STOCKCHASE

56.170

Thinks it's on the recovery road right now. If earnings come in around $6 or better, it looks inordinately cheap.

2010-10-26

TOP PICK

Just Energy Group

JE-T

15.420

(A Top Pick Aug 27/09. Up 35.38%.) Paying $1.24 distribution right now and will maintain that when they convert to a corporation Jan 1st. Have had 27 consecutive distribution increases and expects this to continue in 2012. Cash flow should grow 5%-10% annually. Low debt.

2010-10-26

BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

33.350

Has been disappointing over the last while. Had some operational difficulties. His target is $40 over the next 18 months.

2010-10-26

HOLD

45.930

Tremendous recovery on the strength of strong coal results as well as copper prices. Potential for further dividend increases.

2010-10-26

BUY

Thomson Reuters Corp

TRI-T

39.780

Likes the long-term story. Strong free cash flow growth. Likely to increase dividends over time. 3% yield.

2010-10-26

PAST TOP PICK

Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A)

45.280

(A Top Pick Aug 27/09. Up 47.39%.) Still a Hold.

2010-10-26

TOP PICK

CTC.A-T

58.370

Gone sideways for the last while. Likes it in the retail space because longer-term target is to increase earnings 10% annually. Free cash flow will be growing very nicely because have been refurbishing stores for 15 years and CapX will be half that annual rate. 1.4% yield.

2010-10-26

BUY

43.900

GoldCorp (G-T) or Barrick (ABX-T)? Barrick is cheaper on a historical valuation basis but got hit on Australia’s plan to impose 40% on profits. 17% of its revenue is from Australia. He is looking for 30% growth in cash flow over the next 3 years.

2010-05-04

BUY

Bonavista Energy Corp

BNP-T

24.590

There are several oil/gas trusts that will be hybrids when they convert with very decent dividends and growth vehicles. This is one of them.

2010-05-04

Comment

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

76.950

One of the companies that will perform best amongst the producers. Getting their debt paid down.

2010-05-04

TOP PICK

Enerplus Corp

ERF-T

24.800

When it converts to a corporation it will be a hybrid with very decent dividends. He can see 5%-6% dividend over the next 3-5 years and grow their operations at about the same amount assuming $75-$85 oil prices.

2010-05-04

PAST TOP PICK

H&R Real Estate Inv Trust

28.080

(A Top Pick Apr 16/09. Up 27.24%.)

2010-05-04

Comment

Goldcorp Inc

G-T

43.860

2010-05-04

BUY

HR.UN-T

17.170

Good price and he can see good distribution increases over the next couple of years.

2010-05-04

HOLD

17.950

Results have been disappointing over the last few quarters. Will be coming out with new results this week. In the doghouse at the moment. Earnings are hard to project.

2010-05-04

BUY

70.870

Fairly good chance it'll earn in the $6 area next year and if it gets back to the 15X multiple you are looking at a $90 target. Selling at a much lower historical PE ratio than it has.

2010-05-04

DON'T BUY

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

35.600

Had traded between $42 and $44 because of fears of what might happen in Ontario. Has since taken a big drop to the $35-$36 area. There is a fear it will spread to other provinces so suspects it will be stuck in this range for a while. Dead money for the next several months.

2010-05-04

BUY

Transalta Corp

TA-T

20.470

Energy producer with coal power being their major source. Should earn in the area of $1.25 this year and possibly $1.40 next. Very healthy dividend of over 5% giving a double-digit return. Decent entry point.

2010-05-04

BUY on WEAKNESS

37.250

His buy target is in the $33-$34 area with an upside target of $47-$48.

2010-05-04

PAST TOP PICK

37.530

(A Top Pick Apr 16/09. Up 28.74%.)

2010-05-04

BUY

Baytex Energy Corp

BTE-T

33.830

There are several oil/gas trusts that will be hybrids when they convert with very decent dividends and growth vehicles. This is one of them.

2010-05-04

PAST TOP PICK

Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A)

40.820

(A Top Pick Apr 16/09. Up 56.19%.) Recently sold this. Had a tremendous move and became pretty rich. Prefers H & R (HR.UN-T).

