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Paul Harris, CFA of Avenue Investment Management

Opinions from Paul Harris, CFA

DON'T BUYBarrick GoldABX-T35.650Doesn't like this company. Can't see where growth is coming from except through acquisitions. A hard business to constantly be making acquisitions. Prefers Goldcorp (G-T), which is the lowest cost producer. Gold stocks are probably a Buy in the next little while. Thinks gold will test $800, which is a good buying opportunity at that time.2008-08-14
WATCHGoldcorp IncG-T32.930Lowest cost producer. Gold stocks are probably a Buy in the next little while. Have a huge long-life asset. Thinks gold will test $800, which is a good buying opportunity at that time.2008-08-14
WATCHAgnico-Eagle MinesAEM-T53.840Gold stocks are probably a Buy in the next little while. Thinks gold will test $800, which is a good buying opportunity at that time.2008-08-14
CommentToyotaTM-N89.600Largest car company globally. Announced slower sales growth than expected. This is the real risk. People are not buying cars aggressively. If the US$ continues to do well, that is fine but if the yen gets stronger this will have an impact on them. Shorter term there could be some volatility.2008-08-14
DON'T BUYCitiGroupC-N18.080Like all the banks in the US, it faces the huge issue of the mortgage business. Banks take a long time to get out of the cycle.2008-08-14
BUYBrookfield PropertiesBPO-T22.140Has some fantastic properties in the US and Canada. Tied to the financial world in some ways but companies are not getting rid of massive floors of traders, etc. They do have some residential properties, which has hurt them. Even if you give these a zero value, the stock is still worth $25-$28.2008-08-14
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Oil Stocks: Market is not pricing in $100 oil. It takes a long time for the companies to catch up, as analysts don't feel oil can stay at the high levels. Oil will continue to be in high demand.2008-08-14
TOP PICKGoldman SachsGS-N166.590Premier investment bank globally. Has stayed away from the mortgage issues. They will be able to grow their business a lot faster than anyone else. Trades at around 8.5X earnings. Management has done a great job on the risk side.2008-08-14
TOP PICKAllied Properties REITAP.UN-T19.700A REIT in Toronto. Bean and brick buildings. Trading at a discount to its NAV. Made a large acquisition in Montreal and some smaller ones in Toronto and have not flowed through their net operating income but should happen in the next year or so. 8.5% yield.2008-08-14
TOP PICKBank of AmericaBAC-N30.180This is a retail bank and retail banking is really great because it is cheap funding. Acquired Countrywide, which is a good franchise. Not involved in a great deal with investment banking.2008-08-14
CommentAmerican ExpressAXP-N38.200US financials look cheap from an overall financial basis but you have to decide if it is going to be a core position. Not a pleasant environment even for this company. Loan losses are going up and their market is deteriorating. Great company and well run but in this environment you'll probably have to buy more at a lower rate.2008-08-14
BUYManulife FinancialMFC-T37.700Great well run company. Missed the street on numbers but if you look at the components, they were actually quite good. A lot of great growth prospects in Asia.2008-08-14
TOP PICKGoldman SachsGS-N183.650Because of the credit crunch a lot of these companies valuations have collapsed. This one is a premier investment bank and was not involved in the credit issues. Trading at 8X earnings. Beat estimates in their last quarterly numbers.2008-06-25
TOP PICKBrookfield PropertiesBPO-T18.880Own Class A commercial buildings in major cities. Likes it because it trades at about a 25% discount to its NAV. They do have residential buildings, which have hurt their net operating income but this is a smaller part of their business.2008-06-25
TOP PICKCameco CorporationCCO-T38.860Likes the uranium business. Fundamentals are very strong. They are the lowest cost producer with the best assets. Thinks they are on target to get Cigar Lake mine going again by early 2009.2008-06-25
BUYCanadian National R.R.CNR-T50.580It is much cheaper to transport by rail as opposed to trucking. The one thing that hurt them is the strong Cdn$.2008-06-25
HOLDBCE Inc.BCE-T37.550Thinks the deal will go through.2008-06-25
