sector is one of the strongest sectors overall in the world economy. Probably because of the global infrastructure story. Out of about 1370 stocks in the global industrial sector, this one ranks 19th in his model. Capable of outperforming the market over the next year and a half. | 2008-06-27 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 38.530 | Issues of dilution have come up recently and are possibly due to the need for capital. Fundamentals look good. Will likely be able to pick this up at a lower price in the next few months and would go after it if it is off by 10%. | 2008-06-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Loblaws | L-T | 30.580 | Energy inflation could weigh heavily in this sector. Doesn’t like this company. ROE is still under a lot of pressure. | 2008-06-27 | |
| SELL | | SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. | SNC-T | 40.960 | There is some evidence of profitability deteriorating. | 2007-07-16 | |
| SELL | | Goldcorp Inc | G-T | 27.120 | Feels gold will be at $800 in 2008. There are some deflationary risks later on and gold tends to do well in that environment. This is not one of his favourite gold stocks. The ROE decline is too severe for him. Would prefer Kinross (K-T) or Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T). | 2007-07-16 | |
| TOP PICK | | Sherrit | S-T | 16.560 | Has done very well, but not as well as some of the other material stocks. ROE level is around 18%. 2nd fastest profit growth in this sector and 3rd fastest within the TSX. 7.8 X PE. | 2007-07-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 20.820 | Profitability is deteriorating at a very rapid rate. | 2007-07-16 | |
| WAIT | | Kingsway Financial Services | KFS-T | 19.710 | Its valuation is such that it looks very inexpensive. Needs are little more profit growth. His “ price momentums techniques” is telling him to wait. Interest-rate sensitive. | 2007-07-16 | |
| TOP PICK | | Telus Corp | T-T | 63.450 | Underlying fundamentals are great. Great margin growth and great asset turnover growth. Cheaper than the market on a PE basis. | 2007-07-16 | |
| STRONG BUY | | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 49.400 | Looks great. Very expensive on a PE basis but has phenomenal profit growth. Throwing off so much cash, it looks exceptional. | 2007-07-16 | |
| SELL | | Brookfield Asset Management (A) | BAM.A-T | 42.000 | ROE declines are now noteworthy. Wouldn't be in the stock. | 2007-07-16 | |
| TOP PICK | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 72.670 | One of the risks is that bond yields rise. He expects they will hold below the 5.2% level for the time being. Their ROE has begun to accelerate. 15 X earnings is cheap relative to the TSX. | 2007-07-16 | |
| HOLD | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 40.070 | Less sensitive to interest rates than the banks. Their ROE has stalled out. Doesn't expect it will do much in the next few months. | 2007-07-16 | |
| TOP PICK | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 54.460 | Around 15 X earnings. Relative to the 22 X weighted average on the TSX, it’s relatively cheap. ROE level is over 23% so is growing its book value at over 10% per annum. Yields have generally been close to 3%. | 2007-01-30 | |
| TOP PICK | | Shaw Communication (B) | SJR.B-T | 41.790 | P/E is not expensive at around 18 or 19 X earnings. His approach to valuation indicates it is significantly undervalued. ROE has been so strong, that it implies there is still a 95% chance that it outperforms the market. Very strong margin growth and very strong asset turnover growth. | 2007-01-30 | |
| TOP PICK | | Agnico-Eagle Mines | AEM-T | 46.690 | Risky in the sense that he believes gold is consolidating this year. Looking for higher gold prices. Expensive on a P/E basis at 36 X because earnings are low compared to where this stock could go. | 2007-01-30 | |
| BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 39.390 | Moderately undervalued according to his valuations. Profit growth rate is better than the market average. Good yield. Stable earnings and ROE history. A relatively defensive interest-rate sensitive name. | 2007-01-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 59.020 | If you're looking for a long-term “ Buy and Hold”, you have to be very careful right now. Across the board, they have declining profitability. | 2007-01-30 | |
| Comment | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 69.580 | At about the midpoint in the range of valuation for Canadian banks. Royal (RY-T) and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) are his favourites, followed by CIBC (CM-T). This Bank would be his 4th pick. | 2007-01-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Laurentian Bank | LB-T | 30.720 | Has a much lower ROE average than the other banks. Their growth has been sporadic and weaker than other banks on average. Prefers other banks. | 2007-01-30 | |