2010-05-04

TOP PICK

CTC.A-T

54.880

10% annual earnings growth in the next 5 years is very achievable. Free cash flow will be fairly significant because of upgrading of stores in the last 10 years so he’s looking for dividend increases. Expecting 10%-12% returns.

2010-05-04

TOP PICK

Franco-Nevada Corp.

FNV-T

28.850

Because of past deals, they should have growth of about 40% in cash flows over the next couple of years. Have significant amounts of cash and credit lines, which he expects will result in another deal.

2010-05-04

TOP PICK

43.520

This will be the “go to” name in the gold industry. Largest in the world producing 7.5 million ounces a year and has a good growth profile. Cash flow multiple looks very reasonable.

2009-12-09

DON'T BUY

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

4.510

In flatish mode over the next year to 18 months. Order book is pretty good and increasing on the transportation end but is more for 2-3 years down the road. Aerospace offsets this.

2009-12-09

TOP PICK

Brookfield Properties

BPO-T

12.140

Has been penalized because of debt coming due in 2011 related to the Trizac acquisition a few years ago as well as the expiry of the Merrill Lynch lease in New York. Did a big equity issue and are very liquid currently. Almost 5% yield. Cash flow will grow 4%-5% in the next year.

2009-12-09

BUY on WEAKNESS

Canadian National R.R.

CNR-T

58.000

Looking for further weakness in order to buy.

2009-12-09

BUY on WEAKNESS

Canadian Pacific Rail

CP-T

55.610

Likes the long-term outlook very much because there is the potential for them to double earnings from $2.70 to over $5 over a 5-year period. Near-term look for further weakness.

2009-12-09

PAST TOP PICK

H&R Real Estate Inv Trust

27.140

(A Top Pick Apr 16/09. Up 24.56%.) Still a Hold.

2009-12-09

TOP PICK

HR.UN-T

13.450

Made a major bet on the Bow office building in Calgary, which bit them when it wasn't properly financed. Still suffering from valuation on the overhang. Once cash flow starts coming in 2012 there will be a hefty rise in distributions which will give you 9%-10% on today's prices.

2009-12-09

Comment

17.490

Have guided that normalized earnings would be $1.85 per share making it under 10X earnings for the next year. You have to be patient. Expecting a cloud will continue to hang over the stock for a while.

2009-12-09

HOLD

Sunlife Financial

SLF-T

28.120

Have been giving guidance to investors as to what normalized earnings might be which has been very hard for analysts to figure out. Thinks the dividend is safe. A bit of a cloud hanging over the industry in terms of capital requirements and expect the stock will go sideways until this is clarified.

2009-12-09

BUY

Thomson Reuters Corp

TRI-T

33.930

Very good run earlier in the year but sideways for the last 3 months. Likes long-term prospects. Generates a lot of free cash flow. Expects increasing dividends over time.

2009-12-09

BUY

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

34.530

Excellent outlook. About 85% of CapX program is regulated or long-term contracts so has a lot of confidence in earnings. Looking for growth of about 7%-9% a year over the next 5 years and with dividend growth at least 7% gives 11%-13% growth at least.

2009-12-09

PAST TOP PICK

34.080

(A Top Pick Apr 16/09. Up 19.32%.) Still a Buy.

2009-12-09

PAST TOP PICK

37.000

(A Top Pick Apr 16/09. Up 39.99%.) Still a Hold.

2009-12-09

Comment

0.020

Gold. Had a tremendous run but is currently pulling back but he sees upward pressure on it. As long as deficits are very large among developing nations, people will be looking for a currency play. Gold companies are selling at very cheap multiples at current gold prices. His 3 principles are Barrick (ABX-T), Goldcorp (G-T) and Silver Wheaton (SLW-T) (precious metals).

2009-12-09

DON'T BUY

0.020

Natural gas. Not very optimistic in the short term. A lot depends on the winter in the short term. Would prefer oily names right now.

2009-12-09

BUY

Silver Wheaton

SLW-T

16.230

Playing silvers through this company. Very interesting model. Huge increase in production with a fixed cost of about $4 a pound. Should increase production 2.5 times over the next 3-4 years.