CommentHoneywell InternationalHON-N51.500If you're trading the stock, from a technical perspective it is at the bottom of the range. The company suffers from being in an industrial area that is slowing down. If you are buying for the long term, this could get cheaper and you should wait.2008-06-25
CommentFortis NVFORSY-NL0.001Involved with the Royal Bank of Scotland in the ABN-Amro deal and took over the retail business in the Netherlands. They have to integrate this, which is a longer-term process and could hold back the stock. If they meet all their targets they will do well over a longer period of time.2008-06-25
BUY on WEAKNESSResearch In MotionRIM-T144.000Missed earnings by only $0.01 and stock dropped 10% in after-hours trading. Doubled its earnings growth and has huge subscriber growth. Doesn't think it will be able to compete with Apple (AAPL-Q) in the consumer space. If the pulls back a reasonable amount, you will want to own it.2008-06-25
DON'T BUYMotorolaMOT-N7.520Did a poor job on the handset side. Burning cash at $1 billion annually. Having a very difficult time in all their segments and margins are collapsing in a lot of them.2008-06-25
BUYICICI Bank Ltd.IBN-N32.670Indian bank. Has been volatile. Not a cheap bank. The interesting thing is that it is in an emerging market that is growing at 8% to 10% a year. Have very few investment products. It will continue to do well. You have to think of this in a 10-year cycle.2008-06-25
BUYBank of MontrealBMO-T43.700This is a bank that is trying to change and get out of the credit issues. Trades at 8.1X earnings and 1.6X book so it is trading at very low valuation. If you own, consider adding to your position at this price.2008-06-25
TOP PICKBrookfield PropertiesBPO-T19.990Likes that they sign long-term contracts with escalation clauses with their clients. Stock has dropped dramatically because of concerns of a US recession that will effectively lay off everybody. That is not really the case. Good internal growth.2008-05-22
TOP PICKCiscoCSCO-Q25.580The best of all the global networking companies. Made some very astute acquisitions when competition was in difficulty. Broad product range. You pay 16X earnings that he feels is growing at 25%. The kind of company you want to own when banks etc. start spending money on infrastructure.2008-05-22
BUYGoldcorp IncG-T41.290One of the best companies in the sector. Lowest cost of production at around $250. Great growth prospects.2008-05-22
BUY on WEAKNESSBCE Inc.BCE-T32.640He is a bondholder. Teachers pension will have to deal with bondholders. Could mean cutting the price of the shares from $42.75 to $35-$38 level to meet the requirements of paying off the bondholders. Long route would be to go to the Supreme Court of Canada. Fairly priced at $30-$32.2008-05-22
DON'T BUYTalisman EnergyTLM-T23.450Never liked this one because of 1) more of an international play rather than at a domestic play and 2) didn't see growth increasing. New management has a new strategy, but this takes time to implement. Could be 3 or 4 years from now.2008-05-22
CommentNovartis AGNVS-N52.800One of the better performing drug companies over the last several years, but suffers from what many of the drug companies suffer from; much more difficult to come up with new drugs. Well run company.2008-05-22
DON'T BUYBombardier Inc (B)BBD.B-T7.420Not a fan of the aerospace industry from a commercial point of view. Also highly government supported. Their competition Embraer (ERJ-N) came out with a better plane. At $134 oil, airline industry is having problems. Their clients can cut their backlog back very quickly.2008-05-22
CommentEncana CorpECA-T92.940Unhappy that it is splitting up as it makes it more difficult for him to judge all the factors in the company.2008-05-22
TOP PICKGoldman SachsGS-N177.200When a market is coming out of a financial crisis, you want to buy the best company. This is one that didn't have all the issues on the debt side. They were able to get out of it and hedged their position. Trading at about 11X earnings.2008-05-22
BUYA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020REITs: - REITs in general have under performed the market for the last couple of years. This is a sector he should be in at these levels. Likes Allied Properties (AP.UN-T) which has done quite well.2008-04-24