| BUY | | Alcan Aluminum | AL-T | 59.940 | US economy is gradually slowing. Also, does not believe China's growth will slow this year. China's lack of ability to produce aluminum is probably due to hydro shortage. Would not be surprised to see base metals go up. Likes the fundamentals on this company. Looks inexpensive. | 2007-01-30 | |
| BUY | | Kinross Gold | K-T | 15.510 | Buying some Russian assets and he is a little nervous about Russian stability. However, this is a great stock. Excellent fundamentals and the profit growth is spectacular. ROE is improving steadily. | 2007-01-30 | |
| Comment | | SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. | SNC-T | 35.500 | Stock looks OK, but not spectacular. ROE reasonable. Getting a little expensive now. This is a name that he likes. | 2007-01-30 | |
| BUY | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 49.450 | Likes this company a lot. There has been gradually improving margins and asset turnover. Has a 95% probability that it outperforms the market. | 2007-01-30 | |
| Comment | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 50.920 | The longer the Federal Reserve is forced to leave the yield curve flat, in order to keep bond yields within an acceptable range, the greater the risk the mortgage lenders fail in the US. When that happens, the banks will pull back sharply. The fundamentals on the banks long term, are good enough that you could probably buy. Over the next 2 years there will probably be a shock, but over the next 3 years you will probably do well. This is his 2nd favourite bank. | 2007-01-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 186.280 | This goes back to the emerging economy story. India and China have a third of the world's population so there should be a great future for fertilizers. However, after the big move on the stock price, the ROE has started to weaken a bit. | 2007-01-30 | |
| SELL | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 85.740 | Still has pretty good fundamentals, but he would like to see stronger profit growth. Given where we are in the cycle, he would take profits. If you have a | 2007-01-30 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Optimistic about gold and base metals over the next 3-4 months. Will do very well into the 1st quarter of 2007 and a good chance it may last into the 1st half. In the 2nd half of 07 there are going to be some bumps in the road in the form of mortgage pressure on lenders in the US, which will have a big impact on the behaviour of markets. There will be some economic pressures into 08 because of global slowing. Still thinks gold will hit $800 by 08. | 2006-11-03 | |
| HOLD | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 151.800 | Analysis indicates the price momentum is still upward from here. Good level of profitability and stock is still undervalued. Rate of profit growth is not as strong as he would like. Wouldn't want to bet on it over the next 2 months. | 2006-11-03 | |
| BUY | | Agnico-Eagle Mines | AEM-T | 43.110 | There is some strong profit growth and strong fundamentals in golds. This is in the top 10 stocks in the materials section four profit growth. | 2006-11-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 37.910 | Fundamentals are much weaker than most of the materials sector. Able to outperform the market if you are prepared to look out 12-18 months. A weak sister in the sector. | 2006-11-03 | |
| BUY | | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 28.000 | Has pretty good profit growth. An interesting speculative opportunity now. Likes the underlying fundamentals. | 2006-11-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 18.160 | At present he is not buying it. It looks weak fundamentally. | 2006-11-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | National Bank of Canada | NA-T | 62.700 | This is the one bank with very weak profit fundamentals. Expecting they could disappoint on earnings when they report. | 2006-11-03 | |
| HOLD | | Goldcorp Inc | G-T | 30.340 | Good fundamentals and is optimistic on the direction of gold. Could go much higher. It has to stay above the $28 level, and if it does, the implied direction is still higher. | 2006-11-03 | |
| BUY | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 9.940 | Likes the fundamentals a lot. Using the price momentum technique, the stock has to stay above $9.90. Fundamentals indicate a could rise another 10%-20%. | 2006-11-03 | |
