| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | GMAC (Canada) 5.1% bond maturing Apr 30/09. These yield 10% to 11%. Part of GMAC (US) book is US residential mortgages, which hurt them and reflected on GMAC (Canada), which has no mortgages but is auto financing. Fundamentals for financing in Canada are far better. | 2008-05-28 | |
| TOP PICK | | Bank of America | BAC-N | 33.870 | Premier, global franchise. Acquired Countrywide (CFC-N) of which they fully wrote off all the mortgages. If there is a recovery in mortgages, they will benefit. Net interest margin earnings, which is key, is slightly increasing and there should be an 8% to 10% rate of return over the next 4 or 5 years including dividend. | 2008-05-28 | |
| TOP PICK | | First Capital Realty | FCR-T | 23.270 | (A Top Pick May 17/07. Up 2%.) First Capital Bond. (5.08% June 21/12.) Greatest value in the corporate bond world is real estate bonds. Getting 200 to 300 basis points over Government of Canada. | 2008-05-28 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Inflation: Cdn$ protected us from inflation. Globally, we have been in the best position. This is slowly stopping because of higher food and energy costs. Also there is a big slowdown in wage increases, which is where velocity of money increases and where wage and inflation pressures really start coming into the picture. About 60% of our consumption (furniture, technology, cars etc.) is still in deflation and will not be passed on to wage increases, so inflation should be contained. | 2008-05-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Allied Properties REIT | AP.UN-T | 21.820 | (A Top Pick May 17/07. Up 4%.) A pocket of properties that feed into the small businesses of the world. Got caught in the downwind of all the financial markets. Fantastic management. Rents that are in place look like they will increase. They will add with organic growth 8% to 10% in FFO. Still a Buy. | 2008-05-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Sceptre Investment Council Ltd | SZ-T | 9.320 | (A Top Pick May 17/07. Down 23%.) Sold about half his position at around $13. Still likes the company. | 2008-05-28 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Manufacturing: Chinese and Asian labour pool is slowly drying up because people have moved to the cities, so the free labour is much less. Wouldn't be surprised to see resurgence in manufacturing in North America in the next year or two. | 2008-05-28 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Bond Investors: Will have a tough time because 1) bond market rally was so great in the last year or two that we are at the ultimate low level and you will have to fight against that and 2) corporate spreads have blown out. Probably the only opportune area in the bond market is corporate spreads. If you believe the economy will stay whole and global growth will continue (corporate balance sheets have never been better and spreads are irrational at this time) spreads should compress and would mean prices go higher and yields go lower. That would be favourable on the bond side. | 2008-05-28 | |
| Comment | | iUnits Short Bond Index E.T.F. | XSB-T | 28.370 | If you are nervous about the bond market, this is a great instrument to get into this market. This one allows you to participate in the yield market without taking on sizable risks. An appropriate strategy if you are slightly negative on the bond market or, more importantly, you need to asset allocate your risks from equities to bonds. | 2008-05-28 | |
| Comment | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 68.700 | Basically avoided the subprime meltdown. ROE is about 18% - 20%. Have made an appropriate strategy by expanding in the US in the right way. Bank North is finished and is adding value. Thinks it will consistently outperform the other banks. Long-term hold. | 2008-05-28 | |
| BUY | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Real Return Bonds: This is a good time to buy. Believe it's up 5% - 6% year to date versus the general bond market. Returns are based on total CPI, which includes food and energy. You have to be careful, because if oil tracks down or the global economy slows you might see commodities turn over and that would affect returns. | 2008-05-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Yellow Pages Income Fund | YLO.UN-T | 10.030 | Made a couple of interesting acquisitions. Will have to go into a corporate entity and will become taxable. Dislikes the company on valuation. Bigger picture is that Internet is taking away from its mainstay product, the Yellow Pages book. (Trying to do something to go against that trend.) Personally, he wouldn’t go into Yellow Pages but would do Google or Yahoo instead. Doesn't like the business plan. Doesn't feel the 11.2% is sustainable. | 2008-05-28 | |