DON'T BUYLoblawsL-T29.340They had an incredible franchise years ago with very high margins. Now have a lot of competition and will never get the margins that they did historically. Not cheap.2008-04-24
DON'T BUYFalcon Oil & GasFO-X1.130Just signed a joint venture with Exxon Mobil (XOM-N). They still have to drill a fair number of holes to prove the reserves. Very expensive drilling because of very deep wells. At these levels, you are taking a very high risk.2008-04-24
BUYNokiaNOK-N28.590Came out with their numbers and the stock fell a fair bit over the last couple of days. If you look at the numbers and take out the one-off (?), they actually met expectations. Much better run company then Motorola (MOT-N). They will continue to grow market share. They expect top line sales growth between 6% and 10%. Throw off a tremendous amount of free cash flow. Good price.2008-04-24
BUYPower CorpPOW-T34.930Came up quite a bit like many financials. Very well run. Have made some very astute acquisitions over the years. Have grown their asset management business. The US Putnam acquisition was very astute and will pay off longer term.2008-04-24
BUYCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ-T83.250Likes this one. Should continue to do well. One of the best run companies in the oil/gas sector. Has the ability to grow its reserves and production. Good long-term hold.2008-04-24
DON'T BUYA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Fertilizer Stocks: - Fertilizer stocks have done very well. The premier company is Potash (POT-T) as well as Agrium (AGU-T). At these levels, the multiples are very high so he doesn't own them. If you buy, be prepared for lots of volatility.2008-04-24
BUY on WEAKNESSVisa Inc.V-N72.300An excellent story. He thought there would be a pullback and would buy it then. There are no debt issues or bad credit card issues. It should do very well. Fundamentals are very strong long-term. Try to buy at $65.2008-04-24
TOP PICKGoldman SachsGS-N188.790Trading at about 8X earnings. A global franchise in the equity, M & A business. They will continue to do well. The best Company in the sector.2008-04-24
TOP PICKBrookfield PropertiesBPO-T20.720Trades at almost an 18% discount to its NAV. Has some of the best properties in the world including New York, Toronto and other parts of the US. Market is undervaluing its ability to grow over long periods of time. They have long-term contracts with their clients.2008-04-24
TOP PICKCiscoCSCO-Q26.030Trading at 15X earnings. A great company. In the networking sector, they have been the best. Still have very high gross margins. Broad product range where they can supply a lot of different clients. Took advantage of Nortel, Lucent and Alcatel distressed situations that they were actually able to grow their franchise. Over the next 3 to 5 years should grow at least 15%-20% if not more.2008-04-24
BUYLowes Companies Inc.LOW-N25.020Q: Would you buy Lowe's (LOW-N) or Home Depot (HD-N)? A: Lowe’s is a much better run company and you should look to buy it at these levels. Thinks the housing sector will recover, if not through new homes, through renovation, which they make a lot of money on.2008-04-24
CommentHome DepotHD-N28.920Q: Would you buy Lowe's (LOW-N) or Home Depot (HD-N)? A: Lowe’s is a much better run company and you should look to buy it at these levels.2008-04-24
VAGUEBear SternsBSC-N5.960Worth more money. At this level there’s a lot of speculation. J.P Morgan wins with any outcome2008-03-20
DON'T BUYNortelNT-T6.270At this level it’s not a bargain, it’s more going down the drain. Cisco is much better at these levels. Nortel has problems increasing margins. Management having problems. 2008-03-20
BUYA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Gld-us: Mimics the price of gold. Gold has some very strong long-term fundamentals. 2008-03-20
DON'T BUYBarrick GoldABX-T42.980Don’t like it. Not a lot of growth. Prefer Gold corp, with a very strong growth profile. Long term, gold will go up.2008-03-20
BUY on WEAKNESSVisa Inc.V-N33.370Not a lending company, it’s a toll route, processing. A great story, think it will go up. If it pulls back $5 you should buy. 2008-03-20
WEAK BUYCanadian National R.R.CNR-T48.670Like the rail business. One of the better run companies. May be some volatility, the strength of the Canadian dollar hurts them. It will do well in the next couple years. 2008-03-20