| SELL | | Great West Lifeco | GWO-T | 32.720 | ROE has deteriorated. Interest rate sensitive, so it is very important that interest rates go lower. He just sold his holdings. | 2006-11-03 | |
| TOP PICK | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 51.100 | Has a 93% chance of outperforming the market. The ROE level is 21.4%. Rate of growth in profitability is very strong. | 2006-11-03 | |
| TOP PICK | | Shaw Communication (B) | SJR.B-T | 35.280 | If the TSX is up 10% as he expects, this stock could be up 30%. A good, solid, secular growth story. | 2006-11-03 | |
| TOP PICK | | Kinross Gold | K-T | 14.990 | Has the fastest rate of profit growth in the TSX. 9th largest gold producer in the world. | 2006-11-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Inmet Mining | IMN-T | 55.400 | (A Top Pick Sept 20/05. Up 185%.) Still undervalued. Has one of the lowest P/E’s because of the spectacular profit growth. | 2006-11-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Shell Canada | SHC-T | 42.990 | (A Top Pick Sept 20/05. Up 6.1%.) Not his first pick in oils anymore. | 2006-11-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 51.660 | (A Top Pick Sept 20/05. Up 26.4%.) Still likes. Profit growth is very strong. Still a buy. | 2006-11-03 | |
| BUY | | Imperial Oil | IMO-T | 40.100 | If you were going to speculate on an oil stock going higher, this is one that he thinks is a good trading opportunity. It has an unbelievable 43% ROE. | 2006-11-03 | |
| BUY | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 56.550 | It is 1 of only 19 companies in the TSX that has such rapid margin asset and turnover growth. It is holding up very well in this period of weaker oil prices. A good one to speculate on in a trade. | 2006-11-03 | |
| BUY | | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A) | CTC.A-T | 73.800 | Ranks very well in his work. Has very strong margin and asset turnover growth. | 2006-11-03 | |
| BUY | | Consumers Waterheater Fund | CWI.UN-T | 12.650 | On his good list for income trusts. Very strong underlying operating characteristics. Undervalued. Profit growth is strong. A good long-term investment. | 2006-11-03 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 66.780 | It would rank 4th out of the 6 banks that he looks at, but it is part of a group of interest sensitive, high ROE, stable companies. Prefers others. | 2006-11-03 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Metro Inc (A) | MRU.A-T | 35.200 | Looks pretty good. Meets all the characteristics that he is looking for in a stock with one exception. When profit growth is not supported by margin and asset turnover improvement, he's not sure the reason. | 2006-11-03 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Manitoba Telecom Services | MBT-T | 45.490 | Yield of 5.8%. A pretty good chance it will be taken out by Telus (T-T). Poor in its profit growth but it’s in a spectacular sector. | 2006-11-03 | |
| BUY | | Telus Corp | T-T | 57.380 | Capable of going to $70-$75 if the TSX went up another 10%. The sell off has created a great opportunity. Underlying fundamentals are some of the best you would see on any stock. | 2006-11-03 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | A general comment on oil. Because China and India are coming to the point of becoming self-sustaining and are having a significant impact on the commodity price as well as geopolitical risk, oil prices will stay higher than people have been accustomed to. $85 oil is a possibility later in the year. Oil prices have been stuck around $70 for a year and a deterioration of corporate profit growth has started in the energy area. A little concerned that the profitability of the energy sector is not as strong as it was. | 2006-08-18 | |
| BUY | | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 74.800 | This company stands out. Still inexpensive. Pretty good profit growth. The margin growth and asset turnover growth is spectacular. If you are looking out 6/12 months, he would buy it right now. | 2006-08-18 | |
| WAIT | | Canadian Oil Sands Trust | COS.UN-T | 36.110 | Looks good. Good profit growth. The problem is, there has been a lot of enthusiasm in the oil sands area and stocks have done spectacularly well. Would hold off for about 2 months. Could drop 10/15% which would be a great opportunity. | 2006-08-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 19.530 | Has seen a very great deterioration in profitability. | 2006-08-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Arc Energy Trust Units | AET.UN-T | 29.030 | Has taken a 7/8% hit in the last 10 days. Expects this is due to profit deterioration. This is an especially serious matter for trusts. The most important determinant of the performance of trusts is profit growth. When profit growth falters, there is a real risk of distribution cuts. | 2006-08-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Agrium | AGU-T | 26.500 | Profitability is falling quickly. Stock is expensive. | 2006-08-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 112.360 | Would avoid this one for the time being. | 2006-08-18 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Nova Chemicals Corp. | NCX-T | 35.760 | If you needed to be in this section, this would be better than Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T) but this is not as strong recommendation. | 2006-08-18 | |