| BUY | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Bond ETFs: Equity market is high risk. Eventually you either have to take money off the table or allocate risks. Very cost effective way. To get an enhancement, there is a corporate bond ETF and you might get an extra 1% to 2% a year as well as some capital gains. Fees are generally low. He is bullish on the corporate bond market. Stay Canadian to avoid foreign exchange risks. | 2008-05-28 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Preferreds: They are driven by a number of issues. A taxable driven strategy because of dividends versus interest. Own outside of your RRSP as they are incredibly tax effective. Will get hurt slightly on rising interest rates. With bank stocks recovering, that will offset some of it. He prefers the high yield market rather than preferreds. | 2008-05-28 | |
| Comment | | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 135.940 | P/E on next year’s earnings is 35X and earnings are growing by 30%-35% annually. Company has proven that they are a world dominator. When you have a mandate like this, a position of world strength, it is hard not to ignore it. On a dark day, he would really look at it very seriously. | 2008-05-28 | |
| BUY | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 49.460 | His 2nd favourite bank. (Toronto Dominion (TD-T) is #1.) They didn't participate in a lot of the blow-up in the US. About 1.5X book value, which is historically cheap. Yield of 4.07%. Canadian banks now have the power of currency behind acquisition. | 2008-05-28 | |
| Comment | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 90.870 | Splitting putting the oil sands into another company and you get 2 pieces of it. Assumes the gas company will have the bigger dividend. The oil side will have the bigger growth dynamic. Probably worth $100 once you separate it. Also get to compete for capital. | 2008-05-28 | |
| Comment | | Telus Corp | T-T | 46.560 | Was a growth stock but is now a value stock. Somewhat cheap at this point with free cash flow yield of about 11%. On an Enterprise versus EBITDA basis it is very favourable at around 6X. Wireless is slowing down because of competition, especially with Spectrum. If you believe wireless is a growth story and will grow, this should do better. If you see a larger turnover of subscriber rates then it will go down. Also not on the GSM which is the main network. | 2008-04-10 | |
| BUY | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Bell Canada bonds 2016 and 2017:- Had avoided these for quite awhile but have now purchased them. About an 8% return, which is 450 over Government of Canada. If the Bell (BCE-T) deal doesn't go through the bonds will rally tremendously. If it does go through, the bonds will be soft and will sell off a little bit. Good risk/reward. | 2008-04-10 | |
| BUY | | Boardwalk REIT | BEI.UN-T | 39.030 | About 51% apartment buildings are in Alberta. Well capitalized REIT. Price has dropped a great deal. They are increasing their Alberta rents by about 10% a year. Get their funding through CMHC, whose spreads have not increased as much. | 2008-04-10 | |
| BUY | | Calloway REIT | CWT.UN-T | 20.600 | The main anchor for Wal-Mart. Excellent managers. | 2008-04-10 | |
| BUY | | Northern Property REIT | NPR.UN-T | 21.060 | Apartment buildings in Inuvik. Good managers. Have shown some good net income increases. | 2008-04-10 | |
| SELL | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 181.900 | Trading at around 40X earnings, so he has to shy away from this. It's in a fantastic spot but when something trades at 40X, it is just not sustainable. | 2008-04-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Manitoba Telecom Services | MBT-T | 39.800 | Worst child of the telecom space. Allstream acquisition has been a disaster. It is frightening that they are going to bid on Spectrum, but they have to. Great business in Manitoba but that's not satisfactory and they have to grow it by Spectrum and grow the network. Going into a crowded space. There is a threat of them cutting their dividend. | 2008-04-10 | |
| TOP PICK | | Allied Properties REIT | AP.UN-T | 20.250 | Specialize in “brick and beam”. Properties are generally in big cities like Toronto, Montreal and Winnipeg. Have done a really decent job of growing the distribution. Excellent managers. Going forward they are doing a lot more development and intensification. | 2008-04-10 | |
| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | National Bank 4.7% F/F Bond maturing Nov 2/20. In the last 8 years, he has never seen spreads and pick up of yields in financials (like this?). A lot of value in the corporate bond space. | 2008-04-10 | |
| TOP PICK | | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 42.510 | Best in class for the telecom space. Likes that they have the GSM network. Great job of growing their wireless. Cable seems to have won the TV wars against satellite. Doing fantastic with their free cash flow. | 2008-04-10 | |
| Comment | | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 47.120 | In 3 years out you will make money because the valuations and returns on capital are decent at this point in time. Prefers Toronto Dominion (TD-T) and Royal (RY-T). | 2008-04-10 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Canadian Banks: - Yields are enormous and are above 10-year rates. Earnings power is going to slow down because of the economy and the de-leveraging of the balance sheets but they are still going to make money and they're still going to grow their earnings and bottom line. They'll also slowly increase dividends. They offer some tremendous value at this point but the technicals are lousy. Some verification that this is the bottom is needed. | 2008-03-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | | CitiGroup | C-N | 19.690 | This is one that you will have to consider that they will cut their dividend further. They have to shore up their balance sheet and need equity infusion from private investors. Has a lot of exposure to the subprime market. | 2008-03-10 | |
| BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 35.730 | Likes their potential growth strategy in Asia. Their John Hancock acquisition went really well. Return on equity is fantastic. Cheaper than they were a year ago. In a lower interest rate environment, insurance companies generally do better. | 2008-03-10 | |
| TOP PICK | | Allied Properties REIT | AP.UN-T | 17.900 | Brick and beam buildings. Likes hard assets. Even though it hasn't performed well, on a relative scale it has done better than other asset classes. This is a great company that adds value to its properties. Have done a good job of increasing their distributions. | 2008-03-10 | |
| TOP PICK | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 61.560 | Likes their strategy of focusing on the retail market. Best in class. Highest return on equity. With the Commerce Bancorp (CBH-N) acquisition it will make the bank really focus on its retail operations. Trades at 2.2X book and is the only bank that increased its dividend this year. | 2008-03-10 | |
| TOP PICK | | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 38.040 | “Best in class” assets. They have the GSM. R2 growth of 7%. They don't have to spend a lot of capital expenditure. Taking market share away from the Telcos. Stock dropped on the Spectrum announcement but feels it was an overreaction. | 2008-03-10 | |
| TOP PICK | | Brookfield Properties | BPO-T | 20.750 | Own a large part of office buildings in major cities in US and Canada. Trades at a 20% discount to its NAV. Has been hurt by the financial crisis because about 50% of their tenants are in the financial industry. Trades at 11X price to FFO, which is cheap. Manhattan space has very low vacancy rates and Merrill Lynch has confirmed they will be staying. | 2008-02-05 | |
| TOP PICK | | RioCan Real Estate Investment | REI.UN-T | 21.250 | Largest landlord in Canada and anchored by large stable tenants. Cheap, relative to the last couple of years. Also have green development, which adds to their bottom line. Also, because they own so much space, anyone coming up from the US would be dealing with them. Lease rollovers in the next couple of years with increased rents. | 2008-02-05 | |
| TOP PICK | | Bank of America | BAC-N | 42.370 | Will have a tough time over the next couple of months. Think they stole Countrywide in their acquisition because, it was any other time, the antitrust laws would kick in. 2 years from now they will make a lot of money. 6% dividend. | 2008-02-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Enbridge | ENB-T | 40.200 | (A Top Pick Feb 5/07. Up 9.8% including dividends.) Great margins. Terrific management. A great consistent regulated company. Interest-rate sensitive, which is positive currently. | 2008-02-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | (A Top Pick Feb 5/07. Up 4.1% total return.) First Capital Realty five-year 5.08% bonds. Real estate bonds have generally outperformed the credit market. | 2008-02-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | (A Top Pick Feb 5/07. Up 8.65%.) Government of Canada 2029 5.75% bond. Feels that real rates are coming down. Bigger believer in deflation than inflation. Was rewarded when inflation numbers were lower than both the street estimates and Bank of Canada estimates. Feels inflation rate could drop through 1% in Canada. | 2008-02-05 | |