WEAK BUYBarclays Bank PLCBCS-N35.160The dividend is safe. A very well run company. Good retail, good credit card business. One of the largest asset managers in the world. If you’re looking to buy a bank, they’re an option. 2008-03-20
TOP PICKCiscoCSCO-Q24.770Trading around 15 times earnings, cheap. Have very strong growth prospects. Have a great portfolio of assets. Have been growing over seas. Very good tech stock at a very good multiple. 2008-03-20
TOP PICKToronto DominionTD-T63.200Made several acquisitions in the U.S. Want to grow their retail franchise. Have been very smart. Getting it at a decent price, at a decent multiple with a decent yield. 2008-03-20
TOP PICKAllied Properties REITAP.UN-T18.200Has about a 7% yield. Like the real estate market. Made several acquisitions over the last year. Very comfortable with the stock. 2008-03-20
BUYStarbucksSBUX-Q17.830At these levels it's a good buy. Management has been changed. Looking to grow their stores at a slightly slower pace. Still have lots of potential for international expansion.2008-02-21
BUYAllied Properties REITAP.UN-T19.120Have a monopoly on their field, I-class properties, brick and beam buildings. Trades at a price to FFO of about 11X. Yields about 6%. Doesn't trade at a huge discount to its NAV, but what is very important is that the company has made several acquisitions over the last 3 to 6 months which will help increase their NAV.2008-02-21
STRONG BUYYell GroupYELL-LSN0.000(Trades on the London exchange.) Trades at about 6 or 7 X earnings with about a 7% yield. Free cash flow yield of about 8%. In past recessions, adds in the yellow book have not gone down. Numbers will probably be flat this year but in 2008 and 2009 they are actually increasing prices. Their Spanish business has been restructured so there should be a lot of good news coming out.2008-02-21
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Oil: - This is a longer-term story. There are very few large exploration finds around the world. For every 1000 people in China, there are 9 cars and for every 1000 in the US, there are 900. China has a long way to catch up and it is a lot of oil to have to use. India is a similar example. Dynamics for oil longer-term are very, very good.2008-02-21
DON'T BUYTalisman EnergyTLM-T16.310Have new management and that has been a difficult issue with it. Have overseas exposure, which are always kind of issues you are facing. Can't see where they are going to be able to increase production aggressively over the next little while. Will not participate as well as other stocks but will go up as oil goes higher.2008-02-21
BUYCiscoCSCO-Q23.190Love the company. One of the premier companies in its space. As blown away the competition over the last several years. Revenues went down after the last bubble, but they still maintained margins at 65% or so. Made some very good acquisitions. Have a broad spectrum of products that they offer. Think they will continue to grow and aggressively overseas.2008-02-21
CommentCitiGroupC-N25.050Cut the dividend, so it should be safe. Has gone through a transition where they had a very important leader and somebody took over. A lot of people left. Thinks that breaking it up into component parts is wrong. Have written off a lot of their subprime debt and they may have to write off some more. Trading at 8X earnings and has a 5% yield. If you have a long-term view, it's not a bad time to be buying US banks.2008-02-21
TOP PICKWolseley PLCWOS-LN14.640(London exchange.) Housing supplier of taps, etc. Yields 5%. Have been cutting costs aggressively in the US and have made some acquisitions. Very cheap multiple.2008-02-21
TOP PICKBrookfield PropertiesBPO-T18.950Suffered like many of the other global real estate companies. One of the big tenants in New York has said they are going to stay. One of the very best companies around. Trades at about 12X its price to FFO. Yields about 3%. Buying back stock. Have some of the best properties in the world. Trades at about 25% discount to its NAV.2008-02-21
TOP PICKCameco CorporationCCO-T36.880Has the best uranium deposits in the world. This is a very simple dynamics on uranium. There are 442 nuclear reactors around the world. That requires 180 million pounds of uranium a year. In 2005 110 million pounds of uranium was produced. There have been a lot of problems and there is not a lot of supply coming on board.2008-02-21
BUYSunlife FinancialSLF-T46.920Life insurers have been treated like banks. This is a very well run company and is not trading at excessive multiples.2008-02-21