| HOLD | | Alcan Aluminum | AL-T | 51.500 | Has great fundamentals right now. If you're looking out to the end of this economic cycle, this is a good place to be. | 2006-08-18 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Believes we are only 60% through the economic and equity cycles. Doesn't think the Fed will be forced to intentionally cause a recession before 2009/2010. | 2006-08-18 | |
| BUY | | Peyto Energy Trust | PEY.UN-T | 21.530 | The smaller energy companies are still putting up some pretty good profit growth. This is not a smaller name but it's in the group that has strong profit growth. Fundamentals look very good. Be prepared to look past any short-term weakness. | 2006-08-18 | |
| HOLD | | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 3.380 | Has just slightly above average valuation. There is just a touch of profit growth. ROE levels are low and barely rising. Speculative at this point. It's likely that the worst has been seen. | 2006-08-18 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 45.550 | (A Top Pick Aug 5/05. Up 0.1%.) Since it was recommended, its profitability has deteriorated. Fundamentals are not as appealing now. | 2006-08-18 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Inmet Mining | IMN-T | 46.180 | (A Top Pick Aug 5/05. Up 142%.) Believes we are only 60% of the way through a commodity and economic cycle and these stocks tend to perform better later in the cycle. Valuation looks great. Has spectacular margin and volume/asset turnover improvements. | 2006-08-18 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Shell Canada | SHC-T | 38.270 | (A Top Pick Aug 5/05. Down 3.2%.) Valuation looks pretty good. Sourcing of the profit growth looks pretty good. ROE is deteriorating. Sold his holdings. | 2006-08-18 | |
| BUY | | Hudbay Minerals Inc. | HBM-T | 15.970 | Looks fantastic in this sector. The profit growth is nothing short of spectacular. The ROE level is impressive. | 2006-08-18 | |
| BUY | | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 40.570 | Great earnings growth. The street is anticipating a commodity sell off so is not willing to pay for these stocks. Looking at several years, they are probably going to give you sustained out performance. | 2006-08-18 | |
| BUY | | Ensign Resource Service Group | ESI-T | 22.480 | Likes the oil service sector. This one looks good on profit growth. | 2006-08-18 | |
| BUY | | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 35.540 | This is a good gold stock if you want something with lower risk. Has some pretty good fundamentals for the first time in years. | 2006-08-18 | |
| BUY | | Kinross Gold | K-T | 13.840 | A good gold stock if you're prepared to take higher risk. | 2006-08-18 | |
| HOLD | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 49.530 | Looks pretty good. Would prefer Husky (HSE-T). It should do very well over the next 12 months. | 2006-08-18 | |
| SELL | | Power Corp | POW-T | 31.510 | There are some really interesting assets here, but profit growth is weak and it looks a little expensive. The deterioration of Great West (GWO-T) profit growth concerns him. | 2006-08-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | AbitibiBowater Inc. | ABH-T | 2.950 | A number of names in this area look like they are troughing on profitability. It looks like ROE can't get any worse right now. Still exposed to the risk of a higher Canadian$. | 2006-08-18 | |
| TOP PICK | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 48.790 | Of the top 5 banks it is generating the 2nd best profit growth and highest level of profitability. Had a recent correction, but looks like it is rebounding. Interest-rate sensitive and he believes bond yields in the US move towards the 4.4 level and maybe lower by year end. The stock has a high level of ROE, a 3% dividend yield and good profit growth. | 2006-08-18 | |
| TOP PICK | | Baytex Energy Trust | BTE.UN-T | 26.090 | Yield is 8.25%. 33% Return On Equity. Good strong profit growth. This is a defensive energy pick. | 2006-08-18 | |
| TOP PICK | | Telus Corp | T-T | 53.600 | Very well sourced profit growth. | 2006-08-18 | |
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