2009-12-09

TOP PICK

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

26.320

Starting to show better than anticipated results. Very good free cash flow.

2009-08-27

BUY

Brookfield Properties

BPO-T

12.240

Big concern is major debt repayment coming due 2011. Also concerns about US real estate market, especially offices. Merrill Lynch lease comes up for renewal in 2012. Did an equity financing which mitigates the risk. Very cheap and you will have to be patient.

2009-08-27

PAST TOP PICK

25.400

(A Top Pick Apr 16/09. Down 2.29%.)

2009-08-27

BUY

Imperial Oil

IMO-T

39.420

One of the class acts in the integrated space. Tremendous converters of capital to cash flow and profit. Average annual returns over the last 25 years has been above 13% a year including dividends and capital gains.

2009-08-27

BUY on WEAKNESS

22.360

Supports their decision to cut dividends as they are now building capital at the rate of $800 million extra, as they want to get their investment grade ratings back to previous levels. Would look to buy this at $20 or below.

2009-08-27

PARTIAL BUY

79.920

Has produced better-than-expected results over the last couple of quarters. Trading range is between the $70's and $130 level. You could start buying it and adding to your position on weakness.

2009-08-27

TOP PICK

Just Energy Group

JE-T

12.780

Sells and distributes gas on a fixed price basis. Expanding into the US. Very good scope for growth in the US. Can see cash flow growth of 10%-15% a year. Expecting their debt will be gone in the next couple of years. 9.7% yield.

2009-08-27

BUY on WEAKNESS

Sunlife Financial

SLF-T

32.380

This will participate in a market correction, which he is expecting. Some concern because the dividend payout ratio is close to 50%. Normalized earnings in the current cycle are about $3 and he would look to buy it around $30 or below. Likes some of their exposure to India.

2009-08-27

BUY on WEAKNESS

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

34.260

Could fall below the $30 mark but not if oil holds at the $70 level. Great buy at $30 or below.

2009-08-27

BUY on WEAKNESS

27.180

Has had an exceptionally strong recovery. Did a good job of mitigating the debt risks. Copper prices have recovered and coal prices are set for the next year. Try for an entry point in the low to mid-$20’s.

2009-08-27

TOP PICK

34.110

(A Top Pick April 16/09. Down 19.51%.) Yield of close to 6%. Long-term growth rate is going to be in the mid-single digit area. This, along with the 6% dividend, you should get 11%-13% average annual return.

2009-08-27

BUY

Westjet Airlines

WJA-T

12.150

Airline business has been very difficult however this company stands out on a global basis in terms of its profitability. Well run. Has about 37% of the Canadian market currently and is going up. Long-term growth plans are excellent.

2009-08-27

PAST TOP PICK

36.480

(A Top Pick Apr 16/09. Up 0.62%.) Think it can get into the $40's.

2009-08-27

BUY

33.930

The most defensive of the major golds. You could start to accumulate it at these levels for a 2-3 year hold. The value looks the best amongst the golds.

2009-04-16

Comment

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

39.670

Thinks they will hold their dividend for the next year, but it is the most susceptible of the Canadian banks if the credit crisis continues.

2009-04-16

DON'T BUY

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

55.780

Responded quickly when the industry started to deteriorate last year, but valuations are a bit rich. Prefers SU-T

2009-04-16

TOP PICK

22.570

Predictable earnings and growth over time. Yield 4.6%. They see double-digit returns. Risk would be if interest rates got into double digits. It’s a low risk investment.

2009-04-16

WAIT

Kinross Gold

K-T

16.950

They got a 10% interest in the best diamond mine in the world at a very good discount, but this is an investment, rather than a new departure in terms of strategy. Thinks they are good long term but people will take money out of gold in the short term.

2009-04-16

BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

30.690

Better value than CNQ. He is assuming the PCA merger will go through.

2009-04-16

DON'T BUY

10.800

There are a lot of uncertainties regarding their debt but some things are starting to fall into place through asset sales. Have a debt payment coming due in October and will have to sell more assets. Copper prices are moving in their favour. Thinks they will fight their way through it. It’s in the upper end of its trading range.