BUYRoyal Bank of Scotland PLCRBS-N8.100Sold his holdings last summer. Trades at a ridiculous multiple of 5X earnings, below book. Think the yield will be cut. If you have a long time horizon, this is a great company. Has great franchises in the US and UK. Have done some very good things, which will help the stock out in the long run.2008-01-24
BUYDiageo PLCDEO-N79.820Liquor. In this environment, people tend to go to stories like tobacco, alcohol, etc. It is a stable business over long periods of time. Well run. Very cost conscious. Have some of the best brands in the industry. Generates lots of free cash flow.2008-01-24
BUYTeck Cominco Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T31.250At a level where it is worth buying. One of the issues is that they have zinc, copper, coal, etc. and some of the commodities are not doing well right now but will do well down the road. A bigger issue is management that has been poor of late, and he is looking for changes in the next little while.2008-01-24
BUYMonsanto CompanyMON-N110.500Good company and well run. Agricultural industry has moved up because of a push from Asia. There is a growing need for agricultural products. This company has done very well over the last little while because of that and should continue to do well.2008-01-24
BUYMicrosoftMSFT-Q33.250Reported earnings better than expected. Will do well in the upgrade cycle. The Xbox business is going to do well for them. Has a great office product. Not trading at a huge multiple. Great balance sheet. Lots of cash.2008-01-24
BUYHSBC Holdings P L CHBC-N77.080Very well run global company. More retail oriented. At these levels, it is one of the better banks to buy.2008-01-24
DON'T BUYLoblawsL-T33.250Thinks the issues with this company goes deeper. They where the prime player in the grocery business, but their competition got better. Their expansion was done in an erratic way. Has not gotten really cheap.2008-01-24
TOP PICKWolseley PLCWOS-LN14.640Global supplier of bathroom fixtures, heating, building materials, etc. Market has totally discounted the worst-case scenario. Revenues were down 10% in the US but up 17% in Europe. Very aggressive cost cutting in the US. Yield of about 4% should be safe. Generates a reasonable amount of cash flow. Trades at about 10X earnings.2008-01-24
TOP PICKBrookfield Properties Corp.BPO-N19.610One of the largest commercial property owners globally. Trades at about 25% to 28% discounted to net asset value. Trades at 10X FFO. Yield of about 3%. Management has been buying back stock aggressively.2008-01-24
TOP PICKCiscoCSCO-Q25.110One of the biggest technology companies in the world. Trading at about 15X earnings. Great balance sheet. Lots of cash. No debt. Made some very astute acquisitions. Can offer a great stream of products to customers.2008-01-24
DON'T BUYRoyal Bank of Scotland PLCRBS-N0.001Sold his holdings because of the sub prime problems. Did keep his Canadian bank stocks. Banks don't know the actual risk they have on their books because it's a moving target. Difficulty is the negative momentum that is pushing bank stocks down. Wait.2007-12-13
SELLCameco CorporationCCO-T37.100The problems here are more related to the company than they are to uranium. Feels uranium will continue to do well. Consider moving into other uranium companies. You could consider buying Uranium Participation (U-T).2007-12-13
CommentBarclays Bank PLCBCS-N43.240Caller is considering selling her holdings for a tax loss and then buying back after a month. Well run bank. Suffering from the same issues that other banks are suffering from. Earnings in the last little while we're actually quite good. In the long run they are going to do very well.2007-12-13
DON'T BUYWashington Mutual IncWM-N15.590Cut their dividends. Highly leveraged to the mortgage industry.2007-12-13
HOLDTeck Cominco Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T36.320Likes most of the fundamentals for the stock. One of the issues that he has is that they have made a couple of bad acquisitions, which has hurt the stock. Zinc, coal, their interest in the oil sands are all good things for this company. Would be an aggressive buyer at $30.2007-12-13
BUYFording Canadian Coal Trust (Inc Trust)FDG.UN-T38.760Feels metallurgical coal is going to be much higher in price. Coal assets are really great and this is one of the cheapest ways of energy.2007-12-13