| Comment | | TSX Group | X-T | 45.580 | Midst of a takeover with Montreal exchange (MXX-T). Because of the political situation, difficult to tell if this will actually work. CEO just left. Some market pressure because they have cut fees in order to stay competitive. Very consistent business. Volatility helps their underlying business with the extra trading revenue. Over 3% yield. | 2008-02-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | | InStorage REIT | IS.UN-T | 0.700 | Falls under the small cap REITs space, which is having a really tough time. Contemporaries in the US have had valuations dropped from 16X AFFO down to 13X. During this volatility, he would stay away from the small caps because of funding issues. Because of distribution stability he would rather up his portfolio to large-cap REITs. | 2008-02-05 | |
| BUY | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 32.320 | Because the Cigar Lake, this will be dead for a couple of years. However, there will still be the ultimate demand for uranium and this is the only play out their at reasonable levels. Good long-term assets and management. | 2008-02-05 | |
| BUY | | First Capital Realty | FCR-T | 23.180 | This one has been hit by the sector. They own outlet grocery store anchored malls. Excellent managers. He owns their bonds. Growing their bottom line with good acquisitions. They've tapped the unsecured debenture market, which allows them to get access to the funding market in the public space. We Buy on anything below this level, otherwise a Hold. | 2008-02-05 | |
| BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 36.900 | Depressed because of being in the financial sector. Has little or no exposure to subprime markets. Has expansion out to China and India. Cheap at these levels. Great free cash flow yield. Expects there will be a dividend increase. | 2008-02-05 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Bankers Acceptances: - They use the inner bank markets to set their interest rates. These are safe as long as the banking system in Canada is safe. | 2008-02-05 | |
| Comment | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 34.550 | Debt holders are saying the deal is on as they are hoping the post merger balance sheet will be very leveraged and the credit quality will drop significantly. Equity guys are saying the deal is off because of someone pulling out of the agreement. There is a judicial decision coming for the bondholders. Thinks the break-up value is around $28 so the risk/reward is in favor of the deal going through. | 2008-02-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Telus Corp | T-T | 42.700 | Problematic. Was a growth story and traded at about 6X EBITDA and about 15X earnings. Now it's a value story and the question is, is it worth it now. Would be hesitant on this as part of their biggest growth was the wireless section and they are having a lot of trouble with it. Looking for it to go lower. Would prefer it at 9X PE. | 2008-02-05 | |
| Comment | | Sceptre Investment Council Ltd | SZ-T | 9.100 | In the small cap asset management space. Small caps are being hit hard because of the liquidity issue. Also got hurt when one of their managers left to go to another firm although his fund has continued doing well if not better. No dent on the balance sheet. Have improved their costs. Thinks it will do well longer term and looking for it to recover in the next year or so. | 2008-02-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | | CitiGroup | C-N | 27.050 | Had such problems with the subprime market that they took a $17 billion write-down. Would prefer Merrill Lynch (MER-N), which has a thriving retail network. | 2008-02-05 | |
| BUY | | Great West Lifeco | GWO-T | 32.340 | Excellent management and excellent products. Probably a good Buy at this time. Likes the dynamics of ManuLife (MFC-T) a little better. | 2008-02-05 | |
| BUY | | Bank of Nova Scotia (Pref.) | BNS.PR.O-T | 25.240 | Prefers are somewhat compelling. Because of the selloff, it is trading below its Call. With the recent changes in the tax laws, a 5% yield comparable to an after-tax yield is about 7.5%. | 2008-02-05 | |