2009-04-16

SELL ON STRENGTH

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

15.220

Not as likely as others for a take-over. Would start to pare back a position.

2009-04-16

TOP PICK

30.550

6.6% dividend. Came out with a warning about wireless numbers for first quarter. Can grow earnings 5% over the next 3-5 years. Multiple is very depressed right now compared to MBT or BCE. You are looking at a 11-12% return. Dividend is sustainable.

2009-04-16

TOP PICK

27.670

Ideal company for these uncertain times. Largest apartment REIT across the country. People still need to live somewhere. Nice yield. Management owns 30% of it and don’t pay themselves salaries. Financing is all CMHC guaranteed.

2009-04-16

Comment

0.020

Jury is still out as to whether this is the start of a new bull market. More confidence in the banking sector in Canada. GDP will be in negative territory for the balance of the year (US). Don’t chance stocks that have quadrupled off their lows. Look for quality stocks with a predictable dividend.

2009-04-16

DON'T BUY

Bell Aliant

BA-T

24.280

Paying almost 12%, but when it becomes a corporation in 2011 they are likely to cut dividend to about 2-1/4%. P/E ratio is a bit high – there is some capital risk.

2009-04-16

TOP PICK

MacDonald Dettwiler & Assoc.

33.750

Very bullish on gold. Has excellent internal growth through a number of different projects. Valuations on a price to cash flow basis are extremely attractive. You will have to be patient with this.

2007-08-29

DON'T BUY

AbitibiBowater Inc.

ABH-T (Dead)

2.090

Would avoid this stock at these levels. Have extremely high debt. Outlook for newsprint is not good and consumption has been declining in North America on a regular basis. Cdn$ is definitely hurting them.

2007-08-29

Comment

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

65.400

Just disclosed they are having continual difficulties getting their natural gas commodities trade book down to comfortable levels and are absorbing further losses.

2007-08-29

BUY on WEAKNESS

Encana Corp

ECA-T

62.330

The difficulty with natural gas price is it is partially weather driven and US drilling has not slowed down as expected. Likes the stock on weakness. Try to buy 10%-15% below its current price.

2007-08-29

BUY

Goldcorp Inc

G-T

24.690

Has been quite suppressed by some production shortfalls and cost overruns, but he likes the gold area generally. One of the few commodities that will show upside over the next year. If you can be patient, this could be a very rewarding investment over th

2007-08-29

BUY on WEAKNESS

Kinross Gold

K-T

12.280

Has a good growth profile and looks like very good value at this level. If there is a US recession, gold and gold stocks should handily outperform the market.

2007-08-29

TOP PICK

MDA-T

48.000

Electronic software. Best known for its defence division with high revenues. Also involved in the US in real estate and insurance electronically. In the UK with its HIPS program. Tremendous history of growing earnings. Expects them to continue to grow at

2007-08-29

HOLD

40.860

He is looking to buy this in the mid-$30, but if it doesn't get there he will buy it anyway. Very well run company. Should grow at 15%-18% a year over the next number of years.

2007-08-29

PARTIAL BUY

Petro-Canada

PCA-T

53.370

Growth profile is finally coming through quite well. Cheap on a numerical basis. Feels you will be up to get this below $50.

2007-08-29

HOLD

86.800

It's a value manager it is very hard to buy a stock like this that has a very elevated PE multiple. He would love to buy it with the type of growth profile he sees in it but it would have to be done at a much more reasonable multiple.

2007-08-29

TOP PICK

Just Energy Group

JE-T

14.940

Good track record with increasing its cash flow every year at 15% plus. Has no debt. When it converts to a corporation in 2010, it should be a very attractive equity. Expects it to double over the next 4-5 years.

2007-08-29

Comment

Yamana Gold Inc.

YRI-T

11.330

In the process of a 3 way combination with Northern Orion (NNO-T) and Meridian (MNG-T) and his company is an advisor on this transaction so he is not allowed to speak on this.

2007-08-29

WAIT

0.020

Banks: - Sees 15% downside on banks. The most profitable and well run banks in the world. Expect their 4th quarter will be pretty much break even.

2007-08-29

Comment