BUYCorning IncGLW-N24.700The LCD business has been difficult because of competition. A good company and have some very strong parts to the company. Over the next 2 to 3 years it will do well.2007-12-13
PARTIAL BUYMerrill Lynch & Co (US)MER-N57.830Got rid of their CEO who they replaced with a man that used to run the NYSE. You'll have to wait till these things bottom out. You can start buying them slowly.2007-12-13
TOP PICKWolseley PLCWOS-LN14.8006% yield. Stock has fallen a lot because of the housing industry but they have been very astute. They held back on purchases when they saw the market collapsing and now they are back in buying smaller companies at very good prices.2007-12-13
TOP PICKBrookfield Properties Corp.BPO-N20.380Real estate. Merrill Lynch is a big tenant of theirs and thinks they will re-sign with them. Have been buying back their stock aggressively. Trades at about a 20% discount to its net asset value.2007-12-13
TOP PICKSceptre Investment Council LtdSZ-T10.200Stock fell apart when one of their key managers left to go to a hedge fund. Have grown their assets and have very good performance with their other products. Very good story at these levels. Pays a good yield.2007-12-13
DON'T BUYTalisman EnergyTLM-T18.510Have a new CEO so you have to wait to see how he does. The other thing is their international exposure. He feels the oil will continue to do well.2007-12-13
BUYICICI Bank Ltd.IBN-N66.530Indian Bank. Has done very well. If you are going to play emerging markets, a bank is a good way to do it. Not cheap and there can be some volatility. Over the long term, it's a good place to be.2007-11-01
BUYGoldman SachsGS-N240.210Has done very well and has actually bounced back from the August lows. There is lots of volatility in these companies. Good global franchise. There may be more downside but a good price.2007-11-01
BUYRogers Communcations (B)RCI.B-T47.400Has done incredibly well. Getting a lot more revenue from their existing clients. Have spent a lot of money on their network and this is coming to fruition. Will be one of the few people that will carry the iPhone next year.2007-11-01
SELLTelus CorpT-T56.600Hasn't liked the telcos, but if you have to own one, this would be it. Lots of competition on the wireless side. Trades at a lower multiple than the rest. Prefers Rogers (RCI.B-T).2007-11-01
DON'T BUYProctor & GamblePG-N68.590Good company. As a multinational, it should be helped by the fact that more than 50% of their product is sold overseas. Getting the benefit of the weaker US$. They have lots of pressures on pricing from the big discount stores that they supply to. Prefers Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N).2007-11-01
BUYJohnson & JohnsonJNJ-N64.660Not only is this a pharmaceutical company, which he likes, it is also a medical device company as well as consumer products. Very well run, good company. Cheap. Good pipeline.2007-11-01
DON'T BUYCameco CorporationCCO-T42.900One of the troubles he has with this company is the lack of visibility. Uranium prices are starting to go back up again but there is a question on when Cigar Lake will be back running. Difficult to evaluate the company.2007-11-01
TOP PICKSceptre Investment Council LtdSZ-T10.7004.5% yield. Reduced their cost structure considerably. Performance has turned around really nicely in a lot of their core products. Because they have institutional money they are in a lot of mandates to win pension fund assets.2007-11-01
TOP PICKeBay IncEBAY-Q35.000Good brand name. They have a monopoly.2007-11-01
TOP PICKBrookfield PropertiesBPO-T23.800Real estate stocks have had a really bad time this year. Numbers have shown good growth in existing properties because of increased rents on lease renewals. Strong Cdn$ helps them. Feels the office properties will continue to do well. Thinks that Merrill Lynch will extend their 5 year lease.2007-11-01
CommentHewlett-Packard CoHPQ-N51.500Have done a very good job. Have done very well with on the PC side and their printers continue to do well.2007-11-01
CommentWal-Mart Stores Inc.WMT-N43.610Has the potential to capture the benefit of the Christmas sales. Their clients are somewhere between the $25,000 and $40,000 and high gas prices hurts this segment. Have a great balance sheet. Well run.2007-09-27

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