| BUY | | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 56.700 | Has gone down with the sector. Not his favourite, but it is a Canadian bank that makes a lot of money. Valuation of 8X earnings is pretty compelling. Trades about 2X Book. Canadian banks will increase their dividends and will continue to make money. | 2008-02-05 | |
| SELL | | Starbucks | SBUX-Q | 18.510 | (Market Call Minute.) Valuation is still too high. They need to cut down their non-performance stores. | 2008-02-05 | |
| HOLD | | Yellow Pages Income Fund | YLO.UN-T | 12.100 | (Market Call Minute.) Doesn't generally like it because of the technology of Google and everyone else surfing the net. Eventually people will put less advertising there. | 2008-02-05 | |
| BUY | | Bell Aliant | BA.UN-T | 27.740 | (Market Call Minute.) Has been hurt with the liquidity. Still have the landlines and a very conservative capital structure. Expect it will recover in the telco space. | 2008-02-05 | |
| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | GMAC Canada 5.10% maturing April 30,2009. GM is losing market share, but assets in GMAC Canada doesn't have residential mortgages like GMAC US. Auto finances are still pretty good. With a depreciated US$ you should see some GM market share coming back. Good risk/reward scenario. | 2007-12-28 | |
| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | National Bank 4.70% maturing Nov 2/2020. He is aggressively buying financial debt that has been hit hard. This one has been incredibly hard hit. They are 160/170 over Canada. | 2007-12-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | (A Top Past Pick Dec 19/06.) Timberwest 7% matured 10/01/07. When he picked this, it was giving him about 1.5% higher than Government of Canada. His objective on the bond side was to earn an extra spread of 150 basis points and hopefully get his money back, which he did. | 2007-12-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | (A Top Past Pick Dec 19/06.) First Capital Realty 5.08% maturing 6/21/12. This credit performed poorly, but much better relative to the lower investment grade sector. His objective is to matured this and earn 150 basis points over Government of Canada. Still likes. | 2007-12-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | (A Top Past Pick Dec 19/06.) Government of Canada 5.75% (then 4.09%) maturing 2029. This was the play on the fact that real rates and inflation rates would drop, which they have. Switched out of these into longer dated government of Canada bonds. | 2007-12-28 | |
| TOP PICK | | Brookfield Properties | BPO-T | 18.840 | Great management. Trades at about a 22% discount to its NAV and is growing its FFO. Its biggest problem is its ownership of New York office buildings. The biggest risk is that Merrill Lynch might not renew its lease, but that is only 4% of its rental revenue. | 2007-12-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | H&R Real Estate Inv Trust | HR.UN-T | 19.350 | Diversified REIT that deals mostly with offices in Canada and US. Really rough go the last couple of quarters. One of their biggest risks is the new Encana building in Calgary. Have locked in rental agreements but not the refinancing side, so are dealing with funding issues. Would prefer RioCan (REI.UN-T) or others. | 2007-12-28 | |
| Comment | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 39.500 | Arbitrages play based on it being taken out at $42.75. Two risks. 1) Bondholders have been hard done by and are in the courts now trying to redeem their bonds. 2) Have to go through regulatory authorities. Chances are, it will go through and return would be about 8%-9%, which annualized would be about 30%. | 2007-12-28 | |
| BUY | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 50.800 | Has a vibrant retail network. Exposure to the capital markets is not as high as the other banks. Didn't get caught too much with the subprime issue. | 2007-12-28 | |
| BUY | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 69.120 | In a fantastic position during the subprime issue as they had no exposure. The only negative for them is that they bought Commerce Bank in the US and own Bank North so there is execution risk. Have a fantastic retail network. Strong capital ratios. Also have 49% ownership in TD Waterhouse and Ameritrade. | 2007-12-28 | |
| Comment | | Artis Real Estate Investment Trust | AX.UN-T | 15.030 | Specialized in retail with most of their assets in Alberta and are right in the sweet spot in Alberta's economy. Because of the credit blow out, institutions generally migrate to large cap REITs and avoid small caps. | 2007-12-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Dundee REIT | D.UN-T | 33.310 | Transaction with GE financing was very convoluted. Also, 15% of the capital gain is still being shoved over to the management arm, a 3rd party provider of management services for them. Last quarter had good guidance as well as good growth in FFO. Because of the credit blow out, institutions generally migrate to large cap REITs and avoid small caps. | 2007-12-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Telus Corp | T-T | 49.540 | Defined as a growth stock but has now been smashed into a value stock. Had a bad year on price performance. Starting to lose market share with a negative impact on their wireless. Also, Spectrum auction is about to come on is going to create more competition. Landlines have deteriorated. Will have to spend a lot of money to keep clients. If buying, try to get it in the low $40's. | 2007-12-28 | |
| BUY | | Tim Hortons | THI-T | 36.950 | Long line-ups in the morning are fully valued in the stock. Execution is twofold. 1) Solid menu, which it is and 2) execution in the US is required to give it great growth. Coffee sales in the US are less per store than in Canada. Doesn't think you'll go wrong by owning the stock. | 2007-12-28 | |
| BUY | | Rothmans Inc | ROC-T | 25.350 | A great dividend story. Buying back shares. Fantastic cash flow growth. If you're nervous about the market, this is a great company to own. Their private label brands were hurting their premium brands and margins were suffering. They turned that around and cut their costs and increased dividends. | 2007-12-28 | |
| BUY | | Northern Property REIT | NPR.UN-T | 21.600 | Likes this one even though it has not performed well. Specialty REIT that focuses on Northern properties. Also investing in seniors housing, which adds to their Funds From Operations. Were hurt by energy costs but have cut costs. | 2007-12-28 | |
| BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 40.100 | Likes their China exposure. | 2007-12-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Apartment Properties | CAR.UN-T | 16.030 | Focused exclusively in the greater Toronto area. Vacancy rates, rent controls and condominium competition have created problems. Prefers Boardwalk (BEI.UN-T), which has 50% of their apartments in Alberta. | 2007-12-28 | |
| BUY | | Brookfield Asset Management (A) | BAM.A-T | 35.090 | (Market Call Minute.) Focused in apartments and offices in Brazil. Terrific management. | 2007-12-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Public Storage Canadian Properties | PUB-T | 19.750 | (Market Call Minute.) That space in the sector has been really hurt because the credit market has been seized up. Will take a long time. | 2007-12-28 | |
| HOLD | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 50.310 | (Market Call Minute.) A great bank. Didn't get caught too hard. Will take a while for it to go up. | 2007-12-28 | |
| Comment | | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 84.310 | This bank is always getting hammered. There is a perception that you just can't trust their trading desk. They were one of the underwriters for the subprime market. It seems to be always one thing after another. | 2007-11-21 | |
| BUY | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 49.230 | This one has performed the best out of the 5. Has exposure to the Latin American market and has done an amazing job there. Tremendously cheap and even though there is a lots of unknowns out there, this is a good time to get involved. Also, the interest curve is about to normalize which helps the banking sector. | 2007-11-21 | |
| BUY | | Bank of America | BAC-N | 42.140 | Trades at a crazy 1.4X Book Value. A fantastic global bank. Technicals indicate that if it breaks $42, it will probably go down to $40 but probably no further. | 2007-11-21 | |
| HOLD | | Calloway REIT | CWT.UN-T | 22.200 | The REIT market has had a really bad year. Anchors are almost all Wal-Mart. Thinks REITs will either be flat or start going up in value. The only issue is that it will be hard for them to grow by buying property. | 2007-11-21 | |
| BUY | | RioCan Real Estate Investment | REI.UN-T | 21.310 | Suffering from the sector weakness. He considers this Best in Class. Good creative management. Leases are coming due so they will have a healthy bump up of rents. | 2007-11-21 | |
| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | National Bank 4.7% bond maturing Nov 2/20. Will probably be called in 2015. For the first time, you are having bank bonds giving you value. | 2007-11-21 | |
| TOP PICK | | Allied Properties REIT | AP.UN-T | 21.050 | Specialize in the old warehouse buildings in Montreal, Toronto and Winnipeg. They are great developers of these properties. As they get bigger, they could get taken out by a pension plan, et cetera. | 2007-11-21 | |
| TOP PICK | | Sceptre Investment Council Ltd | SZ-T | 9.500 | Great dividend yield. Dropped recently because one of the top small-cap managers left. Has not seen any redemptions from their fund and the performance has actually gotten better. Trades at a 12 X multiple. They're an institution money manager and their performances all through their offering are very good. | 2007-11-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | | George Weston Ltd. | WN-T | 53.250 | Got hurt because it came out with lower earnings, based mostly on Loblaws, which is having terrific troubles with its margins, restructuring. Could go lower. 2.7% dividend. | 2007-11-21 | |
| TOP PICK | | RioCan Real Estate Investment | REI.UN-T | 25.400 | REIT market hasn't done anything. This one has grown into its valuation. Good valuation. Trades at a discount to its NAV. Trades at around 14X AFFO. Largest outdoor shopping mall centres giving them economies of scale. Going into lease rollovers, which will lift growth 5% to 6%. Have a great land bank. | 2007-10-03 | |
| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | National Bank 4.7% Bond maturing Nov 2/15. Usually doesn't like bank debt, but bank that has just recently widened giving him 160 basis points over Government of Canada. | 2007-10-03 | |
| TOP PICK | | Leon's Furniture | LNF-T | 13.000 | A fantastic company. One of the few companies that does incredibly well with the strong Cdn$ because 60% of their purchasing power is buying in the US and China. Margins should increase. Trades at about 14X earnings. 2.2% yield. | 2007-10-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Government of Canada 5.75% Bond 2029. This was a long-term pick. Sold his holdings about 4 months ago and just got back into it again. Cdn$ is so strong, it is going to have to impact the economy and inflation numbers so this is a good place to go. | 2007-10-03 | |
| Comment | | Boardwalk REIT | BEI.UN-T | 46.550 | About 53% of their apartments is in Alberta, which gave them a tremendous uplift in the last 2 years. REITs hit a brick wall in February. All the price appreciation from Alberta is now priced in. Alberta's economy could cool down because of the royalty discussions. | 2007-10-03 | |
| Comment | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 71.110 | Just acquired Commerce Bank, a fantastic retail franchise, in the US. Expensive, but good. Will be dilutive to their earnings, which is why the stock came off 4% yesterday. | 2007-10-03 | |
| BUY | | Primaris Retail REIT | PMZ.UN-T | 18.850 | Fairly large REIT that focuses on the middle market such as closed shopping malls. Trades reasonably at about 14X 2008 AFFO cash flow. Management is Oxford Properties, a very seasoned, great management company. Organic growth has done really well. 6.3% yield. | 2007-10-03 | |
| Comment | | Canadian Apartment Properties | CAR.UN-T | 19.390 | A lot of their portfolios are in the greater Toronto area and are still dealing with vacancy rates that are too high so they can’t increase rental rates. | 2007-10-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Sceptre Investment Council Ltd | SZ-T | 10.440 | (A Top Pick Nov 7/06. Up 24.2%.) Great asset manager. They are more in the institution pension market. Great cash flow company. Still a Buy. | 2007-10-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Ford Credit 4.375% maturing March/08, the financial arm of Ford. Getting closer to maturity and he is slightly uneasy with it because of poor fundamentals. | 2007-10-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Holloway Lodging REIT | HLR.UN-T | 4.460 | The lodging sector is having a real hard time. If there is anything in the REIT market that he would avoid, it is the lodging sector. US tourists are not coming up here. | 2007-10-03 | |
| BUY | | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 37.120 | Utilities really haven't done much over the last 3 or 4 months. In the volatile situations, people tend to go to utilities, so it is a safe haven. Consistent dividends and have lowered their costs. | 2007-10-03 | |
| BUY | | First Capital Realty | FCR-T | 25.820 | Basically community based shopping centres. Has traded off in the last year. Trades at about 4% discount to its NAV. Wouldn't be surprised to see growth in their distributions. | 2007-10-03 | |
| BUY | | Sherrit | S-T | 15.410 | Likes their assets in Saskatchewan. Own the largest coal deposits in Canada. Have oil/gas interests in Cuba, which gives it a discount to its NAV. The cheapest mining stock out there. | 2007-10-03 | |
